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Alex Wood 2017 Outlook


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You have to start him. At some point, things are going to normalize for him, and he's going to be roughed up. But until then, you have to keep trotting him out there. At this point, I don't think there's a SP I have more confidence in on my roster than Wood. Probably says more about my staff than it says about him, though, LOL!

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35 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

You have to start him. At some point, things are going to normalize for him, and he's going to be roughed up. But until then, you have to keep trotting him out there. At this point, I don't think there's a SP I have more confidence in on my roster than Wood. Probably says more about my staff than it says about him, though, LOL!

 

What is normalized for him though? In 2013 and 2014 he was one of the better pitchers in the NL. If you look at his May last year (before he got hurt), he was back to pitching very well. Alex Wood has showed he can be a sub-3.30 ERA pitcher. And now he has the added velo. He won't keep pitching like an ace, and he'll probably get hurt at some point, but every time he's on the mound he's an SP2 for me. 

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Due to laziness and ignorance (mostly laziness, although I don't want to undersell the ignorance) I've been relying solely on wRC+ when gauging my SP matchups this season. This isn't to say I start the pitcher that's facing the lowest wRC+ lineup, just that it's the lone stat I use when making my decisions. Perhaps it's luck but it hasn't failed me yet. The Cubs road wRC+ is just 90, good for 19th in MLB.

 

Am I fully aware that by posting this he's going to get shellacked? You bet. I've been championing wRC+ across this board for weeks now and am bound to be whipping up large batches of crow to eat at some point. Plus, I feel like Arrieta is due for a strong performance so we can kiss the W goodbye. I just don't think the Cubs have been as Cubby as they were last year. But really, and as has been mentioned multiple times above, the way he's pitching right now you have to start him against anyone anywhere.

 

At this point though, I'm not sure what I'm dreading more -- the inevitable regression or the neverending horrible puns by excited owners after a great performance.

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36 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

What is normalized for him though? In 2013 and 2014 he was one of the better pitchers in the NL. If you look at his May last year (before he got hurt), he was back to pitching very well. Alex Wood has showed he can be a sub-3.30 ERA pitcher. And now he has the added velo. He won't keep pitching like an ace, and he'll probably get hurt at some point, but every time he's on the mound he's an SP2 for me. 

 

Normalize as in his ERA not remaining at 1.88 all season...drifting back towards 3.00. I'm not suggesting he's going to tank or have a 4.00 ERA, but he's not going to finish with a 1.88, imho. I could see 2.50ish and up. 

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I like him at home against anyone, blindfolded and drinking rum.

 

If you mean by "regress" that his command might ebb, or

that his FT might lose some spin or velo, then yeah maybe something more like league average+ ROS.

 

I'm more glass fully full on this guy, and see things slipping towards his xFIP & SIERA -- mid 2s ERA with continued elite WHIP & K/9 -- providing he stays healthy.

 

Last year, with Kyle Hendricks, it was early July when it clicked that you could bank on every start. Not there with this guy yet but c'mon. The only red flag in sight is that he's a baseball pitcher.

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All I'm saying is he's not going to maintain a 1.88 ERA. Not pointing out any red flags. Not saying he's going to bust. Not saying he's fools gold. But...he's going to get roughed up at some point because it happens to everyone of them. His ERA is going to normalize in that it won't stay at 1.88. 

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1 hour ago, TTRA1N said:

Who's starting against the Cubs?

 

At this point he is a must start against anyone home or away until proven otherwise. He went into Colorado a few weeks ago and shut them down. 

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Just now, TTRA1N said:

He us a must start from here on out. Certified Ace

 

Very happy with the start but he didn't go past 5. Had 3 balls on almost every hitter. my only complaint. Far from his best and he still threw 5 shutout innings. Stud

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5 minutes ago, Mickey Donovan said:

 

Very happy with the start but he didn't go past 5. Had 3 balls on almost every hitter. my only complaint. Far from his best and he still threw 5 shutout innings. Stud

Nvm. I didn't know he was out already. Was his pitch count high?

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He had Russell in a 1-2 count in the 5th. I'm betting if he got him out for the 3rd out instead of hitting him, he probably would have come out for the 6th to face 9 (Arrieta)-1-2.

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34 minutes ago, Afatguy said:

91. Could've gone another inning but Roberts chose to pinch hit for him.

 

They've been taking him out at around 90 pitches the whole season. He is super injury prone, remember. They are trying to keep him healthy. He has been amazingly efficient up until this point and has been getting through 6 innings under 90 pitches but today was another story. He was facing the defending world champions, after all, and they made him work. They were patient and also fouled off a lot of pitches, bringing his pitch count up. When evaluating his value to your team, keep in mind his pitch count limitations. In the long run, it will cost him some wins and will prevent him from getting the "quality start" statistic.

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8 minutes ago, lassetjus said:

 

They've been taking him out at around 90 pitches the whole season. He is super injury prone, remember. They are trying to keep him healthy. He has been amazingly efficient up until this point and has been getting through 6 innings under 90 pitches but today was another story. He was facing the defending world champions, after all, and they made him work. They were patient and also fouled off a lot of pitches, bringing his pitch count up. When evaluating his value to your team, keep in mind his pitch count limitations. In the long run, it will cost him some wins and will prevent him from getting the "quality start" statistic.

Plus, that Dodger bullpen is pretty good. If the Dodgers can stay healthy, and Hill can get his crap in gear, you'll see the Dodgers and Stros in the WS.

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On 5/12/2017 at 3:04 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I love Wood (lol), but I'm hoping he gets blown up again COL.

 

On 5/12/2017 at 5:57 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

When your opponent owns a guy, you generally don't want them to do well. Settle down, snowflake. Like I said, I like Wood and think he's a good pitcher, but the Rockies are obviously tough on lefties.

 

4 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Yet another good start. Loving it.

 

That was fast...guess you own him now.

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