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My Last Keeper...WHIR for Sure!


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11 team 4 x 4 roto (HR, AVG, SB, runs produced; W, Saves, ERA, K/BB) *No WHIP or Ks

 

I'm about to win my 2nd championship in a row.  Same distance between me and 2nd place as there is between 2nd & 8th.  We can keep up to 8, losing a round for each. I have 7 locks (listed with 2017 age), looking for advice on my final keeper spot. 

 

Bryce Harper (24) OF

Mookie Betts (24) OF

Xander Bogaerts (24) SS

Paul Goldschmidt (29) 1B

Dee Gordon (29) 2B

Jonathan Villar (26) SS, 3B

Trevor Story (24) SS

 

*We start 2B, SS, and MI, so I will be able to start Dee, Bogaerts, Story, and Villar at 3B.

 

Who to keep at 8th round value?

 

Jake Arrieta (31) SP  Kept last year.  Obviously shiny W & ERA, but BBs have killed in my league.  My team K/BB is 3.49, and Arrieta's is 2.55.  He's hurting me in one of the 3 categories he's supposed to help.  Not sure if this is the "new" him.

 

Carlos Carrasco (30) SP Also kept last year.  3.12 ERA, and a 4.13 K/BB.  Solid, but not sure he's my best option.  Love the K/BB though.

 

Danny Duffy (28) SP  2.66 ERA. 5.07 K/BB.  Has been better than both Arrieta and Carrasco.  Is the break out real?

 

David Dahl (23) OF 4 HR, 3 SB in 29 games thus far.  Plays home games in Coors.  Should be a great lineup.  AVG will drop, but is he a .280/20/20 hitter already?

 

Jason Kipnis (30) 2B Stud season.  .285 20/11. But, (1) No place to start him as team is currently constructed, unless DH, and (2) he had 15 combined HRs the past 2 seasons, not sure the power surge is real.

 

Others that have provided good value and could be worth top 90 value, but don't think are options for me: Matt Carpenter, Hernan Perez, Justin Upton

 

So...

(1) Who would be your 8th keeper?

(2) With current keepers, I will murder the league in SBs.  Do I look to trade Dee in the offseason (considering I'm looking at 110+ SBs from my other keepers)?

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Arrieta has had control issues early in his career and had a breakout K/BB of 4.9 last year.  My guess is that number will never be attained again.  The outstanding numbers that he puts up in wins and era outweigh his below average K/BB this year.  My guess is that if your team K/BB is still at 3.49, you are at or near the top of that cat anyways.  You get no extra points for winning a cat by a larger margin.  With his current stats, I would love to be the guy that is able to draft him after you dump him, and if he regains his control, it will be a bonehead move not to keep him.

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If Duffy finishes strong, I think I keep him... if not it's Arrieta for me. His BB9 jumped by about 2 this year but I think he rebounds better next season. At minimum, Arrieta will have awesome trade value to swap him for someone you like better. 

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Appreciate the feedback so far. Love Duffy, but he has an injury history and I think I can redraft him as a value pick if necessary.

I think honestly I'm leaning toward Dahl right now. But having a hard time keeping 8 bats (though Rush will love it!). 

Arrieta's FIP the past 2 seasons were 2.26 and 2.35. This year 3.30. If his ERA is north of 3 AND his K/BB is south of 3, he's a huge bust for me. 

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I'd keep Jake for reasons everyone mentioned, still has big trade value as well and being a Cub should rack up wins if they keep him long term. I think is perhps could rebound next year. I guess depending on what Duffy does ROS might factor in for me, but I'd still as of now lean on keeping Arrieta. I like Dahl and Carrasco a good deal too. I think you need to factor in what your biggest position or team  need would be and if any of these guys will be trade bait or not. 

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Agreed. Keep Arietta and try and trade him. He's still got the most value of the bunch. I'd look at Dahl next but you can probably draft him next year. It's not likely you'll get Arietta if you keep Dahl. 

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I'm going against the grain here and saying Dahl. Your current keepers are insane and I think your league values hitters more than pitchers. Hitters can easily contribute in 4 categories and SP can only contribute in 3. Plus, W is so hard to predict. I like Arrieta, but his control is scary right now. I like Duffy and I think he's for real, but if I wasn't taking Dahl, I'd take Arrieta over him. Plus, Dahl plays in Colorado...seriously I've learned never to bet against a Rockies hitter.

 

For your second question, I would definitely entertain trades for Gordon. You have the speed and average. 

 

Can you help with mine? http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/603858-roster-decisions-weekly-lineup-absolutely-whir/

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