Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Trevor Story 2017 Outlook


urban2014
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

1 hour ago, Travis Burten said:

You are dreaming if you think he hits 35

 

 

Story can probably get into the mid 20's, maybe even match last year's total I'd say. 

 

He's been terrible and is on pace to hit 28...

 

the he streak will come 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, miasma16 said:

No way, that's a brutal average from my third rounder. I don't care what position he plays. 

 

15 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Is it hating if one see's its possible he ends up .220-230 BA 35HRs instead of .260?  

 

Thing that different about this year so far is the pop ups.. He only popped up 10 times all last year,... He's already at 8 in like a 1/3 of the ABs. The degree of hard contact to weak was the main reason he was able to hit .270 despite the Ks.. 

 

I mean, would people who drafted where he did this year. Be ok with .230 35HR  6-7 SB  80/90  R/RBI  stat line?  Its still only a month in obvious SSS still apply. Just curious if that outcome is ok with investors if it happens

 

How would you not be happy with 1st round production? What are you talking about?

 

People on here are cracking me up. I understand the panic but let's be reasonable here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, tsh00k said:

 

 

How would you not be happy with 1st round production? What are you talking about?

 

People on here are cracking me up. I understand the panic but let's be reasonable here. 

Those numbers aren't first round production and it's hilarious that you think they are. Giving him that 7th steal puts him at a little less than a 0.02 stdev on baseballmonster by my calculations, where he'd rank somewhere from 113-116th overall. 

 

So uh, no. Again, I'd be very disappointed in that kind of production from a 3rd rounder. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Travis Burten said:

You are dreaming if you think he hits 35

 

 

Story can probably get into the mid 20's, maybe even match last year's total I'd say. 

I'm dreaming that a guy with 31 career HRs in 505 PA's off a 21 HR/FB rate..

 

...has some probability of hitting 35 around 600 PAs?

 

Okie dokie

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora
Link to comment
Share on other sites

its to early to panic but Lets face it, Last year's start was kind of a fluke (hitting 27 homers in 6 games :) ). He will be ok but we had to expect some regression. look at Correa during his first half of a season after his callup. over the course of a full season he would have hit about 35 homeruns. People got excited for 2016 and then he struggled a bit and that happens to a lot of players. Story does strikeout a lot and his average/OBP is a disaster right now but he has some power and playing at Coors will only help his power numbers. He's still on pace for 25+ homers still but his average may not be much better then .210-.220. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Those numbers aren't first round production and it's hilarious that you think they are. Giving him that 7th steal puts him at a little less than a 0.02 stdev on baseballmonster by my calculations, where he'd rank somewhere from 113-116th overall. 

 

So uh, no. Again, I'd be very disappointed in that kind of production from a 3rd rounder. 

 

Not so sure about your calculation there. Either way, a SS with those counting stats is going to be much higher than 113th overall unless your league takes into account strikeouts, strikeout rate, & avg. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

I'm dreaming that a guy with 31 career HRs in 505 PA's off a 21 HR/FB rate..

 

...has some probability of hitting 35 around 600 PAs?

 

Okie dokie

 

 

 

it's possible but as I mentioned in my last post his start last year was insane. He hit like 7 homers in his first few games. That likely won't happen again so you have to take that in to consideration. I'm not hating, just assuming that won't happen year to year. I don't think he will hit 35 but probably in the 25-28 range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

it's possible but as I mentioned in my last post his start last year was insane. He hit like 7 homers in his first few games. That likely won't happen again so you have to take that in to consideration. I'm not hating, just assuming that won't happen year to year. I don't think he will hit 35 but probably in the 25-28 range. 

well... sequence in which the HRs came is not worth discussion.  As its silly to say he will never have another hot streak. It doesn't have to be as hot as his first week for it to work out in the long run.

 

You either in the camp that he's capable of sustaining near a 20 HR/FB or not. 

Edited by Slatykamora
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, tsh00k said:

 

Not so sure about your calculation there. Either way, a SS with those counting stats is going to be much higher than 113th overall unless your league takes into account strikeouts, strikeout rate, & avg. 

Todd Frazier had a slightly worse batting average and better numbers elsewhere across the board and was nowhere near a 1st rounder last year. That concept is completely off base.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Todd Frazier had a slightly worse batting average and better numbers elsewhere across the board and was nowhere near a 1st rounder last year. That concept is completely off base.

The narrative goes because he is a SS his numbers are thus better. Saw this last year when people would see he was projected to hit say 25 they would bump him to 28 because he played SS.  The bump wasn't the Coors effect but because of the position he played. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

why wouldn't someone like him never have another random hot streak at some point in a 6 month season?

 

He certainly could have a hot streak but I was comparing it to his start in 2016. Didn't he break a

record with how many HR's he hit in his first few games?  I said I assume that type of streak won't happen year to year. We don't know if he is capable of that again. Maybe he will blast 40 this year but maybe he hits 19. its not like he has been hitting 30 homers for 6 years now. In the Minors  he didn't hit more then 20  in a season but playing at Coors is a different story. He may hit 35 this year and then 26 next year. He has some power and plays at Coors so it's always possible. 

 

45 minutes ago, tsh00k said:

 

 

How would you not be happy with 1st round production? What are you talking about?

 

People on here are cracking me up. I understand the panic but let's be reasonable here. 

 

I agree with @miasma16 , That isn't first round production.

In 2016 Brad Miller hit: .243/.304 with 30 Homers, 6 SB's , 81 RBI and 73 runs. I think that was most likely a fluke season for Miller but Story could be right there this season with maybe a few more runs/RBI but a worse average. He does get a bump for being a SS but so was Brad Miller. I'm not saying Miller is better but their stats may be very similar and Miller was probably picked in the 150+ range. It's the best example I could think of right now 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

The narrative goes because he is a SS his numbers are thus better. Saw this last year when people would see he was projected to hit say 25 they would bump him to 28 because he played SS.  The bump wasn't the Coors effect but because of the position he played. 

He wasn't a first rounder in March, and he's been a massive disappointment, so the shortstop effect isn't anywhere close to making him a first rounder. It was a gross exaggeration.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

why wouldn't someone like him never have another random hot streak at some point in a 6 month season?

Cause he's not making as much hard contact?

 

SSS, sure. But Fangraphs says hr/fb stabilizes at 50 fly balls. He's hit 40 fly balls this year (an eye-popping 67% of balls in play) and his hr/fb is 12.5%.

 

I'm holding of course, benching on the road. I think of him as a streaky guy who's successful making adjustments and should figure it out in that park. But it won't be the least bit surprising if he plays ten years and never sees another 10 homer month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

it's possible but as I mentioned in my last post his start last year was insane. He hit like 7 homers in his first few games. That likely won't happen again so you have to take that in to consideration. I'm not hating, just assuming that won't happen year to year. I don't think he will hit 35 but probably in the 25-28 range. 

 

Yes he hit 10 HR April last year. Yes that was a hot start and unlikely to happen again but he hit 8 HR in July when theoretically the league should have adjusted to him at that point.

 

I still think with his power and playing at Coors he's a true 35 HR threat. Don't really care about his BA too much, since that's not what I drafted him for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, miasma16 said:

He wasn't a first rounder in March, and he's been a massive disappointment, so the shortstop effect isn't anywhere close to making him a first rounder. It was a gross exaggeration.

 

Ill admit when I'm wrong, it was an exaggeration. Sorry for the homerism! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...