Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

2016 Breakouts & Busts- Buying or Selling in 2017


Backdoor Slider

Recommended Posts

There will be a lot of lists made about next year's 1st round, or top 25, or what have you. But you'll win & lose leagues hitting on value later. And to do that, you must decide which breakouts or busts were real, & which were a mirage. Some breakouts-

 

Jonathan Villar- 25 years old, .298 15 HR/53 SB. The average is a mirage, but I think .270/10+/40+ is in store. 

 

Hernan Perez- 25 years old. Are you paying attention?  His 600 AB pace is .281 25 HR/54 SB. Basically has been Villar since he's been playing full time. The Brewers are an aggressive team, a great source of cheap fantasy value. Think he'll still come cheap next year and be quite valuable (can he go .270/10/40?)

 
Danny Duffy- 27 years old. Former prospect broke out in a big way.   3.13 ERA & a sparkling 167 Ks/ 32 BB. Some injury concerns, but could get potential Ace at SP2 value. 
 
And for some 2016 busts:
Justin Upton- .239/22 HR/9 SB
Most of his owners hate the guy. Other than past 3 weeks, he's been awful. But is there some value to be had because his stock will drop? Good lineup, a year in new league. May be a good value pick next year. Betting he's again north of .260 with the 25 HR/10 SB.
 
 
Jason Heyward- .227 6 HR/8 SB 
This dude was already viewed as overrated in fantasy, & now has been absolutely gross. Great lineup, pedigree...I'm selling, but anyone think there's anything to see here?
 
Thoughts on these players? Any others you want to add to discussion?
Justin Turner? Eduardo Nunez? 
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 65
  • Created
  • Last Reply

^

 

Kyle Hendricks - 14-7 with a 2.07 ERA along with 0.99 WHIP with 145 Ks in 165 IP.  RW still lists him as the Cubs #5 SP.

 

soft tosser with an excellent change up.

 

expect regression in 2017 but can he avoid going all Keuchel next year?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

There will be a lot of lists made about next year's 1st round, or top 25, or what have you. But you'll win & lose leagues hitting on value later. And to do that, you must decide which breakouts or busts were real, & which were a mirage. Some breakouts-

 

Jonathan Villar- 25 years old, .298 15 HR/53 SB. The average is a mirage, but I think .270/10+/40+ is in store. 

 

Hernan Perez- 25 years old. Are you paying attention?  His 600 AB pace is .281 25 HR/54 SB. Basically has been Villar since he's been playing full time. The Brewers are an aggressive team, a great source of cheap fantasy value. Think he'll still come cheap next year and be quite valuable (can he go .270/10/40?)

 
Danny Duffy- 27 years old. Former prospect broke out in a big way.   3.13 ERA & a sparkling 167 Ks/ 32 BB. Some injury concerns, but could get potential Ace at SP2 value. 
 
And for some 2016 busts:
Justin Upton- .239/22 HR/9 SB
Most of his owners hate the guy. Other than past 3 weeks, he's been awful. But is there some value to be had because his stock will drop? Good lineup, a year in new league. May be a good value pick next year. Betting he's again north of .260 with the 25 HR/10 SB.
 
 
Jason Heyward- .227 6 HR/8 SB 
This dude was already viewed as overrated in fantasy, & now has been absolutely gross. Great lineup, pedigree...I'm selling, but anyone think there's anything to see here?
 
Thoughts on these players? Any others you want to add to discussion?
Justin Turner? Eduardo Nunez? 

Villar buy. Perez sell. duffy buy. jupton buy if not an h2h league, j-hey...meh

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jb_power said:

^

 

Kyle Hendricks - 14-7 with a 2.07 ERA along with 0.99 WHIP with 145 Ks in 165 IP.  RW still lists him as the Cubs #5 SP.

 

soft tosser with an excellent change up.

 

expect regression in 2017 but can he avoid going all Keuchel next year?

 

I think he will be a fantasy #3 next year. solid, but could be overvalued?

Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, goldbaby11 said:

Random guys that just pop in my head. I'm buying the crap out of Alex Bregman and Trea Turner. I think Eduardo Rodriguez is going to be an ace next year. 

I'm kinda over e rod, but yet, I'm intrigued. still there's so many young arms out there...

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, jb_power said:

^

 

Kyle Hendricks - 14-7 with a 2.07 ERA along with 0.99 WHIP with 145 Ks in 165 IP.  RW still lists him as the Cubs #5 SP.

 

soft tosser with an excellent change up.

 

expect regression in 2017 but can he avoid going all Keuchel next year?

 

Good one. And to a lesser extent Hammel. 

How about JA Happ? No one seems to believe, but 1 1/2 years of good production now. 

These are guys, like Quintana, that always seem to be undervalued and you'd love to have as a SP3.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

Justin Turner? 

 

He broke out three years ago and has been exactly the same for three years now. Still I don't think anyone really cares much about him.

 

some big bust outs for me were Michael Fulmer, Gary Sanchez, and Roughned Odor. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

He broke out three years ago and has been exactly the same for three years now. Still I don't think anyone really cares much about him.

 

some big bust outs for me were Michael Fulmer, Gary Sanchez, and Roughned Odor. 

Fair, but it appeared to be a fluky high average and little else (7 HR). He's 31 and this is the first year he's hit more than 20 HRs. Health has been an issue, which has kept him under the radar. 

Sanchez will be interesting. Personally I think he'll go too high. LOVE Odor and I do think Fulmer will be good value next year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Keon Broxton is another interesting player - Much as the case with Hernan Perez (who I'd be selling on), Milwaukee loves to run and Broxton has 22 steals and 35BB in 186AB's with 7HR - could he be a 15HR/50SB CF with full time at bats?   His minor league numbers never showed this, but he did have a mechanical change in his batting stance/swing before his last call-up. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Watermock said:

In light of Buxtons recent surge (albeit a small sample) how's everyone feel about him in 2017? Finally figuring it out? 

Yeah funny how much we expect from prospects these days. Will be a 23 year-old "post-hype sleeper." I do think he's figuring things out and will be great value (potential lotto ticket) next year.

Link to post
Share on other sites

must have next year- trea turner, corey seager

 

buying- urias (not sure on inn limit next year),

story- coors

yelich (power will be there but still have durability issues)

khris davis- power is legit

b ham- if price is right ill be all over him next year

 

like but dont see value with their adp next year- odor, dozier

 

not a believer- jean, villar,

Link to post
Share on other sites

well according to eric brynes who let us know a bunch of time a few nights a go he runs a 4.2 forty and a 6.3 60 which is crazy if true... thats 60-80 sb territory easy if he can hit at all which it looks like he can

 

hes on a 65 sb pace right now

 

basically turner is dee gordon with some power and think he will fall somewhere from mid 2nd to mid 3rd rd in redraft

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...