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James Paxton 2017 Outlook


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On 4/16/2017 at 11:04 PM, Cmilne23 said:

Alright, alright, alright I'll be that guy.  Let's dig deep into James career dating back to college.  He's literally been hurt every single season of his career from college on up to professional baseball.  So with that said do you sell high or ride this out?  I'm a believer in his talent, he's definitely taken some big steps forward with maturity and pitch sequencing.  But would we be naive to dismiss the checkered injury history and send out some offers to cash in?  

Did anyone listen to me?  :(

 

So sad for fantasy owners and Mariner fans.  Most hyped year in awhile and Ms have lost their 1,2,3 starters in the span of a month.  James has never stayed healthy at any point of his career so this shouldn't be a huge shock.  Just sad what the state of pitching is in MLB now.  Young bright arms just drop like flies.  

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3 minutes ago, Sun Tzu said:

 

If he comes back that quick, run, don't walk to trade him after a good start or 2.  He can't stay healthy over the course of a season.  

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1 minute ago, Cmilne23 said:

Did anyone listen to me?  :(

 

So sad for fantasy owners and Mariner fans.  Most hyped year in awhile and Ms have lost their 1,2,3 starters in the span of a month.  James has never stayed healthy at any point of his career so this shouldn't be a huge shock.  Just sad what the state of pitching is in MLB now.  Young bright arms just drop like flies.  

Seriously not the time to post this 

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This is why I avoided drafting pitching high. Really, its a roulette on who gets hurt. Bats are much more predictable.

 

Hopefully this is something small. SO far I have lost three starts this week from pitchers, so frustrating.

 

Obviously not a drop. Hold and lets see.

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4 minutes ago, mtblock said:

This is why I avoided drafting pitching high. Really, its a roulette on who gets hurt. Bats are much more predictable.

 

Hopefully this is something small. SO far I have lost three starts this week from pitchers, so frustrating.

 

Obviously not a drop. Hold and lets see.

 

Same, I took Mad Max with my 2nd pick and than didn't draft another sp until the 9th round . I have already traded Scherzer for a bat. 

Edited by chud12
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20 minutes ago, Sun Tzu said:

 

I feel like this is the first injury report that doesn't lie to us and say, yeah he'll be ready the first day he is eligible. We knew Paxton wouldn't hold up. Obviously we expected this later in the year, but if it really is a 2-3 week thing, then I'm okay with it. Hopefully it doesn't ruin his momentum.

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36 minutes ago, mtblock said:

This is why I avoided drafting pitching high. Really, its a roulette on who gets hurt. Bats are much more predictable.

 

Hopefully this is something small. SO far I have lost three starts this week from pitchers, so frustrating.

 

Obviously not a drop. Hold and lets see.

 

Apparently someone who goes in the 10th-12th round is drafting pitching high now? You're obviously right about bats being more predictable but acting like drafting him was a mistake is just silly. Everyone knew what he was capable of and that he's a high injury risk, hence his ADP.

 

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51 minutes ago, yoda said:

Step off the ledge... obviously not good but it could be minor.

Anything is possible, but when does a forearm strain ever end well for a pitcher? Chances are this is either serious, or its called minor and he returns after a couple weeks and immediately re-injures the arm.

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I love Paxton. I drafted him in my 14-teamer in 2014 and 2015, and traded for him last year when someone beat me to him. My arch-nemesis drafted him this year so I didn't get him.

 

That said, there are a couple of things that stand out about him to me.  One is that he can have long stretches (say, 8-10 starts) of complete dominance only to be followed by a ten run, 1.2 inning implosion that will make his overall stats look simply decent. 

 

The second is that he gets hurt all the time. But it's more than that--when he gets hurt, the time he's out is three or four times longer than expected.  One of those years, I think, he strained a ligament in his finger and missed two months. I don't think he is doing the Chris Brown thing (milking or making up injuries), just that he's a slow healer.

 

So be careful and keep your eyes open with him.

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Pitchers from last year who went on the DL with a forearm strain:

 

4-27-2016    Andrew Heaney Angels (missed the rest of the season)
6-14-2016    Sean Manaea A's (only missed 16 days)
7-5-2016    Wade Davis Royals (missed 15 days)
9-22-2016    Mashairo Tanaka (shut down for rest of season)

 

In 2015 Michael Pineda spent 28 days on the DL with a forearm strain

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4 minutes ago, Short Porch said:

Pitchers from last year who went on the DL with a forearm strain:

 

4-27-2016    Andrew Heaney Angels (missed the rest of the season)
6-14-2016    Sean Manaea A's (only missed 16 days)
7-5-2016    Wade Davis Royals (missed 15 days)
9-22-2016    Mashairo Tanaka (shut down for rest of season)

 

In 2015 Michael Pineda spent 28 days on the DL with a forearm strain

This list is incomplete, and completely ignores all the guys who had Tommy John. Why aren't you listing all the guys who had TJ? A torn UCL is basically a severe forearm strain right?

 

Your list is just the guys who in hindsight turned out to only have had a minor forearm strain. But forearm and/or elbow strain is the intial diagnosis almost every time TJ is needed or there is a tear in the UCL that requires months on the shelf.

Edited by cs3
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40 minutes ago, cs3 said:

This list is incomplete, and completely ignores all the guys who had Tommy John. Why aren't you listing all the guys who had TJ? A torn UCL is basically a severe forearm strain right?

 

Your list is just the guys who in hindsight turned out to only have had a minor forearm strain. But forearm and/or elbow strain is the intial diagnosis almost every time TJ is needed or there is a tear in the UCL that requires months on the shelf.

Jeez.  I just wanted to get some idea of what we are looking at here.  I am not writing a book on the subject.  So I just googled forearm strain and pitcher and used the 2016 time frame to give everyone an idea of a possible length of time he might be on the DL.  I didn't omit anyone from my search and I even included Heaney who ultimately missed the whole year last year.  In my search I stumbled upon the Pineda 2015 DL stint.  I am sorry my list doesn't go back 10 years so you can get a more detailed look at a forearm strain.

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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I really hope he only misses two starts like Dipoto said. Paxton has most likely been the best starter on most owner's teams.

 

@mysonx3 I hope you're holding up!

All sings are positive. He could be a sell after a good start or two.  But I will hold.  I have a feeling he will be fine.

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15 hours ago, Baseball Or Bust said:

its funny how they can tell its a "grade 1 strain" without an MRI or any imaging, 

It's a trick they learned from the Mets.

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