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James Paxton 2017 Outlook


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Actually, watching the game this was a very encouraging start.   Paxton looked dominant at times, strikeouts were there.   Seattle announcers said that he was looking much better / more comfortable and that his arm slot mechanics seemed to be fixed.   He's still stretching out his pitch count, I believe, since the injury and he's going to have challenges the third time through the lineup just like everybody, but all in all I feel confident rolling him out there next time.    

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I'm on the east coast so I couldn't stay up to watch the whole game but I watched the first 4 innings and thought the biggest issue was control/command. His velocity was back up. I think the lowest fastball I saw was 94 and mostly saw 95-97, but he was struggling to hit his spots. He got behind in several counts so he had to throw fastballs, which is obviously going to lead to some hard hit balls. It was about what I expected given his recent struggles.

 

I think he'll start to find his groove again and start hitting his spots. His first start back when he dominated for 5 innings he was throwing first pitch strikes in nearly every count. Hopefully he'll start to get ahead in counts again going forward. I am fairly encouraged by this start.

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he was dropped and had him on my bench last night. I agree with most people that the philly game will be a turning point for him. I will start him and hopefully that will get him going or most people will cut bait im sure. 

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5 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

His two biggest issues are control and injuries, he has done nothing to this year to change the opinion of him, he's nothing special

 

347 big league innings.

8.38/2.88 K/BB%

3.42/3.22/3.54 ERA/FIP/xFIP

 

That is pretty solid, a top 30 pitcher.

 

We get it, you must have paid through the nose for him but for the rest of us, he is a pretty good pitcher.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, arthurpete said:

 

347 big league innings.

8.38/2.88 K/BB%

3.42/3.22/3.54 ERA/FIP/xFIP

 

That is pretty solid, a top 30 pitcher.

 

We get it, you must have paid through the nose for him but for the rest of us, he is a pretty good pitcher.

 

 

I didn't pay through the nose for him, i drafted him where he was ranked, i just don't think he's anything special as he is touted to be

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31 minutes ago, Big Tuna said:

jeez I get benching until he works things out a bit but dropping?  I'd be grabbing him everywhere!  

I swear a lot of folks here must play in 6- and 8-team leagues to be thinking about dropping. Pitching sucks this year. 

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30 minutes ago, arthurpete said:

If you drafted him where he was ranked then you got a pretty solid pickup. You could have drafted Nola, Vela, Maeda, Teheran, Harvey, Gausman, Eickhoff, Moore, Lackey etc etc

I also could have gotten McCullers, Keuchal, Santana, Lynn, Wood, Gonzalez, Severino,McCarthy  etc, its a crapshoot

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3 hours ago, azeri98 said:

I also could have gotten McCullers, Keuchal, Santana, Lynn, Wood, Gonzalez, Severino,McCarthy  etc, its a crapshoot

 

It's as much of a crapshoot as you let it be. Most guys you named here should go before the ones listed in the post before soley for upside as well as past performance. 

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4 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

It's as much of a crapshoot as you let it be. Most guys you named here should go before the ones listed in the post before soley for upside as well as past performance. 

Really, maybe Keuchel but thats about it, based on past performance you would rank McCullers, Santana, Wood Gio Gonzalez, Severino and McCarthy ahead of Paxton? What draft were you in?

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15 hours ago, azeri98 said:

Really, maybe Keuchel but thats about it, based on past performance you would rank McCullers, Santana, Wood Gio Gonzalez, Severino and McCarthy ahead of Paxton? What draft were you in?

 

McCullers was a question of health, not performance. Gio Gonzalez still had the K rate, was considerably worse than his FIP suggested he should have been last season (which is usually the case for him, but the underlying #'s were still good for him), Santana has been a steady contributor with low to mediocre K's for a while. In my opinion, Santana = Teheran but several rounds later. 

And I was talking those guys in comparison to teheran, Harey, Eikhoff, Lackey, Moore, etc. 

Paxton should have been drafted where McCullers was, or close. Gio/Keuchel should have slid in next, then the field really opens up IMO. 

 

However, I'm the guy that owns Paxton, McCullers, Wood, and Keuchel in about all of my leagues (3/4 on every team, at least). I don't waste draft picks on guys like Eikhoff, Teheran and McCarthy. 


Is it a crap shoot? Sure, Maeda could very well be dropping wins left and right right now, but some of those guys were safe to avoid. I did like Gausman, he burned me pretty good. 

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I'm still concerned about his command/control, which is usually indicative of a forearm/elbow injury.  Given that he is coming off a forearm injury, I'll continue benching him until he turns in a good outing.

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Is Paxton going twice this week? ESPN lists him as the starter on Sunday @ PHI which would seem like a plus matchup but that would mean they are skipping someone and Pax goes on normal rest. Anyone know?

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16 minutes ago, neljak25 said:

Is Paxton going twice this week? ESPN lists him as the starter on Sunday @ PHI which would seem like a plus matchup but that would mean they are skipping someone and Pax goes on normal rest. Anyone know?

 

He is pitching tomorrow at home against the Phillies. If that start goes well I'm guessing they start him on normal rest at the Angels on Sunday. 

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