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James Paxton 2017 Outlook


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31 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Again, FWIW, but I'm a lifelong Seattle'ite and M's fan and I've never heard of Brett Miller.  Looking at the Times website, looks like he mostly covers high school sports.

Likewise, I'm a lifelong Mariners fan and hadn't heard of him until the Paxton article. I have DM'd with him on Twitter since then a few times, comparing notes on Paxton/Felix, and he seems like a smart, cool dude but he's not a Mariners beat writers or a professional analyst or anything like that.

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Regarding the issues of Paxton's confidence/mental fortitude:

I was at Media Day today for the Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners' AAA affiliate and got to chat with pitching coach Lance Painter, who is the guy who "fixed" Paxton by instructing him to lower his arm slot. Painter raved about how much Paxton's confidence has improved in the last year. I brought up Paxton (of course I did), but it was Painter who brought up his confidence, so it wasn't something I specifically asked about but something he brought up.

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3 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Regarding the issues of Paxton's confidence/mental fortitude:

I was at Media Day today for the Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners' AAA affiliate and got to chat with pitching coach Lance Painter, who is the guy who "fixed" Paxton by instructing him to lower his arm slot. Painter raved about how much Paxton's confidence has improved in the last year. I brought up Paxton (of course I did), but it was Painter who brought up his confidence, so it wasn't something I specifically asked about but something he brought up.

wow great comment.  i would like this twice if i could.

i only him in all but 1 league i think.  im realy looking forward to his start this week

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36 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Happy Paxton day!

I grabbed him a little earlier than I would have before I read a strong endorsement from a Rotoworld contributor during the off season........:-)

I'm optimistic this is the year potential comes together and equals big time pitcher.

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Days like this are what make fantasy baseball so much fun. It's the felling of that first start by your sleeper pitcher that you hope will breakout. The guy no one your league mates knew anything about but you secretly know is a dark horse to be the best performing pitcher in the league.

 

Absolutely giddy to see how Paxton pans out this year. 

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On 4/3/2017 at 9:11 PM, mysonx3 said:

Regarding the issues of Paxton's confidence/mental fortitude:

I was at Media Day today for the Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners' AAA affiliate and got to chat with pitching coach Lance Painter, who is the guy who "fixed" Paxton by instructing him to lower his arm slot. Painter raved about how much Paxton's confidence has improved in the last year. I brought up Paxton (of course I did), but it was Painter who brought up his confidence, so it wasn't something I specifically asked about but something he brought up.

Was reading through my notes from my conversation with Painter, and can't believe I neglected to mention my favorite part: he compared Paxton to Andy Pettite.

Also, was listening to the radio today and heard a quote from Shannon Drayer about how Paxton told her he felt more like a veteran this spring because he was able to focus on getting ready for the season and fine tuning instead of making changes and fighting for a roster spot.

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1 hour ago, mysonx3 said:

You're late to this party, but we'll let you take a seat on the back of the train.

I was born late.

 

Im just hoping that he doesn't pull a Stroman and crap out.

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They key for James is how he pitches with runners on base.  The splits speak for themselves.  Quite frankly they're embarrassingly horrific.  RISP hit .328 off him, runner on 3rd .385, runners on 2nd and 3rd .375.  It goes on.  It doesn't get any better if I keep going.  He's his own worst enemy.  He has fantastic stuff but he's prone to meltdowns.  Experience and situational success usually cure those.  This is a human being though that I saw crying tears when removed from a game when I had seats behind home dugout 2 years ago against Twins.  I'm on the wagon this year but I'm watching closely how he does in tough situational spots.  That's going to be the area of growth that must improve for a big step to be taken forward.

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48 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

They key for James is how he pitches with runners on base.  The splits speak for themselves.  Quite frankly they're embarrassingly horrific.  RISP hit .328 off him, runner on 3rd .385, runners on 2nd and 3rd .375.  It goes on.  It doesn't get any better if I keep going.  He's his own worst enemy.  He has fantastic stuff but he's prone to meltdowns.  Experience and situational success usually cure those.  This is a human being though that I saw crying tears when removed from a game when I had seats behind home dugout 2 years ago against Twins.  I'm on the wagon this year but I'm watching closely how he does in tough situational spots.  That's going to be the area of growth that must improve for a big step to be taken forward.

 
 

You make it sound like this has been a persistent problem for him, but last year was the first time in his career batters hit above .175 or had a wOBA above .270 against him with runners in scoring position.

Edited by mysonx3
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Just now, mysonx3 said:

You make it sound like this has been a consistent problem for him, but last year was the first time in his career batters hit above .175 or had a wOBA above .270 against him with runners in scoring position.

Well prior to last year he hadn't ever pitched more than 74 innings in a season. So not a ton of data to go off of.  He's been snake bitten every season thus far in big leagues.  And that also goes far back to college as well.  Long history of injury here with James.  He's going to be an interesting one to watch.  Looking forward to tuning in here in about 20 minutes.

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2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Well prior to last year he hadn't ever pitched more than 74 innings in a season. So not a ton of data to go off of.  He's been snake bitten every season thus far in big leagues.  And that also goes far back to college as well.  Long history of injury here with James.  He's going to be an interesting one to watch.  Looking forward to tuning in here in about 20 minutes.

 

Right, not a lot of data. But within the data we do have, we have a .153 BAA w/RISP over 167 BF from 2013-2015 and then a .311 over 132 BF in 2016. So within the data we do have this has been far from a persistent issue. And last year his peripherals (K-BB%, FIP, xFIP) with RISP were career bests, and his Hard% w/ RISP was the second best, behind 2014. His results were just bitten by that .390 BABIP he allowed with RISP. I think we would both agree from watching that he was bitten badly by our defense in key spots.

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Velo isn't quite what it was last year in the early goings tonight. Sitting around 94-95 and touching 97 versus last year when he was sitting at 96-97 and touching 99. Hopefully it's just him not being full go yet, but not quite the left handed Thor we were expecting.

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1 minute ago, bradwatson said:

Velo isn't quite what it was last year in the early goings tonight. Sitting around 94-95 and touching 97 versus last year when he was sitting at 96-97 and touching 99. Hopefully it's just him not being full go yet, but not quite the left handed Thor we were expecting.

 

Looking great in terms of fastball location though. Had a bit of trouble with breaking ball location in the first inning, but nothing major. And I'll also note he gained velo progressively as the games went on last year.

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7 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Looking great in terms of fastball location though. Had a bit of trouble with breaking ball location in the first inning, but nothing major. And I'll also note he gained velo progressively as the games went on last year.

Yea I'm not concerned, just noting that he's not quite the flame baller we hoped for in the early goings.

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10 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

Yea I'm not concerned, just noting that he's not quite the flame baller we hoped for in the early goings.

Looks like he hit 98 a few times last inning. 

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  1. Springer struck out, then gets to first on a wild pitch by Pax (aka not a passed ball)

I'll... take it? I guess? shrugs

 

edit: hopefully he's not unraveling

Edited by agg2596
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2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

That 3-2 hook to altuve just made me puke.

Is that good or bad?

 

and the broadcast called it a changeup. Was it actually a curve?

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