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Andrelton Simmons 2017 Outlook


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I can't shake the feeling that Simmons is going to end up being productive in 2017.

 

His 7.9% K rate last year is elite...and was a career low. He stole 10 bags vs. only 1 CS.

 

He only hit 4 HR, but has flirted with some power in the past, with 17 in 2013. I'm sure his raw power is not the issue, he's super athletic and obviously one of the best defenders in the game.

 

Bad new, of course, is that the Angels aren't a juggernaut offensively so R and RBI totals probably won't be good.

 

Very quietly, Simmons hit well to end the year, with 102 in the second half. Adam Jones, for reference had a 96 wRC+ last year.

 

He made changes to his swing.

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-sn-angels-report-20160723-snap-story.html

 

wRC+ by month --

 

Season Monthly BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
2016 Mar/Apr 2.2 % 5.4 % 0.40 .253 .269 .330 .598 .077 .259 6 -4.5 .260 63
2016 May 8.0 % 4.0 % 2.00 .087 .160 .087 .247 .000 .091 -1 -4.0 .126 -30
2016 Jun 5.7 % 11.3 % 0.50 .245 .283 .327 .610 .082 .273 4 -2.3 .265 66
2016 Jul 4.8 % 10.5 % 0.45 .375 .404 .479 .883 .104 .414 18 5.3 .379 144
2016 Aug 6.6 % 8.5 % 0.78 .278 .330 .289 .619 .010 .303 9 -3.4 .280 76
2016 Sept/Oct 8.9 % 5.9 % 1.50 .283 .347 .457 .803 .174 .277 14 2.3 .346 122
2016 1st Half 4.2 % 7.5 % 0.56 .269 .296 .353 .649 .085 .283 19 -6.6 .281 77
2016 2nd Half 7.1 % 8.2 % 0.86 .291 .346 .377 .722 .085 .309 32 0.0 .318

102

 

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Idk man. You know, when your article starts mentioning a .676 OPS and how it's a career high, you kinda understand why Andrelton is known as a defense only player. 

 

He has a career BABIP of .274 despite a batted ball profile, or atleast a GB:FB ratio, that should actually suggest it should be higher. His ISO in the first and second half were both .085. The biggest driving force for his 102 wRC+ to me seems to be the improved BB%. 

 

In terms of his increased BABIP / BA in the second half, his Hard% increased, but from 22.8% to 23.9%, so I dont' think that's a positive really, as 23.9% is still significantly below league average. 

 

The biggest driver of his BABIP seems to be that he increased his GB% all the way up to 57+% in the second half, which would be good if he were like Dee Gordon, but he's not. 

 

The one year he hit for power he was a completely different hitter. His GB:FB ratio that year was almost 1:1, with a 39.1% FB%. His career average is now under 30% and last year he was at 25.6%, and again, his second half saw a GB% spike, where his FB% was actually down at 24.6%. So unless he makes another significant adjustment, I just don't see even double digit homers as a likely outcome. He did have a HR/FB% "spike" in the second half ,but to 5.5%. He hasn't had an over 5% HR/FB% in any individual season since 2013. 

 

I think the adjustment is likely to improve his average. I don't think it helps him in homers. And I think the speed is good, but I don't think 20s in there, and I have serious reservations about 15. 

 

Without doing any hardcore math I'd project something like .270-5 with a SLG around 360-370, 6-7 HRs and 8-12 SBs. I'd much rather take a shot on about 25 other SSs. I'd rather own Asdrubal or Arcia or Marte. Hell, I may even prefer his MI partner Espinosa, because at least I see a clearer path to relevance (just hit .245 Danny!). 

 

I do think there's a route for him to improve though, just because he's going to get every opportunity to similar to the way we've seen Kevin Kiermaier make career strides. I just dont see anything that leads me to believe he'll be fantasy relevant even in his "breakout" in the second half. 

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You'be touched on it with KK, and we've seen it with players like Arenado and Lindor, glove first guys "click" offensively.

 

Now, I don't think Simmons offers close to the same upside as arenado/Lindor...let me get that out the way...even if everything breaks right. And I don't at all think Simmons is relevant right now in 10-12 team standard leagues, this is a deep play all the way, and something of an enormous gut feeling in addition to the few positives under the hood.

 

But I do see an extremely athletic player who was successful on over 90% of his SB attempts and has shown in the past an ability to hit for power. 

 

Steamer has him with 9 HR and 7 SB in 2017...I think realistically he could get 15+ SB with that conversion rate.

 

This is one of those ones I can't even believe I'm arguing because I've always known Simmons as a fantasy irrelevant player. But I can't shake the feeling that he will provide some value in deep leagues. Will probably have to just wait and see here, I 100% already know what the fantasy consensus on this is right now, and I can't blame anyone for staying away for now.

 

All I ask is that you put him on the watch list.

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  • 3 months later...
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  • 1 month later...

What do you guys think we have here ? 

 

Extended hot streak or someone who's figured things out and is a sleeper stud ?

 

I've hot Machado I've rotated between SS/3B and Diaz who has sucked, Simmons is looking molten hot. 

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I picked him up last week, he's cooled off on the multi hitters, but got me a couple SBs and HRs. I guess he made some adjustments second half of last year, he's actually been hitting better going back to last season, I don't think it's a mirage. Not having Trout and Maybin in the lineup don't help either, but I'd rather have Simmons than Dansby. 

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I think I'm about to take the plunge on Simmons and drop Diaz. In a 10-team points league (+1 R/RBI/TB/BB/SB, -1 K) and Diaz has been killing me. Had a decent April because of 4 homers and hasn't done hardly  anything since, especially nerve-wracking with an awful BB% (5%) and worrying soft% (22.3) and hard% (24.6). I also remember reading an analysis, can't remember where, of Cuban players - the majority of whom come in guns blazing and then have a really hard time adjusting. Cespedes is one of a very few to buck this trend, but think Puig as the poster child (huge start to his career, struggles since). Hopefully Diaz can turn it around but in a points league like mine he's been unsustainably bad.

 

Maybe it's cause not many leagues use points anymore, but I've been surprised at the lack of coverage for Simmons so cheers fawkes_mulder! He's currently the #8 overall SS in my league (Diaz is 15) and #6 over the last month. Looking at monthly splits it certainly appears he made an adjustment around the all-star break last year as you guys have noted. I don't expect him to make some Lindor-level adjustment and become a superstar, but I think he might just be athletic enough that with this adjustment and excellent plate discipline, he could be useful over the full year, especially in a points league like mine.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎12‎/‎13‎/‎2016 at 4:04 PM, fawkes_mulder said:

I can't shake the feeling that Simmons is going to end up being productive in 2017.

 

His 7.9% K rate last year is elite...and was a career low. He stole 10 bags vs. only 1 CS.

 

He only hit 4 HR, but has flirted with some power in the past, with 17 in 2013. I'm sure his raw power is not the issue, he's super athletic and obviously one of the best defenders in the game.

 

Bad new, of course, is that the Angels aren't a juggernaut offensively so R and RBI totals probably won't be good.

 

Very quietly, Simmons hit well to end the year, with 102 in the second half. Adam Jones, for reference had a 96 wRC+ last year.

 

He made changes to his swing.

 

Props, he's been great. Doesn't get a lot of love but seems like his bat is now catching up to his glove. 27 years old and from what I've seen lately even when he doesn't get on base he's hitting the ball hard. Seems like he steals every chance he gets now too. Keep it going kid!!

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  • 1 month later...
1 hour ago, Byebyebalboni said:

Still on fire

 

.301 11HR 15SB

 

For those of us thin at MI, he has been a godsend.

 

He's been quietly unreal.

 

 .301, 11 hrs, 50 rbis, 15 steals and an .808 OPS from the SS position?? Is he now a top 50-75 player? 

 

 

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On 12/13/2016 at 11:04 PM, fawkes_mulder said:

I can't shake the feeling that Simmons is going to end up being productive in 2017.

 

His 7.9% K rate last year is elite...and was a career low. He stole 10 bags vs. only 1 CS.

 

He only hit 4 HR, but has flirted with some power in the past, with 17 in 2013. I'm sure his raw power is not the issue, he's super athletic and obviously one of the best defenders in the game.

 

Bad new, of course, is that the Angels aren't a juggernaut offensively so R and RBI totals probably won't be good.

 

Very quietly, Simmons hit well to end the year, with 102 in the second half. Adam Jones, for reference had a 96 wRC+ last year.

 

He made changes to his swing.

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-sn-angels-report-20160723-snap-story.html

 

wRC+ by month --

 

Season Monthly BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
2016 Mar/Apr 2.2 % 5.4 % 0.40 .253 .269 .330 .598 .077 .259 6 -4.5 .260 63
2016 May 8.0 % 4.0 % 2.00 .087 .160 .087 .247 .000 .091 -1 -4.0 .126 -30
2016 Jun 5.7 % 11.3 % 0.50 .245 .283 .327 .610 .082 .273 4 -2.3 .265 66
2016 Jul 4.8 % 10.5 % 0.45 .375 .404 .479 .883 .104 .414 18 5.3 .379 144
2016 Aug 6.6 % 8.5 % 0.78 .278 .330 .289 .619 .010 .303 9 -3.4 .280 76
2016 Sept/Oct 8.9 % 5.9 % 1.50 .283 .347 .457 .803 .174 .277 14 2.3 .346 122
2016 1st Half 4.2 % 7.5 % 0.56 .269 .296 .353 .649 .085 .283 19 -6.6 .281 77
2016 2nd Half 7.1 % 8.2 % 0.86 .291 .346 .377 .722 .085 .309 32 0.0 .318

102

 

Well you called it man, Simmons has been great for the past few months now. On a 15/25 pace, with a .300 AVG, that is serious SS production easily top 10 and maybe even top 6-7 by the end of the season. 

 

He's really changed his swing to drive the ball more, and is running now which is what he needed to be valuable (wonder why he's only just started running, maybe he wanted to own himself in fantasy?).

 

REALLY wish he'd bat higher in the order though. With his OBP surely he should be hitting leadoff or 2nd ahead of Trout. He has the skillset now of a table setter, NOT a run producer. Just need a change of management as I'm not sure Scocia has the brains to realise that.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/andrelton-simmons-is-cool-again/

 

FWIWerth, 3rd ranked SS on ESPN player rater right now, ahead of Seager, Correa, Manny, Bogey. Sure that overrates steals but still shows his value this year.

Edited by swfcdan
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