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Michael Gettys -- OF San Diego


fawkes_mulder

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This is a guy I've been following since 2014. Kiley McDaniel over at fangraphs raved about his raw tools at the end of 2014.

 

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Gettys is one of the most electrifying prospects in the minors. He has plus plus bat speed, running speed and arm strength to go with above average raw power and defensive ability; he has also hit 95 mph with an above average curveball on the mound. Gettys was very easy to identify as a top prep prospect but he slipped to the 2nd round last summer because of his struggles with the bat. The bat speed gives him big margin for error, but Gettys has had trouble identifying spin at times, though it appears to be influenced by him pressing and guessing from draft year pressure, rather than a struggle with a true vision/identification issue.

 

The finish to his swing is abrupt, which the Padres think they can slowly fix and keep him in the zone longer; this stance is helped by their raves about his makeup. Gettys also appeared to struggle versus poor high school pitching and then things would snowball, all coming from the disrupted timing of his huge bat speed; that’s common for elite prep bats, with recent examples like Clint Frazier and Addison Russell. If Gettys just adopts a contact-only approach and is only a 30 bat, he still may have enough value to be a big league backup due to his speed and defense, but the ceiling is enormous and Gettys draws physical comparisons to Mike Trout. He impressed offensively and defensively after signing and has the tools to shoot up lists next year with a big full season debut.

 

IMO Kiley McDaniel was a great evaluator with fangraphs and I respect his opinion. But he was usually conservative if he ever made comps. A comp to Mike Trout is exceptionally high praise from Kiley. I don't remember Kiley ever giving hyped prospects (e.g. Giolito) higher than a FV 70, whereas I've seen 80s on BP for Gio. Kiley's tout went a long way to keeping Gettys on my radar.

 

True to form, in 2015, Gettys struggled with the hit tool, slashing .231/.271/.346 in A Ball.


This year, he's back in A Ball, but has improved considerably in every facet.

 

I was skeptical at first, but it's mid June and Michael Gettys is still hitting well. I think at this rate he might crack the midseason lists.

 

Currently slashing .322/.388/.443, 3 HR, 23 SB.

 

Electrifying....plus plus bat speed, plus plus running speed, above average raw power...and can potentially hit? Sign me up.

 

Here's some notes from the field, courtesy of James Fisher, c. May 17, 2016.

 

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Gettys has a strong, physical football body type with strength throughout, sloped shoulders and some projection remaining. He has impressive physical tools including at least plus speed and plus-plus arm in center. [He projects to be a] plus defender in center. At the plate, Gettys showcases premium bat speed that generates above-average raw power from a slightly leveraged swing. He hits from an even stance with his hands at his shoulder and a touch of downward movement with the hands that serves as his trigger. While he shows the ability to catch up with velocity, his pitch recognition is a work in progress with plenty of swing and miss in the zone and out. He will have to improve his plate discipline and in his second try in Fort Wayne the strikeout rate shows no signs of slowing down.

 

At the time of that blurb, he was batting .281 and striking out 27.74% of the time. As if hearing the criticism, since then, Gettys has raised his batting average to .322 and lowered his K% to 24.2%.

 

This is potentially a true breakout...buy now before he gets mainstream hype from the major publications.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

@fawkes_mulder is I'm sure.

 

I mean no prospect is a guarantee but be looks like a guy to be on the watch for still. One AFL doesn't mean too much 

The only thing interesting about this guy is that the Padres high A home ball park is one the worst places for right handed hitters to hit for power. The power ally in that stadium is 404 feet.. Not CF or the foul poles..the power ally..  The low A ball park also represses RHH power(Keep this info stashed when valuating Luis Urias, and Framel Reyes also)..  I wouldn't be surprised by a power spike in AA...but I also wouldn't be surprised if he is completely worthless in AA. Given how awful of a pure hitter he is at this stage.

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9 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

The only thing interesting about this guy is that the Padres high A home ball park is one the worst places for right handed hitters to hit for power. The power ally in that stadium is 404 feet.. Not CF or the foul poles..the power ally..

 

Didn't he hit pretty well in High A?

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On 12/23/2016 at 10:46 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Didn't he hit pretty well in High A?

off the back of a 400+ BABIP? Yeah..  He's got the tools to achieve above average BABIP marks at the MLB level if he not be so bad..but the reports from the AFL don't paint a pretty picture of him swing at balls in the dirt often and nil for ability to read breaking balls..

 

He's got youth on his side for time to develop. But this current version of probably isn't ready against the more advanced arms of AA.  Those AFL numbers may be small sample..but their is real reason he for those struggles.

 

Still only 21. So its not a huge deal yet, especially for the upside payoff.. He's lotto ticket in the truest sense of the word..

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32 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

off the back of a 400+ BABIP? Yeah..  He's got the tools to achieve above average BABIP marks at the MLB level if he not be so bad..but the reports from the AFL don't paint a pretty picture of him swing at balls in the dirt often and nil for ability to read breaking balls..

 

He's got youth on his side for time to develop. But this current version of probably isn't ready against the more advanced arms of AA.  Those AFL numbers may be small sample..but their is real reason he for those struggles.

 

Still only 21. So its not a huge deal yet, especially for the upside payoff.. He's lotto ticket in the truest sense of the word..

 

He's no Kris Bryant, but Bryant had multiple .400 BABIP stops along the way in the minors. Happens a lot in the minors.  Gettys had it in 2 different leagues last season.  He surely needs to cut down on strikeouts and work on some things. 

 

My only real point is a 400 BABIP in the minors happens a lot more than you think, and has a lot to do with bad fielders and weird parks. 

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On 12/24/2016 at 2:52 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

He's no Kris Bryant, but Bryant had multiple .400 BABIP stops along the way in the minors. Happens a lot in the minors.  Gettys had it in 2 different leagues last season.  He surely needs to cut down on strikeouts and work on some things. 

 

My only real point is a 400 BABIP in the minors happens a lot more than you think, and has a lot to do with bad fielders and weird parks. 

 

Yeah the fielders aren't as elite, there's less data on guys so tendencies aren't exploited as much.... and most of all the pitchers just aren't as good.

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On 12/24/2016 at 0:52 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

He's no Kris Bryant, but Bryant had multiple .400 BABIP stops along the way in the minors. Happens a lot in the minors.  Gettys had it in 2 different leagues last season.  He surely needs to cut down on strikeouts and work on some things. 

 

My only real point is a 400 BABIP in the minors happens a lot more than you think, and has a lot to do with bad fielders and weird parks. 

Well those things aren't things that are likely to repeat in the MLB, so while it's more common in the minors I'm not sure it's any less of a concern

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Gettys is a ceiling play. I would imagine in most leagues he is free or cheap. I managed to sell in my league in a package for MLB talent (ultimately +  some middling guys for Cutch) but that is likely a unique situation.

 

In deep leagues I still like the cost/benefit equation here. His 50th percentile outcome is probably a 4th OF/AAAA player. But the top end odds are an exciting power/speed player, 15/30+. Jonathan Villar had the same concerns about the hit tool...

 

Overall I don't think a poor AFL means that he made no progress on his hitting. It just means there is still work to do, but that is true for everyone to some degree or another.

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On 12/24/2016 at 2:52 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

He's no Kris Bryant, but Bryant had multiple .400 BABIP stops along the way in the minors. Happens a lot in the minors.  Gettys had it in 2 different leagues last season.  He surely needs to cut down on strikeouts and work on some things. 

 

My only real point is a 400 BABIP in the minors happens a lot more than you think, and has a lot to do with bad fielders and weird parks. 

of course 400 BABIPs happen a lot in the minors. I never said otherwise..but its a difference if his value as a hitter offensive value is being built off the BABIP vs BABIP adding on to a good foundation of hitting is my point  

 

Bryant wasn't an aggressive hitter, he worked the count and part of that K rate was a function of being deeper into counts, and he had a ton more in game power in the minors to build off of.  Aggressive hitters w/o the barrel control and recognition and only mediocre in game power have a low of sucess in the majors. Even with a tool shed of raw skills.  He's a prospect because of his age and upside.

 

Which is fine..but the merits of hitting are mirage right now. I'm not discounting an ability to improve, just saying he's still longer to go than comparable prospects.. The trade off of pure fantasy upside is excellent. I did say at the start i wouldn't be surprised by a power uptick this year..

 

 It would be worrisome for a good hitting prospect to have decent K zone control but lower BABIP, because it would mean he may have issues making authoritative contact..

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3 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

of course 400 BABIPs happen a lot in the minors. I never said otherwise..but its a difference if his value as a hitter offensive value is being built off the BABIP vs BABIP adding on to a good foundation of hitting is my point  

 

Bryant wasn't an aggressive hitter, he worked the count and part of that K rate was a function of being deeper into counts, and he had a ton more in game power in the minors to build off of.  Aggressive hitters w/o the barrel control and recognition and only mediocre in game power have a low of sucess in the majors. Even with a tool shed of raw skills.  He's a prospect because of his age and upside.

 

Which is fine..but the merits of hitting are mirage right now. I'm not discounting an ability to improve, just saying he's still longer to go than comparable prospects.. The trade off of pure fantasy upside is excellent. I did say at the start i wouldn't be surprised by a power uptick this year..

 

 It would be worrisome for a good hitting prospect to have decent K zone control but lower BABIP, because it would mean he may have issues making authoritative contact..

 

 

yeah Im just rolling with @fawkes_mulder on this guy being an upside play in a deeper prospect format. He has the upside to either be a very good player or at least get enough hype to be flipped at some point. I'm not one to own low ceiling guys on a fantasy farm team. Sounds like his defense could force his way into lineups down the line. 

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11 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

 

Man I hope so. Good find.  Everyone ****ting on him after the AFL has me down on him, but that's probably just a perceived value in a small window. If he's legit, now is probably a  great time to buy or pickup in deeper leagues.

 

I remain skeptical but hopeful. This one is all you if it hits. 

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  • 4 months later...

Gettys had quite a poor start to the season but is turning it around a bit as of late. Hr's in back to back games and 8 hits in the last 3.  13/7 k/bb ratio in last 10 games. K's are still a bit high but for him this season that is a major improvement. Nice to see the 7 bb's, maybe starting to come around. Or just a good weekend?

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