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Trea Turner 2017 Outlook


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5 hours ago, Gumbo_Ghost said:

I'm sure this is somewhere in the thread, but I'm lazy.

 

Take out @Coors

29 Games

22-119, hitting .185

5 Walks, 33 Ks

2 HR, 13 Runs, 9 RBI, 5 Doubles

 

Ooof !

 

 

I've referenced this multiple times and just get shot down.  People like to ignore facts with the word "patience".

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Not pleased at all - reason I went for Trea in Roto was he could get me a large amount of steals without tanking my AVG/OBP like players like Billy Hamilton, Jarrod Dtson, etc are said to do. That's why he was worth the high price tag for me and looks like I was duped so far. It's really hard to win or even compete in the OBP/AVG category when you have someone you are starting everyday with an OBP of 0.265, 8th worst in baseball of all qualified hitters. 

Edited by Joesh
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yeesh... to this point I could not have been more wrong about the guy.

he's super talented.

is the injury lingering? is he pressing due to the stratospheric expectations?

 

in terms of a Buy-Low, he's got to have the highest disparity (discrepancy?? me english no good) between his current production, and what he, theoretically, can produce. 

 

I just offered a James Paxton-headed 4-for-1 package for Trea (in a keeper). Might seem foolish, but a guy with 2B/SS/OF eligibility, with 50+ steal speed, 15+ homer pop, and leads off for the best lineup in baseball has gobs of value, should things start to click. 

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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2 hours ago, DemOrioles said:

 

I've referenced this multiple times and just get shot down.  People like to ignore facts with the word "patience".

I mean, what do you want? People preaching patience are looking ahead and suggesting holding him whereas you're not making any suggestion at all.

 

I don't see any glaring problems with the underlying numbers. Pitchers are attacking him a bit more and throwing more fastballs, but he's not popping up, grounding out, or swinging and missing at an alarming rate compared to last year. The biggest difference I see is his .388 BABIP from last year sits at .284 so far this year, as Street Sharks pointed out. To me, this looks a little like a young player getting adjusted to and a lot like a player having some bad luck. I'm going to suggest... wait for it... PATIENCE. Hell, I'd venture he's an excellent trade target for anybody that doesn't have him.

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5 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

I mean, what do you want? People preaching patience are looking ahead and suggesting holding him whereas you're not making any suggestion at all.

 

That's not really fair... he actually suggested dropping him.  

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On pace for 16 HR / 44 SB during a slow start for him. That's impressive to me. 

 

The problem with Turner is that unless he goes God mode, he's going to disappoint people. I'm lucky enough to have him in a dynasty so I'm pleased he hasn't totally crapped the bed so far. But for redraft you knew he was an extremely risky pick. 

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1 minute ago, DannyMcPot said:

On pace for 16 HR / 44 SB during a slow start for him. That's impressive to me. 

 

The problem with Turner is that unless he goes God mode, he's going to disappoint people. I'm lucky enough to have him in a dynasty so I'm pleased he hasn't totally crapped the bed so far. But for redraft you knew he was an extremely risky pick. 

I don't think its asking much to want an OBP higher than Billy Hamilton's....who is sitting 40 pts higher. I don't expect him to be hitting 300, but 270 seems like a reasonable expectation, with an OBP around 320.

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3 minutes ago, mtblock said:

I don't think its asking much to want an OBP higher than Billy Hamilton's....who is sitting 40 pts higher. I don't expect him to be hitting 300, but 270 seems like a reasonable expectation, with an OBP around 320.

 

Yeah, I'm coming from H2H categories so he's been serviceable for me. It's still very early in the year and we all know what he's capable of.

 

For a league that never adjusted to him coupled with a hammy injury to begin the year, I'm not worried at all. 

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He was always going to slip a bit this year. Last year was so BABIP driven, it's rare for anyone to do that let alone a rookie. Plus an offseason to look at his weaknesses to attack, not suprised at all that his numbers are more pedestrian so far. 

 

He's a great talent and will still provide loads of runs and steals, and has the power to reach 15 homers. So still great production in all, but his AVG won't start rising close to .300 until he starts walking more. He has to make the adjustment back.

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Look who makes the list of players with the biggest gap between hard-hit balls and expected production in this MLB.com article. This lends support to Street Shark's post above.

 

Biggest gap between hard-hit and productive batted balls in 2017
17.3 percent -- Bradley, Red Sox
13.7 percent -- Joc Pederson, Dodgers
12.5 percent -- Yandy Diaz, Indians
12.4 percent -- Joey Gallo, Rangers
11.4 percent -- Manny Machado, Orioles
10.5 percent -- Greg Bird, Yankees
10.5 percent -- Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
9.9 percent -- Trea Turner, Nationals

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/232173126/jackie-bradley-hitting-hard-despite-slump/

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Stop panicking people. Counting numbers are there. He is a young pup. 

 

Sorry if if you feel you overpaid 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

still thinks he comes close to 20/50

power is there

Still on pace for 18 hr, 81 rbi, 102 r, 42 sb, 7 3b, 35 2b for a full season ( assuming 600 abs)

 

imagine if he was hitting even .280 ... much less returns to that .300 mark we all hoped for

 

those numbers would look incredible ?

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4 minutes ago, nips said:

Still on pace for 18 hr, 81 rbi, 102 r, 42 sb, 7 3b, 35 2b for a full season ( assuming 600 abs)

 

imagine if he was hitting even .280 ... much less returns to that .300 mark we all hoped for

 

those numbers would look incredible ?

yea thats crazy considering he hasnt been locked in in any aspect of his game for a long stretch 

hadnt even looked at his counting stats and that is unreal they are that high for how avg he has been (fantasy wise) compared to what he was doing last year

 

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13 minutes ago, nips said:

Still on pace for 18 hr, 81 rbi, 102 r, 42 sb, 7 3b, 35 2b for a full season ( assuming 600 abs)

 

imagine if he was hitting even .280 ... much less returns to that .300 mark we all hoped for

 

those numbers would look incredible ?

 

3 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

yea thats crazy considering he hasnt been locked in in any aspect of his game for a long stretch 

hadnt even looked at his counting stats and that is unreal they are that high for how avg he has been (fantasy wise) compared to what he was doing last year

 

 

Well, Im hoping he has a 2nd half like last year. Maybe he is a VERY SLOW starter...

Edited by Gryfter
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39 minutes ago, nips said:
20 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

still thinks he comes close to 20/50

power is there

Stop panicking people. Counting numbers are there. He is a young pup. 

 

Sorry if if you feel you overpaid 

 

 

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To put that in perspective Altuve's season highs in these categories...

 

24 hr, 96 rbi, 108 r, 56 sb, 5 3b, 47 2b

 

the 24 bomb season and the 56 bag season were not the same. And both significantly higher than his other highs

 

(9 more bombs, 18 more bags)

 

 

Trea will be straight 

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21 minutes ago, nips said:

Still on pace for 18 hr, 81 rbi, 102 r, 42 sb, 7 3b, 35 2b for a full season ( assuming 600 abs)

 

imagine if he was hitting even .280 ... much less returns to that .300 mark we all hoped for

 

those numbers would look incredible ?

To put that in perspective Altuve's season highs in these categories...

 

24 hr, 96 rbi, 108 r, 56 sb, 5 3b, 47 2b

 

the 24 bomb season and the 56 bag season were not the same. And both significantly higher than his other highs

 

(9 more bombs, 18 more bags)

 

Trea will be straight 

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