Backdoor Slider 8,295 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 There will be a lot of lists made about next year's 1st round, or top 25, or what have you. But you'll win & lose leagues hitting on value later. And to do that, you must decide which breakouts or busts were real, & which were a mirage. Some breakouts- Jonathan Villar- 25 years old, .298 15 HR/53 SB. The average is a mirage, but I think .270/10+/40+ is in store. Hernan Perez- 25 years old. Are you paying attention? His 600 AB pace is .281 25 HR/54 SB. Basically has been Villar since he's been playing full time. The Brewers are an aggressive team, a great source of cheap fantasy value. Think he'll still come cheap next year and be quite valuable (can he go .270/10/40?) Danny Duffy- 27 years old. Former prospect broke out in a big way. 3.13 ERA & a sparkling 167 Ks/ 32 BB. Some injury concerns, but could get potential Ace at SP2 value. And for some 2016 busts: Justin Upton- .239/22 HR/9 SB Most of his owners hate the guy. Other than past 3 weeks, he's been awful. But is there some value to be had because his stock will drop? Good lineup, a year in new league. May be a good value pick next year. Betting he's again north of .260 with the 25 HR/10 SB. Jason Heyward- .227 6 HR/8 SB This dude was already viewed as overrated in fantasy, & now has been absolutely gross. Great lineup, pedigree...I'm selling, but anyone think there's anything to see here? Thoughts on these players? Any others you want to add to discussion? Justin Turner? Eduardo Nunez? Link to post Share on other sites
RADickey4Prez 583 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 Selling all Dave Roberts stocks Link to post Share on other sites
jb_power 3,513 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 ^ Kyle Hendricks - 14-7 with a 2.07 ERA along with 0.99 WHIP with 145 Ks in 165 IP. RW still lists him as the Cubs #5 SP. soft tosser with an excellent change up. expect regression in 2017 but can he avoid going all Keuchel next year? Link to post Share on other sites
2ndCitySox 4,641 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said: There will be a lot of lists made about next year's 1st round, or top 25, or what have you. But you'll win & lose leagues hitting on value later. And to do that, you must decide which breakouts or busts were real, & which were a mirage. Some breakouts- Jonathan Villar- 25 years old, .298 15 HR/53 SB. The average is a mirage, but I think .270/10+/40+ is in store. Hernan Perez- 25 years old. Are you paying attention? His 600 AB pace is .281 25 HR/54 SB. Basically has been Villar since he's been playing full time. The Brewers are an aggressive team, a great source of cheap fantasy value. Think he'll still come cheap next year and be quite valuable (can he go .270/10/40?) Danny Duffy- 27 years old. Former prospect broke out in a big way. 3.13 ERA & a sparkling 167 Ks/ 32 BB. Some injury concerns, but could get potential Ace at SP2 value. And for some 2016 busts: Justin Upton- .239/22 HR/9 SB Most of his owners hate the guy. Other than past 3 weeks, he's been awful. But is there some value to be had because his stock will drop? Good lineup, a year in new league. May be a good value pick next year. Betting he's again north of .260 with the 25 HR/10 SB. Jason Heyward- .227 6 HR/8 SB This dude was already viewed as overrated in fantasy, & now has been absolutely gross. Great lineup, pedigree...I'm selling, but anyone think there's anything to see here? Thoughts on these players? Any others you want to add to discussion? Justin Turner? Eduardo Nunez? Villar buy. Perez sell. duffy buy. jupton buy if not an h2h league, j-hey...meh Link to post Share on other sites
2ndCitySox 4,641 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, jb_power said: ^ Kyle Hendricks - 14-7 with a 2.07 ERA along with 0.99 WHIP with 145 Ks in 165 IP. RW still lists him as the Cubs #5 SP. soft tosser with an excellent change up. expect regression in 2017 but can he avoid going all Keuchel next year? I think he will be a fantasy #3 next year. solid, but could be overvalued? Link to post Share on other sites
goldbaby11 221 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 Random guys that just pop in my head. I'm buying the crap out of Alex Bregman and Trea Turner. I think Eduardo Rodriguez is going to be an ace next year. Link to post Share on other sites
2ndCitySox 4,641 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 49 minutes ago, goldbaby11 said: Random guys that just pop in my head. I'm buying the crap out of Alex Bregman and Trea Turner. I think Eduardo Rodriguez is going to be an ace next year. I'm kinda over e rod, but yet, I'm intrigued. still there's so many young arms out there... Link to post Share on other sites
goldbaby11 221 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said: I'm kinda over e rod, but yet, I'm intrigued. still there's so many young arms out there... Wake me up when Ventura has been fired. Agreed he is intriguing. Link to post Share on other sites
2ndCitySox 4,641 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 7 hours ago, goldbaby11 said: Wake me up when Ventura has been fired. Agreed he is intriguing. Yeah that is longgggg overdue. Link to post Share on other sites
Backdoor Slider 8,295 Posted September 11, 2016 Author Share Posted September 11, 2016 10 hours ago, jb_power said: ^ Kyle Hendricks - 14-7 with a 2.07 ERA along with 0.99 WHIP with 145 Ks in 165 IP. RW still lists him as the Cubs #5 SP. soft tosser with an excellent change up. expect regression in 2017 but can he avoid going all Keuchel next year? Good one. And to a lesser extent Hammel. How about JA Happ? No one seems to believe, but 1 1/2 years of good production now. These are guys, like Quintana, that always seem to be undervalued and you'd love to have as a SP3. Link to post Share on other sites
merlin401 855 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 13 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said: Justin Turner? He broke out three years ago and has been exactly the same for three years now. Still I don't think anyone really cares much about him. some big bust outs for me were Michael Fulmer, Gary Sanchez, and Roughned Odor. Link to post Share on other sites
Peppy 452 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 Rick Porcello anyone??? Link to post Share on other sites
Watermock 489 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 In light of Buxtons recent surge (albeit a small sample) how's everyone feel about him in 2017? Finally figuring it out? Link to post Share on other sites
Backdoor Slider 8,295 Posted September 11, 2016 Author Share Posted September 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, merlin401 said: He broke out three years ago and has been exactly the same for three years now. Still I don't think anyone really cares much about him. some big bust outs for me were Michael Fulmer, Gary Sanchez, and Roughned Odor. Fair, but it appeared to be a fluky high average and little else (7 HR). He's 31 and this is the first year he's hit more than 20 HRs. Health has been an issue, which has kept him under the radar. Sanchez will be interesting. Personally I think he'll go too high. LOVE Odor and I do think Fulmer will be good value next year. Link to post Share on other sites
Baseball Jonze 361 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 Keon Broxton is another interesting player - Much as the case with Hernan Perez (who I'd be selling on), Milwaukee loves to run and Broxton has 22 steals and 35BB in 186AB's with 7HR - could he be a 15HR/50SB CF with full time at bats? His minor league numbers never showed this, but he did have a mechanical change in his batting stance/swing before his last call-up. Link to post Share on other sites
Backdoor Slider 8,295 Posted September 11, 2016 Author Share Posted September 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, Watermock said: In light of Buxtons recent surge (albeit a small sample) how's everyone feel about him in 2017? Finally figuring it out? Yeah funny how much we expect from prospects these days. Will be a 23 year-old "post-hype sleeper." I do think he's figuring things out and will be great value (potential lotto ticket) next year. Link to post Share on other sites
Baseball Jonze 361 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 With Turner it might depend on where he ends up as a free agent. I might sell if he stays with the Dodgers, but could buy if he ends up in a hitters park. Link to post Share on other sites
colepenhagen 3,565 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 must have next year- trea turner, corey seager buying- urias (not sure on inn limit next year), story- coors yelich (power will be there but still have durability issues) khris davis- power is legit b ham- if price is right ill be all over him next year like but dont see value with their adp next year- odor, dozier not a believer- jean, villar, Link to post Share on other sites
colepenhagen 3,565 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 22 minutes ago, Peppy said: Rick Porcello anyone??? depends on adp couldnt trust him with a top 50 pick next year Link to post Share on other sites
elrey 636 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 Buying Rich Hill, Daniel Murphy, David Dahl, Billy Hamilton, Danny Duffy and despite the small sample sizes Jose Reyes and Yulieski Gurriel. Link to post Share on other sites
worldclass 163 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 I mean, Turner and Bregman could be 1st round picks. Turner i would take over other "bigger names" I think. The two of them are carrying me to a title right now. Link to post Share on other sites
Backdoor Slider 8,295 Posted September 12, 2016 Author Share Posted September 12, 2016 1st round picks? Turner?? Turner is having a breakout season and is the 15th ranked THIRD BASEMAN on ESPN's player rater. Link to post Share on other sites
VitorSH 212 Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said: 1st round picks? Turner?? Turner is having a breakout season and is the 15th ranked THIRD BASEMAN on ESPN's player rater. I'd have to think he means Trea Turner... Link to post Share on other sites
FISH ON 492 Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 I believe he's talking about Trea Turner, but I agree, he's a great dynasty pick very early, but not for the redraft crowd. Link to post Share on other sites
colepenhagen 3,565 Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 well according to eric brynes who let us know a bunch of time a few nights a go he runs a 4.2 forty and a 6.3 60 which is crazy if true... thats 60-80 sb territory easy if he can hit at all which it looks like he can hes on a 65 sb pace right now basically turner is dee gordon with some power and think he will fall somewhere from mid 2nd to mid 3rd rd in redraft Link to post Share on other sites
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