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Mark Trumbo 2017 Outlook


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https://www.numberfire.com/mlb/news/14303/fantasy-baseball-mark-trumbo-is-off-to-a-frightening-start?utm_campaign=Contact+Quiboat+For+More+Referrer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=quiboat

 

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Mark Trumbo stole two bases all of last season, and he already has one steal through 19 games this year.

That concludes the portion of this article in which we say nice things about the way Trumbo has started the 2017 campaign.

After a putting it all together in a 47-homer performance a year ago, setting career-best marks basically across the board, Trumbo was always a safe bet to regress a bit this season. But this? Whew -- it's been bad.

The market -- both in real life and fantasy -- wasn't too hyped about Trumbo. Despite the 47 taters, he had an average draft position of 70th overall, per data from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. A guy three homers shy of 50 who was returning to basically the same situation -- good lineup and a hitter-friendly home park -- couldn't crack the top 50 overall players? Well, we're not even a month in, and it's already looking like his ADP was way too high.

Trumbo owns a .203/.244/.284 line through 78 plate appearances, posting a .081 ISO and 44 wRC+. His batted-ball numbers are the truly horrifying thing as he's sporting a 22.2% hard-hit rate, 38.9% fly-ball rate and 23.8% infield-fly-ball rate.

That's not exactly a recipe for power, and those marks pale in comparison to what Trumbo did a season ago.

Year wOBA ISO wRC+ Hard-Hit Rate Fly-Ball Rate
2016 .358 .277 123 39.3% 43.1%
2017 .234 .081 44 22.2% 38.9%


Surely, Trumbo's power numbers won't stay this low all year, but there aren't many signs of a big uptick in production.

His BABIP isn't to blame as it's nearly identical to what it was in 2016. In addition to everything above, his walk rate is down 2.5% (7.6% to 5.1%), and his dog probably died (hopefully not).

Are there any positives? Eh, a few. His strikeout rate (25.6%) is in line with his career average (25.0%) while his home-run-per-fly-ball clip of 4.8% is unlucky, even with his putrid batted-ball marks. And the steals -- don't forget about those swipes.

But jokes aside, things don't look good.

Trumbo turned himself into a 47-dong guy by hitting more balls harder than he ever had while hitting more fly balls than he ever had. That was good. Now, he's got a career-low hard-hit rate paired with career worsts in fly-ball rate and infield-fly-ball rate. That's the opposite of good.

Sure, it's early, but fly-ball rate starts to stabilize around 80 balls in play, according to FanGraphs, and Trumbo is already at 94 balls in play. The struggle bus is on the turnpike, and the next exit is a long ways away.

Our models project him to hit 31 homers the rest of the season, which Trumbo owners would jump at right this second, but other projection models aren't as optimistic -- with Steamer (.254/.312/.477 with 26 jacks) and ZiPS (.247/.300/.472 and 27 bombs) each forecasting him for less rest-of-season production.

You probably won't be able to find another owner still dreaming on Trumbo's 40-homer upside -- if you can, offer that dude a deal 15 minutes ago and pray for him -- but if you can get another top-100 player for the Baltimore Orioles' struggling slugger, now may be the time to pull the trigger before his value completely craters.

 

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1 hour ago, BohCountyBats said:

Wow, very discouraging article. But you know as soon as I bench him hes gonna have a 5 homer week.

I benched him tonight.  I expect a thank you tomorrow when he goes off 

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5 hours ago, Fister?Ihardlyknowher said:

Does he have a history of slow starts? This guy is killing my average and giving me nothing far. Is he a sell or hold?

I doubt you'd get anything if you sold, pennies on the dollar, and he's certainly not a drop 

 

I've been benching him the past few nights 

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5 hours ago, Fister?Ihardlyknowher said:

Does he have a history of slow starts? This guy is killing my average and giving me nothing far. Is he a sell or hold?

 

actually he's typically a fast starter and fades after the AS break.

 

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On 5/6/2017 at 9:55 AM, sjp263 said:

How long do we hold onto him? He's been lousy. Anyone think he tops more than 20 homeruns this year, which is easily replacement level value?

 

Just be patient. I've seen quite a few of his bats, he is just missing going yard on a couple of them. He will get it going soon.

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I'm confident that he'll hit 30-40 dingers.  It's still really early.  Everyone seems to forget that it's a 162 game season.  The O's are only 31 games in at 21-10; and Trumbo has been meh.

 

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25 minutes ago, verycoolnin said:

I'm confident that he'll hit 30-40 dingers.  It's still really early.  Everyone seems to forget that it's a 162 game season.  The O's are only 31 games in at 21-10; and Trumbo has been meh.

 

I don't think anyone has forgotten the season length. The main concern is he's usually a first half performer and then fades in the second half. Well we are nearing the quarter season mark already and he's been completely useless.

 

I do appreciate the dinger tonight though, and the thank you card is in the mail.

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Orioles manager Buck Showalter announced Saturday that Mark Trumbo will see more time at first base in 2017 in an effort to keep Chris Davis fresh.

Trumbo appeared in 96 games in the outfield in 2016 but saw just six games at first base. With the designated hitter spot freed up in the O's lineup, expect Showalter to find ways to give Trumbo and Davis plenty of breaks throughout the season. In leagues that require 10 or 20 games played at a position to earn eligibility, it sounds like Trumbo could gain some valuable versatility at some point during the season.
 
 
Jan 28 - 1:47 PM

 

So far the number of games Trumbo played at 1b is: ZERO.

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11 minutes ago, JCD said:

 

So far the number of games Trumbo played at 1b is: ZERO.

 

Is 1st base really that taxing of a position? and hard to put trumbo there when davis is a gold glover.

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12 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

A trumboner at last!

He likes the drama. Of his 5 bombs 1 was a walk off, 1 was a grand slam, and last night's came in the bottom of the ninth - down a run with 2 outs to tie it.

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2 hours ago, bradwatson said:

He likes the drama. Of his 5 bombs 1 was a walk off, 1 was a grand slam, and last night's came in the bottom of the ninth - down a run with 2 outs to tie it.

and his last two bombs were balls that were shoulder high.... no idea how he gets those out of the park 

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