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James Paxton 2017 Outlook


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Pretty darn sure that forearm of his is still hurt.  Velo waaay down, ability to locate any offering at all gone, only way to notch strikes is by lobbing low-90s FBs over the center of the plate.  Looks like they rushed him back.

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8 hours ago, BMcP said:

Pretty darn sure that forearm of his is still hurt.  Velo waaay down, ability to locate any offering at all gone, only way to notch strikes is by lobbing low-90s FBs over the center of the plate.  Looks like they rushed him back.

Going to my bench until I see a turn around.

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We all have our own level of trust in players.Some of you will jump ship at the first signs of things going wrong. Thats fine. thats why we have this forum. So many different opinions. I have more trust in Paxton to make it then many of you have in Buxton to make it. at least the knees in my pants aren't worn out from all the begging. You can drop or trade him away but I'm hanging on .

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7 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

He was overhyped going into the draft this year, he's very Jekel and Hyde, i don't know if its injury or inconsistency 

And somebody like Quintana or Archer aren't jekel and hyde that went so much earlier in drafts and aren't doing sh!t either? I would much rather take my chances with Paxton.

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10 hours ago, BMcP said:

Pretty darn sure that forearm of his is still hurt.  Velo waaay down, ability to locate any offering at all gone, only way to notch strikes is by lobbing low-90s FBs over the center of the plate.  Looks like they rushed him back.

Yeah he can say it is a mechanical issue but if so it is caused by the injury.  I too don't think he is not really healthy.  Something is most definitely amiss with him.  This isn't mere inconsistency as some underlying issue.

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Well since none of us are with the team. None of us are experts on major league baseball players health wise, mechcanics wise or other wise it's very easy for us to say it's this or that . Seems to me if it were that easy the team would figure it out ?

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4 minutes ago, motown magic said:

And somebody like Quintana or Archer aren't jekel and hyde that went so much earlier in drafts and aren't doing sh!t either? I would much rather take my chances with Paxton.

 

Quintana had a multi-year track record of SP2-like production -- that doesn't mean he never turned in clunkers, but year after year, he was able to turn in enough quality-plus starts to offset them.  That's what people were paying for in drafts, and it definitely hasn't gone that way, but there was a strong justification for paying for that consistency.

 

Archer didn't have that kind of track record by any means, but he hasn't really been disappointing, either.  He went as the 13th SP off the board, and right now he's returning #20 SP value according to the ESPN player rater.  People paid for a top-end SP2, instead they're getting a back-end SP2.  One above-average start could change that looking at how tightly-bunched the SP2s are.

 

We really don't know where Paxton would be if he'd stayed healthy, but health was much more of a question mark going into the season for him than it was for either Quintana or Archer, so the case that Paxton was significantly overdrafted is very strong.

 

Don't get me wrong here, I was high on Paxton going into drafts based on what he showed last year, but it was only really a half a season of ace-like production, so I didn't rank him high enough to get him anywhere.  I think there's still back-end ace upside here, but the health questions that we knew about coming into the season and the very short run of elite production don't make him as good of a mixed-league asset as either of the guys you mentioned.

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We are talking about this year. The past means very little. Archer contiues to have an ERA around the 4.00 mark . The only thing he offers is K's. His whip is respectable but nothing special for a guy that went several rounds before Paxton is my point.

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4 minutes ago, motown magic said:

We are talking about this year. The past means very little.

 

You made an argument about draft position and I responded to it.  Are you denying that people factor track record into how high they draft someone?  If everyone knew how players were going to perform after the draft, this game wouldn't be very much fun.  "The past" is most of what we have to go on when ranking these guys.

 

Your point was that Quintana and Archer's ADP were inflated, and I explained why their ADP were reasonable.  Archer's basically returned his minus a few slots.  Quintana hasn't, but he had a long track record and no reason to believe he was going to fall off this much.  Paxton was a much riskier bet -- of course the upside was there, but he's been hurt a lot, and had only shown 10-15 games of the kind of performance that people were projecting on him for this year.

 

It's easy with hindsight bias to cherry-pick a safe bet like Quintana that didn't pay off and compare against a risky bet like Paxton, but they're not the same.

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Just now, motown magic said:

We are talking about this year. The past means very little. Archer contiues to have an ERA around the 4.00 mark . The only thing he offers is K's. His whip is respectable but nothing special for a guy that went several rounds before Paxton is my point.

Not "we."  You are only talking about this year.  Some of the rest of us are actually talking about the history of these pitchers and Paxton in particuar.  In my case the endless Paxton injury resume.  History is important.  Players can change and grow for sure.  And I think Paxton has great stuff.  But it isn't there right now.  And when it hasn't been there in the past for him it usually indicated an underlining physical issue.

I just hope they don't keep throwing him out there to get clobbered given how many games out they are and how beat up in general their starting staff is.  A gimpy performing Paxton and young Ariel Miranda is are not going to lead them to the promised land this year.  Too bad because it looked like the Mariners were becoming legit contenders.  But they are too far down without a paddle (rest of a starting staff) to contend this year so they should be looking to protect Paxton for the future now and not keep throwing him out when he keeps blowing up (not just getting hit some but utterly exploding) start after start right after he got off the DL.  Something is definitely wrong with him. 

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53 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Not "we."  You are only talking about this year.  Some of the rest of us are actually talking about the history of these pitchers and Paxton in particuar.  In my case the endless Paxton injury resume.  History is important.  Players can change and grow for sure.  And I think Paxton has great stuff.  But it isn't there right now.  And when it hasn't been there in the past for him it usually indicated an underlining physical issue.

I just hope they don't keep throwing him out there to get clobbered given how many games out they are and how beat up in general their starting staff is.  A gimpy performing Paxton and young Ariel Miranda is are not going to lead them to the promised land this year.  Too bad because it looked like the Mariners were becoming legit contenders.  But they are too far down without a paddle (rest of a starting staff) to contend this year so they should be looking to protect Paxton for the future now and not keep throwing him out when he keeps blowing up (not just getting hit some but utterly exploding) start after start right after he got off the DL.  Something is definitely wrong with him. 

 

JMHO, I think the injury is still bothering him.  Command isn't there (first thing to go with an elbow injury), velo slightly down. 

 

In my dynasty league In tried to deal him after his first start back.   Wasn't able to though.   Stuck now but, "I have a bad feeling about this."

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yeah he can say it is a mechanical issue but if so it is caused by the injury.  I too don't think he is not really healthy.  Something is most definitely amiss with him.  This isn't mere inconsistency as some underlying issue.

speaking from a PT perspective. time off definitely has an impact on losing muscle memory and mechanics. especially when it comes to specificity of baseball as much as the perfect release point and leg kick etc. i think by now he should've been able to find it but i suppose not. tough read here. 

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Well his release point is trending upwards, which in his case might be a bad thing, since the biggest reason he improved was the lowering of his release point. Maybe it is mechanical. 

 

Edit: Well, it's trending up but his last start was still at the highest he had it last year, and he did fine with it like that last year. If it goes any higher then it will be higher than last year. 

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14 hours ago, dod959 said:

Well his release point is trending upwards, which in his case might be a bad thing, since the biggest reason he improved was the lowering of his release point. Maybe it is mechanical. 

 

Edit: Well, it's trending up but his last start was still at the highest he had it last year, and he did fine with it like that last year. If it goes any higher then it will be higher than last year. 

 

Where was his release point in his first start back?   That's really what we should be looking at,  what changed in that dominant first post dl start to the last three stinkers.

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26 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

 

A bit ... I'm going into panic, abandon ship mode

 

 

That Phillies start is probably my abandon ship moment. I'm not sure what to expect against Detriot (probably an explosion) but if the velocity doesn't correct by his next start, and he gets roughed up against the Phils next week, I don't see how he is rosterable. I he is decent, he probably gets a leash of another start or two.

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1 hour ago, mtblock said:

That Phillies start is probably my abandon ship moment. I'm not sure what to expect against Detriot (probably an explosion) but if the velocity doesn't correct by his next start, and he gets roughed up against the Phils next week, I don't see how he is rosterable. I he is decent, he probably gets a leash of another start or two.

I see your point, but I'm not going to make a decision based on one specific start. Sure the Phils are bad, but even bad lineups are capable of beating up on aces from time to time. I am more curious to see how his next 2-3 starts go. If they are similar to what we have seen the past 2 weeks then he would be very droppable.

 

I'm gonna choose to believe the recent reports of mechanical issues. If he's healthy then it has to be a mechanical flaw. You just don't go from throwing 97-99 to throwing 92-93 without any reason.

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