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James Paxton 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

Anyone who can strikeout Mike Trout four times in a game gets my attention. Im pretty confident I can get him as a SP4 in my league.

 

12th round price tag and on the rise most likely. I don't see the harm in 10 to 11 if it gets serious hype. He's one of the few guys that I've already seen being reached for in a few drafts I have already done. 

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3 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

 

12th round price tag and on the rise most likely. I don't see the harm in 10 to 11 if it gets serious hype. He's one of the few guys that I've already seen being reached for in a few drafts I have already done. 

Where are you seeing this info? NFBC has him around pick 200

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The thing that concerns me about Paxton is the 5 cent head rumors.  I remember several Seattle fans on this board repeatedly saying that Paxton completely crumbles when he faces adversity in a game.

 

Haven't watched him enough in person to know if that's true or not, and the arsenal is so good I'll be buying for the price tag... just slightly hesitant to put him in a position where I'd have to count on him.

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Add in constant injury concerns and color me surprised to hear people are reaching for him. He's certainly capable of putting up some nice games when things fall his way and he's healthy, but there's no way I draft him where he must be counted on.

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58 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Where are you seeing this info? NFBC has him around pick 200

 

These were Fantrax leagues (12th round 2 times, 13th round 1 time and these are just my experiences) so it's still early to see who preferences who more but why wouldn't a breakout candidate like Paxton challenge someone for their 12th-13th round picks instead of a guy like Dallas Keuchel. 

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1 hour ago, JFS179 said:

The thing that concerns me about Paxton is the 5 cent head rumors.  I remember several Seattle fans on this board repeatedly saying that Paxton completely crumbles when he faces adversity in a game.

 

Haven't watched him enough in person to know if that's true or not, and the arsenal is so good I'll be buying for the price tag... just slightly hesitant to put him in a position where I'd have to count on him.

I've watched him in person a good amount, and this is something I've never personally noticed though I've definitely heard it thrown around a lot in Mariners circles.

It seems like, if that was the case, he would struggle with men in scoring position, but that's not the case - .296 wOBA with RISP vs .293 overall. He's also allows lower wOBAs in high leverage than in medium or low leverage, which doesn't really line up with that narrative.

Even if that was the case (and it's a possibility, just not something I've observed), I'd like to think his improved arsenal and command will give him more confidence.

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1 hour ago, TribeFoo said:

Add in constant injury concerns and color me surprised to hear people are reaching for him. He's certainly capable of putting up some nice games when things fall his way and he's healthy, but there's no way I draft him where he must be counted on.

Re: injury concerns.

Paxton overhauled his delivery last year, and one of the changes was an improvement in his timing. In my opinion, his poor timing (arm behind the rest of his body) has been a large cause of the injury concern with him. It's much better now.

I have a side by side of his old and new deliveries and where his arm is at foot plant that I'm using for an article about Paxton, I'll try to figure out the best way to post them here

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1 hour ago, motown magic said:

I agree with the last poster. Also puts too many on base for my liking. Has to show me improvement before I have him blowing up my stats

I actually think WHIP will be one of his strongest categories. He really improved his walk rate to the point where it's pretty elite, and his H/9 was driven up by a .347 BABIP, well above his career average (.303)

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Mariners fan and have been watching this guy (and drafting him in leagues) since he first came up. I think the 5 cent head thing mostly comes from his demeanor and appearance. He has a hang-dog look and he displays no emotion. When he gets hit hard it seems like he looks defeated but that's pretty much how he looks all the time. He's also had a number of injuries that seem to put him on the shelf for longer periods of time than normal and that plays into the narrative as well. He was quite good before his mechanical changes but always seemed to pick up an injury right as he was about to take off.

 

He's 28 and has cracked 100 innings once (121 last year) so that is certainly not a great fact. 

 

The Mariners will be counting on him to carry a significant load this year and I really hope he does, but I can't help being skeptical. Consider him a high upside coin flip. You may get 185 innings of #2 starter or 75 innings and a lot of frustration.

 

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I drafted him moments ago in a 15 team fantrax league at pick 153. He's my SP2. 

 

I'm a Seattle area guy and I think he has considerable upside. He's risky, but that's the kind of SP I buy in volume and usually get a couple to pan out each year. 

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10 hours ago, countseth said:

I drafted him moments ago in a 15 team fantrax league at pick 153. He's my SP2. 

 

I'm a Seattle area guy and I think he has considerable upside. He's risky, but that's the kind of SP I buy in volume and usually get a couple to pan out each year. 

 

 

He's your SP2 at pick 153? You must have a beast of an offense if you waited THAT long for pitching, geez.

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4 hours ago, jimbo504 said:

 

 

He's your SP2 at pick 153? You must have a beast of an offense if you waited THAT long for pitching, geez.

 

Yeah, I don't do early SP.  Apparently no one else did either.  It is 15 teams, so that was only round 11.  But I think only one or two teams had 3 SP at that point, and everyone else had 2 SP besides myself and another guy with only 1 SP.  So it wasn't too far outside the norm.

 

I just think there's too many high-upside SP in the later rounds.  

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35 minutes ago, TheYellowSubmarine said:

Paxton isn't great when healthy, and is never healthy. Hard pass. 

He has a career 3.19 ERA. He is great when healthy, and he got way better. This sounds like a post from someone who hasn't researched Paxton at all, because literally every sign there is points to a major breakout

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24 minutes ago, TheYellowSubmarine said:


He does not have a career 3.19 ERA. That is factually false. 

My mistake, that was his career ERA prior to last year.

You know what else is factually false? That he isn't great when healthy.

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