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James Paxton 2017 Outlook


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I wish there had been more haters in this thread in whose faces I could rub this early season success, but alas I'm left to celebrate merely Paxton's success and not the downfall of all his doubters.

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4 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

I wish there had been more haters in this thread in whose faces I could rub this early season success, but alas I'm left to celebrate merely Paxton's success and not the downfall of all his doubters.

Unforunately you only usually get believers, as that's why people go on there in the first place lol.

 

There was a lot of doubters around though, luckily I wasn't one of them either. Just wish I'd got him in both my leagues!

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Alright, alright, alright I'll be that guy.  Let's dig deep into James career dating back to college.  He's literally been hurt every single season of his career from college on up to professional baseball.  So with that said do you sell high or ride this out?  I'm a believer in his talent, he's definitely taken some big steps forward with maturity and pitch sequencing.  But would we be naive to dismiss the checkered injury history and send out some offers to cash in?  

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4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Alright, alright, alright I'll be that guy.  Let's dig deep into James career dating back to college.  He's literally been hurt every single season of his career from college on up to professional baseball.  So with that said do you sell high or ride this out?  I'm a believer in his talent, he's definitely taken some big steps forward with maturity and pitch sequencing.  But would we be naive to dismiss the checkered injury history and send out some offers to cash in?  

I don't think we can dismiss it, but I really do believe that his checkered injury history has been at least partially influenced by the timing issue he had in the past which has largely been alleviated in his overhauled mechanical. So while I don't think we can dismiss his injury history, I don't think we can take it at face value either.

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8 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Alright, alright, alright I'll be that guy.  Let's dig deep into James career dating back to college.  He's literally been hurt every single season of his career from college on up to professional baseball.  So with that said do you sell high or ride this out?  I'm a believer in his talent, he's definitely taken some big steps forward with maturity and pitch sequencing.  But would we be naive to dismiss the checkered injury history and send out some offers to cash in?  

I was thinking this same exact thing this morning. I don't think it's a bad idea at all to see what kind of value this guy has in trade discussions. I'm a huge believer in the talent, so I'd want a nice return on him, but his value has got to be pretty sky high atm relative to where he was drafted. I don't think it's out of the question that you could get a guy like Carlos Martinez or Justin Verlander for him right now. The first guy who actually comes to mind is Corey Kluber, but I'd be very surprised if you could get that done. But hey, ya never know. 

Edited by Rammer28
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5 hours ago, Rammer28 said:

I was thinking this same exact thing this morning. I don't think it's a bad idea at all to see what kind of value this guy has in trade discussions. I'm a huge believer in the talent, so I'd want a nice return on him, but his value has got to be pretty sky high atm relative to where he was drafted. I don't think it's out of the question that you could get a guy like Carlos Martinez or Justin Verlander for him right now. The first guy who actually comes to mind is Corey Kluber, but I'd be very surprised if you could get that done. But hey, ya never know. 

I have Verlander and CMart as well as Paxton. If I didn't have Paxton...not sure if I would go for this. I there is a newer fantasy player out there that is now hesitant with CMart or doesn't know that Verly get killed by Cleveland, then this might work. But two of those guys have a track record.

 

However, if I am a Paxton owner, I am not selling for anything less than that. I would aim for the DeGrom/Verlander/Martinez grouping.

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I'm not as sold on C-Mart as some (and his BB rate this year scares me), and obviously I'm very high on Paxton, but yeah if I could get deGrom/Verlander for him I'd pull the trigger (with much sadness). I don't feel like you could pull that off though. Maybe I'm wrong.

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Just now, jdbob11 said:

Am I missing something?  Are you guys saying it would take DeGrom and another player for you to deal Paxton?

No, saying if we're dealing Paxton for another SP it would have to be someone in the deGrom range

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4 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

Am I missing something?  Are you guys saying it would take DeGrom and another player for you to deal Paxton?

Really what I am saying is if I am a Paxton owner, I would aim for DeGrom. If I am a DeGrom owner, I probably wouldn't take that.

 

Ultimately this is at an impasse, and I doubt much would get done unless Paxton starts showing this into late May (obvoisuly not scoreless, but dominance). I think Paxton will get very undervalued, and everyone tends to love their SP.

 

I think Paxton will end the year better than CMart. Maybe Verlander. Potentially DeGrom. All health things considered though, each of those have concerns. In reality, I am probably just going along for the ride. I drafted Offense heavy this year and lucked out with a few SPs, including Paxton.

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4 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

If I am a Degrom owner and you are offering me Paxton and another solid pitcher to go along with him I would consider it.  No way Paxton is bringing a legit ace in return. 

Agreed. A month from now, that may be a different story, but Paxton's issue is that he has not tack record of sustained success. Even another month won't get a DeGrom owner to consider, and you would likely need another piece. Come June, that piece may just be a lower tier OF, but it will probably need to be something.

 

Every Paxton owner is going to think they struck gold and will want the world.

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I don't trust DeGrom ... would not take him for Paxton.   I think the Mets have a coaching staff and front office that doesn't know how to handle or properly protect their starting pitching.

 

It would take a top 15-20 hitter to wrest Paxton away from me right now.   Putting out some feelers.   I expect JPax to be an ace and a top pitcher next year as well, and for Tyler Glasnow to follow the same path 2-3 years from now.  Flashes of brilliance, but it takes a while for these taller guys to refine their pitching arsenal and control at the MLB level.

Edited by BBWeekly
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6 minutes ago, BBWeekly said:

I don't trust DeGrom ... would not take him for Paxton.   I think the Mets have a coaching staff and front office that doesn't know how to handle or properly protect their starting pitching.

 

It would take a top 15-20 hitter to wrest Paxton away from me right now.   Putting out some feelers.   I expect JPax to be an ace and a top pitcher next year as well, and for Tyler Glasnow to follow the same path 2-3 years from now.  Flashes of brilliance, but it takes a while for these taller guys to refine their pitching arsenal and control at the MLB level.

Degrom has a better track record than Paxton.  Paxton has the possibility to be legit.  Degrom already is. 

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19 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

Degrom has a better track record than Paxton.  Paxton has the possibility to be legit.  Degrom already is. 

 

oh man... if I could flip Paxton for deGrom I'd be soooo happy

Paxton looks untouchable. But deGrom is a proven stud. think I saw a stat yesterday that he has the 2nd lowest ERA over the last three years among qualified starting pitchers, behind Kershaw 

 

in fact, just offered the trade with this message:

Paxton for deGrom?

Paxton the #1 overall player right now.

Also, 1st round keeper versus 12th round

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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On 4/16/2017 at 3:11 PM, mysonx3 said:

I wish there had been more haters in this thread in whose faces I could rub this early season success, but alas I'm left to celebrate merely Paxton's success and not the downfall of all his doubters.

Kudos on sharing the Paxton love in the off season.  Your passion in asserting this was going to be his year and believing in those changes and he could be your SP1 was a strong endorsement and changed my mind as far as his past inconsistencies.  

 

I was able to get him in the 13th round and hope he maintains his health.  Full speed ahead on James Paxton.

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Paxton is the real deal. Thanks again to MySonX3 and Taobball for supporting him this offseason. I own him in all my leagues and it's great.

 

That being said, it's highly unlikely you get fair value for Paxton at this point. For breakout players, I think best policy is to hang on to them and maximize profit, since you hopefully invested very little in terms of draft pick value to get them.

 

Another consideration for me, personally, is that fantasy baseball is just more fun when you own and keep players that no one expected would be this good.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

For breakout players, I think best policy is to hang on to them and maximize profit, since you hopefully invested very little in terms of draft pick value to get them.

 

I get that.

on the other hand, if you can flip Paxton for, say, a 5th round talent, isn't that, in essence, like you had two 5th round draft picks? 

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The discussed reason/s Paxton can't be currently traded for a top pitcher(player) is the lack of longevity and injury history. As has been noted, I think the injury history has been minimized by his mechanical changes, and I also believe he's the real deal based on the track record since those changes. I personally believe that every pitcher is a walking/throwing DL stint, and would put Degrom's injury possibility right up there with Paxton's, especially considering the Mets x-factor for injuries.

 

In the spirit of buy low/sell high, Paxton should be one of the most traded players in the league, but since his owners are all doing dances in the streets I'd imagine he's on the opposite end of that spectrum. He's probably being bought more as a buy high, than he is being sold as a sell high, as much as that is splitting hairs. I, personally, have gotten some pretty weak offers for him thus far.  

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