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James Paxton 2017 Outlook


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6 minutes ago, mcbane said:

Is that good or bad?

 

and the broadcast called it a changeup. Was it actually a curve?

Very good.  To have the balls to throw a 3-2 curve to a top 5 hitter in baseball with runners on 2nd and 3rd 1 out.  That's the sort of growth I wanted to see.  That was ballsy.  And it was definitely a curveball.

Edited by Cmilne23
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10 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Very good.  To have the balls to throw a 3-2 curve to a top 5 hitter in baseball with runners on 2nd and 3rd 1 out.  That's the sort of growth I wanted to see.  That was ballsy.  And it was definitely a curveball.

He did the same thing against Beltran, who doesn't look very good.

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Type Velo Pitches Whiffs SwStr%

  FA   96.0     59         12      20.3%

  KC  80.6     27           5       18.5%

  FC   88.4    12           1        8.3%

  CH  87.8     2             0       0.0%

 

Holy cow that fastball whiff rate (previous career high for fastball whiffs in a game was nine). Curve looks very nice as well. Cutter location was a little off (see below) which explains the low whiff rate, though remember we're dealing with samples so small that one additional whiff (and there may well have been a check swing or two that could've been called a swing and weren't) would've bumped the cutter whiff rate from a mediocre 8.3% to an elite 16.6%

AhMEbMH.png

Edited by mysonx3
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Alright, more Paxton related notes now that Brooks has the data from that start. I basically went through all the changes I noted in my offseason article on him to see if the trends continued. Here's the noteworthy stuff:

1. His release point was obviously still lower than in the past, but it matched up much closer to where he was at the end of 2016 (when he pitched like an ace) than where he was when he first got called up in 2016 (when he had great peripherals but was getting hit hard). So release point is where we want to see it - much lower than early in his career but not quite as low as when he first made the switch 

2. Velo was right in line with last year, though not sure how the changes in velo measurement impact that.

3. Fastball had an extra inch of rise, perhaps contributing to the boatload of whiffs on it

4. Curveball, which already gained a ton of movement last year had an extra inch of drop and FOUR extra inches of horizontal movement.

5. Cutter had a bit more movement in both directions, but he had some trouble locating it.

6. Fastball command was ON POINT

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4 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Alright, more Paxton related notes now that Brooks has the data from that start. I basically went through all the changes I noted in my offseason article on him to see if the trends continued. Here's the noteworthy stuff:

1. His release point was obviously still lower than in the past, but it matched up much closer to where he was at the end of 2016 (when he pitched like an ace) than where he was when he first got called up in 2016 (when he had great peripherals but was getting hit hard). So release point is where we want to see it - much lower than early in his career but not quite as low as when he first made the switch 

2. Velo was right in line with last year, though not sure how the changes in velo measurement impact that.

3. Fastball had an extra inch of rise, perhaps contributing to the boatload of whiffs on it

4. Curveball, which already gained a ton of movement last year had an extra inch of drop and FOUR extra inches of horizontal movement.

5. Cutter had a bit more movement in both directions, but he had some trouble locating it.

6. Fastball command was ON POINT

The main thing I noticed was location.  He painted the corners all night especially with his fastball, only missing a few times.  Some were borderline strikes, which more generous calls would have translated to an even better results.  All in all, it was an encouraging outing and the real test will be when he faces the same lineup on his next turn.  

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

the real test will be when he faces the same lineup on his next turn.  

Very true.

I'll be at that game, which I'm pretty pumped for.

I wonder if part of the reason he didn't go to his cutter as often was because he was "saving it" for the next start, when he'll also face the Astros? Just a thought. Maybe he works in the cutter and change more often next time?

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Just now, mysonx3 said:

Very true.

I'll be at that game, which I'm pretty pumped for.

I wonder if part of the reason he didn't go to his cutter as often was because he was "saving it" for the next start, when he'll also face the Astros? Just a thought. Maybe he works in the cutter and change more often next time?

That will be fun.  I was also surprised at the lack of the change usage considering all the righties the Stros trotted out there.  Maybe he didn't have the feel for it?  It's a good sign that he still did so well without his best stuff.  Also, hopefully Zunino does a better job blocking those curves in the dirt. 

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Fastball spin rate on Wednesday was 100 RPMs higher than last year, which in turn was 100 RPMs higher than 2015.

Curveball was up 65 RPM from last year, which was already 200 RPM higher than 2015.

 

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Another SP that will make me sleep better at night after going hitter heavy through first dozen picks at draft.  Nightly night. See you guys tomorrow.

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