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Byron Buxton 2017 Outlook


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On 3/25/2017 at 4:41 PM, murraygd13 said:

Cautiously optimistic....just make sure to get some high batting average guys in case Buxton ends up hitting .210.  Hit .210 is going to hurt since he's unlikely to walk a bunch so he will likely have a ton of at bats.

Are people really drafting him to be a starter on their fantasy team??

I took him in one keeper league but am definitely not counting on him to be in my lineup every day. If he figures things out, great, If he hits .210, ADIOS BYRON!

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2 hours ago, cs3 said:

Are people really drafting him to be a starter on their fantasy team??

I took him in one keeper league but am definitely not counting on him to be in my lineup every day. If he figures things out, great, If he hits .210, ADIOS BYRON!

 

He could hit .210 but all signs point to Jim figuring it out 

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I'm really hoping this kid rakes one day so we can tag the "Lord Byron" nickname on him and watch every writer play with Byron's poetry in their headlines and articles. I mean this Byron quote just screams "Twins fan." 

 

“The great object of life is sensation- to feel that we exist, even though in pain.” 

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12 hours ago, cs3 said:

Are people really drafting him to be a starter on their fantasy team??

I took him in one keeper league but am definitely not counting on him to be in my lineup every day. If he figures things out, great, If he hits .210, ADIOS BYRON!

 

Obviously it depends on your league. I'm in a 14 team league with very deep rosters -- Buxton is a no-brainer "starter" in that kind of league. 

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13 hours ago, cs3 said:

Are people really drafting him to be a starter on their fantasy team??

I took him in one keeper league but am definitely not counting on him to be in my lineup every day. If he figures things out, great, If he hits .210, ADIOS BYRON!

 

Yep, although in my case he was a minor league keeper whom I'm promoting.  Also, my league has 5 OFs and let's not forget SBs could be scarce this year, so Buxton should help in that regard.

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I decided to take a chance on this guy's heart and desire to be great.  Made a huge predraft trade for him in ESPN not below league.  Let's see if he can hang in there against those low and away off speeders . . .

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12 hours ago, lipitorkid said:

I'm really hoping this kid rakes one day so we can tag the "Lord Byron" nickname on him and watch every writer play with Byron's poetry in their headlines and articles. I mean this Byron quote just screams "Twins fan." 

 

“The great object of life is sensation- to feel that we exist, even though in pain.” 

Where do anticipate drafting "Lord Byron"?  ;)

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6 hours ago, DWright5 said:

 

Yep, although in my case he was a minor league keeper whom I'm promoting.  Also, my league has 5 OFs and let's not forget SBs could be scarce this year, so Buxton should help in that regard.

I can def get behind starting him in 5OF leagues. In 3OF leagues I would be pretty nervous. Hitting 3rd should be give his value a nice boost. I hope he hits enough early on to stick in that spot.

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8 hours ago, cs3 said:

I can def get behind starting him in 5OF leagues. In 3OF leagues I would be pretty nervous. Hitting 3rd should be give his value a nice boost. I hope he hits enough early on to stick in that spot.

 

AL-only league...OF in the AL is poor this year so he's definately a starter.

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Really liked these stats from ESPN's article on Buxton today:

 

Buxton vs. Upper-Half Pitches

 

Before demotion: .150 avg, .213 OBP, .300 slg, a 61% swing rate with a 19% miss rate at balls in the zone, 1 HR. 

 

After demotion: .362 avg, .434 OBP, .766 slg, a 70% swing rate with a 9% miss rate at balls in the zone, 5 HRs.

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Gentlemen -- to the undoubted shock of many of you, given several of my posts earlier in this thread, I have finished all my drafts for the year, and I own no shares of Byron Buxton.  

 

It breaks my heart, and I've tried to work out some trades without any luck.  Best of luck to you all.  I'm still trying to acquire somewhere, anywhere, just so I can enjoy this roller coaster, but ... alas.

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34 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Gentlemen -- to the undoubted shock of many of you, given several of my posts earlier in this thread, I have finished all my drafts for the year, and I own no shares of Byron Buxton.  

 

It breaks my heart, and I've tried to work out some trades without any luck.  Best of luck to you all.  I'm still trying to acquire somewhere, anywhere, just so I can enjoy this roller coaster, but ... alas.

 

 

You just need more teams.

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58 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Gentlemen -- to the undoubted shock of many of you, given several of my posts earlier in this thread, I have finished all my drafts for the year, and I own no shares of Byron Buxton.  

 

It breaks my heart, and I've tried to work out some trades without any luck.  Best of luck to you all.  I'm still trying to acquire somewhere, anywhere, just so I can enjoy this roller coaster, but ... alas.

get Him Before ItS Too late! 

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7 minutes ago, HaloFanatic17 said:

Did he look completely lost at the plate? It's hard to judge players the first several games but just curious how he at least looked. I saw that he was fouling several pitches off in his at bats thru MLB at bat

Didn't see the game but the stat line was horrendous 

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1 hour ago, HaloFanatic17 said:

Did he look completely lost at the plate? It's hard to judge players the first several games but just curious how he at least looked. I saw that he was fouling several pitches off in his at bats thru MLB at bat

 

Completely lost isn't the right word. Unsound mechanically, at least based on commentary? For sure. Unable to make decent contact. Also check. But isn't necessarily "looking lost."

 

I mean you're right to some extent that Byron fouled off a good number of pitches but he swung through a good number too. I think the finished line for Buxton in 2016 was a 15% Whiff% and a 67.9% Contact%, which I believe when I looked earlier were comparable to just Chris Carter.

 

Well Buxton had 7 Whiffs in 21 Pitches by my estimate (33% Whiff) and 16 Swings (56.25%). Now obviously I'm not insinuating anything extrapolatable in those numbers-- I'm just saying that's what actually happened. 

 

Breaking that down, in his month of September he had a particular issue versus Change-ups. By my count here were his chronological results v. Change-Ups today:

 

Whiff

Whiff (1st K)

Whiff

Whiff

Foul

Called Strike

Whiff (2nd K)

Pop-Up (Out)

 

So that's a massively high Whiff rate and whiff/swing%. As a reminder, his Whiff/Swing% in that Sept./Oct. on change-ups was 55%. So even in this small sample, if he had had one fewer whiff, he'd be really just about where he was for the entire last month. 

 

He improved on pitches up in the zone and fastballs... seems to me like he's just looking high and trying to drive it out. All I've been seeing pitchers do is drop the ball under his hands.

 

--

 

Here's another thing to; because I've been so negative on Buxton I've spent a ton of time watching him play. I didn't quite accomplish my goal of seeing all of his Sept. PAs but I got through about half of them and here's a slash that I think very few people realize even as impressive as his Sept. was, and was one that I didn't know at all until I watched him play:

 

2016 Sept./Oct.: .287/.357/.653

 

First Series of Sept. (CWS): .563/.563/1.313, 0 BBs, 1 K (6.3%)

^^Also first series post recall

 

Sept. 4th - End of Season: .235/.323/.529, 10 BBs, 37 Ks (38.1%)

 

Now don't get me remotely long, the latter line is still very strong and represents a very very lovely outcome if Buxton were to repeat, but I think it does kinda show like, in a sample of that size he loses 52 points of BA, 35 points of OBP, and 124 points of SLG. 
 

What's even a bit stranger is he bookended that month with appearances v. CWS. Here is that amazing split:

 

Sept./Oct. (CWS 7 Games): .462/.517/1.192, 17.2% K%

 

Sept./Oct. (Minus CWS): .227/.301/.467, 39.3% K%

 

Don't know if that means anything. I'm HOPING it doesn't represent that the laziness of one organization to not care in september inflated his numbers, but it is very interesting to me that when you take out the Sox his numbers really do fall completely apart. 

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