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Byron Buxton 2017 Outlook


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12 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

What's "buying low" to you? 

 

And when the week is the same as the previous two years it really isn't much of an overreaction. The issues are still overwhelmingly glaring. Yes, it's a small sample, but it's a VERY poor sample. 

 

And again, I haven't dropped Buxton in ranking or opinion, but he's showing signs that he's the exact same hitter he was which isn't an ownable asset. 

 

You know what you are doing when it comes to player assessment. Strong work.

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13 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

What's "buying low" to you? 

 

And when the week is the same as the previous two years it really isn't much of an overreaction. The issues are still overwhelmingly glaring. Yes, it's a small sample, but it's a VERY poor sample. 

 

And again, I haven't dropped Buxton in ranking or opinion, but he's showing signs that he's the exact same hitter he was which isn't an ownable asset. 

 

And I don't wanna keep piling on because I know how it sounds but this is to be honest about how I see the situation:

 

I wanted to bring this split back up:

 

On 4/3/2017 at 8:45 PM, taobball said:

What's even a bit stranger is he bookended that month with appearances v. CWS. Here is that amazing split:

 

Sept./Oct. (CWS 7 Games): .462/.517/1.192, 17.2% K%

 

Sept./Oct. (Minus CWS): .227/.301/.467, 39.3% K%

 

Don't know if that means anything. I'm HOPING it doesn't represent that the laziness of one organization to not care in september inflated his numbers, but it is very interesting to me that when you take out the Sox his numbers really do fall completely apart. 

 

So don't get me wrong, I understand the argument. Obviously we're making a lot of a few games. No denying that here whatsoever, but if you always wait two months to see how players are performing someone else is gonna take the shot, so if you're going to move swiftly in this game you can't just ignore small sample, you don't necessarily BELIEVE in it, or think that it's going to be representative, but you can't just ignore it. 

 

But aside from that point, the point I'm essentially trying to make is that the "Pro-Buxton" argumenet, or at least the one borne out of his September numbers, is largely just another small sample. I mean those games against the CWS that really boosted up his numbers in September... there were only 7 of them... this season is almost half of that sample. 

 

I just don't get the sampling argument really. There isn't a pro-Buxton sampling argument. The longer sample says you shouldn't have drafted him. The talent and the ability to perform really well in a small sample is what people were hyped on. 

 

 

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I'm not gonna say that I believe he's done or that we should write him off for his career. I still believe he has talent and when you watch him run he's just such a specimen... but you can't understate just how awful he's been to start this season. He had one of the worst whiff%s in the sport last year at 15.0% and he's north of 28% now.

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1 hour ago, mevins31 said:

He's a fourth outfielder and pinch runner if all goes right. Not fantasy relevant. Sorry for those that bought into unwarranted hype. Scouts are not good sometimes 

It's not like he was minor league player of the year or anything.....

 

Some guys take awhile to get things figured out at the MLB level. Meanwhile his defense has been outstanding so far. That'll keep him from being sent down anytime soon. Hopefully he starts puting up better AB's. 

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They are batting him 3rd, and twins are 4-0 considering how awful he has been.... lol maybe thats the key to success, other team sees ur #3 hitter being worst player at the park and get overconfident.

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2 hours ago, gopherman23 said:

It's not like he was minor league player of the year or anything.....

 

Some guys take awhile to get things figured out at the MLB level. Meanwhile his defense has been outstanding so far. That'll keep him from being sent down anytime soon. Hopefully he starts puting up better AB's. 

 

So was jay Bruce and people say he's a bad baseball player.

 

buxton doesn't hit 1/25th as much as Bruce has or can. One of the worst hitters I've ever seen 

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With his athleticism, he just has to put the bat on the ball. I want to say that he's just an athlete and not a ball player but then he'll literally just get his bat on the ball and run to 1st 200 times a year and hit .300. 

 

But I just don't see a natural feel to hit. 

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I wouldn't drop him. Law of averages suggest he should least pull his BA average close to 0.250 at some point, which means there will be some multi-hit games. As weird as it sounds, I would wait for those games to occur before dropping him or attempt to sell him high. Cause I guarantee he'll get hot for a game or two and you want to at least get those stats before you let go of him.

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5 hours ago, 89Topps said:

Is sign up for BJ Upton in a second.  

 

He's BJ Upton, if BJ Upton was a blind man. 

 

His ABs have been offensive. He's not just missing at an insane rate - he's missing by three feet. 

Edited by Rainyy
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3 hours ago, mevins31 said:

 

So was jay Bruce and people say he's a bad baseball player.

 

buxton doesn't hit 1/25th as much as Bruce has or can. One of the worst hitters I've ever seen 

Jay Bruce was a candidate to be sent down?

 

Buxton shouldn't be hitting 3rd but the lineup as presently constructed seems to be scoring runs, the team has won 4 straight, and the OF defense has been fantastic. Buxton had at least three plays where potentially had a game saving catch and Kepler one in last nights game.

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8 hours ago, WaKe21334 said:

I just don't see how he is rosterable. I know it is a small sample size, but the sample size of him hitting on this level is extremely small when comparing to the sample size of him being a terrible hitter.

Fantasy wise, I agree.

 

In real life, he is playing really well on defense. Hughes would have lost big last night if not for the Twins whole outfield. They ran everything hit hard down except one double that went over Buxton's head by Garcia

 

The Twins would not have won the game without Buxton in center. He made really good on the run  catches  in the first inning alone. The Sox were hammering Hughes in the first inning and Buxton ran two of the outs down. The second one had runners  on to for sure save runs being scored.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v1261786683/must-c-catches-buxton-makes-two-athletic-catches/?query=Buxton

 

It doesn't help in fantasy.  But saving runs is helping  the team. So I think he will continue to play even though he looks lost at the plate.

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9 hours ago, mthdmn said:

He is the reincarnation of Desmond Jennings/BJ Upton.

I would rather have Jennings

Three year average

 

Player AB R H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB KO SB CS BA OBP SLG FPTS
Byron Buxton CF | MIN 214 30 47 24 13 4 6 22 14 81 6 2 0.2196 0.2716 0.4019 533.00
Desmond Jennings LF | CIN 259 32 61 41 13 1 6 21 25 61 7 3 0.2355 0.3090 0.3629 497.00
Edited by motown magic
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38 minutes ago, motown magic said:

I would rather have Jennings

Three year average

 

Player AB R H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB KO SB CS BA OBP SLG FPTS
Byron Buxton CF | MIN 214 30 47 24 13 4 6 22 14 81 6 2 0.2196 0.2716 0.4019 533.00
Desmond Jennings LF | CIN 259 32 61 41 13 1 6 21 25 61 7 3 0.2355 0.3090 0.3629 497.00

To be fair, Desmond Jennings was still in the minors when he was Buxton's age. Jennings was 24 when he finally came up to stay. Buxton is still just 23.

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