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Jonathan Villar 2017 Outlook


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58 minutes ago, Piotr said:

 

Those 23 at-bats fit his career profile. And as I keep reminding people, Sogard is 31. I know he made some adjustments, but he is still an extremely limited player. 

Sounds pretty much like Villar! Except without the adjustments.

I mean, if you look at Villars career he was good for part of 1 season. He has 2.5 career WAR, and 3 of that was last season.... so what does that tell you about every other year? And ita not like hes some young inexperienced rookie either. This is his 10th season in pro ball (which by the way is only 1 season less than Sogard) and even throughout most of his minor league seasons he was a below average hitter.

 

 

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12 hours ago, cs3 said:

Sounds pretty much like Villar! Except without the adjustments.

I mean, if you look at Villars career he was good for part of 1 season. He has 2.5 career WAR, and 3 of that was last season.... so what does that tell you about every other year? And ita not like hes some young inexperienced rookie either. This is his 10th season in pro ball (which by the way is only 1 season less than Sogard) and even throughout most of his minor league seasons he was a below average hitter.

 

i don't agree with this take, but, rather than just argue with it, i'm going to mention something that occurred to me while thinking about it

 

villar *was* a relatively well-regarded prospect coming up, but he got largely written off after 2014, when he was bad for the astros

 

looking back at his fangraphs just now, i saw his 7 home runs in 2014 and remembered that he got those really quickly. i specifically remember looking at the stats in my home league that year and posting to the boards, "wait, jonathan villar has 7 homers?" this was in like may or something, i don't remember exactly. but he looked like he was breaking out at that point. (that owner traded him for greg holland shortly afterward, which turned out to be a good call)

 

but then he hit a wall and eventually lost the job

 

my point is, that season he also followed the pattern of a big slump after a power spike

 

then: 6 or 7 homers by early may, struggle the rest of the year

 

now: 8 homers in september at the end of a successful season, seems to lose the handle

 

so this could be sort of a recurring pattern with him. but this would reinforce the idea that it's something he can eventually recover from

 

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, wily mo said:

so this could be sort of a recurring pattern with him. but this would reinforce the idea that it's something he can eventually recover from

 

When he recovers in 2019 he won't be on my team.

 

His approach to hitting is just abysmal. He hasn't quite reached Byron Buxton levels of ineptitude and wasted potential, but Byron is clearly Villar's hero. You just know Villar makes out with Byron's photograph every night before going to bed, and has all sorts Byron-related hair dolls and memorabilia. What a freak - glad he's off my team.

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4 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Leading off against Ubaldo today. Normally I'd be all over this matchup. But Ubaldo pitched 8 shutout innings @TOR last time out and Villar is 0 for 5 with 4 Ks against him in his career. 

5 at bats doesn't really mean anything imo. 

Even with Ubaldo's performance last game his era is over 6 and he has a 1.48 whip. He should not scare you in the least. 

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In my experience, when it's the exact same hitter vs. the exact same pitcher it means a lot, especially when it's that lopsided. Most guys who have played baseball will tell you the same thing.

But even scientifically, you're holding many more factors constant when you take BvP stats than you are with general averages. So the small sample size becomes much more valuable. Of course, the same goes for more recent results vs. older ones. Although granted, Ubaldo did get blown up just before the 8 shutout innings he threw vs. the Jays. 

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 this would reinforce the idea that it's something he can eventually recover from

wily mo,

How did you come to that conclusion? One can just as easily say he's followed the same pattern of mediocrity interspersed with hot streaks for his entire career so this reinforces the idea that he going to keep doing that same thing. Theres zero evidence to support the notion that sucking is something he can recover from.

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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

Now he's 0 for 8 with 7 Ks vs. Ubaldo, who otherwise got teed off on. Call that a fluke if you want. But it seems pretty clear to me. 

 

It's not a fluke, but not because of the reason you think it is. 

 

Villar strikes out against everyone. Ubaldo is not special. Be it Ubaldo, or Kershaw, or an armless man, Villar will find a way to fail. It is almost pointless to discuss the (predicted) effect of matchups on a player's performance when the player's fundamental problem is that he cannot hit. 

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9 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

It's not a fluke, but not because of the reason you think it is. 

 

Villar strikes out against everyone. Ubaldo is not special. Be it Ubaldo, or Kershaw, or an armless man, Villar will find a way to fail. It is almost pointless to discuss the (predicted) effect of matchups on a player's performance when the player's fundamental problem is that he cannot hit. 

I saw a tee strike out Villar.

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35 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

It's not a fluke, but not because of the reason you think it is. 

 

Villar strikes out against everyone. Ubaldo is not special. Be it Ubaldo, or Kershaw, or an armless man, Villar will find a way to fail. It is almost pointless to discuss the (predicted) effect of matchups on a player's performance when the player's fundamental problem is that he cannot hit. 

Anyone who has played baseball will tell you certain pitchers give certain guys more problems than others. 

When a guy strikes you out 7 times out of 8 ABs, it's -such- a clear cut case of this that you're right. It would be pointless to discuss it. 

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

wily mo,

How did you come to that conclusion? One can just as easily say he's followed the same pattern of mediocrity interspersed with hot streaks for his entire career so this reinforces the idea that he going to keep doing that same thing. Theres zero evidence to support the notion that sucking is something he can recover from.

 

by recover i just mean that he got going good again after that point. he was pretty good in 2015 and really good in 2016

 

"his entire career" to this point is still - 

2013: first exposure to big leagues at age 22

2014: just described - hot start & then faceplant

2015: performed pretty well, got bumped by correa

2016: was awesome, as we all know

2017: now

 

describing last year as a "hot streak" when it was the only full season he's ever actually played in the major leagues and he was good all season long is kinda silly

 

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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

Anyone who has played baseball will tell you certain pitchers give certain guys more problems than others. 

When a guy strikes you out 7 times out of 8 ABs, it's -such- a clear cut case of this that you're right. It would be pointless to discuss it. 

 

1. Yes, and any statistician will tell you that 8 ABs is a ridiculously small sample size. 

 

2. I agree with the obvious that batters won't perform the same against every pitcher in the aggregate. However, when discussing such a small sample, I am much more willing to suspend judgement, unless I have knowledge of a specific mechanism which might explain why we should expect relatively higher struggles against X pitcher. 

 

As the person trying to convince us of your position, you'd be best served by introducing this specific mechanism. All I have so far is you making an argument based on the 4 at-bats themselves without any other context. Not very compelling. 

 

Now, if you said, "Ubaldo throws the Ubaldo ball, a pitch with a lot of break, almost excusilvely, and Villar struggles against breaking pitches, so we should place extra emphasis on this small sample." Ok, sure, sample size will be a lesser concern. 

 

But that required actual analysis and not a lazy appeal to authority about you playing baseball. I didn't know playing baseball gave you the superhero power to be able to confidently extrapolate any and all 4-AB samples. 

 

3. Like I said, it's kind of moot talking about matchups right now when the guy is striking out constantly and can't get on base. 

 

4. Whether by skill or dumb luck, you were correct about Ubaldo so congrats. Although I'd surmise most owners were expecting 0-4 or 1-5 with 1-2ks. I expect that every game ^^. 

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7 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

by recover i just mean that he got going good again after that point. he was pretty good in 2015 and really good in 2016

 

"his entire career" to this point is still - 

2013: first exposure to big leagues at age 22

2014: just described - hot start & then faceplant

2015: performed pretty well, got bumped by correa

2016: was awesome, as we all know

2017: now

 

describing last year as a "hot streak" when it was the only full season he's ever actually played in the major leagues and he was good all season long is kinda silly

 

no, his pro career began 10 years ago. he wasn't even a good minor league hitter. he's had 1 good season in his pro career. that's it. no reason to think that 1 outlier season is something he will repeat, and certainly not something that is close to a new baseline for him.

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26 minutes ago, exm said:

With all the negativity here I wonder how he hit 2 HRs the other day. Luck?

 

He is at or near career lows in AVG, OBP, OPS and K rate. He has a negative WAR ! There is plenty of reasons for negativity.

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6 hours ago, cs3 said:

no, his pro career began 10 years ago. he wasn't even a good minor league hitter. he's had 1 good season in his pro career. that's it. no reason to think that 1 outlier season is something he will repeat, and certainly not something that is close to a new baseline for him.

 

What made his 2012, 2013, and 2015 minor league numbers bad? 

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18 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

Now he's 0 for 8 with 7 Ks vs. Ubaldo, who otherwise got teed off on. Call that a fluke if you want. But it seems pretty clear to me. 

I agree in this case mainly because of Ubaldos unique Arm movement before he throws the pitch.  Some players can time it. Some can't.  Bvp on a guy like this is very telling 

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3 hours ago, exm said:

With all the negativity here I wonder how he hit 2 HRs the other day. Luck?

My man, he was facing a guy with Homer in his name throwing 88 mph meatballs in the smallest ballpark in the national league 

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11 hours ago, cs3 said:

no, his pro career began 10 years ago. he wasn't even a good minor league hitter. he's had 1 good season in his pro career. that's it. no reason to think that 1 outlier season is something he will repeat, and certainly not something that is close to a new baseline for him.

 

you don't evaluate minor league stats by just looking at them and saying "these are good or bad"

 

i mean, you can, but it's not a good idea

 

the astros pushed villar up pretty aggressively, such that he was always really young for the level he was at. the numbers he put up as a 20/21-year-old middle infielder in AA, for example, or a 22-year-old in AAA, were really pretty good, even though they don't really jump off the page if you look at them without thinking about the context

 

he never hit for super high averages and always struck out a lot, but he also always had good walk rates and hit for good ISO power for an extremely young up-the-middle player

 

.277/.341/.442 for a 22-year-old shortstop in AAA are good numbers, not bad numbers

 

 

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