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Alex Wood 2017 Outlook


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15 hours ago, Topgun said:

Any thoughts ? SP? RP?

I have been on this guy for a couple years now as a guy I really thought would be a good value, got him really cheap last year, but like most of my pitching staff, he stunk.  Whats got me hesitant about saying screw this guy is that I was kind of the same way with Danny Duffy, I think I grabbed him 2-3 years late in my auction with no return on investment, then I finally move off from him and he blows up.  If he has a job coming out of spring, Im probably a buyer (sucker) again. 

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Here is what is ahead of him currently according to Rotoworld's depth charts:

 

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Rich Hill
3. Kenta Maeda
4. Scott Kazmir
5. Julio Urias
6. Brandon McCarthy
7. Jose De Leon
8. Hyun-Jin Ryu
9. Ross Stripling

 

De Leon will most likely start the season in the minors. Who knows if Ryu will ever be ready again. During the winter meetings, Dodger beat-writer, Andy McCullough, had an interview with MLBN where he mentioned that the Dodgers are floating Kazmir and McCarthy out there as trade bait. Even if they trade one of those guys, Ryu to the DL & De Leon to the minors, there still isn't a spot without some injuries. Maybe at some point he gets a spot start or two, but my guess is that he'll be in MR. 

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He has a  somewhat funky lefty delivery which personally I think might lend itself towards being a reliever and if you look at some of his results from last year, even some of the bad stars, often times the first 3 innings were good to not that bad, it was often 5th 6th inning it would fall apart for him, also in Sept he was perfect as a reliever (granted not a huge sample size)

 

His inning by inning ERA was sub 3.00 in the first 3 innings was 4-4-10 innings 4-6.  His BA against 1st time hitters in the game was under .220 3rd time in the game was over .300.  

 

To me a lot of this screams either reliever OR is a pitcher who just was not at full stamina and full healthy to go that deep into games.  

 

 

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On December 9, 2016 at 10:11 AM, parrothead said:

I have been on this guy for a couple years now as a guy I really thought would be a good value, got him really cheap last year, but like most of my pitching staff, he stunk.  Whats got me hesitant about saying screw this guy is that I was kind of the same way with Danny Duffy, I think I grabbed him 2-3 years late in my auction with no return on investment, then I finally move off from him and he blows up.  If he has a job coming out of spring, Im probably a buyer (sucker) again. 

Don't let Danny Duffy fool you, he has better stuff and has been striking out 10+/9innings throughout his career/minors, also lowered his walks significantly last year

 

Alex Wood did get back to 9 k/9 and under 4.00 ERA, but Duffy's kept his velocity throughout the years. When Wood was good back in the day he threw around 93-95, avg fastball's been below 90 last two years. He could lower his walks and pitch to contact better, but I wouldn't invest in that happening. I doubt he's rostered through first few starts if he lands a starting job. It hurts me to say that as a Braves fan :( 

Edited by 2016FantasyChamp
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2 hours ago, 2016FantasyChamp said:

Don't let Danny Duffy fool you, he has better stuff and has been striking out 10+/9innings throughout his career/minors, also lowered his walks significantly last year

 

Alex Wood did get back to 9 k/9 and under 4.00 ERA, but Duffy's kept his velocity throughout the years. When Wood was good back in the day he threw around 93-95, avg fastball's been below 90 last two years. He could lower his walks and pitch to contact better, but I wouldn't invest in that happening. I doubt he's rostered through first few starts if he lands a starting job. It hurts me to say that as a Braves fan :( 

Wood was never sitting 93-95. He's hit 95 exactly once in his career, and his career high average velo as a SP is 91.1

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4 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Wood was never sitting 93-95. He's hit 95 exactly once in his career, and his career high average velo as a SP is 91.1

When I said 93-95, I meant he could hit 93-94 consistently and 95 is his fastest. Doesn't mean he sits there. I only reason I mentioned those exact numbers is bc hasnt hit above 93 since 2013 

 

Just read the chart. 

://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=13781&position=P&pitch=FA

 

Do you actually have anything to say or contribute? All I meant was his velocity and avg velocity has trended downhill each year so I wouldn't expect 2013 again 

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18 minutes ago, 2016FantasyChamp said:

When I said 93-95, I meant he could hit 93-94 consistently and 95 is his fastest. Doesn't mean he sits there. I only reason I mentioned those exact numbers is bc hasnt hit above 93 since 2013 

 

Just read the chart. 

://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=13781&position=P&pitch=FA

 

Do you actually have anything to say or contribute? All I meant was his velocity and avg velocity has trended downhill each year so I wouldn't expect 2013 again 

Keep it classy. There's no need for insults.

The numbers you posted were misleading - he was never hitting 93-94 consistently as a starter. In 2013, only 3% of the pitches (or about 5% of fastballs) he threw as a starter were 93 or faster. He touched 94 as a starter TWICE and never touched 95.

Also, I don't know why you're talking about whether 2013 will happen again when 2014 was his best season. That year he averaged 89.8 on the fastball (half a tick slower than he did last year).

With his K rate spiking dramatically, his walk rate basically unchanged and getting good whiffs on two different offspeed pitches, I'm buying Alex Wood next year.

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1 hour ago, mysonx3 said:

Keep it classy. There's no need for insults.

The numbers you posted were misleading - he was never hitting 93-94 consistently as a starter. In 2013, only 3% of the pitches (or about 5% of fastballs) he threw as a starter were 93 or faster. He touched 94 as a starter TWICE and never touched 95.

Also, I don't know why you're talking about whether 2013 will happen again when 2014 was his best season. That year he averaged 89.8 on the fastball (half a tick slower than he did last year).

With his K rate spiking dramatically, his walk rate basically unchanged and getting good whiffs on two different offspeed pitches, I'm buying Alex Wood next year.

My bad on that lol. I typing out and changing my expalanation of what I was trying to say for awhile and gave up and said "whatever, look at this". 

 

I didn't look that deep into Alex Wood, I just assumed he'll disappoint and assumed it was bc fastball dropped over career. And didn't care to look up with specific year were the good ole days and just said 2013. I honestly didn't think Alex Woods would be taken seriously 

 

You definitely know your stuff, I mistaken you for a guy that commented trying to argue everyone says, but you make good points. I also think I was reading the graph wrong and the higher velo's were when relieving in '13. And I didn't look hard into Alex Woods, so some of that I made up. You win this one, and I just got straight up exposeddddd

 

Also I was looking at your Heyward post and I've been learning about wRC+ trying to find ways to debunk Heyward vs Markakis lol 

Edited by 2016FantasyChamp
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18 minutes ago, 2016FantasyChamp said:

My bad on that lol. I typing out and changing my expalanation of what I was trying to say for awhile and gave up and said "whatever, look at this". 

 

I didn't look that deep into Alex Wood, I just assumed he'll disappoint and assumed it was bc fastball dropped over career. And didn't care to look up with specific year were the good ole days and just said 2013. I honestly didn't think Alex Woods would be taken seriously 

 

You definitely know your stuff, I mistaken you for a guy that commented trying to argue everyone says, but you make good points. I also think I was reading the graph wrong and the higher velo's were when relieving in '13. And I didn't look hard into Alex Woods, so some of that I made up. You win this one, and I just got straight up exposeddddd

 

Also I was looking at your Heyward post and I've been learning about wRC+ trying to find ways to debunk Heyward vs Markakis lol 

Wow, total props for owning up to a mistake like that. Lots of people would've tried to defend it with bogus reasoning, so kudos to you.

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  • 2 months later...

http://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-dodgers-kershaw-wood-20170307-story.html

 

When the Dodgers acquired Wood at the 2015 trade deadline, President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said the team had added a sorely needed young starting pitcher. Friedman said Tuesday that his belief in Wood has not wavered.

“He is a good major league starting pitcher,” Friedman said. “He is a great competitor and fits in really well within the fabric of our clubhouse.

“Obviously we have a number of really talented starters. We’re not sure exactly how things will play out, but we have a lot of confidence in him and feel very strongly he is going to help us win a lot of games this year.”

Wood could make the team as a reliever; Friedman said he expects him “to be one of the 12 or 13 helping us win games for sure.”

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for the last month or 2 my read on the dodgers rotation situation has been that it would start the year kershaw / hill / maeda / kazmir / mccarthy, with urias in extended spring to limit innings, wood in the pen, ryu probably on the DL, and stripling & brock stewart in AAA

 

but with kazmir's hip acting up again in his last start, which is the exact same problem that derailed kazmir last year over time - persistent hip tightness leading to a cascade of related physical and mechanical problems - that's a really bad sign for kazmir, and i can easily see him joining ryu in rehab-land

 

which would open things up for wood to get in

 

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I am in a deep mixed league and he isn't even on my radar.

Between injuries and ineffectiveness there are a lot better players to spend my time evaluating.

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49 minutes ago, B&F said:

I am in a deep mixed league and he isn't even on my radar.

Between injuries and ineffectiveness there are a lot better players to spend my time evaluating.

 

I think he is the exact type of player to have on your radar.  Last year as a starter he had a 3.99 ERA, 62K in 56.1 innings, 1.314 whip.  Nothing amazing, but definitely a decent fantasy # 6 in a deep league.  

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Do people see this guy's career numbers? At 26 years old, he could be one of the best SPs in the NL this year if they give him a shot. He had a rough year 2 years ago but it looked like his mechanics straightened out last year in the limited time he was starting. 

 

He's already had great seasons at a very young age. He had a 2.78 ERA, almost 9 K/9 and a 3.25 FIP at like 24 years old with the Braves. He could win 20 games this year with those numbers on the Dodgers. So underrated. 

Edited by dod959
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8 hours ago, B&F said:

I am in a deep mixed league and he isn't even on my radar.

Between injuries and ineffectiveness there are a lot better players to spend my time evaluating.

Injuries and ineffectiveness? He has a career 3.35 ERA and has been on the DL once in his career.

I'd suggest you put him on your radar, given his 9.9 K/9 as a starter last year, not to mention his ballpark, catcher, infield defense and league. He's a perfect end-game gamble with SP3-4 upside

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