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Greg Bird 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Sine_cera said:

but there were lots of people predicting a 30/100 or 35/125 season because of what he did in spring training

 

And his .261/.343/.529 line in 2015 with 11 homers in less than 200 PA.

And the fact that he plays in an ideal ballpark for a left-handed power hitter, in the ideal division for a left-handed power hitter.

And his prospect pedigree.
 

I mean, if you were fading him because you thought he wouldn't amount to anything, then bully for you, but we all have to make decisions about how high to go with players like Bird based on incomplete information.  If you wait for enough data points to establish a track record, then the player is already on someone else's team.

 

Was there irrational exuberance in drafts?  Of course, but even at the high end of where he was going, the 1B folks missed out on are guys like Pujols, Belt, and Gonzalez -- not guys you have a really hard time replacing from the wire in a lot of leagues.  You can cherry-pick certain guys who were still on the board that any redraft owner would love to have over Bird right now, but the amount you lost by taking him at 90 or 110 or whatever isn't going to make or break your season, whereas if he'd shown even some of the production everyone thought was there, you'd be in great shape.

 

There were a lot of reasons beyond spring training that people were pumping Bird's value.  Congrats on not buying into the hype, and I'm sure you'll be back to tell us about all the other hype trains you missed out on that ended up paying off.

Edited by tonycpsu
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If this thread is any indication I'd buy low in deeper leagues. Shallow leagues seems like you can pick him whenever.

 

Bird has the biggest differential in power and expected power per hq advanced stats.

 

People calling this guy a bum and probably never going to go back to him because they were burned are going to be disappointed.

 

The hype clearly got out of control. The sad part is Rotoworld actually warned you all in spring training blurbs that the hype was going to get out of control. You have nobody but  yourself to blame if you drafted him as a lock for 30 hr with a decent average in the middle of the lineup all year.

 

Everyone with your "he is a bum tweets", just calm yourselves or brace yourselves for being quoted later this year.

 

He could very well not be a superstar but I think he's going to be a regular on the Yankees and eventually that lefty power is going to make some waves in Yankee Stadium.

 

Ryan Zimmerman was underrated and per draft slot is going to be a much better value, but he's as injury risk as it comes. This reminds me of a debate on this thread years ago when people screamed Veto about trading a young Hosmer for Laroche a few weeks into the season when Hosmer was like a 5th rounder. Laroche ended up having a better season. I think more than anything what we can learn is that we dismiss too many 30 year old first basemen who aren't coming off good years. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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I gave up on Jackie Bradley last year and it burned my a** when he went on his May hot streak.  

 

I'm giving Bird until May 15th.  If he can't turn it around then, it's time to punt.  I'm in a competitive keeper league but with the 10 day DL, letting this guy soak up a spot on the roster hoping he learns to hit a fastball has been tough.  He gets two more weeks then it's time to move on.  

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I panic drafted Bird in my league, but I'm holding out hope. Like has been said, the hype train got way out of control in ST. The fact that he is walking more is a good sign, and the calendar just turned over to May. He did have surgery and miss an entire year of baseball, so some rust against big league pitching should be expected.

 

And just so you all (and me) can feel a tad better for yourselves, his wRC+ of 44 is only slightly worse than Carlos Gonzalez (47) and Mark Trumbo (49); and he has a better wRC+ than: Javier Baez (41), Jonathan Lucroy (41), Jose Peraza (37), Mike Napoli (30), Tommy Joseph (27), Dansby Swanson (15), and Curtis Granderson (7).

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The apologists out in full force...

 

The fact of the matter is he's hot garbage right now. Outside of deep leagues and AL-Only's, there is no reason to burn a roster spot holding on to him. He was a late round draft pick for most people, so you didn't invest much anyway. I promise you he's not getting picked up in the vast majority of leagues where he is being dropped. 

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27 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

The apologists out in full force...

 

 

 

 

Not about being an apologist. He's going to be better unless he's hurt or gets hurt. I think this is a matter of if you play in shallow 10-12 team leagues without short benches. Such fantasy baseball is a lot more luck involved so I get cutting bait. If you can monitor him and think he'll be easy to acquire because half your league doesn't pay attention and you have first come first serve free agency, by all means cut him for something you deem more valuable.

 

http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-analysis-sabermetrics/2017/4/29/15481788/yankees-greg-bird-stats-struggle

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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A lot of us play in deep, AL-only, or keeper leagues. Spring training did show that the shoulder's healthy and the power should be fine, which is more than we knew in February. The full year away from hitting should be expected to have an impact. In a lot of leagues, I doubt he'll burn you all that much if you drop him. In certain leagues, though, I am holding or looking to buy. This slow first month back should not be surprising.

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I dunno I'm fairly certain that if I drop him he'll be scooped immediately in my 12 teamer. Keon Broxton was (K'ing 40%!), Bird will be snapped up as well. A lot of owners will take a shot at upside for free, he's still got some sexiness to his name as bad as he's been.

 

I just can't bring myself to make a Yonder Alonso or equivalent swap to lose out on Bird's potential. He'll get it turned around and when Sanchez gets back to even 80% of what he did last year the Yanks are gonna have a top offense in baseball. There'll be plenty of counting stats to go around, especially if he can keep a 14% walk rate.

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9 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 If you're needing a roster spot you can likely cut bait and get him back if he has a couple good games.

 

That's my biggest issue with the 10-day DL. It makes it harder to bench struggling players. I have several struggling hitters (including Bird) that I don't want to drop but also tons of injured players. So I have no choice than to drop some of those struggling guys. It sucks. 

 

My expectations for Bird at the beginning of the season were 20/75 and I still believe he can reach those numbers. 

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14 hours ago, !!! said:

I dunno I'm fairly certain that if I drop him he'll be scooped immediately in my 12 teamer. Keon Broxton was (K'ing 40%!), Bird will be snapped up as well. A lot of owners will take a shot at upside for free, he's still got some sexiness to his name as bad as he's been.

 

Keep him because you think he's good. Don't keep him because you're afraid someone will scoop him up. If you trust your own judgement then you shouldn't care if someone else picks up a certain player. Let them deal with the struggles and waste a roster spot. 

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36 minutes ago, Darkthrone said:

He's now hitting .100 so this is probably rock bottom. On the bright side the only place to go from here is up.... right?

 

Would anyone really be shocked if he went down... to AAA?

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3 hours ago, Darkthrone said:

He's now hitting .100 so this is probably rock bottom. On the bright side the only place to go from here is up.... right?

Well, he was hitting .107 a couple days ago and pretty sure we thought that was rock bottom... Dropped all my shares. Feels good.

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He shohld go to AAA.  We've seen cases of guys who just lose it mentally, go down to AAA to have success vs inferior pitching and get their mojo back.  He missed a full year last year.  I don't care if the Yankees are 26-0 to start the season.  Success of the start shouldn't be a reason to keep this guy floundering.  You leave these guys out there too long you run the risk of losing them.  Happened in Seattle with many guys that dogs*** mother****** Jack Zduriencik let waffle away.  He needs a refresher course.  It isn't working and it likely isn't going to work out to the tune of anything extremely successful at the MLB level with his current situation.

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21 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

He shohld go to AAA.  We've seen cases of guys who just lose it mentally, go down to AAA to have success vs inferior pitching and get their mojo back.  He missed a full year last year.  I don't care if the Yankees are 26-0 to start the season.  Success of the start shouldn't be a reason to keep this guy floundering.  You leave these guys out there too long you run the risk of losing them.  Happened in Seattle with many guys that dogs*** mother****** Jack Zduriencik let waffle away.  He needs a refresher course.  It isn't working and it likely isn't going to work out to the tune of anything extremely successful at the MLB level with his current situation.

Two more games in the home stand vs righties (Latos and Stroman) before they head to Chicago. Pure speculation by me but I feel he gets sent to Triple A if he doesn't hit these next two days. I've held onto him this long (on my bench) but I'll be dropping the second he gets sent down.

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13 minutes ago, Fantasy Dork said:

Placed on the 10-Day DL with an ankle injury (per Owner's Box).

 

This might actually be the best news ever.

 

1. Makes room to replace him without dropping 

2. Clears his head

3. Profit? 

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