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Charles Clay 2016 Season Outlook


Br0kenB

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2nd option in the vertical passing game next to Sammy. Always had potential but could never really get healthy. Looks good and cheap for daily leagues tomorrow and Tyrod looks to be a bit more efficient in throwing it to him this year. Finally looks close to 100%. In a deep TE pool, is he a TE2/low-end TE1? I believe so.

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Clay is a talent and he's entering his prime years. T. Taylor looks for him. I've watched couple of last Bills game last season and he's the second option on the team.

I'm starting him over Barnidge this week. I like the match up this week. 
Surprised no thread on this guy.

 

Can end up being a steal

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32 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

He was a TE1 last year until Taylor got hurt.  Taylor's weakness is targeting the middle of the field (Clay's specialty), which he has worked on this offseason. Only thing limiting him is injury. 

I watch every Bills game, middle is not a weakness of Tyrod.

 

I pulled the splits to check and 74% comp with 109 rating on passes to middle of field.  Not a weakness. 

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1 hour ago, irvGotti said:

Clay is a talent and he's entering his prime years. T. Taylor looks for him. I've watched couple of last Bills game last season and he's the second option on the team.

I'm starting him over Barnidge this week. I like the match up this week. 
Surprised no thread on this guy.

 

Can end up being a steal

 

the only person ahead of barnidge on the catching totem pole is coleman - a guy who has yet to play a single NFL snap.

 

you sure you want to put clay in instead of barnidge?  Once gordon comes back, id understand.  But until then it's pretty much business as usual.

 

EDIT - additionally, RG3 loved to target his TEs always when he was in washington.  And they had lots of catching options

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Sammy Watkins had a four game stretch last season in which he didn't play in three of the games and played less than one half of the other.  In those four games, Clay enjoyed being "the guy" and capitalized to the tune of 22 catches for 216 yards; a 16-game pace of 88 catches and 864 yards.  Only Delanie Walker (94) had more than 88 catches last season amongst tight ends; only six tight ends had more than 864 yards.  So there's no doubt that in games in which Clay is the top target he can produce.  

 

But in his other nine games last season (Clay played in only 13 games), Clay had just 29 catches and 312 yards, an absolutely pitiful output of under 35 yards per game.  Five times last season Clay put up 19 yards or fewer and he scored just 3 TDs.

 

I've always been a believer in his talent but, outside of a very good 2013 season (69/759/6) he's never really done much to reward my faith.  Not even streamer worthy until and unless Watkins is scheduled to miss a game...

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As long as Sammy is healthy - I don't think Tyrod as good as he is , is an established enough pocket passer to support two successful pass catchers.  There were times when Clay was open and Tyrod forced it to Sammy regardless of coverage just to placate him.. i get feeding your WR1 but use Clay to take some of the pressure off.

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57 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

As long as Sammy is healthy - I don't think Tyrod as good as he is , is an established enough pocket passer to support two successful pass catchers.  There were times when Clay was open and Tyrod forced it to Sammy regardless of coverage just to placate him.. i get feeding your WR1 but use Clay to take some of the pressure off.

 

Buffalo only threw 29 times per game last year, second to last in the league (Minnesota).  This seriously caps the passing game's upside and supports your well-made point.

 

Buffalo was pretty efficient with those pass attempts though (7.7 YPA, 6th in the league).  

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9 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Buffalo only threw 29 times per game last year, second to last in the league (Minnesota).  This seriously caps the passing game's upside and supports your well-made point.

 

Buffalo was pretty efficient with those pass attempts though (7.7 YPA, 6th in the league).  

 

One could argue that with the loss of players on the defensive side, that the Bills might be playing from behind quite a bit. Clay isn't a bad option at TE for those that waited late. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 9/10/2016 at 8:29 PM, KennyWoo said:

Sammy Watkins had a four game stretch last season in which he didn't play in three of the games and played less than one half of the other.  In those four games, Clay enjoyed being "the guy" and capitalized to the tune of 22 catches for 216 yards; a 16-game pace of 88 catches and 864 yards.  Only Delanie Walker (94) had more than 88 catches last season amongst tight ends; only six tight ends had more than 864 yards.  So there's no doubt that in games in which Clay is the top target he can produce.  

 

But in his other nine games last season (Clay played in only 13 games), Clay had just 29 catches and 312 yards, an absolutely pitiful output of under 35 yards per game.  Five times last season Clay put up 19 yards or fewer and he scored just 3 TDs.

 

I've always been a believer in his talent but, outside of a very good 2013 season (69/759/6) he's never really done much to reward my faith.  Not even streamer worthy until and unless Watkins is scheduled to miss a game...

 

Nota bene.  Watkins to IR makes Clay a viable TE candidate for those in need.

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42 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Nota bene.  Watkins to IR makes Clay a viable TE candidate for those in need.

 

I certainly hope so, but the goose egg last week, on only two targets, gives me pause. With that being said, assuming his knee stays relatively healthy, he has to be seeing some more targets come his way, and that's all you can really ask for. The viable weapons in Buffalo are pretty limited at the moment to say the least.

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Desperation-mode for those of us with Julius out and very limited options -- firing up Clay. Hoping the Bills feature him with no real options for Tyrod.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/1/2016 at 1:39 PM, KennyWoo said:

 

Nota bene.  Watkins to IR makes Clay a viable TE candidate for those in need.

 

Numbers since this notice went out:

 

In 3 games, 15 catches for 172 yards.  16-game pace during that time: 80 catches for 917 yards.  If this guy starts mixing in some TDs he's a plug-and-play starter for those who don't have a top 7 TE in PPR in my opinion so long as Watkins is out.

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Is the Clay train pulling into End Zone Station this weekend?  Clay has had a redzone target in each of his last four starts and now Buffalo rolls into Miami.  Miami vs. tight ends thus far:

 

Week 1: Seattle combo 3/37 - note Graham (1/11) was not ramped up yet.

Week 2: Bennett 5/114/1

Week 3: Barnidge 5/66

Week 4: C.JAG Uzomah 4/45

Week 5: Walker 5/66/1

Week 6: Pittsburgh combo 3/24 - Big Ben injury certainly didn't help

 

So that's two TDs allowed and there's certainly evidence that a quality TE can do the business against Miami.  Here's another stat for you: Every TE who has gotten at least five targets against Miami has done no worse than 8.5 PPR points.  Clay has had five targets or more in three straight.  So let's plug in 8.5 as Clay's PPR floor for this week and hope for 60-70 yards and a TD.

 

Another stat: Clay faced Miami twice last season: Week 3 and Week 9.  Week 9 was a Watkins blasting of Miami so let's ignore that one (as I've posted here, Clay's value is dependent on Watkins being out).  In Week 3 (in which Watkins was hampered), Clay went 5 for 82 and a TD!

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^ doesn't hurt that Miami is his ol' stomping grounds ... bit of the ol' 'GOTCHA' revenge factor vs the ex team in play, especially down there ..

 

aside, just saw Shady sat out practice today with a tight hammy ... dunno, this could be a week Charles of Clay is really leaned on -

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