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Jonathan Villar 2017 Outlook


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4 minutes ago, TTRA1N said:

Still hitting leadoff today. Getting plenty of chances.

Apparently Sogard is hurt, hence why. I think he's back to the bench afterwards. 

 

Arcia should be beating leadoff at this point 

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4 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

you don't evaluate minor league stats by just looking at them and saying "these are good or bad"

 

i mean, you can, but it's not a good idea

 

the astros pushed villar up pretty aggressively, such that he was always really young for the level he was at. the numbers he put up as a 20/21-year-old middle infielder in AA, for example, or a 22-year-old in AAA, were really pretty good, even though they don't really jump off the page if you look at them without thinking about the context

 

he never hit for super high averages and always struck out a lot, but he also always had good walk rates and hit for good ISO power for an extremely young up-the-middle player

 

.277/.341/.442 for a 22-year-old shortstop in AAA are good numbers, not bad numbers

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

What made his 2012, 2013, and 2015 minor league numbers bad? 

You guys are not taking league context into consideration. His 2013 line .277/.341/.442 would be fine for a MLB SS. But that only translated to a 106 wRC+. Thats just barely above league average and doesn't generally translate to fantasy relevance. And then he got called up to MLB and posted a 79 wRC+ which is terrible. The list of guys who didnt hit in the minors, and then suddenly became fantasy superstars is pretty tiny. only Lindor comes to mind for recent SS's, and he posted better results than Villar all along (at respective ages'levels), and was also much much more highly regarded in the scouting world.

 

Did you guys even look at his numbers or read any of his scouting reports? From A ball in 2009 through AAA in 2015, he was only a league average hitter 3 times out of 11 stops, and those 3 times he was barely league average posting wRC+'s of  105, 106, and 102 for various 300 atbat points along the way. In his other 8 stints his wRC+ was 77, 98, 72, 98, 83, 70, 93, 76.

What do you see there that points towards being a fantasy monster like he was in 2016? Think about it logically and the only conclusion is that 2016 was a massive outlier. ANd then take into account that he has always been a horrible infielder defensively, and his downside becomes exactly whats happening this year - replacement level player who doesn't get full time at bats. 

 

I don't even have anything invested in this guy. I avoided him everywhere because his draft price was ridiculously high and the production i expected from him was nowhere near that. (No, I did not expect him to be quite this horrible, but I did see exactly this scenario as being a possible reasonable  non-zero outcome). I just dont get why people think that his baseline should be 2016, a fantasy monster, when everything else in his career points towards him being pretty mediocre both in real life and in fantasy. I dont think that the one season was anywhere close to his true talent level, and people that think he is just an adjustment away from being great again are delusional. Not saying either of the 2 guys I quoted necessarily feel that way, but several posters in this thread definitely do.

Edited by cs3
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I don't disagree that 2016 is an outlier, but wRC+ isn't a great stat to use for a guy who gets a vast majority of his fantasy value from his ability to steal bags.  Obviously he's not stealing if he can't get on base, but he doesn't have to be anything more than a ~100 wRC+ to get enough stolen base opportunities be a top 40 fantasy player.   He's never going to sniff the top 10 again, but with steals at a premium and the guys who do get high-end steal numbers generally being weak bats, it's one of those "don't have to outrun the bear" scenarios, with the role of the bear being played by Jarrod Dyson or Delino DeShields.

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You quote RC+ which is scaled to the average production of the league..but the average age of any of those leagues were guy would were older and more polished than he was. That is kinda why is very flawed to take straight stats to judge MILBers. His stats had the same pattern most non-elite prospects had. They would earn a promotion then struggle in that upper level initially

 

Astro's acquired him from the philles and immediately promoted him to high A as a 19 year despite the fact his numbers in Low A that year did not warrant it. AKA rushing him and why those stats don't tell the whole story. He would improve the next year as a 20 with a .345 wOBA and they would push him to AA as a 20 year old from the cal league? Yeah he was gonna struggle from that kinda jump unless he was an elite talent.  Yet he would improve the next year a tad as a 21 year old. Then improve again as a 22 year old in AAA.

 

His first 2 years in the majors were ugly for sure..but he made marketed improvements in contact rate in 2015 as a 24 year old. Then built off that to last year as a 25 year old with a good idea of the K zone and his raw skills started to actualize.

 

He has shown growth in multi areas of his career. THAT is where wily mo is talking about have some faith him not just simply continuing to be this bad.  As he just turned 26.

 

I think most reasonable people knew some regression from last year was happening... Not to this extent however. where he would lose all his gains in contact/plate discipline that built up the previous years.

 

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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Tonycpsu

I disagree. Steals alone aren't all that valuable. He also hit. In 2016 a lot of his value came from the fact that he he at the top of the order and accumulated 679 PA's, and he hit .285 so the other counting stats also piled up. Thats never going to happen again if he can't stay at the top of the order for a full season

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

Did you guys even look at his numbers or read any of his scouting reports?

 

this is kind of a jerky question, especially considering that i quoted some of his numbers in the post you were quoting

 

i don't really feel like arguing about this, anyway. everybody draw your own conclusions

 

 

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13 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I disagree. Steals alone aren't all that valuable.

 

Take it up with the ESPN Player Rater (2016 numbers):

 

TnLi51D.png

 

In roto value terms, given how hard steals are to find, they're saying most of his value came from steals.

 

But more importantly: he got a hit!  And extra bases at that.  Praise the lord!

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21 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

this is kind of a jerky question, especially considering that i quoted some of his numbers in the post you were quoting

 

i don't really feel like arguing about this, anyway. everybody draw your own conclusions

 

 

I specified his 10+ long pro career and people kept failing to take into account his minor league track record and only focus on his MLB stints.

 

Also (not directed at you wily) I totally understand age vs level and how its reflected in scouting reports and future value projections. But Villar still doesn't stack up using that basis against the actual high level fantasy contributors. 

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

 

You guys are not taking league context into consideration. His 2013 line .277/.341/.442 would be fine for a MLB SS. But that only translated to a 106 wRC+. Thats just barely above league average and doesn't generally translate to fantasy relevance. And then he got called up to MLB and posted a 79 wRC+ which is terrible. The list of guys who didnt hit in the minors, and then suddenly became fantasy superstars is pretty tiny. only Lindor comes to mind for recent SS's, and he posted better results than Villar all along (at respective ages'levels), and was also much much more highly regarded in the scouting world.

 

Did you guys even look at his numbers or read any of his scouting reports? From A ball in 2009 through AAA in 2015, he was only a league average hitter 3 times out of 11 stops, and those 3 times he was barely league average posting wRC+'s of  105, 106, and 102 for various 300 atbat points along the way. In his other 8 stints his wRC+ was 77, 98, 72, 98, 83, 70, 93, 76.

What do you see there that points towards being a fantasy monster like he was in 2016? Think about it logically and the only conclusion is that 2016 was a massive outlier. ANd then take into account that he has always been a horrible infielder defensively, and his downside becomes exactly whats happening this year - replacement level player who doesn't get full time at bats. 

 

I don't even have anything invested in this guy. I avoided him everywhere because his draft price was ridiculously high and the production i expected from him was nowhere near that. (No, I did not expect him to be quite this horrible, but I did see exactly this scenario as being a possible reasonable  non-zero outcome). I just dont get why people think that his baseline should be 2016, a fantasy monster, when everything else in his career points towards him being pretty mediocre both in real life and in fantasy. I dont think that the one season was anywhere close to his true talent level, and people that think he is just an adjustment away from being great again are delusional. Not saying either of the 2 guys I quoted necessarily feel that way, but several posters in this thread definitely do.

 

Okay, here's an idea...how about you read my post for what it says and not for what you want to read into it. I asked a simple question about your opinion as to why Villar's numbers were bad in 2012, 2013, and 2015. Instead of just answering, you want to lump my non-argumentative post into an argument. 

 

Now, I appreciate the info that you provided, but I wasn't arguing with you. I was asking your opinion. 

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You're right, I didn't do a very good job of directly answering your question.

In a vacuum, the 2012 and 2013 numbers were not bad per se. However, compared to the rest of the league they barely above average. 5% and 6% above league average to be exact. In my opinion that doesn't scream high level hitter, and certainly doesn't (or shouldn't) make me expect an impact fantasy player is in the making. He was pretty young, so maybe a league average major leaguer is somewhere in that profile, but the numbers didn't tell anyone to expect much more than that. I dont recall any scouting reports talking about him as a high value player either. 

In 2015 he again was slightly above league average, but it was his third attempt at AAA and his results were actually worse than they were in first shot at the level in 2013. Having a worse season at the same level you played in 2 years ago is not a good thing in my opinion, and its another indicator that he likely wouldn't be an impact major leaguer. And players that have to repeat a level 3 times generally do not become fantasy relevant.

 

So thats why I think his 2012, 2013, and 2015 minor league numbers were mediocre as they apply to a fantasy outlook.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by cs3
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Sogard to the DL. Villar would seem to get everyday PT now.. Guess we will see what he makes of it. I dropped him a few days ago because he has been atrocious. But still worth monitoring I guess. Im just waiting for Ozzie to be called up B)

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

How sad is it that we owners are excited about a 1-for-4 day. Granted, it comes with a SB, 2 runs, and an RBI. But after reading this thread, I expected to find a multi-hit game, maybe three hits. 

 

Yes. He proved nothing today. Let's set our sights just a bit realistically: 3 consecutive games w/o 3+ Ks, 4 consecutive games w/o a caught stealing etc. That's how low the bar is right now.

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