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Byron Buxton 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Completely lost isn't the right word. Unsound mechanically, at least based on commentary? For sure. Unable to make decent contact. Also check. But isn't necessarily "looking lost."

 

I mean you're right to some extent that Byron fouled off a good number of pitches but he swung through a good number too. I think the finished line for Buxton in 2016 was a 15% Whiff% and a 67.9% Contact%, which I believe when I looked earlier were comparable to just Chris Carter.

 

Well Buxton had 7 Whiffs in 21 Pitches by my estimate (33% Whiff) and 16 Swings (56.25%). Now obviously I'm not insinuating anything extrapolatable in those numbers-- I'm just saying that's what actually happened. 

 

Breaking that down, in his month of September he had a particular issue versus Change-ups. By my count here were his chronological results v. Change-Ups today:

 

Whiff

Whiff (1st K)

Whiff

Whiff

Foul

Called Strike

Whiff (2nd K)

Pop-Up (Out)

 

So that's a massively high Whiff rate and whiff/swing%. As a reminder, his Whiff/Swing% in that Sept./Oct. on change-ups was 55%. So even in this small sample, if he had had one fewer whiff, he'd be really just about where he was for the entire last month. 

 

He improved on pitches up in the zone and fastballs... seems to me like he's just looking high and trying to drive it out. All I've been seeing pitchers do is drop the ball under his hands.

 

--

 

Here's another thing to; because I've been so negative on Buxton I've spent a ton of time watching him play. I didn't quite accomplish my goal of seeing all of his Sept. PAs but I got through about half of them and here's a slash that I think very few people realize even as impressive as his Sept. was, and was one that I didn't know at all until I watched him play:

 

2016 Sept./Oct.: .287/.357/.653

 

First Series of Sept. (CWS): .563/.563/1.313, 0 BBs, 1 K (6.3%)

^^Also first series post recall

 

Sept. 4th - End of Season: .235/.323/.529, 10 BBs, 37 Ks (38.1%)

 

Now don't get me remotely long, the latter line is still very strong and represents a very very lovely outcome if Buxton were to repeat, but I think it does kinda show like, in a sample of that size he loses 52 points of BA, 35 points of OBP, and 124 points of SLG. 
 

What's even a bit stranger is he bookended that month with appearances v. CWS. Here is that amazing split:

 

Sept./Oct. (CWS 7 Games): .462/.517/1.192, 17.2% K%

 

Sept./Oct. (Minus CWS): .227/.301/.467, 39.3% K%

 

Don't know if that means anything. I'm HOPING it doesn't represent that the laziness of one organization to not care in september inflated his numbers, but it is very interesting to me that when you take out the Sox his numbers really do fall completely apart. 

Great research. Thank you for that post. 

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1 hour ago, mjk356 said:

I'm really surprised they put him in the 3 spot right away.  Seems very premature for a player who had a good September that was preceded by months of Brandon Wood-level suckage.

Yeah, that was odd. I think best case scenario for him would be hitting at the bottom of the order in low pressure situations until he figures it out. It worked really well for a guy with a similar skill set (Jackie Bradley), and once he starts gaining confidence, THEN move him up.

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I think the logic with hitting him 3rd is there will likely be runners on base when he comes up and protection behind him.  Both make hitting a little easier.

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1 minute ago, kwelch said:

This would be pretty funny if we weren't talking about Buxton.

The talent is very real (obviously) and I'm hoping his Spring/September weren't just flukes. They clearly have confidence in him slotting him in at the 3 spot, but you're right, his god awful stretches aren't far behind us. I just think he has way too much talent and upside to immediately drop after a single game. If he keeps this up for a week or two though, definitely time to worry

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Maybe not in exact results but Wood had plenty of raw power he could just never make the contact at the major league level. I think the way in which their failing is comparable enough to make the comparison just.

doesnt even have a full season of ab's under his belt and is just 23

going to take a little more

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Just now, colepenhagen said:

doesnt even have a full season of ab's under his belt and is just 23

going to take a little more

 

To make it definitive sure, but I think in the way it was brought up it was just. That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying he's done. I'm just saying he really does look like a lot of these poor, former elite prospects like Brandon Wood when he's out there. 

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box scores don't look good early...he's my #6 OF,maybe even 7...will have abit more patience but starting to look a lot like his start in 2016...I hear chatter that he is just not consistent while in the box, ie. toe tap, high leg kick, at different times etc., timing is a crucial part of hitting.

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2 minutes ago, motown magic said:

9 spot? Does he have options left? This is exactly why I cashed in last year after two failed attempts to own him

 

He's played in a tad under two games this year.  Let's see how things are going with Mr. Buxton at the end of April before we bury his casket.

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16 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

He's played in a tad under two games this year.  Let's see how things are going with Mr. Buxton at the end of April before we bury his casket.

 

I'd agree with you if I wasn't watching his at bats. This is the first year since 2014 I did not draft him, but wanted to follow. Wow, he looks as lost as he did in 2015. Zero pitch recognition.

 

 He's the guy who may put it together in about 3 years or so when nobody remembers his promise. 

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20 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

I need more than 8 at bats to come to the conclusion that he has regressed back to what he was in 2015. 

 

It's too early to panic

 

Who is saying to panic? If you drafted Buxton as someone other than a .235/.240 hitter with 20 bombs and 20 steals and a 30% k-rate driving a poor obp than you weren't paying attention to his career trajectory. If you drafted him as that, then I'm sure most would agree he is likely to still be there. It's the great start we'd have to say "it's just a small sample, let's see" about.  As it is, he started off as exactly what we all should have expected him to be; what he was in 2015 and what he was in 2016.  He just didn't sprinkle in the day where he runs into two homers and steals a base yet but that will come here and there too

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You guys are holding onto his prospect hype.  His swing was never going to translate to the majors, and his command of the zone has always been poor against top level pitching.

 

The dude has tools...but he's a poor man's jason heyward.  have fun with him.

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