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2016 Breakouts & Busts- Buying or Selling in 2017


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1 hour ago, markygunit said:

I'm confident Turner and Bregs will provide 1st round value at 2nd or 3rd round price in 2017.  Draft these dudes with confidence and target early.

1st round value is no easy task... you can't expect rookies to just easily get there

 

They do have the potential, but to say they're almost a lock to return 1st round value is reckless

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28 minutes ago, VitorSH said:

1st round value is no easy task... you can't expect rookies to just easily get there

 

They do have the potential, but to say they're almost a lock to return 1st round value is reckless

yea just look at harper correa sano puig (after his rookie year)

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5 minutes ago, worldclass said:

Well, I'll surely draft them higher than others would. Turner is just absurdly good. On a good offense too. 20/60 season is not out of the question. If he continues his play and boosts his walks, he's among the best players in the entire league. 

I really hope you're right, 'cause I got Trea Turner myself.

 

However, there's always an "if". It's not set in stone.

 

Not even Trout is a lock to return top10 value, but he's certainly the best bet.

 

Look at Kershaw this year, he got injured, so you can never rule that out.

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What's crazy (and awesome) about baseball is that you could miss out on all these guys next year and there will be guys who pop up on the waiver wire or get called up that can likely recreate their numbers.

 

I'll give a run down on guys I own or have owned this year (and those I didn't I'll mark with an asterisk):

 

• Villar - Love this dude but I think he'll get nabbed before I feel comfortable taking him considering I grabbed him off waivers this year. He's basically Billy Hamilton with more pop and less steals and Billy was a 4th or 5th rounder last year if I remember correctly and won't kill you in other cats. 

 

• Heyward - Trash.

 

• Upton - This due is a turd. I held him all long until he got benched for three games. I've heard people say "his stats will be there at the end of the year" on multiple occasions and he continues to prove them correct, and sure enough it'll happen (without the avg) again this year despite a god awful first few months. I drafted him in the 4th this year (roto), but I'll let someone live with that headache next year. I wouldn't draft him in H2H.

 

• Turner - Trea has impressed the hell out of me. I was expecting basically Billy Hamilton lite this year, but he has legit pop. Probably won't hit 20 dongs once pitchers stop giving him meatballs (he loves inside pitches), but I could see 15+. This might be the only dude I'd reach on from this year's rookies/breakouts. 3rd round would be decent value I think. Anything past that is great.

 

• Perez - Dude is probably gonna go undrafted assuming ESPN doesn't jack up his ADP. Worth grabbing in later rounds if he's there and also definitely worth monitoring if he starts hitting while he's on the waiver wire.

 

• Duffy - Has the benefit of an excellent defense, which is nice but I probably wouldn't draft him as high as he'll go. Remember he was grabbed from free agency. There'll be another Danny Duffy next year and you'll be glad you picked a bat instead of a pitcher.

 

• Dahl - Five tool potential and hitting in Coors in a lineup with Cargo, Arenado, Story, LeMahieu, and maybe Blackmon... yes, please. Would probably be a solid OF4 assuming he goes through those early young player slumps.

 

• Hendricks - Dude has been a rock for me this year. Another pitcher that will probably go too high for my tastes. I got burned on Keuchel this year, so I think I'll stay away unless he falls to me at a good price.

 

• Bregman - Similar feelings to Trea. Dude just hits. I think he'll go a bit later than Trea since he doesn't steal as much. I took Franco in the 7th this year and I considered that a reach (and it was. I still hate myself). I'd sure as hell love to get this dude in the 7th round next year.

 

• *Story - This dude wouldn't stop hitting. He'll be drafted high and it will probably be justified. Didn't own him this year, but he offers 5 category production in a meaty lineup and excellent ballpark. Buy, buy, buy.

 

• Cron - I think this dude is in for a top 10 year at 1B if he can stay healthy. Has flown under the radar because of his injuries so you'll probably be able to get him really late. He'll definitely have great value next year though.

 

• *Maeda - I dunno why but I feel like he'll probably get the Quintana treatment in drafts, where he'll go later than he should. Dude's been nothing but consistent as hell this year. Definitely someone I'll have my eye on next year.

 

• G. Sanchez - Next year's Schwarber. Someone is gonna reach for Scary Gary and it'll probably be a bad move. Dude's a monster behind the plate though if you've seen his highlights since being called up. Just play the waiver wire on catchers or grab someone late. 

 

• De Leon - 100% trying to draft this guy. That K/9 makes me drool. Him and McCullers are two guys I'd love to have on my team just for their strikeout ability. I think you'll be able to get him somewhat late since he's still a question mark at this point. You want proven arms first, but he'll be one of my first choices for my upside picks.

 

• Schoop - Middle Infielder with lots of pop. Started off slow but has picked up significantly. You won't see me reaching for him, but he's definitely worth targeting if you find yourself lacking power in later rounds.

 

• *Castellanos - Definitely broke out this year. Will likely fall in drafts after the injury he sustained so he'll definitely provide value in next year's drafts.

 

• Benintendi - Not worth reaching on, but you'll probably be able to get him as an OF5 who could produce OF3 numbers in that spooky Red Sox lineup.

 

• *A. Sanchez - Underrated as hell this year. Strikeouts weren't as high as I was expecting though considering that was one of the reasons I had my eye on him this year. You'll probably be able to get him as a SP3 at the cost of a SP5 or 6.

 

Basically De Leon, Trea and maybe Maeda are the guys I would love to draft next year. I prefer to draft more established guys, and let everyone else focus and draft on the upside from the previous year, which usually doesn't pan out. Then I do my best to scoop up the waiver gold/call ups that provide that extra umph late in the season... who inevitably become the overdrafted guys the following year.

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9 hours ago, VitorSH said:

1st round value is no easy task... you can't expect rookies to just easily get there

 

They do have the potential, but to say they're almost a lock to return 1st round value is reckless

 

Agree to disagree I guess.  I don't think it's reckless to say target these guys early.  Not like I'm saying draft these dudes in the 1st round.  If you don't get 1st round value but still get great value (or at least the value to where they get drafted), there's no harm lost.  

 

I'm high on these 2 guys...simple as that.  Come 2nd or 3rd round next year and I have to choose between someone like Jose Abreu versus Alex Bregman or Turner, I go the latter without blinking.  And to repeat, yes I will be expecting 1st round value.  And I'll still be fully ok if they give me less than that.  Heck, I'll be fine if they give me 4th round value...it was worth the gamble for me to make sure I didn't miss out on knocking a pick out of the park.     

 

And to say things like "there's always an "if". It's not set in stone, even Mike Trout is not a lock to return top 10 value" is a tad silly IMHO when this thread is basically about prognosticating anyways.  Sure, there's always an "if" I guess.  It's already implied when people throw out qualifications like "Mike Trout will be the #1 rated player in 2017" they're making the statement with the obvious parameters that he'll be healthy for the whole season and won't have amnesia over his current skillset.

 

Anyways, I agree though, 1st round value is no easy task.  I just think these two are rare exceptions.  And yet, I still said no where in my post to draft them in the 1st round.   

 

 

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12 hours ago, worldclass said:

Well, I'll surely draft them higher than others would. Turner is just absurdly good. On a good offense too. 20/60 season is not out of the question. If he continues his play and boosts his walks, he's among the best players in the entire league. 

Washington does a good job of getting people excited about players then having them let you down.

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On 9/10/2016 at 7:16 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

There will be a lot of lists made about next year's 1st round, or top 25, or what have you. But you'll win & lose leagues hitting on value later. And to do that, you must decide which breakouts or busts were real, & which were a mirage. Some breakouts-

 

Jonathan Villar- 25 years old, .298 15 HR/53 SB. The average is a mirage, but I think .270/10+/40+ is in store. 

 

Hernan Perez- 25 years old. Are you paying attention?  His 600 AB pace is .281 25 HR/54 SB. Basically has been Villar since he's been playing full time. The Brewers are an aggressive team, a great source of cheap fantasy value. Think he'll still come cheap next year and be quite valuable (can he go .270/10/40?)

 
Danny Duffy- 27 years old. Former prospect broke out in a big way.   3.13 ERA & a sparkling 167 Ks/ 32 BB. Some injury concerns, but could get potential Ace at SP2 value. 
 
And for some 2016 busts:
Justin Upton- .239/22 HR/9 SB
Most of his owners hate the guy. Other than past 3 weeks, he's been awful. But is there some value to be had because his stock will drop? Good lineup, a year in new league. May be a good value pick next year. Betting he's again north of .260 with the 25 HR/10 SB.
 
 
Jason Heyward- .227 6 HR/8 SB 
This dude was already viewed as overrated in fantasy, & now has been absolutely gross. Great lineup, pedigree...I'm selling, but anyone think there's anything to see here?
 
Thoughts on these players? Any others you want to add to discussion?
Justin Turner? Eduardo Nunez? 

By the way, since we are looking ahead to 17, the schedule comes out tomorrow, how long before folks start to talk about 1st week 2 start pitchers and good matchups?  

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What about the other Upton, Melvin?  He jumped back into what he used to be with the Rays which was a nice counting stat contributor.  Already 20-20, probably going to be 20+ HR and 30+SB season for Mel.  The other Jay OF who has really helped me this year as well is Saunders.  i guess the issue for them is getting full-time at bats and what that outlook is for 2017,

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Monitor those young arms that started out shaky this season but have come on strong down the stretch like the Finnegan and Folty types.  It's the deep rotation depth that helps you win especially in large h2h leagues where streaming is near impossible.

Also given all the Mets SP health issues does anyone think Lugo makes the rotation next year?

I agree about Porcello but he isn't exactly hidden anymore.  But since he re-invented himself starting with coming off the DL last season he has found a way to dominate mixing in high strikes with his sinkers and tailoring same based on batter profiles.  He is also the anti-Buchholz in that if the bases are loaded he does NOT curl up into fetal position and shrivel away.  He finds a way out of jams.  Tough mentally.  Dude has learned to pitch.

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Monitor those young arms that started out shaky this season but have come on strong down the stretch like the Finnegan and Folty types.  It's the deep rotation depth that helps you win especially in large h2h leagues where streaming is near impossible.

Also given all the Mets SP health issues does anyone think Lugo makes the rotation next year?

I agree about Porcello but he isn't exactly hidden anymore.  But since he re-invented himself starting with coming off the DL last season he has found a way to dominate mixing in high strikes with his sinkers and tailoring same based on batter profiles.  He is also the anti-Buchholz in that if the bases are loaded he does NOT curl up into fetal position and shrivel away.  He finds a way out of jams.  Tough mentally.  Dude has learned to pitch.

I agree, when you look for those pitching values for the following year, its usually looking at those guys who really got their stuff together after a shaky start.  Many will look at overall season as not very good, but if you can find those guys trending in right direction, they can be a value.  

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13 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I agree, when you look for those pitching values for the following year, its usually looking at those guys who really got their stuff together after a shaky start.  Many will look at overall season as not very good, but if you can find those guys trending in right direction, they can be a value.  

Yeah and hitters too.  Young or vets who have gotten their act together.  It's how I targeted and got Josh Donaldson back in his Oakland days for example. 

And it was obvious from last year's stats that Cano was back, baby.  Not by his yearly totals but by his pre and post all star splits.  Too bad there was no way I could get him in my dynasty leagues cause i knew he would have an outstanding year this year.

Maybe we should be looking at stats from mid-July on right now to target people for next year.  Not just looking at their whole season stats.  Granted some rookies wear down their first year so you have to realize a Michael Fulmer say isn't really trending downward so much as running out of steam some.  But just saying never ever neglect the second half stats when looking for dark horses for next season.

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37 minutes ago, SwartzJournoProf said:

OK, I'm in a mixed, 5X5 keeper league, I've been offered Trevor Story AND either Alex Bregman or Francisco Lindor for Trea Turner. Would you make that trade and, if so, would you prefer Bregman or Lindor?

Welcome to Rotoworld. These questions belong in Bench Coach Forum where you ask about your specific team. Happy to answer there.

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8 hours ago, parrothead said:

What about the other Upton, Melvin?  He jumped back into what he used to be with the Rays which was a nice counting stat contributor.  Already 20-20, probably going to be 20+ HR and 30+SB season for Mel.  The other Jay OF who has really helped me this year as well is Saunders.  i guess the issue for them is getting full-time at bats and what that outlook is for 2017,

I believe the Jays have outfielders departing after this season. I like Melvin as a sleeper in 2017. He has gone through major slumps and still reached 20-20.

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On 9/11/2016 at 5:31 PM, colepenhagen said:

well according to eric brynes who let us know a bunch of time a few nights a go he runs a 4.2 forty and a 6.3 60 which is crazy if true... thats 60-80 sb territory easy if he can hit at all which it looks like he can

 

hes on a 65 sb pace right now

 

basically turner is dee gordon with some power and think he will fall somewhere from mid 2nd to mid 3rd rd in redraft

 

A 4.2 forty?  Yeah, I'd have to see that to believe it.  Nonetheless Turner is a stud.

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7 minutes ago, TurkWendellsNecklace said:

 

A 4.2 forty?  Yeah, I'd have to see that to believe it.  Nonetheless Turner is a stud.

i believe it if he ran a 6.3 60

"The lean 6-foot-1, 171-pound Turner ran the 60-yard dash in 6.32 seconds at NC State’s scout day two weeks ago."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/nc-state-trea-turners-game-changing-speed-is-back/#27LLVL3oQxbbp7eR.97

 

 

off course this isnt nfl combine lazer clocked or whatever but still in the top 99.9999% percentile for speed

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1 minute ago, colepenhagen said:

i believe it if he ran a 6.3 60

"The lean 6-foot-1, 171-pound Turner ran the 60-yard dash in 6.32 seconds at NC State’s scout day two weeks ago."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/nc-state-trea-turners-game-changing-speed-is-back/#27LLVL3oQxbbp7eR.97

 

 

off course this isnt combine lazer clocked or whatever but still in the top 99.9999% percentile for speed

 

That is some unreal, Usain Bolt like speed.  Wow, color me impressed.

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2 hours ago, TurkWendellsNecklace said:

 

That is some unreal, Usain Bolt like speed.  Wow, color me impressed.

Turner on roids and a turbo tied to his back , he's not faster than Bolt......haha. Still, Turner's speed is impressive.

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I'm selling all shares of Hosmer, somehow managed to post career high HR despite increasing his already too high GB rate by 6%. I don't buy the Hr/fb ratio and 1b is too deep to pay high round value for him. 

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