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Josh Staumont - SP KC


fawkes_mulder

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Haven't seen a thread on him.

 

I've heard 70 grade fastball and an improving curveball from my source. Sits mid 90s, can touch 99, but loses some control when he ramps up. 2 pitch pitcher all the way right now, so may end up an elite bullpen arm, but for now they're giving him a chance to start.

 

AFL, 7 scoreless innings so far. Wilson Karaman from Baseball Prospectus gave his fastball an 80 grade. Hyperbole, but that's great for his stock.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1356

 

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I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Staumont has one of the best pure FB/CB combos in the minor leagues, and he'll flash a CH to go with 'em. But the delivery hasn't gotten much crisper this year and he just hasn't shown signs of developing the kind of baseline command to stick in a rotation. High-leverage potential if he can take even minimal steps forward in simplifying and better repeating. 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30585

 

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[Redacted/edited -- Paywall] Oct 17 game, Josh went 4 IP, H, 2 K. Wilson opines that the industry consensus is an 80 FB and curve with whiff potential. Opines about future bullpen role but continued chance to be a SP. 

 

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On 10/20/2016 at 11:45 AM, fawkes_mulder said:

Haven't seen a thread on him.

 

I've heard 70 grade fastball and an improving curveball from my source. Sits mid 90s, can touch 99, but loses some control when he ramps up. 2 pitch pitcher all the way right now, so may end up an elite bullpen arm, but for now they're giving him a chance to start.

 

AFL, 7 scoreless innings so far. Wilson Karaman from Baseball Prospectus gave his fastball an 80 grade. Hyperbole, but that's great for his stock.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1356

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30585

 

Command is scary bad though. 105 walks in 130.1 innings.

My general rule is I want my SP prospects to be at least average in one of changeup and command - if they have one, I'm more comfortable gambling on the other one coming along. Staumont has neither. Nonetheless, his amazing FB/CB is enough to keep an eye on him in my opinion.

How's his delivery? Any chance he develops even 45 command?

Thanks for bringing this guy to my attention

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3 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

 

Command is scary bad though. 105 walks in 130.1 innings.

My general rule is I want my SP prospects to be at least average in one of changeup and command - if they have one, I'm more comfortable gambling on the other one coming along. Staumont has neither. Nonetheless, his amazing FB/CB is enough to keep an eye on him in my opinion.

How's his delivery? Any chance he develops even 45 command?

Thanks for bringing this guy to my attention

Well, he only has 1 walk through 7 innings so far in October...let's pray it's the start of something new. SSS of course.

 

My source likes his delivery when he throws mid 90s. Doesn't think he even needs to reach back, that's when things come apart. Extra velo at the expense of everything else. Look at someone like Carl Edwards Jr, his fastball is mid-90s, but live. Having a great fastball isn't just about velo, there's deception, extension, spin rate, and all sorts of other stuff.

 

I'll reply with further analysis as soon as I get a chance to get more info. But the word so far is that he has looked impressive in AFL.

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11 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Well, he only has 1 walk through 7 innings so far in October...let's pray it's the start of something new. SSS of course.

 

My source likes his delivery when he throws mid 90s. Doesn't think he even needs to reach back, that's when things come apart. Extra velo at the expense of everything else. Look at someone like Carl Edwards Jr, his fastball is mid-90s, but live. Having a great fastball isn't just about velo, there's deception, extension, spin rate, and all sorts of other stuff.

 

I'll reply with further analysis as soon as I get a chance to get more info. But the word so far is that he has looked impressive in AFL.

So what you're saying is that his fastball has more life (and he has better command of it) when he dials it back a bit?

I'd be willing to have him dial it back in exchange for command even if it made his fastball worse, but if added life would help compensate for part or all of the velo loss then he REALLY needs to get the Koufax treatment.

I'll definitely be keeping an eye on his walk rate

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9 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

So what you're saying is that his fastball has more life (and he has better command of it) when he dials it back a bit?

I'd be willing to have him dial it back in exchange for command even if it made his fastball worse, but if added life would help compensate for part or all of the velo loss then he REALLY needs to get the Koufax treatment.

I'll definitely be keeping an eye on his walk rate

Me too. Let's see if improved command sticks, he's tweaked his delivery.

 

https://kingsofkauffman.com/2016/10/19/kc-royals-josh-staumont-continues-excel-afl/

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/al/kansas-city-royals/pleskoff-scouting-report-josh-staumont/

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For what it's worth, in 8 outings since August 21st (6 AA starts and 2 AFL starts - 41.1 IP) he's had a 2.83 BB/9

He has an 8.0% walk rate over 162 BF in that time period. Walk rate for pitchers stabilizes at 170 BF (which is to say it becomes as much signal as noise at that point). We're pretty much there with the "new Staumont". Combined with the mechanics change (anyone have a timeline on that?), I'd say that, while it's still a small sample, there definitely a decent chunk of signal in this sample. Maybe he's figuring it out?

@fawkes_mulder, when you said "only one walk through seven innings", I completely brushed it off - it's only seven innings, after all. But doing some more digging, it's a little more than that. And with his stuff, merely decent command would be enough.

By the way, he hasn't sacrificed any whiffability to harness the command - he's posted a 12.63 K/9 in that time period.

Could Staumont be a big time "helium" prospect in 2017? 80 grade fastballs are few and far between, and pairing them with a nice breaker is a special arsenal.

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@mysonx3, I think Staumont is an excellent flyer in deep dynasties. There is obviously plenty of risk but if his tweaks prove to stick, we'be likely got, at minimum, a wipeout reliever, and possibly something with a much higher ceiling. The 2 pitches may play as a starter if he is mixing speeds/movement with the fastball. Lance Lynn works as a starter and he throws pretty much only fastballs.

 

Great digging on the improved BB rate in his last several starts.

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3 BB in 3.1 IP yesterday (16 BF). Also 3 wild pitches. 6 Ks though.

I'm not expecting perfect control from Staumont, so there will be some outings like this. I'm just really hoping it's a blip in the new trend, not a sign that this new trend is the blip

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On 10/24/2016 at 7:50 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Fawkes has been such a great addition to this forum, and he plays at least the same three fantasy sports I do as well.

 

 

Thanks bud, much appreciated. It's a good forum around here.

 

There are some things I prefer about reddit, and others I prefer here (especially the organization). Most importantly though, the content here is solid.

 

There's a nice camaraderie on this subforum, especially. IMO this is the best place to chat about minor league baseball on the internet.

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  • 3 months later...

picked up staumont in my minors draft over the weekend. hadn't seen this thread when i did it, but had dug up some of the same information, about the delivery changes and improved walk rate late in the year.

 

alec hansen is kind of a sneaky hot name in the prospect drafts, as a guy with top-of-the-line stuff but a reputation for bad command who looked better after the white sox coaching staff got their hands on him. hansen went early in my draft, so i snagged staumont a little bit later, as a similar profile (huge stuff, awful walk rate, but hints of recent improvement) who's already a little further up the ladder. 

 

staumont's profile seems a little lower (even though BA rated him the #1 royals prospect, which kinda blows his cover a little) because he wasn't drafted this year and because his command problems earlier in the year happened in the pros rather than college like hansen, so they mask his late-summer improvements when you look at the stats. 

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  • 2 months later...

Good start to the season, apparently. This from BA:

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Josh Staumont, rhp, Royals. Kansas City’s top prospect had quite a night, whiffing 12, which tied a career high, and allowing just one hit in six innings for his first Triple-A win as Omaha beat Round Rock (Rangers) 3-0. Almost as importantly, Staumont walked just two and landed 58 of his 92 pitches for strikes. If he can be consistent with his control, Staumont has the elements of a front-end starter with two plus pitches.

 

 

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thought this was a pretty good article on him from back in the spring

 

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article117087383.html

 

seems like a smart dude, which is encouraging. i also like that he only started throwing as hard as he does relatively recently, so the command problems could be seen as just a transitional period (the story suggests this) rather than a guy with jason neighborgall-style baked-in control issues

 

his first start of the year was bad, but it was in colorado springs, and i liked that it was bad more because he got hit than because of walks. getting hit usually isn't his problem

 

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8 hours ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Any idea of an ETA?

 

purely my own thoughts but i would imagine the royals would want to see him keep the walks down to a reasonable level for a while. i'm not sure what "a while" is - just whatever they find convincing. or, if they get desperate enough for a starter. 

 

my best guess would be around the trade deadline - if the royals wind up sellers it's easy to imagine some rotation room opening up at that point, and if they're in the mix they may well need him by then. all depends on him continuing to improve his command though. 

 

he backslid a little tonight - 3 walks through 5, along with his usual 7 strikeouts. 5 hits, 1 earned. neither wonderful nor terrible

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  • 2 weeks later...

Last night's start:

 

6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4K

 

Control was a bit shaky to begin the game but he settled down nicely. Wind was very strong and seemed to aid a few extra base hits in the early innings. 

 

Left a few balls up in the zone, but overall another solid outing. Love this guy. 

 

Beat writer says Staumont was passed on as a replacement for Kennedy in part because they want to give him an extended look in the rotation. Could be next up?

 

 

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i'm still expecting it to be more along the lines of post trade deadline after they sell and staumont shows an extended run of at least playably decent control, although one too many rotation injuries can change any team's plans in a hurry

 

 

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Last night's start:

 

5 IP, 0 ER, 5BB, 10 K

 

Walks continue to be an issue, but hes actually improving in that area.

 

2016 (A): 73 IP @ 8.26 BB/9 with a 7.6% K-BB% and 1.77 WHIP

2016 (AA): 50.1 IP @ 6.62 BB/9 with a 15.9% K-BB% and 1.57 WHIP

2017 (AAA): 37.1 IP @ 5.54 BB/9 with a 17.6% K-BB% and 1.31 WHIP

 

Based on my research (looking at game logs) he's had 3 BAD starts in his last 14 tries dating back to the second half of last year (some of his improvements in 2016 were mentioned near the beginning of this thread). For the most part he's looked pretty good.

 

To add to this a bit more:

 

 

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Looks like the end of my last post got cut off:

 

High k/9 with a relatively low acquisition cost (along with poor/injured K.C starters) make him a pretty exciting flier IMO.

 

As far as comps go, I cant help but think of Rob Stephenson. Elite FB velocity, but control is lost when he needs to reach back for that extra pop. I think thats worst case scenerio for Staumont, a failed starter that provides high k/9 out of the bullpen.

 

But he will get his chance this summer as a starter. Excited to see how he does with the opportunity.

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