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Trevor Story 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, taobball said:

Don't have time for a full reply but if discipline is the concern how do you place Odor over Story? I'm much more worried about Odors K:BB than storys

 

also I think Story's ceiling for this year is .280, 38-15 or something to that accord with a ton of counting stats. Could be a first rounder in value so I don't buy the argument that third round is his ceiling.

I think you're underestimating Story's HR upside to be honest. He could definitely top 40 HR. His power peripherals were the best in the game.

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On 2/1/2017 at 8:02 AM, JenksDodger said:

 

That's what you keep saying, but you fail to cite any reasons for that.. Or is this just an instance where, "I don't like the guy at all, and no one is gonna change my mind because I already made it up". Which is totally fine if it is, that's your prerogative.. It's just hard to take someone seriously when they don't cite any reasons for their opinion. 

 

Because at this point you've said that you aren't sure he doesn't get demoted to AAA, is going to have less than 27hr, 67R, 72RBI, 8SB (#s dropping across the board)... You also say that their will be fewer balls in play.. well his best month batting average wise (.288) was the same month as his lowest BABIP.. (.326).. a .326 BABIP is more than sustainable in Coors field for a guy that has above average speed. 

 

As MySonx has pointed out with his flyball% and flyball distance, the #s are certainly sustainable with the chance to improve.. If you want to cite your reasons we can have a good discussion 

 

Is it possible he regresses? Absolutely - I just haven't seen any metrics that would lead me to believe it's coming. 

 

 


What do you mean I keep failing to cite reasons? It's a gut feeling, I'm avoiding Story unless it doesn't make sense not to. I feel like his poor K rate and his astronomically hot start have driven his price way higher than it should be. What do you want me to cite, that I have 6 years of a successful call in psychic business under my belt? 

Draft him all you want. My opinion is he is to be avoided, yours is he isn't. So be it. Draft him. I don't care. I really don't. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/theyve-adjusted-to-trevor-story/

 

He has projections renging from 24-36 homers, batting averages from .243 to .269, sb from 11-13. Draft him. You want a guy who can be anything from a .243 hitter with 24 homers to a .269 guy with 36 homers, draft him. I'll take a guy like Diaz who has an ADP 100 spots lower, is less volatile, with some moderate upside. 

 

Is it possible he improves? Sure. Is it possible he regresses? Sure. Who really predicted Kris Bryant would cut his K rate by 25%, and increase his homers by 50%? None of us can predict with a very high level of certainty what a guy will do in 2017. I'll let you be the one who rolls the dice on his sophomore season. 

 

I know his #'s in 2016 were great, what you are throwing at me on a month by month analysis means literally nothing to me. The dude was ripping the cover off the ball. I don't think that trend continues. Maybe it burns me, but I absolutely don't draft him with what's a 3-4 round ADP. 

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On 2/1/2017 at 0:10 PM, taobball said:

Don't have time for a full reply but if discipline is the concern how do you place Odor over Story? I'm much more worried about Odors K:BB than storys

 

also I think Story's ceiling for this year is .280, 38-15 or something to that accord with a ton of counting stats. Could be a first rounder in value so I don't buy the argument that third round is his ceiling.

 

I won't say I like Odor over Story as far as static stats at the end of the season, but the depth at SS far exceeds that at 2B. 

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On 2/1/2017 at 6:54 AM, sngehl01 said:

 

This is a very good, well written piece. Still, I *will not* be putting my money on story unless it makes sense to do so where he is being drafted. The ADP I saw had him in the top 40. I'm not passing on guys like Odor, Martinez, McCutchen for him. Aledmys Diaz has an ADP of 100 picks later? It's a no brainer for me. 

It's worth mentioning I play in leagues where K's are detrimental (it's fantasy point, and each K being -.5 points, with each total base being a point, each run rbi a point, each stolen base a point and a half). It's not really relevant for others, but it is for me.

Aside from that, I expect a drop from Story across the board.  As you alluded to, I see him struggling to top a .260 batting average, and with fewer balls in general in play, the #'s come down. Couple that with the fact that I think he simply played out of his mind for an extended period of time, I think another regression is in order. 

 

I don't like buying guys at their ceiling, unless I think it's repeatable. I think Story is both 1) at his ceiling, and 2) it isn't repeatable. 

He's not my flavor, but I wouldn't dog someone for coveting the HR upside, especially with double digit speed and in a 5x5 league. 

This 

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1 hour ago, mysonx3 said:

And I'm here to tell you that it doesn't make sense not to

 

That is grossly incorrect. It absolutely makes sense to pass on him until it doesn't. If what you said was correct, you take him 1 overall. Trout is someone it never makes sense to pass on. 

Story in the 3/4? Sure, if you like the guy. I don't. I don't take him at his ADP because I don't think he lives up to his ADP, regardless of what his ceiling is. In the 6th/7th and later rounds? Doesn't make sense to pass on him anymore. That's my point. I only take him if he really falls. That's it. 

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1 hour ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I won't say I like Odor over Story as far as static stats at the end of the season, but the depth at SS far exceeds that at 2B. 

 

I'm not so sure about the depth re SS vs. 2B.  SS arguably falls off way faster than 2B in terms of power-speed options once Story/Villar/Segura go not to mention the late round guys available at 2B (Travis/Forsythe) vs.SS (Gregorious/Arcia).

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2 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

That is grossly incorrect. It absolutely makes sense to pass on him until it doesn't. If what you said was correct, you take him 1 overall. Trout is someone it never makes sense to pass on. 

Story in the 3/4? Sure, if you like the guy. I don't. I don't take him at his ADP because I don't think he lives up to his ADP, regardless of what his ceiling is. In the 6th/7th and later rounds? Doesn't make sense to pass on him anymore. That's my point. I only take him if he really falls. That's it. 

I enjoy reading how people perceive certain players.  Players like Trevor seem to bring out strong opinions for and against drafting at his ADP.  

In a typical draft when you are high on somebody you will need to take said player before their ADP.  If you aren't high on said player,  it won't matter if you wait because player will usually be gone.  

Trevor Story's ADP has gone up and I see him around 30 right now I think because he does hit a lot of fly balls with power and he's playing in Colorado,  and he's a SS.  His batting average is certainly up for debate.  I agree with those who think he could have a big year and will plan accordingly.

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I feel like the last two pages are heavily driven by ADP vs format issues. If you play in a K penalizing points league, of course you're knocking him down from ADP. That format is very far from a 5x5, which drives most of ADP, and really if you play that format you prob need to ignore it. Or at least severely adjust from it. 

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4 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

Who really predicted Kris Bryant would cut his K rate by 25%, and increase his homers by 50%? None of us can predict with a very high level of certainty what a guy will do in 2017. I'll let you be the one who rolls the dice on his sophomore season. 

 

Like... literally me. Maybe not the direct extent, but the usage of Kris Bryant to support your argument is hilarious because it doesn't do anything of the sort... I believe in 2015 that there were clear reasons to believe Bryant would make leaps forward in 2016 and they happened. It was predictable. I made a mammoth post on why this was predictable. If you're conclusions on most players are the same as Story, i.e.: 

4 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

It's a gut feeling,

 

Then there's nothing I can do to form a relevant argument. If you just go on your gut.. I mean good for you but if I see evidence that goes in an entirely different direction that's far more valuable. 

 

In terms of ACTUAL data, you referenced an Article from April 27th, 2016. There's a huge fallacy in that because how Trevor Story adjusted to those adjustments is the primary reasons where I just am not at all concerned in the things you're concerned with. The fact that you're citing an article from April 27th when he played for about three months afterward is a huge issue because it ignores everything that happened after April 27th, which is the main reason for the hype, not what happened before. 

 

Firstly, the range of BAs is far too low to me. I project story to hit right around that .269 clip and that's a conservative estimate to me. Trevor Story could easily hit .285 and I wouldn't blink at all. It would be completely unsurprising. 

 

Your notion that you're "buying Story at his ceiling" is simply untrue. If Story is a .285/40/15/100/100 hitter this year he's more than likely going to be at or near the first round going into 2018. Right now he's falling to me consistently in the third round in Yahoo leagues. That's not buying at the ceiling. If I drafted him at pick #15 I'd be buying at or near the ceiling. 

 

You're just completely ignoring the adjustments and improvements Story made throughout the 2016 season. Walk rate and strikeout rate stabilize rather quickly. Fangraphs suggests that BB% stabilizes in merely 120 PAs and K% in 1/2 that amount of time. 

 

Story had 415 PAs in 2016.

 

In his first 209 PAs (Beginning of Season --> May 28th) Story had a 6.7% K% and a 34.0% K%. 

In his final 206 PAs (May 28th --> End of Season) Story had a 10.2% BB% and a 28.6% K%

 

In those final 206 PAs he had a BABIP of .330 which is completely sustainable in Coors Field. His xBABIP, which does not account for Coors, was .338, meaning that his batted ball data suggests that, in his final 206 PAs, he was more UNLUCKY than LUCKY. In those 206 PAs he had a .274/.363/.559 slash line with 14 HRs and 5 SBs. This does not include his initial hot streak in the season obviously and to me, there is nothing flukey about any of the numbers in the data. If you were to extrapolate those numbers to 600 PAs you'd have:

 

.274, 41 HRs, 14.5 SBs. 

 

Story has excellent Plate Discipline which people just seem to be overwhelmingly ignoring. His BB% increased as the season went on, reaching double digits in his personal second half (part of the adjustment to the article you posted). On the season, his Chase Rate on pitches outside the zone was 2.5% Below Average and his Swing% in the Zone was 0.1% Above league average, so he swung in the zone at a league average rate and chased much better than league average. The Ks are all directly tied to contact. Two primary reasons why this is not a concern:
 

1.) Hitters with good PD can make up for Contact% by being patient, taking walks, and getting the right pitches. 

2.) Coors field reduces the movement on breaking pitches and thus increases Contact% for hitters while at home.

 

A third reason: Ignoring everything specific to Trevor Story, I've been workign for a while on a piece about first year to second year players and how they improve in terms of K%, Whiff% and Contact%, and so far it seems that the majority of players do improve in these categories. So in general, as a second year player without glaring signs of otherwise and showcasing plus Plate Discipline, I would expect Story's contact% to improve. 

 

As is, and this is the third time I'm posting this, Story's advanced Plate Discipline metrics already suggest he's in line for substantial improvements in terms of K%: 

 

Quote

 

Here's the closest comp I found from 2000-2016:

 

Player A (Story):

O-Swing: 27.8%

Z-Swing: 66.8%

O-Contact: 56.2%

Z-Contact: 80.7%

SwStr%: 12.5%

 

Player B: 

O-Swing: 27.8%

Z-Swing: 65.6% 

O-Contact: 56.1%

Z-Contact: 80.3%

SwStr%: 12.5%

 

Those numbers are shockingly similar, with the largest difference being 1.2% and the second largest being 0.4%. 

 

And while it may not be a comp that makes you rush to draft tables or knocks your socks off, that was Corey Hart in 2012, who had a .270/.334/.507 Slash line, 30 HRs, a 7.1% BB%, and a 24.3% K%. Yet for some reason if you suggest Story can go below 27% people think it's crazy. But the closest historical comp for the exact same plate discipline metrics came out to a K% that, for Story, would be seen as insanely manageable....

 

 

If he repeats those metrics and still carries a K% over even 28% I'll be more than reasonably surprised. I expect a pretty large decline to at least what he was doing in the second half (again HIS second half not THE second half), which was 28.6%, and if I had to wager, I'd expect it to drop a bit lower. 

 

This is the primary reason why I think it's hilarious that you post an article from April 27th: Because to me, the very article that you use as a means to attack Story is the very reason that I"m so excited about Story: Because he READJUSTED to the league after the league adjusted to him. That is the mark of a true big league hitter. For the upteenth time TBBT said it earlier in this thread: it's just incredibly surprising to me that a hitter who did all the things I typically look for to determine success is being looked at as if he didn't do those things:
1.) He reduced his K%

2.) He increased his BB%

3.) Both of these were attached to an adjustment in approach that was reactionary to the league, a true mark of a big league hitter.

4.) He's shown ability to improve in terms of contact and Whiff% (While Story did Whiff at more Fastballs in his second half, his Whiff% on Change-Ups reduced from 15.66% to 9.09%, on Sliders from 19.55% to 17.91%, and on Curves from 28.40% to 7.69%. While the slider gain is marginal, the Curve and Change-Up are highly significant. His lowest SLG on any individual pitch type was .483).

5.) He showed consistent power.

6.) He showed consistent speed.

7.) He showed a consistently plus approach at the plate

8.) He produced exit velocities at an elite level throughout the season. 

 

And finally.

 

9.) He plays in ******** Coors. 

 

Like what do you actually have to see that you haven't seen already? 

 

Now will he carry some pretty stark home/road splits? Sure he will, but so do a lot of hitters in Coors. The fact of the matter is that even if we only see it at home, the 11.5% BB% and 24.8% K% that he showed at Home in that second half with 12 HRs, and a .344 BA will be good enough to carry his away numbers fairly easily and justify his ADP. Plenty of Coors hitters justify their year end stats with stark Home/Road splits, there's a direct effect that Coors has that reduces your away numbers. The idea that he could just do what he did last season for a full year gives you the idea of where the even higher ceiling comes from. 

 

I don't mean this as an insult so don't take it as one, but I'm glad you said it was a "gut feeling" because to me, a "gut feeling" is about the only way that I can justify the opinion that he's just going to fall off a cliff and not produce at a 3rd/4th round value. There's ample evidence to support the legitimacy of what Story did and the ample upside. There's very little evidence to suggest he's going to fall apart and no one's been able to show me really any reason to the contrary of anything I've said.

 

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34 minutes ago, taobball said:

And while it may not be a comp that makes you rush to draft tables or knocks your socks off, that was Corey Hart in 2012, who had a .270/.334/.507 Slash line, 30 HRs, a 7.1% BB%, and a 24.3% K%. Yet for some reason if you suggest Story can go below 27% people think it's crazy. But the closest historical comp for the exact same plate discipline metrics came out to a K% that, for Story, would be seen as insanely manageable....

taobball killing it taobball style with this breakdown.    A little frightening how good it is and how quickly you can put it together.

 

That was age 30 for Corey "I wear my sunglasses at night" Hart in Milwaukee.  

Trevor age 24 in Colorado in a good lineup should have lots of guys on base with lots of good hitting counts.

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6 hours ago, sngehl01 said:


What do you mean I keep failing to cite reasons? It's a gut feeling, I'm avoiding Story unless it doesn't make sense not to. I feel like his poor K rate and his astronomically hot start have driven his price way higher than it should be. What do you want me to cite, that I have 6 years of a successful call in psychic business under my belt? 

Draft him all you want. My opinion is he is to be avoided, yours is he isn't. So be it. Draft him. I don't care. I really don't. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/theyve-adjusted-to-trevor-story/

 

He has projections renging from 24-36 homers, batting averages from .243 to .269, sb from 11-13. Draft him. You want a guy who can be anything from a .243 hitter with 24 homers to a .269 guy with 36 homers, draft him. I'll take a guy like Diaz who has an ADP 100 spots lower, is less volatile, with some moderate upside. 

 

Is it possible he improves? Sure. Is it possible he regresses? Sure. Who really predicted Kris Bryant would cut his K rate by 25%, and increase his homers by 50%? None of us can predict with a very high level of certainty what a guy will do in 2017. I'll let you be the one who rolls the dice on his sophomore season. 

 

I know his #'s in 2016 were great, what you are throwing at me on a month by month analysis means literally nothing to me. The dude was ripping the cover off the ball. I don't think that trend continues. Maybe it burns me, but I absolutely don't draft him with what's a 3-4 round ADP. 

 

Uh... or actually use baseball metrics or some sort of data that actually back up your opinion.. Coming on here saying you have a gut feeling is going to get you laughed off the thread time and time again. Like I said I can't take anyone seriously unless they have reasons for their opinion.. sorry a gut feeling isn't going to convince me otherwise.. If you don't care what anyone thinks than why are you even posting? This message board is geared to sharing information with other fantasy owners.. saying you have a "gut feeling" really doesn't add much to the thread (no offense).. but if you had insightful data/trends that showed other wise.. that could be extremely valuable to see both sides of the Story argument. 

 

And lol at the last part.. yeah lets completely avoid/ignore the fact he improved through out the season (especially a rookie).. that makes a ton of sense. 

Edited by JenksDodger
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Was really impressed with him last year especially with the improvements/adjustments he made during the season as a rookie. He's an elite power hitting SS with some speed as well playing half his games in Coors... ya I'm in! I get the concerns about his batting average but I think anybody questioning it doesn't realize how hard it is to hit below .250 playing half of your games in Coors. This is a player with top 5 overall upside in my opinion. 

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15 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Like... literally me. Maybe not the direct extent, but the usage of Kris Bryant to support your argument is hilarious because it doesn't do anything of the sort... I believe in 2015 that there were clear reasons to believe Bryant would make leaps forward in 2016 and they happened. It was predictable. I made a mammoth post on why this was predictable. If you're conclusions on most players are the same as Story, i.e.: 

 

Then there's nothing I can do to form a relevant argument. If you just go on your gut.. I mean good for you but if I see evidence that goes in an entirely different direction that's far more valuable. 

 

In terms of ACTUAL data, you referenced an Article from April 27th, 2016. There's a huge fallacy in that because how Trevor Story adjusted to those adjustments is the primary reasons where I just am not at all concerned in the things you're concerned with. The fact that you're citing an article from April 27th when he played for about three months afterward is a huge issue because it ignores everything that happened after April 27th, which is the main reason for the hype, not what happened before. 

 

Firstly, the range of BAs is far too low to me. I project story to hit right around that .269 clip and that's a conservative estimate to me. Trevor Story could easily hit .285 and I wouldn't blink at all. It would be completely unsurprising. 

 

Your notion that you're "buying Story at his ceiling" is simply untrue. If Story is a .285/40/15/100/100 hitter this year he's more than likely going to be at or near the first round going into 2018. Right now he's falling to me consistently in the third round in Yahoo leagues. That's not buying at the ceiling. If I drafted him at pick #15 I'd be buying at or near the ceiling. 

 

You're just completely ignoring the adjustments and improvements Story made throughout the 2016 season. Walk rate and strikeout rate stabilize rather quickly. Fangraphs suggests that BB% stabilizes in merely 120 PAs and K% in 1/2 that amount of time. 

 

Story had 415 PAs in 2016.

 

In his first 209 PAs (Beginning of Season --> May 28th) Story had a 6.7% K% and a 34.0% K%. 

In his final 206 PAs (May 28th --> End of Season) Story had a 10.2% BB% and a 28.6% K%

 

In those final 206 PAs he had a BABIP of .330 which is completely sustainable in Coors Field. His xBABIP, which does not account for Coors, was .338, meaning that his batted ball data suggests that, in his final 206 PAs, he was more UNLUCKY than LUCKY. In those 206 PAs he had a .274/.363/.559 slash line with 14 HRs and 5 SBs. This does not include his initial hot streak in the season obviously and to me, there is nothing flukey about any of the numbers in the data. If you were to extrapolate those numbers to 600 PAs you'd have:

 

.274, 41 HRs, 14.5 SBs. 

 

Story has excellent Plate Discipline which people just seem to be overwhelmingly ignoring. His BB% increased as the season went on, reaching double digits in his personal second half (part of the adjustment to the article you posted). On the season, his Chase Rate on pitches outside the zone was 2.5% Below Average and his Swing% in the Zone was 0.1% Above league average, so he swung in the zone at a league average rate and chased much better than league average. The Ks are all directly tied to contact. Two primary reasons why this is not a concern:
 

1.) Hitters with good PD can make up for Contact% by being patient, taking walks, and getting the right pitches. 

2.) Coors field reduces the movement on breaking pitches and thus increases Contact% for hitters while at home.

 

A third reason: Ignoring everything specific to Trevor Story, I've been workign for a while on a piece about first year to second year players and how they improve in terms of K%, Whiff% and Contact%, and so far it seems that the majority of players do improve in these categories. So in general, as a second year player without glaring signs of otherwise and showcasing plus Plate Discipline, I would expect Story's contact% to improve. 

 

As is, and this is the third time I'm posting this, Story's advanced Plate Discipline metrics already suggest he's in line for substantial improvements in terms of K%: 

 

 

If he repeats those metrics and still carries a K% over even 28% I'll be more than reasonably surprised. I expect a pretty large decline to at least what he was doing in the second half (again HIS second half not THE second half), which was 28.6%, and if I had to wager, I'd expect it to drop a bit lower. 

 

This is the primary reason why I think it's hilarious that you post an article from April 27th: Because to me, the very article that you use as a means to attack Story is the very reason that I"m so excited about Story: Because he READJUSTED to the league after the league adjusted to him. That is the mark of a true big league hitter. For the upteenth time TBBT said it earlier in this thread: it's just incredibly surprising to me that a hitter who did all the things I typically look for to determine success is being looked at as if he didn't do those things:
1.) He reduced his K%

2.) He increased his BB%

3.) Both of these were attached to an adjustment in approach that was reactionary to the league, a true mark of a big league hitter.

4.) He's shown ability to improve in terms of contact and Whiff% (While Story did Whiff at more Fastballs in his second half, his Whiff% on Change-Ups reduced from 15.66% to 9.09%, on Sliders from 19.55% to 17.91%, and on Curves from 28.40% to 7.69%. While the slider gain is marginal, the Curve and Change-Up are highly significant. His lowest SLG on any individual pitch type was .483).

5.) He showed consistent power.

6.) He showed consistent speed.

7.) He showed a consistently plus approach at the plate

8.) He produced exit velocities at an elite level throughout the season. 

 

And finally.

 

9.) He plays in ******** Coors. 

 

Like what do you actually have to see that you haven't seen already? 

 

Now will he carry some pretty stark home/road splits? Sure he will, but so do a lot of hitters in Coors. The fact of the matter is that even if we only see it at home, the 11.5% BB% and 24.8% K% that he showed at Home in that second half with 12 HRs, and a .344 BA will be good enough to carry his away numbers fairly easily and justify his ADP. Plenty of Coors hitters justify their year end stats with stark Home/Road splits, there's a direct effect that Coors has that reduces your away numbers. The idea that he could just do what he did last season for a full year gives you the idea of where the even higher ceiling comes from. 

 

I don't mean this as an insult so don't take it as one, but I'm glad you said it was a "gut feeling" because to me, a "gut feeling" is about the only way that I can justify the opinion that he's just going to fall off a cliff and not produce at a 3rd/4th round value. There's ample evidence to support the legitimacy of what Story did and the ample upside. There's very little evidence to suggest he's going to fall apart and no one's been able to show me really any reason to the contrary of anything I've said.

 

 

That's a lot of words to counter a guy saying "I don't trust him to repeat, based on x and y, so I'm avoiding him unless he's cheap."

By all means, draft the guy. Good luck to you. 

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8 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

That's a lot of words to counter a guy saying "I don't trust him to repeat, based on x and y, so I'm avoiding him unless he's cheap."

By all means, draft the guy. Good luck to you. 

 

The point isn't to counter you the point is to give information. Like I said, when x and y is "mah GUT" then there really isn't a counter.

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13 hours ago, JenksDodger said:

 

Uh... or actually use baseball metrics or some sort of data that actually back up your opinion.. Coming on here saying you have a gut feeling is going to get you laughed off the thread time and time again. Like I said I can't take anyone seriously unless they have reasons for their opinion.. sorry a gut feeling isn't going to convince me otherwise.. If you don't care what anyone thinks than why are you even posting? This message board is geared to sharing information with other fantasy owners.. saying you have a "gut feeling" really doesn't add much to the thread (no offense).. but if you had insightful data/trends that showed other wise.. that could be extremely valuable to see both sides of the Story argument. 

 

And lol at the last part.. yeah lets completely avoid/ignore the fact he improved through out the season (especially a rookie).. that makes a ton of sense. 

 

Same to you. Draft the guy. Keep this handy, because one of us will be dead wrong. Laugh all you want. I want no part of a guy with an enormous K rate who had a rookie breakout. I will not pay the price it costs to find out what kind of second year player he will be. 

And the point is more I won't draft Story because of viable alternatives much later in the draft, like Aledmys Diaz. 

 

I also said (multiple times) that my personal preference is based on how my league is scored. I play in a league where you lose a point for every strikeout. I know it means nothing without context, but that's significant. 


Story averaged 3.1 in my league. Diaz averaged 3.0. I think one is due for a much worse regression than the other. An ADP of 100 separates the 2. 


There is no decision to be made here. 

Yes, he improved over the season. Yes, its' hard to argue with the fact the guy put up solid numbers month to month. 

Last season, he hit 27 homers in 97 games. Anoint him a 40 homer guy if you want. He batted .272

 

Depth Charts/Streamer/Fans(15) from fangraphs.com have him projected at (in order)

27 homers, .261 BA

24 homers, .261 BA

27 homers, .266 BA

 

from rotochamp, he's projected by rotochamp/cairo as well, which have him at

36 homers, .269 BA

27 homers, .274 BA

 

ZiPS put him at 26 homers, .260 BA

 

All of these are around 150 games. 

So yes, har har har, let's laugh at a simpletons opinion of why I avoid the guy (especially K rate in a league where K rate is highly detrimental).

 

I don't believe what he did last year is anywhere near sustainable, and I know guys will pay for what he did last year. I think he's likely a fine SS, but I'm not buying him in the top 5 yet. I'm also on the fence that the gap between him and the next 3 is SO WIDE that I pay the draft day price for him. 

 

Do I take him as my SS? Sure. Do I take him as my SS in the 3rd? Not a chance. 

You wanna buy his upside, go ahead. I'll pay for the floor, and let what is above it be gravy. I will reach on plenty of guys, but it won't be on a guy who was on pace for 200 k's. 
 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

The point isn't to counter you the point is to give information. Like I said, when x and y is "mah GUT" then there really isn't a counter.

 

See, it's not "just my gut." 

It's a "this is my gut, let me research the guy a little more in depth," and I read a considerable amount that reinforces what I already thought. Ok, move on, not wasting my time me. I have a 12 team keeper league where you lose the guy in the round he was drafted in, so Story would cost me a 12th. I'm on the fence to even keep him there, but that's mostly due to my 9 existing keeper selections, not how much I'm down on story. 

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2 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

See, it's not "just my gut." 

It's a "this is my gut, let me research the guy a little more in depth," and I read a considerable amount that reinforces what I already thought. Ok, move on, not wasting my time me. I have a 12 team keeper league where you lose the guy in the round he was drafted in, so Story would cost me a 12th. I'm on the fence to even keep him there, but that's mostly due to my 9 existing keeper selections, not how much I'm down on story. 

 

Okay then share the research. One of the primary points of me posting is to spark disagreement from others. I haven't seen you list anything of a research variety that counters any of my claims and would relish in the opportunity to read it. 

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8 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Same to you. Draft the guy. Keep this handy, because one of us will be dead wrong. Laugh all you want. I want no part of a guy with an enormous K rate who had a rookie breakout. I will not pay the price it costs to find out what kind of second year player he will be. 

And the point is more I won't draft Story because of viable alternatives much later in the draft, like Aledmys Diaz. 

 

I also said (multiple times) that my personal preference is based on how my league is scored. I play in a league where you lose a point for every strikeout. I know it means nothing without context, but that's significant. 


Story averaged 3.1 in my league. Diaz averaged 3.0. I think one is due for a much worse regression than the other. An ADP of 100 separates the 2. 


There is no decision to be made here. 

Yes, he improved over the season. Yes, its' hard to argue with the fact the guy put up solid numbers month to month. 

Last season, he hit 27 homers in 97 games. Anoint him a 40 homer guy if you want. He batted .272

 

Depth Charts/Streamer/Fans(15) from fangraphs.com have him projected at (in order)

27 homers, .261 BA

24 homers, .261 BA

27 homers, .266 BA

 

from rotochamp, he's projected by rotochamp/cairo as well, which have him at

36 homers, .269 BA

27 homers, .274 BA

 

ZiPS put him at 26 homers, .260 BA

 

All of these are around 150 games. 

So yes, har har har, let's laugh at a simpletons opinion of why I avoid the guy (especially K rate in a league where K rate is highly detrimental).

 

I don't believe what he did last year is anywhere near sustainable, and I know guys will pay for what he did last year. I think he's likely a fine SS, but I'm not buying him in the top 5 yet. I'm also on the fence that the gap between him and the next 3 is SO WIDE that I pay the draft day price for him. 

 

Do I take him as my SS? Sure. Do I take him as my SS in the 3rd? Not a chance. 

You wanna buy his upside, go ahead. I'll pay for the floor, and let what is above it be gravy. I will reach on plenty of guys, but it won't be on a guy who was on pace for 200 k's. 
 

 

I don't share information to prove others wrong. I do it because it helps other people.. If I'm wrong - so be it.. It won't be the first and it won't be the last time I'm wrong.. There is no exact science on it, but there sure are some contributing factors that you can analyze and make an informed decision on instead of a "gut feeling".

 

 

Edited by JenksDodger
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5 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Lmao... ohhhh well as long as your gut says so ?! Does your gut have any lotto numbers for me today? 

Taobball... great post as usual. I really enjoy and get some great info from your posts. Keep it up man. 

 

It was a great post. But I will say, Story is one guy you will never convince me to draft at his ADP. That's all I'm saying. I will not take a guy who strikes out 200 times in the third round. Period. His #'s may suggest it is extremely sustainable, but we're talking a sub 100 game sample. One real good hot streak would do wonders. 

 

His BABIP drops from .343 to, oh, IDK a healty .320,with a tick up in K rate, from 31.3 to 32.5 or so, he's a .255 hitter last year. Neither of those are outside of the realm of possibility, and I think, realistically, he's a .260 hitter with 25 homers. Fine numbers, but not 3rd round fine.  

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Okay then share the research. One of the primary points of me posting is to spark disagreement from others. I haven't seen you list anything of a research variety that counters any of my claims and would relish in the opportunity to read it. 

Information is power.  Thanks for sharing.  If people want to disregard it,  that's on them.  Lots of people come here to learn stuff.

 

"This is gold Jerry"

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7 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Same to you. Draft the guy. Keep this handy, because one of us will be dead wrong. Laugh all you want. I want no part of a guy with an enormous K rate who had a rookie breakout. I will not pay the price it costs to find out what kind of second year player he will be. 

And the point is more I won't draft Story because of viable alternatives much later in the draft, like Aledmys Diaz. 

 

I also said (multiple times) that my personal preference is based on how my league is scored. I play in a league where you lose a point for every strikeout. I know it means nothing without context, but that's significant. 


Story averaged 3.1 in my league. Diaz averaged 3.0. I think one is due for a much worse regression than the other. An ADP of 100 separates the 2. 


There is no decision to be made here. 

Yes, he improved over the season. Yes, its' hard to argue with the fact the guy put up solid numbers month to month. 

Last season, he hit 27 homers in 97 games. Anoint him a 40 homer guy if you want. He batted .272

 

Depth Charts/Streamer/Fans(15) from fangraphs.com have him projected at (in order)

27 homers, .261 BA

24 homers, .261 BA

27 homers, .266 BA

 

from rotochamp, he's projected by rotochamp/cairo as well, which have him at

36 homers, .269 BA

27 homers, .274 BA

 

ZiPS put him at 26 homers, .260 BA

 

All of these are around 150 games. 

So yes, har har har, let's laugh at a simpletons opinion of why I avoid the guy (especially K rate in a league where K rate is highly detrimental).

 

I don't believe what he did last year is anywhere near sustainable, and I know guys will pay for what he did last year. I think he's likely a fine SS, but I'm not buying him in the top 5 yet. I'm also on the fence that the gap between him and the next 3 is SO WIDE that I pay the draft day price for him. 

 

Do I take him as my SS? Sure. Do I take him as my SS in the 3rd? Not a chance. 

You wanna buy his upside, go ahead. I'll pay for the floor, and let what is above it be gravy. I will reach on plenty of guys, but it won't be on a guy who was on pace for 200 k's. 
 

 

Your point on league context is valid so that's fair enough. Story contributes far more categorical value than Aledmys. 

 

As far as the rest, nothing here is a reason to doubt story for anyone else. I find Logan Forsythe a viable alternative at 2B, this does not mean I won't draft a second baseman of any kind because I can get him 150 picks later. For the majority of leagues, Story would offer more power, speed, counting stats, and isn't much less likely to put up a good BA than Aledmys. That's why es going befor.

 

this notion that you're buying the upside, again, is bull**** unless you're drafting him in the first round. That's the upside. 

 

 

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