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Byron Buxton 2017 Outlook


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19 minutes ago, motown magic said:

His overall 35.6% K% was amazingly horrid, but his 15% SwStr% suggests that he should K less often in 2017.

 

Love this line, because it's somewhat true in some regards but kinda makes it sound like his Whiff% was better than the 6th worst in baseball, and as that's Whiff/Pitch and not Whiff/Swing, doesn't take into account that five of the six (leaving Chris Carter as the comparable) swing significantly more often than Buxton. 

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On ‎2‎/‎21‎/‎2017 at 10:24 AM, taobball said:

 

Well primarily with Buxton I just think that just because something clicks I don't know why all of a sudden everything clicks. It's definitely possible but I just see it coming in shades if it does come more or less and I'm not confident the BA will be high. I get that if we're using the high high high upside potential for Buxton, it is superior, but with so many flaws I just don't know that it looks brilliant immediately so much so that I'm regretting drafting any of those other guys. Like I just broke down Joc and I think he had a bit of a disguised breakout in 2016 in terms of making contact with pitches that has largely gone unnoticed with some incredibly encouraging signs IMO... I think Buxton could really develop and still in a 2016 league not be a "wow I just lost my league cause of Buxton type." I just think that percentile outcome of him really making me regret taking him over other fliers is just so miniscule it's hard to deal with. 

 

As far as Moose, Im' pretty much sold on this:

Oppo%

2011: 22.7%

2012: 22.1%

2013: 20.8%

2014: 21.4%

2015: 27.4%

2016: 30.8%

 

That to me is legitimate change and the kind of legitimate change that's going to have a profound effect on BABIP, and for a guy who makes a ton of contact I think that's going to have a similarly profound driving effect on Batting Average. 

 

And part of the power reason I agree is a little aggressive but the fact of the matter is that a ton of people saw a league wide power jump last year and whether it would've effected moose or not we don't know but if hte ball was juiced in any way Moose didn't get to play with the Juiced ball outside of a small sample. Not a fact, just a theory. What we do know is in that small sample he was smashing the ball in terms of HRs and Hard%. 

 

It's just hard to quantify comparable upsides because Buxton's speed gives him a fantasy edge over most people in that category but again I just don't see everything flowing together in one great storm of excellence. Would love to see it, but I can't foresee it. Ozuna I absolutely love as another guy who can hit for a high BA and high amount of power. Does Buxton's ability to steal make him more valuable if everything clicks in fantasy? I suppose I'd have to agree, but Ozuna could threaten a really good BA/HR/RBI option too and he's lightyears closer to achieving it. Domingo has gotten plenty of springer comps, and I think the upside there is a decent BA, a ton of power and chipped in speed. Buxton "ideal" would still get the edge because of Speed over Power, but I don't see how their not somehwat comparable as having considerable upside because Domingo could do something like .255/30/15 and it owuldn't surprise me that much.

 

Idk, it is less about the upside and more about the ability to achieve it, but I'm just not even confident that if the upside is eventually going to be achieved it's going to come at a whirlwind with BA, Power and Speed so explosively and so immediately that it's going to make the gap between his upside and these other guys at least the ones I mentioned above that substantial. 

 

 

I'm going to address the second bolded first, then I'll get to the first line.  Let's just pretend that I'm right in saying the first glimpse we got of the *real* Byron Buxton was in September of this year.  Let's assume that was the first exposure to MLB pitching where Buxton was actually able to do what he wanted to do -- FINALLY swing how he wanted to swing (seriously go read this about everything they've done to his swing), hit the ball however he wanted (instead of a GB to 2nd).  I don't think it's THAT great a leap of logic, given everything we know about how they tried to change his approach and modify his swing.

 

In September/October, Buxton had 101 ABs in 29 games.  He slashed .287/.357/.653 with 24 Rs, 9 HRs, 22 RBI and a SB.  He had a K/BB of 38/10 which by no means is good, but the walk rate of 8.9% is nearly identical to his MILB BB-rate (above AA) of 9.2%.  Yeah he was striking out too much, and no that performance level with that many Ks isn't sustainable... but that assumes no improvement.  Why can't he improve the K-rate?  It was NEVER an issue in the minors -- don't you guys think that his hit tool in the bigs is more likely to at least somewhat mirror his MILB track record as opposed to being COMPLETELY DIFFERENT?

 

As to the first bolded point... I maintain these ELITE prospects, especially the toolsy guys, grow by leaps.  Another former top overall prospect had 123 ABs in September in his first taste of the bigs, where he slashed .220/.281/.390, scored 20 Rs, 5 HRs, 16 RBI, and 4 SBs.  He posted a K/BB of 30/9.  Looking at that (and I'm obviously not going into nearly the same detail as to how he performed against individual pitches), other than the power and speed, there's not much in that K-rate or triple slash to make you think the following year he'd post a .326/.399/.564 line with 30 bombs and 49 SBs... unless of course, you took his MILB track record into account.  And that's what I feel like is being ignored with Buxton.  It's like what he's done in the minors doesn't even matter because of  his first 469 ABs in the bigs where the team COMPLETELY screwed with him. 

 

Buxton has a total of 485 ABs at AA or AAA, with a combined slash line of .303/.362/.524 line with 18 HRs and 29 SBs.  There is a REASON he was the number 1 or 2 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com for 3 straight years (Also, it's revisionist history to pretend that was solely due to his defense, which I've heard that argument by some talking heads lately). 

 

The last thing I'll say -- it doesn't ALL have to come together at once for him to be a profitable investment.  Baseball Forecaster projects him for .247/.304/.420 with 15 HRs and 24 SBs.  STEAMER has him at .243/.298/.410 with 15 HRs and 16 SBs.  Neither one of those will kill you for the price... and just what if it clicks?  What if he's 90% of what he showed in September (which would be .258/.321/.587 with plenty of power)?  I don't think the speed is in question (yeah he'll need to refine his base stealing prowess, but the absolute last thing I question with Buxton is speed. 

 

I'm not sure what else to say... I wouldn't take him over some of the guys you listed, but in most of my leagues the ADP doesn't really matter when you approach the triple digit picks.  Guys go draft who they want to draft, because they know everyone else is going to do the same and snipe them.  So yeah, I'd rather have Ozuna... I'd *probably* rather have Mazara unless I needed the speed.  I'd consider some of the other guys you laid out... but no chance am I just ignoring Buxton because of what's happened to date.

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This article, linked in the story I linked in my post above, is gold... complete with video of the swing changes.


 

Quote

 

With Buxton, the point of contention is the front foot. This isn’t new. The Twins have been teaching this for years. Our very own David Laurila spoke to past and present Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky, along with former Twins prospect Joe Benson, about hitting for Baseball America back in 2011. Benson had the following to say about the Twins’ hitting philosophy:

 

“Stay as quiet as possible at the plate, get your foot down early, and especially with [Brunansky], working on where I need to get to in order to get extension through the baseball.”

 

The idea behind teaching the front foot down early, as Parker puts it, is to “prevent swings and misses, allow hitters to see the ball better, and improve a hitter’s balance.” In other words, it’s a swing geared for contact, perhaps in Buxton’s case in an effort to allow him to put the ball in play and use his speed. Problem is, it can do so at the expense of rhythm and athleticism — “The swing gets the foot down. Putting the foot down to swing is a backwards line of thinking. No hitter has ever taken a swing, looked down, and said, ‘Oh, darn! I swung and my foot is still in the air!' — and to make matters worse, Buxton’s got baseball’s second-highest strikeout rate since his debut, so the intended contact isn’t showing up.

 

 

Quote

Buxton’s even more closed now, with his body almost perfectly aligned with the pitcher, and even more compact. If you’re a Twins fan, you’ve surely thought of Carlos Gomez while watching Buxton’s struggles. Gomez was a similarly toolsy center-field prospect — though one with an admittedly more robust frame — who struggled mightily early on in Minnesota. Gomez, too, broke into the big leagues with a quiet, front foot down early swing, and didn’t find success until implementing a leg kick in Milwaukee that allowed him to generate rhythm and power in his swing.

 

Quote

Especially given Buxton’s tools. There’s a reason he’s been a top-10 prospect four years running. In Parker’s words, “He’s got hand speed that most hitters can only achieve in their dreams. Watching him run and throw there’s obviously an ability to make his body accelerate in a snap, but that ability has yet to show up in his swing.”

 

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At work so no real time for a detail oriented reply but I get what you're saying about Buxton and maybe that's how it happens but the percentile is just too small for me. I believe if he breaks out it's far more likely to be some strong improvements that make next year exciting than to be an epic storm. But I do understand your point. 

 

My major point is that people underrate or typically I don't believe understand how just awful Buxton has been. I see comments about this or that all the time like your mentjoning of his K/BB that make him appear better when all the underlying numbers are spectacularly horrible. Mainly his contact rate on anything that moves. It's like I said above with Motown said don't shoot the messenger.. the writer of that article is completely not quantifying his Whiff% and is implying that Buxtons K% was somewhat luck driven or that his Whiff% suggests it should be considerably better when the only comparable in terms of Whiff and Swing% is Chris Carter and his whiff per swing rates clearly suggest he very much earned those Ks. So I think that's my gap between the view of Buxton at large and what I believe actually happened. The power is optimistic. Nothing else in September was. Nothing. I think a lot of people are trying to sell improvements as being in an MLB sample that aren't there. That's my problem.

 

and being a top prospect is very important. But again, top prospects aren't always successes. There are Deleon Young and Brandon's woods and they all had Buxtons same issues.

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

At work so no real time for a detail oriented reply but I get what you're saying about Buxton and maybe that's how it happens but the percentile is just too small for me. I believe if he breaks out it's far more likely to be some strong improvements that make next year exciting than to be an epic storm. But I do understand your point. 

 

My major point is that people underrate or typically I don't believe understand how just awful Buxton has been. I see comments about this or that all the time like your mentjoning of his K/BB that make him appear better when all the underlying numbers are spectacularly horrible. Mainly his contact rate on anything that moves. It's like I said above with Motown said don't shoot the messenger.. the writer of that article is completely not quantifying his Whiff% and is implying that Buxtons K% was somewhat luck driven or that his Whiff% suggests it should be considerably better when the only comparable in terms of Whiff and Swing% is Chris Carter and his whiff per swing rates clearly suggest he very much earned those Ks. So I think that's my gap between the view of Buxton at large and what I believe actually happened. The power is optimistic. Nothing else in September was. Nothing. I think a lot of people are trying to sell improvements as being in an MLB sample that aren't there. That's my problem.

 

Yeah - and I've made my case... I don't think we need to keep going back and forth.  It's just the complete F'ing with his natural swing and what made him so successful makes me want to throw out EVERYTHING prior to September.  And I totally get what you're saying... even the underlying metrics of that aren't as positive as the overall package may seem. 

 

I just think digging that deep, with a guy with this many tools and this much natural ability... maybe it's missing the forest for the trees.  My contention is that he can improve... and do so in very short order once they just let him play. 

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I don't disagree about digging deep or talent I just see people forecasting improvements USING data like this incorrectly in my opinion. That is the point of my contention. If the belief is natural ability will show up because it's been there the whole time and that it's projected based on athletic ability than that's completely fine. I don't think that there's a data driven argument that makes Buxton a likely candidate for success and that's my main point. And I think many are trying to manipulate data to sell him and those people are my points of contention. 

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On 2/21/2017 at 5:57 PM, motown magic said:

Just read this from RotoBaller

Its champ or chump

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) ADP: 190

Buxton's .225/.284/.430 line with 10 homers and steals last year looks bad, but becomes even worse when you consider he hit .287/.357/.653 with nine homers in September. What the heck was he doing the rest of the year? While many see the hot September as a reason to invest in 2017, I usually discount the month where every team calls up 100 guys from Triple-A because they can. His 33.6% K% in September also suggests that he was still overmatched despite the positive results.

His overall 35.6% K% was amazingly horrid, but his 15% SwStr% suggests that he should K less often in 2017. Of course, a SwStr% that high still suggests that he is going to strikeout way too often for fantasy purposes this year. At age 23, Buxton still has plenty of time to figure it out. Owners in redraft leagues cannot afford the same patience, however.

His elite prospect pedigree is also unsupported by his minor league history. He stole 57 bases (20 CS) in 2013, but otherwise has a career best of 24 bags (five CS) in any single season. He has also had durability concerns in recent years, as 2013 was the last and only time he managed to compile 600 PAs. When a guy is just trying to stay on the field, SB numbers often decline as every attempt is an injury risk.

Last season's 21 homers combined between the majors and Triple-A were also a professional best, so elite power is not guaranteed either. He does have some nice indicators in this regard, as his 43.3% FB% was great. He also pulled 32.4% of his flies, setting himself up for great HR/FB rates in the future. Still, it is quite possible that Buxton fails to capitalize on this potential in 2017. Even if he does, his counting stats will not be great on what is quite possibly the worst team in the majors. Buxton is a great keeper asset, but redraft owners may want to find their upside elsewhere.

Verdict: Chump

 

So many things I disagree with here on just many different levels.  First off "strike out too often for fantasy purposes"?  Most leagues don't even account for strikeouts.  So I think what he was saying is he's striking out at a level that I think will hinder him from being fantasy relevant?  KB strikes out too much to be a first round pick too right?  That was said in so many mainstream circles last year going into the draft.  

 

Yes September has a lot of call up guys.  But it's still better competition than AAA, it is the big leagues after all.  So sure discount it some, but it was a monster September and it was the one month where he was finally playing every day.  That's a big part of finding a rhythm especially for a guy who is going to K as much as Buxton.  He needs more consistent opportunity so that he can do the things he does well.  Plenty of good big league hitters had bad Septembers.  So while Buxton's September should be taken with a grain of salt sure, it shouldn't be entirely discounted. 

 

Why does this read as if his 21 home runs last year is more of a fluke than it is a development?  A guy turns 22 and starts developing more power than he had when he was 18, 19, 20, and 21?  Is he seriously trying to act like that isn't something that is extremely common among prospects?  Come on now, scouts have always pegged Buxton as a 20+ HR guy well before his numbers in the minors stated it.  No one ever has projected Buxton to be an elite power hitter and let's be real 21 HRs is far from elite.  It's honestly barely even fantasy relevant these days unless it comes with 25+ SBs or elite run production / batting average.

 

Minnesota may be a developing team but even last year their offense was an average offense despite being one of the youngest lineups out there (pitching was a far bigger problem for them).  That lineup should continue to develop in that regard.  So I don't see how that is a negative impact on Buxton?  Besides one of the best pitchers in all of baseball was traded out of the division and Quintana probably follows suit soon as well.  Hell the entire White Sox rotation could be all guys Buxton who were AAA the same time as Buxton.  Outside of Cleveland (lots of extra post season innings on those arms as well) every other team's rotation projects to be average at best in the American League Central.  The White Sox could be a disaster.  Sure young and talented but not sure if they are ready to be big league productive.  Rodon is good but he's not #1 / #2 good just yet and that's what we are looking at right now.

 

Buxton's SB% if it hasn't been elite thus far it's a slight tick below.  Last year 17 for 19 that's 89.5%.  With most of his PAs at the big league level where his OBP was only .287 and he was hitting an extra base hit over 10% of his PAs.  Over his extremely accelerated minor league career it's been 78.9%.  So all things considered that's better than respectable.  His minor league career SBs prorated over a 600 PA season come out to 42 SBs.  So again a tick below the elite tier of 50-60 SB guys there.  Granted if he's a leadoff hitter we are talking closer to 700 PAs than 600 over the course of a full season.

 

Now Buxton has had injury history in the past throughout the minor leagues.  Last year I personally off the top of my head don't remember him being injured.  So I think the "lack of 600 PAs" was more of the fact that this kid was being bounced back and fourth between AAA and the MLB using every ounce of his talent to hold his head above water at the big league level.  So with him struggling he obviously was not playing every day and hitting in the 9 hole. 

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I don't see Buxton as over-aggressive type like Baez/Odor.. His Swing rate was pretty average and O-Swing was kinda of expected of a 22 year old. Not good..but not awful either.  I can see some improvements in selection and walk rates as he continues to acclimate to MLB pitching and make tweaks and improvement. (Something I don't ever seeing happening with Baez/Odor despite also being young)  Make no note of his MILB walk rates too.

 

Probably the most imporant thing for a young player is the willingness to improve and actually show it... Which Buxton showed a glimpse of..  Buxton has yet to show anyone that he can hit for a high BA though.. Its a complete leap of faith to assume that is coming this year given the K% and batted balls.. However the Power/Speed could both be sexy this year.

 

If we are being realistic on his ceiling for 2017.. He could end up somewhere between or around Melvin Upton's 2016 season(.238, 20HR, 27SB, 125 R/RBI) and his 2012 season (.246, 28HR, 31 SB, 157 R/RBI)

 

Not sure if ya'll think calling a Melvin Upton "good year" as good or bad...but that is how I see it given the current skill sets.. (Upton was a top end toolsy prospect himself after all)

Edited by Slatykamora
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13 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

I don't see Buxton as over-aggressive type like Baez/Odor.. His Swing rate was pretty average and O-Swing was kinda of expected of a 22 year old. Not good..but not awful either.  I can see some improvements in selection and walk rates as he continues to acclimate to MLB pitching and make tweaks and improvement. (Something I don't ever seeing happening with Baez/Odor despite also being young)  Make no note of his MILB walk rates too.

 

Probably the most imporant thing for a young player is the willingness to improve and actually show it... Which Buxton showed a glimpse of..  Buxton has yet to show anyone that he can hit for a high BA though.. Its a complete leap of faith to assume that is coming this year given the K% and batted balls.. However the Power/Speed could both be sexy this year.

 

If we are being realistic on his ceiling for 2016.. He could end up somewhere between or around Melvin Upton's 2016 season(.238, 20HR, 27SB, 125 R/RBI) and his 2012 season (.246, 28HR, 31 SB, 157 R/RBI)

 

Not sure if ya'll think calling a Melvin Upton "good year" as good or bad...but that is how I see it given the current skill sets.. (Upton was a top end toolsy prospect himself after all)

It's not the plate discipline that bothers me with Buxton as much as the contact rates. He can't make contact with any pitch type on a consistent basis.

That being said, he's worth a shot just because his HR/SB upside is so huge. I'd he's available in lotto ticket range, go for it. But I wouldn't spend anything above that

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Last time I'm going to say it... there are three key points here:

1) The Minnesota Twins F'd with his swing -- I posted two articles outlining everything they messed with.  Beyond just the mechanical tweaks, they messed with his approach as well.  I believe you let a kid fail before you go messing with what got him there (like what the Cubs did with Baez).  Buxton was finally let go in September to hit how he wanted to hit and swing how he wanted to swing.

 

2) He's 22 years old.  He has 469 ABs in the big leagues, only ~130ish with *his* swing.  Hand in hand with this, he's yet to cumulatively have a full season's worth of ABs in the minors above AA -- to suggest he's not still developing (and by leaps and bounds IMO) is ludicrous.

 

3) K-rate, hit tool, batting eye, contact ability -- none of this was considered to be a major problem in the minors.  I know it's not completely crazy to just have a guy completely suck at the majors after crushing the minors, but there are usually signs for WHY he sucks in the majors.  The biggest detriment I've heard trumpeted against Buxton is contact rates (and admittedly they could sink him).  But I'm basically looking at this as 130 ABs against MLB pitching with his normal swing and approach -- that he's comfortable with, playing with his instincts, and not CONSTANTLY thinking.  Again -- never a problem in the minors.  Never mentioned in his scouting reports.  Has it been a problem to date?  Yes.  Was it a problem in September?  Yes, but at least some goodies came along with it.  Will it improve?  I don't see why not given the track record.

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13 minutes ago, 19cbb said:

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/524270/Buxton-being-considered-for-leadoff-spot

 

Buxton being considered for leadoff spot

 

Twins manager Paul Molitor indicated Monday that Byron Buxton could hit his way into the leadoff spot this spring.

For Kepler's sake I hope this doesn't end up being true lol

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4 minutes ago, Hollywood42 said:

 

As a Twins fan, I don't see Kepler batting lead anyways

No he won't. I meant it as in he will be hitting in front of Kepler, and rarely on base, so less rbi opps lol.

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3 minutes ago, tywalson said:

No he won't. I meant it as in he will be hitting in front of Kepler, and rarely on base, so less rbi opps lol.

 

Ah, I see. Honestly don't think it would have an impact on Kepler anyways though. Buxton will likely either be leadoff or in the 9th slot, and Kepler seems like a 5-6 hitter, so there's some space between them regardless

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On 12/10/2016 at 1:49 PM, taobball said:

 

Considering that, even if you consider September indicative of future value, he had a 33.6% K rate... not great. 

 

Bump it down to 31%. Just to be generous. And a generous BB% improvement to 8.5%, compared to a career 6.2%, and 6.9% seasonal high. His Career BABIP is .320. I'll give him a .340. I'll even give him 15 homers. So all of these numbers I would consider on the high edge of hte projections:

 

That's a .253/.316/.430 for a .746 OPS, 15 HRs, maybe 30 SBs. And I'd consider that a very favorable projection based on what I've seen from Buxton.

 

If I'm being more honest, for my own rankings I'm probably giving him a 32.5%, 7.5%, .325, and let's just say 14 HRs:

 

That's a .236/.294/.413 for a .707 OPS, 14 HRs, and again maybe 30 SBs.

 

And to me, that line still suggests improvement. Buxton's got a ton of upside but you don't know that if you've just watched him play instead of read guides. He's never looked like a talented ball player, he's constantly over matched, they throw low and he can't hit it, and they throw it lower and he chases it anyway. 

 

To the discussion of a .350 OBP, the walk rate isn't an issue there, he has to hit for a BA as well, not just walk.  

 

Sadlly, those numbers look really Melvin Upton'ish to me.

 

I think Buxton is worth a late, late flier to see if he can be more than that.  But, if that's what he truly ends up being, then pass.

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

Sadlly, those numbers look really Melvin Upton'ish to me.

 

I think Buxton is worth a late, late flier to see if he can be more than that.  But, if that's what he truly ends up being, then pass.

 

If Buxton can reel off Melvin "BJ" Upton 2007-2012 numbers I'll be all over that

 

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3 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

 

If Buxton can reel off Melvin "BJ" Upton 2007-2012 numbers I'll be all over that

 

 

Yeah, people forget how awesome Upton was. That 2008 season he had labrum surgery.

 

2007 - His age 22 season, 24hrs and 22sbs.

2008 - His age 23 season, 9hrs and 44 sbs. (Coming off the labrum yr 1) - Buxton's age this year

2009 - His age 24 season, 11hrs and 42 sbs. (Coming off the labrum yr 2)

2010 - His age 25 season, 18hrs and 42 sbs. (Looks like he's finally over the surgery).

 

...I don't play in an average only leagues.

 

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Eric Longenhagen (FanGraphs lead prospect writer) was on The Sleeper and the Bust podcast this week. He said that scouts had basically explained the Buxton situation as a dude who was such a freak athlete with such loud tools that the package of athleticism and tools allowed him to dominate all the way until he hit the majors without any refinement of anything. That certainly speaks to the ceiling here. Longenhagen actually invoked Trout's name when discussing the package of tools. 

 

He then said basically what I've been arguing on Buxton's behalf -- that the Twins tried to tweak and change what Buxton did almost the entire time he was in the majors, until September when they finally just let him play. 

 

Obviously his value is higher in dynasty and keeper formats, and every draft is different even in redraft leagues, but he's going to be very tempting to me once we reach the double digit picks. 

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On 2/22/2017 at 10:10 PM, taobball said:

I don't disagree about digging deep or talent I just see people forecasting improvements USING data like this incorrectly in my opinion. That is the point of my contention. If the belief is natural ability will show up because it's been there the whole time and that it's projected based on athletic ability than that's completely fine. I don't think that there's a data driven argument that makes Buxton a likely candidate for success and that's my main point. And I think many are trying to manipulate data to sell him and those people are my points of contention. 

Unless I missed it, you didn't really address the idea that they screwed with his swing for so long and finally let him just play.  Do you not think that's important?  Do you not believe it?  Just curious your thoughts on it, respect what ya have to say.  

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Just now, phoenixbases said:

Unless I missed it, you didn't really address the idea that they screwed with his swing for so long and finally let him just play.  Do you not think that's important?  Do you not believe it?  Just curious your thoughts on it, respect what ya have to say.  

 

Oh no I absolutely believed that the twins have had a major part in Buxton's struggles, but that doens't really change what he is now to me. Maybe the change in swing does cause him to make more contact but we have literally no evidence that that is going to be the case. He did not make better contact at any point of 2016, so it's just not something I just think is going to snap back and all of a sudden his SwStr and Contact%'s look more like Altuve than Chris Carter. I do think its an encouraging thing, but like I said, if you believe that Buxton is just uber talented and he'll figure it out, then I'm fine with that assessment, I just dont' think we have any empirical data that says Buxton isn't a .225 Hitter who Ks aroudn 32+% of the time. I'm not ruling out improvement, it's just with the litany of guys I think that are going later than Buxton that possess strong upside as well, I'm not really rushing to get Buxton, especially at his current ADP. I don't really see Buxton hitting for BA this year even if he turns a corner, I think it'll come with like others were saying something closer to Melvin Upton for at least a year and to me that's upside I can get from different places without needing to pay the brand name for Buxton. I just don't personally see him hitting above .260 this year at an absolute best case scenario. Not that it can't happen, but I just can't do it personally. 

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