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Ben Simmons 2016-2017 season outlook


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32 minutes ago, Gorgeous George said:

I'll say it slowly and will repeat the operative word in the sentence.  Hopefully by doing this the point will slowly ebb it's way through the dense matter within your skull.  

 

Threat...   Threat....  THREAT....

 

 

They don't understand. 

Guys, you don't need to actually get triple doubles to be a "triple double threat".

8 points, 8 assists, 8 rebounds would be considered a threat. And that isn't even averages. If a player gets that like once a week he's a threat. If you average like 12-7-8 you're a threat. 

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Sorry, I didn't mean that Simmons will get those numbers I posted. They are irrelevant to my projections of Simmons.

Actually, I don't have projections for Simmons so I've been lurking because I'm interested in what you guys think of him.

Simply, just saying if some people think that he could be a triple double threat, other people like me (should) take it as "he can be valuable in 3 counting categories, at least". That's not saying anything about the other 5-6 categories..

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Simmons is not someone I'll be drafting.  I'd love him on my team IRL, but as a rookie I smell very high turnovers and very low percentages without much in the way of defensive stats.  Maybe .5 steals and .5 blks . . . 15/5/5 shooting less than 40% , less than one 3 per game and upwards of 4 TOs.

 

Down the line 18/10/8 seems possible.  I hope he gets more active and engaged on defense. I hope he learns to shoot.

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I'm not that high on Simmons especially in his rookie season, with the exception of 2-3 rookies last season I've made mistakes overrating some rookies. No doubt I think Simmons has a chance to be a triple double type of player, but I think his efficiency is going to be PRETTY bad most of the season and will maybe break out Post ASB so if anything you just gotta really be patient with him if you decide to draft him. I watched him in summer league and you see glimpses of vision and flashy passes but his jumper is horrible and FT%....DRAFT at your own risk, just not too high.

 

Projecting 11/6/5.5 34%fg 68%FT 0.9stl 0.5blk 3.5TO

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6 minutes ago, megaplayboy said:

I'm not that high on Simmons especially in his rookie season, with the exception of 2-3 rookies last season I've made mistakes overrating some rookies. No doubt I think Simmons has a chance to be a triple double type of player, but I think his efficiency is going to be PRETTY bad most of the season and will maybe break out Post ASB so if anything you just gotta really be patient with him if you decide to draft him. I watched him in summer league and you see glimpses of vision and flashy passes but his jumper is horrible and FT%....DRAFT at your own risk, just not too high.

 

Projecting 11/6/5.5 34%fg 68%FT 0.9stl 0.5blk 3.5TO

34%? Really?

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13 hours ago, 7Up said:

Simmons is not someone I'll be drafting.  I'd love him on my team IRL, but as a rookie I smell very high turnovers and very low percentages without much in the way of defensive stats.  Maybe .5 steals and .5 blks . . . 15/5/5 shooting less than 40% , less than one 3 per game and upwards of 4 TOs.

 

Down the line 18/10/8 seems possible.  I hope he gets more active and engaged on defense. I hope he learns to shoot.

 

Just curious what does "very high turnovers and very low percentages without much in the way of defensive stats" smell like? I was imagining a sloppy fart with a little follow through. Am I in the ball park?

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15 hours ago, megaplayboy said:

from 24%FG in the summer league (with summer league players) 34% to me makes sense. It could get better though post ASB.

Summer league stats don't matter and that's Marcus smart territory. Almost half of Marcus smarts shots were from three and he's not a very good three point shooter. 

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16 hours ago, megaplayboy said:

from 24%FG in the summer league (with summer league players) 34% to me makes sense. It could get better though post ASB.

 

Ive been critical of projected efficiency, but that FG% is way to low imo.  The guy is still 6'10 and a really solid rebounder. He will see his fair share of easy putbacks and dunks. I see 44% as his floor. Its the FT and  maybe TO i see as being the cats that could get out of control.

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33 minutes ago, jsquints said:

That line is like 15/16th round value.

Lol this is like if you need one game on Sunday and are losing by 2 steals, but only if you have another transaction so you can drop him after

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I'm avoiding him this year - expect some decent popcorn numbers with average to poor percentages and high turnovers. 

 

Hopefully he he turns out to be a great player, just can't see it happening this year - obviously a keeper league changes things but he'll suit a punt FT% / turnovers build more in 9CAT, more attractive in 8CAT (which I don't play)

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On 8/22/2016 at 8:40 AM, Johnnyapplebot said:

11/5/3 38%FG 68%FT 1.3 stls 0.5 blks 3 TO per game 10th round value

How?!

 

My guess is that you, and others that have him with such low projections are huge believers that summer league somehow matters and will tell you all you need to know about how a player is going to project for the year. For all the hard ons that people had for Stan Johnson and Aaron Gordon last year after they obliterated summer league it didn't amount to a whole lot (Aaron Gordon more so but not top 100). The biggest reason why your projections are just simply wrong is that Simmons will be given the keys to the franchise on day one and should play 30min/night easy. 

 

He averaged 12 rebounds/game and 5 assists in college, oh and a whopping .560 FG%. Hi FG% will undoubtedly be shaky to start his career but sub .400 is just ridiculous to think. 

 

12/7/4.5 44 FG% 67 FT% 1.3 stls 0.5 blks and 3 TO will be his floor this year. He passes the eye test with flying colours, has an NBA body, above average athleticism and will have opportunity to play, there's just no way he puts up low numbers.

 

We'll come back here at the end of the year and see, and I'd be shocked if he ended up averaging what you've projected him at.

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1 hour ago, Slickthenick said:

He averaged 12 rebounds/game and 5 assists in college, oh and a whopping .560 FG%. Hi FG% will undoubtedly be shaky to start his career but sub .400 is just ridiculous to think. 

 

12/7/4.5 44 FG% 67 FT% 1.3 stls 0.5 blks and 3 TO will be his floor this year. He passes the eye test with flying colours, has an NBA body, above average athleticism and will have opportunity to play, there's just no way he puts up low numbers.

56% in college because he never took a jumper.  If he wants to score in the NBA he's going to have to shoot outside the paint and that isn't going to be pretty.

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1 hour ago, 7Up said:

56% in college because he never took a jumper.  If he wants to score in the NBA he's going to have to shoot outside the paint and that isn't going to be pretty.

He's 6"10 and can run the floor like Lebron. I don't think he HAS to have a jumper right away to be able to score. 3-4 seasons from now I'm sure he'll have his jumper. But just because he allegedly doesn't have one now doesn't mean he won't be able to score. His frame, speed and feel for the game alone will be enough to average points in the low teens. And if he's scoring off of his strengths rather then taking jumpers all day his FG% isn't going to be that bad. 

 

When has a PF averaged less than .400 for a season?! Josh smith maybe? And he doesn't strike me as dumb as smith 

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On 19 August 2016 at 3:16 PM, megaplayboy said:

from 24%FG in the summer league (with summer league players) 34% to me makes sense. It could get better though post ASB.

34% doesn't make much sense. Have you seen his game. Yeh jump shot isn't good but he won't let his FG% go to crap. Worst case 40%

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To be fair he and Bron have similar offensive game and Bron's first year saw him shoot 41.7% FG  29% 3PTM and 75.4% FT.

 

However, the major difference is that Bron was taking 19 shots a game and was basically expected to attack at every opportunity.  As we all know volume and efficiency don't have a great friendship. 

 

I don't think he will take more than 12 shots from the field, that might sound low but given his bread and butter is around the rim a number of potential FGA are likely to become FTA.  Probably will hurt you in FT% this season but I really can't see him shooting below 42% from the field.

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