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Trevor Story 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, GrapeJuice said:

The cool thing about this thread is you can miss 10 pages and when you come back it's still the same conversation going on.

Especially when people are quoting posts from 6 months ago.

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3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Especially when people are quoting posts from 6 months ago.

those told you so guys are the worst. guarantee you he has more whiffs than singles in player discussions

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what is your take on Trevor?

 

3rd/4th round draft pick Trevor has let down all that drafted him 

 

yipppee --- I didn't draft a single Trevor

 

I haven't read one page of this thread.... nothing to see here

 

 

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Funny how the tone of this thread has changed. From rapid Story can do no wrong and don't post if you believed he could to now it seems more like Story can do nothing right. 

 

He wasn't as good as people thought and he isn't as bad as he is showing presently. 

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On Saturday, July 01, 2017 at 2:50 AM, Low and Away said:

Funny how the tone of this thread has changed. From rapid Story can do no wrong and don't post if you believed he could to now it seems more like Story can do nothing right. 

 

He wasn't as good as people thought and he isn't as bad as he is showing presently. 

 

Well he definitely isn't as good as last year's pace would suggest mainly because very few players get those kind of numbers consistently.  However, not sure if his base is much higher than it is now.  I think all those homers last year messed with his approach this year.   I think he's still a 30 homer, .240-.250 kind of hitter. If he swiped 20 bases and kept his walk totals respectable then that would be very good production. Still waiting for a hot stretch which could start this week with 7 home games.  I imagine if a rough week though people will start really freaking out.

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I've been a big Story supporter / believer since last year, having drafted/kept him on all 3 of my teams, but I've officially cut ties with him in the last league I still owned him in.  Looking at his advanced stats on a month by month split I just don't see anything that points to this just being a slump, or something that he's going to likely snap out of.  

 

Despite it "seeming" at times in June like he was improving, everything points to it being more of fluke than a positive change.  His BB% dropped even further to 6.2% in June, about half what it was earlier in the year, and his K% was still a pretty ridiculous 34%.  He hit .264 but that was fueled by an unsustainable .393 BABIP.  His June SLG and OPS were also season-lows (.341 and .650).  

 

His ridiculously high FB% from April and May was down, which some have pointed to as a positive sign that he's making adjustments, but in June it's almost like he over-adjusted.  His FB% dropped from 56% in May to 36.2% in June, but his GB% went up from 28% to 41%.  It's not really a big help to his game to reduce FB% to a reasonable level if it's just mostly going into grounders.  His Launch Angle was around 22% in 2016, and it's gone everywhere in 2017 from 32.3 degrees in April all the way down to 12.3 for June.  His Hard% also went down to 31% from 37.5%, and Soft% went up to 17.2% from 12.5%.  He seems to be trying to hit fewer shallow FB, but in doing so he's pounding the ball into the ground now.  

 

The quality of contact numbers weren't "horrible" in June, about league average, but a big part of what fueled Story's 2016 was a Hard% of 44.9% - he struck out a lot, he hit a lot of flyballs, but when he made contact he hit the ball hard and it flew far.  Right now, for whatever reason, he's hitting the ball much less hard, but he's still got the same high FB% and high K%, which is much less palatable when only 14.7% of his FBs leave the yard vs. 23.7% in 2016.  His exit velocity was an average of 90.2 mph with a max of 112.3 in 2016, and he was "barreling" the ball in 8.2% of his PA.  So far in 2017, he's down to an average EV of 88.7 mph with a 109 mph max, and barreling the ball in only 5.3% of PA.  

 

Maybe we don't need this many numbers to tell us that Story is struggling this year, but to me it tells a story of a guy that is pretty lost at the plate right now, and also one that is just making weaker contact all around.  It's possible he finds that sweet spot from 2016 again, and I would likely be holding in keeper/dynasty leagues hoping for a turn-around, but for re-draft I've run out of patience.  His launch angle is way out of whack, he's not hitting the ball as hard as last year, he's not barreling up on the ball as often, he's walking less, striking out more, and any modest AVG improvements in the last month were driven by an unsustainably high BABIP.  

 

I'm not trying to be a 'hater', just a realist, and right now none of the advanced stats are in his favor.  He could still hit 30 HR this year if he got on a heater, but there are currently 54 players on a 30 HR pace, and 95 players on a better HR pace than Story in MLB, so it makes it difficult to stomach his low-.200 AVG, high K's, and lack of other counting stats batting 7th or 8th if that's all you're getting back in HR.  There have been a lot of 'surprise' SS this year like Cozart, Simmons, Owings, Gyorko, etc. to latch onto from a fantasy perspective, and at some point in redraft that potential dwindles down to nill.

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1 minute ago, handyandy86 said:

I've been a big Story supporter / believer since last year, having drafted/kept him on all 3 of my teams, but I've officially cut ties with him in the last league I still owned him in.  Looking at his advanced stats on a month by month split I just don't see anything that points to this just being a slump, or something that he's going to likely snap out of.  

 

Despite it "seeming" at times in June like he was improving, everything points to it being more of fluke than a positive change.  His BB% dropped even further to 6.2% in June, about half what it was earlier in the year, and his K% was still a pretty ridiculous 34%.  He hit .264 but that was fueled by an unsustainable .393 BABIP.  His June SLG and OPS were also season-lows (.341 and .650).  

 

His ridiculously high FB% from April and May was down, which some have pointed to as a positive sign that he's making adjustments, but in June it's almost like he over-adjusted.  His FB% dropped from 56% in May to 36.2% in June, but his GB% went up from 28% to 41%.  It's not really a big help to his game to reduce FB% to a reasonable level if it's just mostly going into grounders.  His Launch Angle was around 22% in 2016, and it's gone everywhere in 2017 from 32.3 degrees in April all the way down to 12.3 for June.  His Hard% also went down to 31% from 37.5%, and Soft% went up to 17.2% from 12.5%.  He seems to be trying to hit fewer shallow FB, but in doing so he's pounding the ball into the ground now.  

 

The quality of contact numbers weren't "horrible" in June, about league average, but a big part of what fueled Story's 2016 was a Hard% of 44.9% - he struck out a lot, he hit a lot of flyballs, but when he made contact he hit the ball hard and it flew far.  Right now, for whatever reason, he's hitting the ball much less hard, but he's still got the same high FB% and high K%, which is much less palatable when only 14.7% of his FBs leave the yard vs. 23.7% in 2016.  His exit velocity was an average of 90.2 mph with a max of 112.3 in 2016, and he was "barreling" the ball in 8.2% of his PA.  So far in 2017, he's down to an average EV of 88.7 mph with a 109 mph max, and barreling the ball in only 5.3% of PA.  

 

Maybe we don't need this many numbers to tell us that Story is struggling this year, but to me it tells a story of a guy that is pretty lost at the plate right now, and also one that is just making weaker contact all around.  It's possible he finds that sweet spot from 2016 again, and I would likely be holding in keeper/dynasty leagues hoping for a turn-around, but for re-draft I've run out of patience.  His launch angle is way out of whack, he's not hitting the ball as hard as last year, he's not barreling up on the ball as often, he's walking less, striking out more, and any modest AVG improvements in the last month were driven by an unsustainably high BABIP.  

 

I'm not trying to be a 'hater', just a realist, and right now none of the advanced stats are in his favor.  He could still hit 30 HR this year if he got on a heater, but there are currently 54 players on a 30 HR pace, and 95 players on a better HR pace than Story in MLB, so it makes it difficult to stomach his low-.200 AVG, high K's, and lack of other counting stats batting 7th or 8th if that's all you're getting back in HR.  There have been a lot of 'surprise' SS this year like Cozart, Simmons, Owings, Gyorko, etc. to latch onto from a fantasy perspective, and at some point in redraft that potential dwindles down to nill.

Sorry but that's not wise especially since he will have some time to regroup and enjoy the All Star game on his couch. I mean yeah he has been a disaster,  but the SS position has been pretty dreadful,  apart from Seager. Lindor dead cold since April,  Machado mediocre by his standards , Villar bust..Tulo huge bust...Russell huge bust...

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1 minute ago, urban2014 said:

Sorry but that's not wise especially since he will have some time to regroup and enjoy the All Star game on his couch. I mean yeah he has been a disaster,  but the SS position has been pretty dreadful,  apart from Seager. Lindor dead cold since April,  Machado mediocre by his standards , Villar bust..Tulo huge bust...Russell huge bust...

lol the guy you quoted put in a long post full of statistics and analysis to back up his decision to drop story, and you counter with "bro...bad call, Story's gonna turn it up soon."

 

 

do you still think he's 3rd round talent? even early round?

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2 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

lol the guy you quoted put in a long post full of statistics and analysis to back up his decision to drop story, and you counter with "bro...bad call, Story's gonna turn it up soon."

 

 

do you still think he's 3rd round talent? even early round?

Nope. Still better then whichever ss he is getting from the scrap heap 

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7 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

lol the guy you quoted put in a long post full of statistics and analysis to back up his decision to drop story, and you counter with "bro...bad call, Story's gonna turn it up soon."

 

 

do you still think he's 3rd round talent? even early round?

Btw the analytics and stats point to Machado having a monster second half,  yet you sold him. 

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4 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

hope springs eternal here at Rotoworld

When in my 12 team league my opponents SS is Swanson, another guy has Beckhem at SS, and the other is waiting for the Braves SS to get promoted and is starting Wade, you know there aren't many great options. Drop him.  Go ahead 

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There are people that still own him? I'm not saying he's not going to turn it around but I'm pretty sure in most leagues he wouldn't get picked up if dropped. I've always been a fir believer in using the waiver wire as a bench extension. If you know your league and you know no one is going to pick him up, why carry that on your roster? I dropped him a while ago and just plan to keep a close eye on him and be the first to pounce if he shows signs of improvement.

 

With all the DL malarkey that's been going on all season there's just not a lot of room for the "bench and hope he turns it around in the next few months" type of players.

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1 hour ago, urban2014 said:

Sorry but that's not wise especially since he will have some time to regroup and enjoy the All Star game on his couch. I mean yeah he has been a disaster,  but the SS position has been pretty dreadful,  apart from Seager. Lindor dead cold since April,  Machado mediocre by his standards , Villar bust..Tulo huge bust...Russell huge bust...

 

1 hour ago, urban2014 said:

Nope. Still better then whichever ss he is getting from the scrap heap 

 

1 hour ago, urban2014 said:

When in my 12 team league my opponents SS is Swanson, another guy has Beckhem at SS, and the other is waiting for the Braves SS to get promoted and is starting Wade, you know there aren't many great options. Drop him.  Go ahead 

 

I agree to a certain extent - it all depends on who else you have or what else you could have instead of him on whether or not he's a "drop".  I didn't want to get into my team specifics too much because that's not what this thread is about, but on this team in question I also have Segura and picked up Zach Cozart when he went on the DL a couple weeks ago, and I feel a lot better going forward with them at SS/MI than waiting on Story.  

 

Would I drop Story if he was my only SS for Tim Beckham?  Maybe not, but that wasn't really the point of my post - it was to show there is very little statistically to back up the feeling that Story is about to break out and go on a heater.  What everyone does on their own individual team with that info is up to them.  However I'd say if you've been using Story as your primary SS all season long and have nobody else decent behind him then you've probably already dug yourself a decent hole.  Most Story owners in 12 team leagues (or 10) likely have had him sitting mostly on their bench.

 

Other than your apparently unwavering hope that Story turns it around, do you have any actual info to refute the stats and conclusion I drew above?  Or do you just think that he's going to chill on his couch for a few days and come back and belt out 25 HR in the second half because all he needed was a nap?  Even if that is your philosophy, why didn't he come back from his DL stint and start hitting?  He had lots of days on the couch in May to think about it and regroup.

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3 minutes ago, GrapeJuice said:

There are people that still own him? I'm not saying he's not going to turn it around but I'm pretty sure in most leagues he wouldn't get picked up if dropped. I've always been a fir believer in using the waiver wire as a bench extension. If you know your league and you know no one is going to pick him up, why carry that on your roster? I dropped him a while ago and just plan to keep a close eye on him and be the first to pounce if he shows signs of improvement.

 

With all the DL malarkey that's been going on all season there's just not a lot of room for the "bench and hope he turns it around in the next few months" type of players.

He is owned in 87 percent of Yahoo leagues. The last person who used your strategy dropped Castro who is now in my DL spot 

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2 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

I've been a big Story supporter / believer since last year, having drafted/kept him on all 3 of my teams, but I've officially cut ties with him in the last league I still owned him in.  Looking at his advanced stats on a month by month split I just don't see anything that points to this just being a slump, or something that he's going to likely snap out of.  

 

Despite it "seeming" at times in June like he was improving, everything points to it being more of fluke than a positive change.  His BB% dropped even further to 6.2% in June, about half what it was earlier in the year, and his K% was still a pretty ridiculous 34%.  He hit .264 but that was fueled by an unsustainable .393 BABIP.  His June SLG and OPS were also season-lows (.341 and .650).  

 

His ridiculously high FB% from April and May was down, which some have pointed to as a positive sign that he's making adjustments, but in June it's almost like he over-adjusted.  His FB% dropped from 56% in May to 36.2% in June, but his GB% went up from 28% to 41%.  It's not really a big help to his game to reduce FB% to a reasonable level if it's just mostly going into grounders.  His Launch Angle was around 22% in 2016, and it's gone everywhere in 2017 from 32.3 degrees in April all the way down to 12.3 for June.  His Hard% also went down to 31% from 37.5%, and Soft% went up to 17.2% from 12.5%.  He seems to be trying to hit fewer shallow FB, but in doing so he's pounding the ball into the ground now.  

 

The quality of contact numbers weren't "horrible" in June, about league average, but a big part of what fueled Story's 2016 was a Hard% of 44.9% - he struck out a lot, he hit a lot of flyballs, but when he made contact he hit the ball hard and it flew far.  Right now, for whatever reason, he's hitting the ball much less hard, but he's still got the same high FB% and high K%, which is much less palatable when only 14.7% of his FBs leave the yard vs. 23.7% in 2016.  His exit velocity was an average of 90.2 mph with a max of 112.3 in 2016, and he was "barreling" the ball in 8.2% of his PA.  So far in 2017, he's down to an average EV of 88.7 mph with a 109 mph max, and barreling the ball in only 5.3% of PA.  

 

Maybe we don't need this many numbers to tell us that Story is struggling this year, but to me it tells a story of a guy that is pretty lost at the plate right now, and also one that is just making weaker contact all around.  It's possible he finds that sweet spot from 2016 again, and I would likely be holding in keeper/dynasty leagues hoping for a turn-around, but for re-draft I've run out of patience.  His launch angle is way out of whack, he's not hitting the ball as hard as last year, he's not barreling up on the ball as often, he's walking less, striking out more, and any modest AVG improvements in the last month were driven by an unsustainably high BABIP.  

 

I'm not trying to be a 'hater', just a realist, and right now none of the advanced stats are in his favor.  He could still hit 30 HR this year if he got on a heater, but there are currently 54 players on a 30 HR pace, and 95 players on a better HR pace than Story in MLB, so it makes it difficult to stomach his low-.200 AVG, high K's, and lack of other counting stats batting 7th or 8th if that's all you're getting back in HR.  There have been a lot of 'surprise' SS this year like Cozart, Simmons, Owings, Gyorko, etc. to latch onto from a fantasy perspective, and at some point in redraft that potential dwindles down to nill.

 

Really good information and with the league wide power surge this year he's definitely been a big time negative fantasy player.   However, I do think he's still going to have at least a stretch or two in which he really gets hot and powers some homers in bunches.  Look I saw all the numbers on Eric Hosmer after 6 weeks and there was nothing to suggest in his profile that he was going to turn it around.  I dropped him (mainly due to him playing with the Royals) but he certainly turned it around.  They are different types of hitters but I just think when a player is going really bad sometimes you can't find those "light at the end of the tunnel" stats that we all search for.  But then some guys get going anyways.   

In any event I think this week (with 7 home games) will tell a lot and I certainly may end up dropping him as well if production remains as is and just live with the fact he might go off for someone else.   Problem is he just went off like crazy last year...   

Edited by knuckleheads
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He's still worth having because power hitting SS...but its always league dependent I guess

 

All of the Cozarts stats scream massive regression. So he isn't any better in my eyes ROS than Story IMO.

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3 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

 

 

I agree to a certain extent - it all depends on who else you have or what else you could have instead of him on whether or not he's a "drop".  I didn't want to get into my team specifics too much because that's not what this thread is about, but on this team in question I also have Segura and picked up Zach Cozart when he went on the DL a couple weeks ago, and I feel a lot better going forward with them at SS/MI than waiting on Story.  

 

Would I drop Story if he was my only SS for Tim Beckham?  Maybe not, but that wasn't really the point of my post - it was to show there is very little statistically to back up the feeling that Story is about to break out and go on a heater.  What everyone does on their own individual team with that info is up to them.  However I'd say if you've been using Story as your primary SS all season long and have nobody else decent behind him then you've probably already dug yourself a decent hole.  Most Story owners in 12 team leagues (or 10) likely have had him sitting mostly on their bench.

 

Other than your apparently unwavering hope that Story turns it around, do you have any actual info to refute the stats and conclusion I drew above?  Or do you just think that he's going to chill on his couch for a few days and come back and belt out 25 HR in the second half because all he needed was a nap?  Even if that is your philosophy, why didn't he come back from his DL stint and start hitting?  He had lots of days on the couch in May to think about it and regroup.

Going with my gut, plus due to the fact I am first and can afford his non production. And the fact that he can't be this bad

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1 minute ago, urban2014 said:

Going with my gut, plus due to the fact I am first and can afford his non production. And the fact that he can't be this bad

Why not?  It's not like he has the pedigree of a top prospect.  

 

He just hits the ball really hard, when he makes contact.  That's literally it.  

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3 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

Why not?  It's not like he has the pedigree of a top prospect.  

 

He just hits the ball really hard, when he makes contact.  That's literally it.  

You can literally say that about most players in the league . The fact is, Story is a top ten SS in a down year for the position.  

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19 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

Why not?  It's not like he has the pedigree of a top prospect.  

 

He just hits the ball really hard, when he makes contact.  That's literally it.  

 

What do you consider a "top prospect" though?  I mean this conversation has probably already happened a dozen times but while he wasn't a top 10 guy he was still a good prospect.   Also hitting the ball hard is something right?   It's what Aaron Judge does so well...

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