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2016 Breakouts & Busts- Buying or Selling in 2017


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3 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

I'm selling all shares of Hosmer, somehow managed to post career high HR despite increasing his already too high GB rate by 6%. I don't buy the Hr/fb ratio and 1b is too deep to pay high round value for him. 

agree probably wont be drafting but 1b is not very deep imo

 

 

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

agree probably wont be drafting but 1b is not very deep imo

 

I agree it isn't very deep at all especially in (cough) "deep" leagues.  Hosmer is golden there especially if a light bulb has gone on in his head and he continues this hitting into next year.  Just behind Freddie Freeman now in the under the radar 1B for next season in my book.

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I agree it isn't very deep at all especially in (cough) "deep" leagues.  Hosmer is golden there especially if a light bulb has gone on in his head and he continues this hitting into next year.  Just behind Freddie Freeman now in the under the radar 1B for next season in my book.

I won't get into the depth at 1B, but I'll argue the lightbulb going off part. If I thought that was what's happening this year, I'd agree with you. However, not too often a player sees their gb rate increase, ld rate decrease and get a spike in power numbers. I don't see a 58%gb guy hitting a ton of bombs in Kaufman as sustainable going fwd. He's probably my number one regression pick for next year honestly. 

SwStk has increased, contact has decreased. I'd like to be excited with you guys, help me get there.

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18 hours ago, garlando said:

Thoughts on Gerrit Cole for next year? Was a top 50 draft pick this past year and has been one of the bigger disappointments this season. 3.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Does he bounce back in 2017?

He was one I really swung and missed on this year, I didnt have him, but tried hard in my keeper league he is an expiring contract so will be in the auction and I could see myself taking a chance if the price is right, but he is one I would want to read more into what exactly was going on this year.  

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On 9/13/2016 at 0:51 PM, WahooManiac said:

I won't get into the depth at 1B, but I'll argue the lightbulb going off part. If I thought that was what's happening this year, I'd agree with you. However, not too often a player sees their gb rate increase, ld rate decrease and get a spike in power numbers. I don't see a 58%gb guy hitting a ton of bombs in Kaufman as sustainable going fwd. He's probably my number one regression pick for next year honestly. 

SwStk has increased, contact has decreased. I'd like to be excited with you guys, help me get there.

Well the hitting a ton of bombs in Kaufman is not even true. He's still clearly affected by his home ball park. His power inflation has all been on the road in better to hit ball parks.

 

Home: 7 HRs  (14.5 HR/FB Rate)

Road: 16 HRs (28.1 HR/FB Rate)

 

So regression to the mean on the road is what you all are looking at...

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1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

Well the hitting a ton of bombs in Kaufman is not even true. He's still clearly affected by his home ball park. His power inflation has all been on the road in better to hit ball parks.

 

Home: 7 HRs  (14.5 HR/FB Rate)

Road: 16 HRs (28.1 HR/FB Rate)

 

So regression to the mean on the road is what you all are looking at...

Good point, but it's more than just the power that has me wondering. Almost every advanced stat you want to look at says he isn't this good. 

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2 minutes ago, IonZephyr said:

Any insight on Anthony DeSclafani going forward.... will keep up his great 2016?   room for improvement? 

This is someone worth buying and selling. If you can get him for what he really is (think 3.50ERA, 7.5-8 K/9 with minimal walks) at average value, do it. But he's not a sub 3 pitcher. SIERA has him sitting at 3.91 with a FIP of 3.81 xFIP of 3.90, his BABIP is under .300 (barely), GB rate dropped, HR/FB 12.3.

 

A guy in my league has been rocking him this year and is going to sell for sure. I won't be buying as his value has increased huge, but I also think he's a good get at a fair price (SP3). He had a great September last year and a solid year this year, but let's look at his 191IP (essentially a season): 

 

191IP, 171SO to 36BB (really solid), 24HR (not so good), 8.06K/9, 1.13HR/9, .321BABIP (a little high), GB% at 42.3% (good enough), 3.63ERA/3.65FIP/3.65xFIP

 

I think that's essentially who he is. If he's healthy he's steady.

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Dumb thread really as almost all breakout guys should be avoided next year, so you sell them all unless you think they will improve further.

 

The odds are slight regression (sophmore slumpism)happens so they provide negative value. You always want solid proven guys potential breakout players, not to pay for last years stats.

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5 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

Dumb thread really as almost all breakout guys should be avoided next year, so you sell them all unless you think they will improve further.

 

The odds are slight regression (sophmore slumpism)happens so they provide negative value. You always want solid proven guys potential breakout players, not to pay for last years stats.

So you would have stayed away from Kris Bryant,Altuve and Blackmon coming into this year?

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7 minutes ago, ExConn21 said:

what do people think of Trumbo's 2017 outlook. If you remove 2014 (injury) and 2015 (sucked, traded), this season seems to fit his career stat trajectory. Is he a top 50 pick for you?

I was very high on him actually predicted would lead league in HR in bold predictions thread, I think as long as he is in Baltimore that he will be a 40+ HR player. 

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