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Jonathan Villar 2017 Outlook


parrothead
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Figured would get this started, since I think he will be one of the more polarizing players when it comes to ADP, value and whether or not his numbers are anywhere close to repeatable.  

 

I said this last year, that if he had a job I liked him as counting stat contributor.  He had about a seasons worth of ABs coming into this year and in those he had 10HR and 40+ Steals, so the potential was there, but cant think anyone saw a player 1HR away from being only the 3rd member ever of the 20-60 club.  I think if he had more of a pedigree that he would have a higher ADP next year, but he is one of those guys (and they come every year) where the majority of those who play the fantasy game just arent going "all in".  It was kind of like Chris Davis 50+HR season a couple years back, I remember that ADP discussion and when we did our first mock on here, he dropped to like 2nd or 3rd round and I can see the same thing happening here.  Everyone loves the numbers, thinks they should be higher ADP, its just not going to be them making that higher pick and everyone takes this approach and he falls.  

 

Some perhaps legit concerns over his defensive status for 2017 in terms of where he plays everyday.  

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i don't even play redraft, so i'll leave it to you guys to figure out exactly where to draft him, but i more or less totally believe in him at this point

 

i think the collective "one big year is probably a fluke" stance on guys like this is one of the better profit opportunities in the game if you do a good job of picking your spots to go against it, and i think villar is one of those spots

 

i got in some huge arguments about where to draft bautista after his first big year, same principle

 

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Quick glance at his FG page and nothing sticks out as super unsustainable. Swung a little less across the board, but the hard hit went up. Hr/fb was probably on the "ceiling" end of things, but it wasn't insane. What's the manager status? That could play a role in the sb dept if he's gone, but even a ton of regression and he still steals 40. A .270 12/40 floor is pretty sexy, and I think he does better than that

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I have him in my two keeper leagues, and he's an easy keeper. I'm not sure he's the near 20-60 guy we saw this year, but I firmly believe that he's very capable of repeating 14-16 HR and 40-50 SB. I know some are skeptical because he crapped the bed with his opportunity in 2014, but he hit .284 in 116 ABs in 2015 and .285 in a full season in 2016. Even in that bad 2014 season, he had 7 HR and 17 SB in 263 AB (projects to 16 HR and 38 SB over the same 589 ABs he had this year). 

 

I think even Villar regressing some, I think he puts up .270-90-15-60-40 numbers in 2017. 

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17 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

Had a .369 OnBase %, I think that comes down. Career .336 OB%. Would obviously cut into his SB total, but seems a lock for 10 hr and 40 sb. That plays at SS.

 

And at 2B for those of us in Yahoo leagues, too :). 

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18 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

Had a .369 OnBase %, I think that comes down. Career .336 OB%. Would obviously cut into his SB total, but seems a lock for 10 hr and 40 sb. That plays at SS.

 

every time anybody says anything about villar's "career" stats on these threads i yell at them about it

 

before this year he was a like 23-year-old who hadn't really established himself yet, i don't think those numbers mean much

 

his OBP was actually steady at more like .380 for most of the year until the late slump

 

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People also forget that he lost his son in July of 2014. Hard to focus on a game when you lose a family member mid season, might, just might have an impact on career numbers when there's only a small sample to go from to start with.

2015 he started to show what he brings to the table, I'm going to assume he gathered himself as much as one can after a loss like he went through, takes time if ever to focus again on a game. To me, he gets a pass for 2014's numbers as well as his career numbers, I'm going off of 2015 to present when evaluating Villar. (rubs hand together ala Mr. Burns, "excellent" thinking about my 2b in 2017).

 

my edit: Did I just confuse Villar with Segura? I may have, if so, disregard.  Homer says, "DOH" 

Edited by FISH ON
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12 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

People also forget that he lost his son in July of 2014. Hard to focus on a game when you lose a family member mid season, might, just might have an impact on career numbers when there's only a small sample to go from to start with.

2015 he started to show what he brings to the table, I'm going to assume he gathered himself as much as one can after a loss like he went through, takes time if ever to focus again on a game. To me, he gets a pass for 2014's numbers as well as his career numbers, I'm going off of 2015 to present when evaluating Villar. (rubs hand together ala Mr. Burns, "excellent" thinking about my 2b in 2017).

 

my edit: Did I just confuse Villar with Segura? I may have, if so, disregard.  Homer says, "DOH" 

Yup, this is Jean Segura. A lot of this was discussed early in his thread, but you forgot about the part where Braun bombed him with that bat in the dugout steps too. Dudes had it rough the past few

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3 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

every time anybody says anything about villar's "career" stats on these threads i yell at them about it

 

before this year he was a like 23-year-old who hadn't really established himself yet, i don't think those numbers mean much

 

his OBP was actually steady at more like .380 for most of the year until the late slump

 

 

I understand where you were coming from and you might be right, but I have a tough time believing it. He placed 23rd best in all of MLB on getting on base this year. Which also marks the best rate of his entire career (majors and minors). If he actually showed the skill in the minors, I'd probably agree with you. But this is really his first time showing this skill.

 

It's possible that he figured things out, but I'm expecting some regression with his on base % as pitchers adjust. He doesn't have the power to scare pitchers from attacking the strike zone a little more often. But who knows, I could be wrong.

 

Regardless, good fantasy player.

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10 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

I understand where you were coming from and you might be right, but I have a tough time believing it. He placed 23rd best in all of MLB on getting on base this year. Which also marks the best rate of his entire career (majors and minors). If he actually showed the skill in the minors, I'd probably agree with you. But this is really his first time showing this skill.

 

don't really agree. he didn't post raw OBPs that high, that's true, but a lot of good components were in place. his walk rates were always good, always at least around 8% and sometimes pushing up into double digits. his OBPs stayed down in a mediocre range because his batting averages were never that high. but he was also always super young for the levels he was playing at. a .341 OBP for a 22-year-old middle infielder in AAA, followed by .363 the next year, is really good. even in partial-season samples. shows that he's always had a decent idea of the strike zone. as he matures and gains both strength and experience/skill at making contact against advanced pitching, raising his average, the OBP follows. that's what i think we saw this year. 

 

also his OBPs were mostly better at higher levels than they were at the lower ones, which is always a great trend.

 

his OBP certainly could go down some next year, everybody fluctuates. but i think he's demonstrated a good ability to work counts for a while now.

 

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On 10/7/2016 at 1:17 PM, wily mo said:

 

every time anybody says anything about villar's "career" stats on these threads i yell at them about it

 

before this year he was a like 23-year-old who hadn't really established himself yet, i don't think those numbers mean much

 

his OBP was actually steady at more like .380 for most of the year until the late slump

 

Actually Ive quoted it many times, in those years where he couldnt quite get FT play and established he put up about a seasons worth of At-bats, and in those, he put up 10HR and 42SBs.  So my thought was always, with full time at bats, the counting numbers in HR and SB would be there. 

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On 10/6/2016 at 7:29 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

plays anywhere really, esp for roto. 40 steals is huge.

Well not sure he "plays" anywhere, more like Brewers have tried to find a place for below avg glove in many spots, but in the fantasy game, as long as the defense isnt costing him his job, what do we care. 

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Well not sure he "plays" anywhere, more like Brewers have tried to find a place for below avg glove in many spots, but in the fantasy game, as long as the defense isnt costing him his job, what do we care. 

 

think he meant plays anywhere in the "that plays" sense, like, his stats are good enough that you'd be happy to have them in any slot in your lineup, even like 1B. not that villar literally plays every position

 

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If my league is any indication, Villar will be underrated going into 2017. I offered him to someone for Carlos Rodon and was rejected -- this, despite Villar outscoring Rodon by about 250 points in my league, being eligible at 3 spots and outscoring every hitter this other team had. Villar was great this year, but I have a ton of other bats and wanted to gamble on a young pitcher after losing Fernandez.

Edited by rdf8585
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2 hours ago, rdf8585 said:

If my league is any indication, Villar will be underrated going into 2017. I offered him to someone for Carlos Rodon and was rejected -- this, despite Villar outscoring Rodon by about 250 points in my league, being eligible at 3 spots and outscoring every hitter this other team had. Villar was great this year, but I have a ton of other bats and wanted to gamble on a young pitcher after losing Fernandez.

Yeah, I was contending this year and owned him, which typically teams out of it would offer their high priced non keeper studs for great keepers like him, but I got no such offers this year.  

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Yeah, I was contending this year and owned him, which typically teams out of it would offer their high priced non keeper studs for great keepers like him, but I got no such offers this year.  

 

As a contending team, I got a couple of inquiries about Villar from dumpers, but I quickly shot them down. They were looking for a keeper...I was looking to not lose my lead in SBs, lol. 

 

I think a number of contending teams were probably in a similar boat...would have taken a truckload to pry Villar away from most owners in keeper leagues. However underrated he may have been this year, though, I think there's a good chance he'll be overhyped in 2017. Once the preseason stuff starts coming out, guys start looking at available players, the allure of a potential 20-50 three-position infielder will be strong. But we'll see. 

Edited by Flyman75
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On 10/13/2016 at 10:08 AM, Flyman75 said:

 

As a contending team, I got a couple of inquiries about Villar from dumpers, but I quickly shot them down. They were looking for a keeper...I was looking to not lose my lead in SBs, lol. 

 

I think a number of contending teams were probably in a similar boat...would have taken a truckload to pry Villar away from most owners in keeper leagues. However underrated he may have been this year, though, I think there's a good chance he'll be overhyped in 2017. Once the preseason stuff starts coming out, guys start looking at available players, the allure of a potential 20-50 three-position infielder will be strong. But we'll see. 

Dont completely disagree, but I think he is one of those guys who if you own him, you believe, if you didnt own him, youre likely more skeptical and that entrenchment into peoples thoughts for lack of a better term can push his value down a bit.  

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On Thursday, October 13, 2016 at 8:14 AM, rdf8585 said:

If my league is any indication, Villar will be underrated going into 2017. I offered him to someone for Carlos Rodon and was rejected -- this, despite Villar outscoring Rodon by about 250 points in my league, being eligible at 3 spots and outscoring every hitter this other team had. Villar was great this year, but I have a ton of other bats and wanted to gamble on a young pitcher after losing Fernandez.

Rodon was on the WW for most of the year. I do hope he lives up to his hype, but I would jump all over Villar if I was given that offer

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7 hours ago, Homerj24 said:

I plan on keeping him at $15 ($260 cap) in my 10 teamer (OBP instead of runs). I'll gladly plug 40-60 steals into my SS spot again this season & forcus on AVG and Power in my draft, 

 

That's the best part. I do the exact same, and maybe grab a few OFs that will give me double digit steals. 

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