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Jonathan Villar 2017 Outlook


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6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

8 game hitting streak 2 game SB streak.

 

I had Villar in a Dynasty league and I was excited to keep him, but not super thrilled about drafting him in round 2-3.  All signs pointed to a pretty good drop in average which would lead to less everything else.  At some point this season, things kind of changed. I bought him in a points league for not a lot. A bad score in that league is a negative point total per day, and since I've gotten him, he hasn't had 1 negative day.

 

It's going to take a massive amount of big games to make his numbers similar to last year, so I think that boat has sank.  What there is here is some value SB and Runs at the MI position with a modest average. He's not as bad as his first half.

 

 

Amazingly, despite missing time and struggling, he's the 13th rated SS on ESPN Player Rater. It's this floor that made him an attractive high pick. Many had his floor at around .245/12/40, and that may be what he is. But that's plenty valuable for a guy who currently qualifies at 2B, SS, & 3B. 

FTR, his 162 game average over his career .254/77/14/52/46 and that may be a fair projection moving forward. 

 

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Amazingly, despite missing time and struggling, he's the 13th rated SS on ESPN Player Rater. It's this floor that made him an attractive high pick. Many had his floor at around .245/12/40, and that may be what he is. But that's plenty valuable for a guy who currently qualifies at 2B, SS, & 3B. 

FTR, his 162 game average over his career .254/77/14/52/46 and that may be a fair projection moving forward. 

 

The eternal optimist.

 

He's actually 15th amongst SS eligible players, just barely above Tim Beckham, on the junk player rater.

 

In my yahoo 6x6 with OPS he's the 473rd ranked player.

 

He's hitting .225, 37 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB... that's trash and we'll below your "floor" you claim. You can easily stream those numbers by riding hot hands. 

 

Maybe he's about to turn it around, but he's been downright brutal and unplayable for most of the year. 

 

I gotta say, if I ever got to play in the MLB I would have loved to have fans like this. 

Edited by StevieStats
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12 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

The eternal optimist.

 

He's actually 15th amongst SS eligible players, just barely above Tim Beckham, on the junk player rater.

 

In my yahoo 6x6 with OPS he's the 473rd ranked player.

 

He's hitting .225, 37 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB... that's trash and we'll below your "floor" you claim. You can easily stream those numbers by riding hot hands. 

 

Maybe he's about to turn it around, but he's been downright brutal and unplayable for most of the year. 

 

I gotta say, if I ever got to play in the MLB I would have loved to have fans like this. 

 

Stevie stop interrupting the echo chamber.

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13 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

The eternal optimist.

 

He's actually 15th amongst SS eligible players, just barely above Tim Beckham, on the junk player rater.

 

In my yahoo 6x6 with OPS he's the 473rd ranked player.

 

He's hitting .225, 37 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB... that's trash and we'll below your "floor" you claim. You can easily stream those numbers by riding hot hands. 

 

Maybe he's about to turn it around, but he's been downright brutal and unplayable for most of the year. 

 

I gotta say, if I ever got to play in the MLB I would have loved to have fans like this. 

 

vLyVvtn.png

 

 

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22 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

The eternal optimist.

 

He's actually 15th amongst SS eligible players, just barely above Tim Beckham, on the junk player rater.

 

In my yahoo 6x6 with OPS he's the 473rd ranked player.

 

He's hitting .225, 37 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB... that's trash and we'll below your "floor" you claim. You can easily stream those numbers by riding hot hands. 

 

Maybe he's about to turn it around, but he's been downright brutal and unplayable for most of the year. 

 

I gotta say, if I ever got to play in the MLB I would have loved to have fans like this. 

 

You aren't streaming SS's and getting better results in anything but an 8 team league unless you are really lucky - you are just looking back in hindsight.  The stats you call "trash" and "well below"the floor the OP claimed are literally the stats stats that make him the 13th ranked SS on ESPN PR, which is what he claimed as the floor.  So wtf are you talking about?

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Just now, StevieStats said:

When I pull it up he's a 1.89, he's below Machado and Didi... just above 1.82 Beckham.

 

Changes for league settings maybe? OBP and OPS in lieu of AVG in that league. 

 

Youre probably using the settings of your league.  Theres a link on the very top next to "closer chart" that says "player rater" and this is the standard league player rater. 

 

He's been awful this year Stevie, none of us who have him love him, but SS has been pretty bad this year. You'd probably be better off having dropped him and picked someone else up like Simmons or Gyorko and you'd be in better in shape... sure. But Machado has been worse and Lindor has been barely better.

 

The point I think some of us are making if he's been as bad as he can be and he's the 13th best SS in standard. That's not great, but it's ok for someone who has been awful if that makes any sense.  I think most of realistically expect it not to get worse unless he gets hurt. 18 steals iin 55% of the season is nothing to sneeze at this year.  

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1 minute ago, The Waker said:

 

You aren't streaming SS's and getting better results in anything but an 8 team league unless you are really lucky - you are just looking back in hindsight.  The stats you call "trash" and "well below"the floor the OP claimed are literally the stats stats that make him the 13th ranked SS on ESPN PR, which is what he claimed as the floor.  So wtf are you talking about?

225 < 245 ... not hard. He's also not on pace for 40 steals.

 

Yes, you can stream a 225 Avg with 30 something R and RBI with 8 HR at SS if that's where you are using him. Plenty of guys that eye available to start the year that you could have grabbed. 

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6 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

225 < 245 ... not hard. He's also not on pace for 40 steals.

 

Yes, you can stream a 225 Avg with 30 something R and RBI with 8 HR at SS if that's where you are using him. Plenty of guys that eye available to start the year that you could have grabbed. 

 

Poster said "Amazingly, despite missing time and struggling, he's the 13th rated SS on ESPN Player Rater. It's this floor that made him an attractive high pick."

 

Hmm, did you mean to leave out SB's when listing those stats? 

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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Youre probably using the settings of your league.  Theres a link on the very top next to "closer chart" that says "player rater" and this is the standard league player rater. 

 

He's been awful this year Stevie, none of us who have him love him, but SS has been pretty bad this year. You'd probably be better off having dropped him and picked someone else up like Simmons or Gyorko and you'd be in better in shape... sure. But Machado has been worse and Lindor has been barely better.

 

The point I think some of us are making if he's been as bad as he can be and he's the 13th best SS in standard. That's not great, but it's ok for someone who has been awful if that makes any sense.  I think most of realistically expect it not to get worse unless he gets hurt. 18 steals iin 55% of the season is nothing to sneeze at this year.  

I hear you man... and that's great if you play in a standard format league on ESPN and believe the Player Rater is accurate.

 

If you look at 6x6 with OPS in Yahoo he's the 25th ranked SS... 473 overall player... so there's one that says he's horrendous too.

 

He hasn't been better than Machado, he's got 18 HR, 47 RBI, his junk 232 Average is still better, better OPS, more runs... same thing with Lindor who has 50 R, 43 RBI, 14 HR, and still far better though not good 253 Avg (plus 778 ops if you care about it)... huge huge sell out for some more steals.

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1 minute ago, StevieStats said:

I hear you man... and that's great if you play in a standard format league on ESPN and believe the Player Rater is accurate.

 

If you look at 6x6 with OPS in Yahoo he's the 25th ranked SS... 473 overall player... so there's one that says he's horrendous too.

 

He hasn't been better than Machado, he's got 18 HR, 47 RBI, his junk 232 Average is still better, better OPS, more runs... same thing with Lindor who has 50 R, 43 RBI, 14 HR, and still far better though not good 253 Avg (plus 778 ops if you care about it)... huge huge sell out for some more steals.

 

no doubt in OPS leagues he's been much more brutal.

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2 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

Poster said "Amazingly, despite missing time and struggling, he's the 13th rated SS on ESPN Player Rater. It's this floor that made him an attractive high pick."

 

Hmm, did you mean to leave out SB's when listing those stats? 

Why don't you finish the quote??? " It's this floor that made him an attractive high pick. Many had his floor at around .245/12/40, and that may be what he is."

 

I did mention the steals, you quoted me saying he was not on pace for the 40 "floor"...

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2 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Why don't you finish the quote??? " It's this floor that made him an attractive high pick. Many had his floor at around .245/12/40, and that may be what he is."

 

I did mention the steals, you quoted me saying he was not on pace for the 40 "floor"...

 

He was stating in his view the floor is where he is now (13th in PR) but others may have had what you then referred to.  In any case, you just said "Yes, you can stream a 225 Avg with 30 something R and RBI with 8 HR at SS if that's where you are using him. Plenty of guys that eye available to start the year that you could have grabbed."

 

You left out SB.  Why?  Do you play in a non SB league?  That's like talking about Chris Davis and leaving out HRs.

Edited by The Waker
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Villar vs Machado

 

Villar (who was hurt for a bit): 37R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB, .225 avg, .639 OPS

Machado: 39R, 18 HR, 49 RBI, 4 SB, .232 avg, .742 OPS

 

Even using OPS, Machado is only slightly better in ESPN PR on year.  Without OPS, Villar is higher.  And Villar would have a few more counting stats if not for the injury.  

 

You seem to just ignore Villar's SB value for some reason.

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3 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

He was stating in his view the floor is where he is now (13th in PR) but others may have had what you then referred to.  In any case, you just said "Yes, you can stream a 225 Avg with 30 something R and RBI with 8 HR at SS if that's where you are using him. Plenty of guys that eye available to start the year that you could have grabbed."

 

You left out SB.  Why?  Do you play in a non SB league?  That's like talking about Chris Davis and leaving out HRs.

No I can't stream 18 SB at SS only, but I can using other positions,  most good players do it every year -- SAGNOF.

 

But you can easily stream better overall value at SS... the SB you can grab at another position. 

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1 minute ago, StevieStats said:

No I can't stream 18 SB at SS only, but I can using other positions,  most good players do it every year -- SAGNOF.

 

But you can easily stream better overall value at SS... the SB you can grab at another position. 

 

LOL okay then I'd have to sacrifice other stats at another position.  It's a trade off.  Maybe someone has good players in other spots and it's easier to just slip in a SB guy in a position where there's only a few good players anyway?  Streaming between Tim Beckham and Orlando Arcia isn't very appealing when I could just slip in Villar and then pick up an OF that actually provides good overall value (Pham, Reddick, etc) instead of a Cameron Maybin.  Other positions are just too valuable to waste on a steals guy.

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2 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

LOL okay then I'd have to sacrifice other stats at another position.  It's a trade off.  Maybe someone has good players in other spots and it's easier to just slip in a SB guy in a position where there's only a few good players anyway?  Streaming between Tim Beckham and Orlando Arcia isn't very appealing when I could just slip in Villar and then pick up an OF that actually provides good overall value (Pham, Reddick, etc) instead of a Cameron Maybin.  Other positions are just too valuable to waste on a steals guy.

But Pham gets those steals :lol: too funny. Also Maybin was a beast for a month+, grabbed him and returned wayyy more than just SB.

 

But you have drifted far from your original point which was answered pretty quickly. 

 

Wish you well with your boy Villar... echo chamber can reconvene.

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11 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

But Pham gets those steals :lol: too funny. Also Maybin was a beast for a month+, grabbed him and returned wayyy more than just SB.

 

But you have drifted far from your original point which was answered pretty quickly. 

 

Wish you well with your boy Villar... echo chamber can reconvene.

We've all talked about how bad he's been throughout this thread, but by all means pull out the "echo chamber" talking point when challenged. 

EDIT: The "floor" comment was clear as day. Basically even when he sucks. He'll get you 8 HR & 17 SB in 1/2 a season of PAs. Not sure why you took that as some ringing endorsement.

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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12 hours ago, The Waker said:

 

You aren't streaming SS's and getting better results in anything but an 8 team league unless you are really lucky - you are just looking back in hindsight.  The stats you call "trash" and "well below"the floor the OP claimed are literally the stats stats that make him the 13th ranked SS on ESPN PR, which is what he claimed as the floor.  So wtf are you talking about?

It's almost impossible to be bad enough at fantasy -not- to stream the #13 SS production in an 8 team league. Even if the max 21 SS were being started, you'd still come close while dominating at every other position as the other 7 teams hoard all the shortstops. 

I think it's safe to say that streaming has easily beaten Villars numbers in most leagues and probably still will ROS if you do it well. But even if you fall a little short, so what? Streaming costs nothing. Villar costed a 3rd or 4th round pick. 

Theres no point in defending value that bad. 

Edited by Fiveohnine
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Not only could you have done better streaming but you probably would have fallen into a Cozart, Didi, Owings, Marwin, Gyorko at some point in the season. So there is that opportunity cost as well. He's been an utter failure. 

Edited by fletch44
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48 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

It's almost impossible to be bad enough at fantasy -not- to stream the #13 SS production in an 8 team league. Even if the max 21 SS were being started, you'd still come close while dominating at every other position as the other 7 teams hoard all the shortstops. 

I think it's safe to say that streaming has easily beaten Villars numbers in most leagues and probably still will ROS if you do it well. But even if you fall a little short, so what? Streaming costs nothing. Villar costed a 3rd or 4th round pick. 

Theres no point in defending value that bad. 

 

I said BUT an 8 team league.  You aren't going to do better in a 10 team league streaming unless luck falls your way.  At least 12 of the top SS's would already be taken anyway.  I am NOT defending him as a 3rd or 4th draft pick.  Of course he was a bust in that regard.  The discussion was whether he is better than streaming.

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28 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Not only could you have done better streaming but you probably would have fallen into a Cozart, Didi, Owings, Marwin, Gyorko at some point in the season. So there is that opportunity cost as well. He's been an utter failure. 

 

Didi?  You mean the one Villar is ranked ahead of in ESPN?  Cozart has finally gone back to his normal self and is barely ahead of Villar for the season now.  I'd pick Villar in a heart beat.  Marwin is a SS now?  Not on ESPN.  Owings and Gyrko were picked up in early April in any decent league.

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18 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

I said BUT an 8 team league.  You aren't going to do better in a 10 team league streaming unless luck falls your way.  At least 12 of the top SS's would already be taken anyway.  I am NOT defending him as a 3rd or 4th draft pick.  Of course he was a bust in that regard.  The discussion was whether he is better than streaming.

Ok. Bu I think you're misunderstanding just how easy it would be to stream for Villar's value.

Take a 10 team league. Even if we had a crystal ball and the other nine teams drafted and started all 27 of the top SS for the whole season (which is an impossibility), you would still at different points in the season be able to stream up to Villar's level just because of never having off days, injuries, etc. And like I said, you'd kill every other position since they're hoarding all the shortstops.

I mean think about it. even right now there are many top 25 SS who won't be there at the end of the season who you would have available to you.

Edited by Fiveohnine
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17 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

Didi?  You mean the one Villar is ranked ahead of in ESPN?  Cozart has finally gone back to his normal self and is barely ahead of Villar for the season now.  I'd pick Villar in a heart beat.  Marwin is a SS now?  Not on ESPN.  Owings and Gyrko were picked up in early April in any decent league.

 

Marwin is SS in Yahoo. Not everyone is playing ESPN 5x5 leagues. Leagues that count Ks, OPS, TB, Villar is garbage. Yes Gyrko and Owings were picked up in April. That is kind of the point and why there's frustration from his owners. You could have streamed or picked up Gyrko/Owings instead of wasting a pick on Villar. 

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7 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Ok. Bu I think you're misunderstanding just how easy it would be to stream for Villar's value.

Take a 10 team league. Even if we had a crystal ball and the other nine teams drafted and started all 27 of the top SS for the whole season (which is an impossibility), you would still at different points in the season be able to stream up to Villar's level just because of never having off days, injuries, etc. And like I said, you'd kill every other position since they're hoarding all the shortstops.

I mean think about it. even right now there are many top 25 SS who won't be there at the end of the season who you would have available to you.

 

Nah I'm not misunderstanding.  I think 17-20 (including multiple position guys) is probably a good estimate for how many SS's will actually be held in a 10 team league.  Most players after that level are worse, the same, or slightly better than Villar in every category but SB, where Villar usually dominates.  Sure, you could maybe pick a new one EVERY DAY and do better, but that could be said about a lot of positions with a lot of players, and isn't feasible or allowed in most leagues. You aren't going to do noticeably better by constantly switching Crawford, Peraza, and Arcia.  And even if you do maybe gain 1 or 2 points in PR throughout the season, I'd rather take the risk on Villar returning somewhere close to last season's form.

 

 

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