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Michael Conforto 2017 Outlook


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I drafted Conforto last season and he had the great April then somehow just fell off a cliff and never recovered. This is like Deja Vu. What the heck. Is it this a game of adjustments, batter vs pitcher, and Michael needs an entire off-season to adjust?

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2 hours ago, lassetjus said:

I drafted Conforto last season and he had the great April then somehow just fell off a cliff and never recovered. This is like Deja Vu. What the heck. Is it this a game of adjustments, batter vs pitcher, and Michael needs an entire off-season to adjust?

 

Hopefully it's just a normal slump like everybody has. He hasn't fallen off a cliff. He had a great April and almost identical May unlike 2016 when he had a great April but fell off in May and beyond.

 

The bright and shining light this month is that even though he is in a slump he is still working the counts and taking his walks. His OBP this month is .383 despite only having a .206 batting average. I don't think it's fair to just assume that this is Deja vu because it is not. Even his slumps are better than last year's slump. Everyone goes through slumps so I wouldn't freak out right now!

 

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17 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

The whole thing seems to be explained by injuries. He messed up his back exactly around the time his stats took a nosedive. The Mets medical team did their thing, I'm sure. And then now this. 

 

Conforto was pretty bad for a good 3 weeks before the back injury.. 

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Just now, chud12 said:

Conforto was pretty bad for a good 3 weeks before the back injury.. 

Not really. But I guess it depends on where you date the injury. For me looking back it was 6/12 when he got a "day off" that was later explained as an "ailing back", which to me suggests that it had actually happened before that.

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3 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Not really. But I guess it depends on where you date the injury. For me looking back it was 6/12 when he got a "day off" that was later explained as an "ailing back", which to me suggests that it had actually happened before that.

 

I drafted Conforto and he has been terrible for a good 5-6 weeks already. The back injury happened about 2 weeks ago. This is kind of a pointless debate but like I said he has sucked for a while now before the bsck injury ever flared up. Pitchers started throwing him a ton of changeups just like last year and he never made the adjustment and it has happened again this season. Conforto has a damn tough time hitting off speed stuff.   

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4 minutes ago, chud12 said:

I drafted Conforto and he has been terrible for a good 5-6 weeks already. The back injury happened about 2 weeks ago. This is kind of a pointless debate but like I said he has sucked for a while now before the bsck injury ever flared up. Pitchers started throwing him a ton of changeups just like last year and he never made the adjustment and it has happened again this season. Conforto has a damn tough time hitting off speed stuff.   

This is wrong.

Conforto had a 1.055 OPS in April and then 1.053 in May.

He only fell off once June hit. And like I said, the way it was reported, it seems clear the back problems started a while before they were ever actually reported.

I mean, I don't know if you're a Mets fan or have a friend on their medical staff. But it's a pretty significant possibility that it's the back + Mets staff.

Edited by Fiveohnine
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7 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

This is wrong.

Conforto had a 1.055 OPS in April and then 1.053 in May.

He only fell off once June hit. And like I said, the way it was reported, it seems clear the back problems started a while before they were ever actually reported.

 

To be exact, May 25th is where his season went to trash so it's been a month.  I was off by a week.  On May 25th it started a 6/39 slump and than he went 3/7 the next 2 games, than 2/15 before the back injury on the 12th. 

 

That is an 11/61 slump pre back injury. 

Edited by chud12
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6 minutes ago, chud12 said:

 

To be exact, May 25th is where his season went to trash so it's been a month.  I was off by a week.  On May 25th it started a 6/39 slump and than he went 3/7 the next 2 games, than 2/15 before the back injury on the 12th. 

 

That is an 11/61 slump pre back injury. 

Like I said, it's pretty clear that's wrong. The back injury was initially reported on the 12th. But the way it was reported clearly suggested that it had actually flared up a good while before the initial reports.

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1 minute ago, Fiveohnine said:

Like I said, it's pretty clear that's wrong. The back injury was initially reported on the 12th. But the way it was reported clearly suggested that it had actually flared up a good while before the initial reports.

 

Well the slump I pointed out is not wrong. I wouldn't put it past the Mets staff to say your right regarding his back injury lingering a while before the 12th. Whether u think it was exactly 17 days before when he actually started slumping is just your opinion but my point was his slump has occurred just like last year.  Giving Conforto a heavy dose of off speed stuff combined with him not making adjustments and than being pretty much lost after that.  Injury or not it's the same damn story as last season. 

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Don't get me wrong. I sent him off to waivers because I don't think anyone in my leagues will be keen enough to trace the problems back to injuries and he'll just sit there on waivers until he's back.

But I'll be keeping a very close watch to see if/when he comes back from this beaning fully healthy or not so that hopefully I'll be the first to pick him back up.

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Yea I cut him myself last week and he wasn't picked up until today by another team in my league. It was a joyess ride for 7 weeks but it came to an abrupt, unexpected hault thereafter. No one was thinking about selling high because it looked so real. The haul we could have obtained at Conforto's peak of hottness was prob a top tier pitcher, sigh. 

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Mets gonna Met.... 

 

I'm with Fiveohnine that I think this is (at least mostly) due to the back injury (and now wrist bruise)...

 

I don't think someone with his short MLB history can be looked and said "oh he started hot then faded last year, so he'll do it this year too".  It was his rookie year, that doesn't count.  This year he had a good April AND May, then there was injury in there somewhere and he's sucked since.  

 

The worst case scenario here is that he had ~a 2 week slump, then the back injury.  How many good players have 2 week slumps?  All of them?  Nothing to see here...  Best case is this is entirely due to the back injury, he can get healthy and proceed with mashing.

 

I don't think you can drop this guy in a 12 teamer... not yet.  His potential production dwarfs whoever you are going to pickup off waivers so he can't be dropped unless you are really desperate.  If he's still got "lingering back issues" in a few more weeks with no meaningful production in between then sure cut bait and chalk it up to the Mets being the Mets.

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3 minutes ago, LJJr said:

 

I don't think you can drop this guy in a 12 teamer... not yet.  His potential production dwarfs however you are going to pickup off waivers so he can't be dropped unless you are really desperate.  If he's still got "lingering back issues" in a few more weeks with no meaningful production in between then sure cut bait and chalk it up to the Mets being the Mets.

 

 

I picked up M.A.Taylor to carry me through the ASB.If Conforto can get right by then,he wins the "not the guy dropped when Trout gets back" award.Matt Kemp will get a set of steak knives and a handshake (unless he remembers whatever he was doing in April).

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Conforto is the 75th ranked player in a standard format and 30th in my league that counts OBP and SLG as well.  I think this guy just needs some time to get healthy and he'll start hitting again.  Someone noted his great OBP despite his struggles.  Are people dropping because of roster space or due to the belief he's not really as good as he's been?   I can't give up on a guy like this with 86 games left on the Met's schedule.  

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Wed, Jun 28

Mets manager Terry Collins admitted after Tuesday's game that they "don’t know how long it will be" before Michael Conforto (hand) returns to the lineup.

Advice: Two rounds of X-rays confirmed that Conforto doesn't have a fracture in his left hand after he was hit by a pitch Sunday. However, the outfielder was still in enough pain Tuesday that he wasn't even able to grip a bat, let alone swing it. It's possible he'll show up Wednesday feeling much better, but for now Conforto's status remains cloudy. The Mets will use Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce in the outfield while Conforto is out.

 

Fire everyone on the Mets.

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29 minutes ago, codyodea said:

Conforto is the 75th ranked player in a standard format and 30th in my league that counts OBP and SLG as well.  I think this guy just needs some time to get healthy and he'll start hitting again.  Someone noted his great OBP despite his struggles.  Are people dropping because of roster space or due to the belief he's not really as good as he's been?   I can't give up on a guy like this with 86 games left on the Met's schedule.  

 

Same problem with most discussions on this board. People who play in shallow leagues vs deeper and dynasty leagues.

 

A lot of people play in shallow redraft leagues with 3 of. Even a 12 team 5 of league is somewhat shallow. You can find guys. 4 weeks ago I would have loled someone dropping Conforto for Maybin. Not so much anymore.

 

In shallow redrafts I have no qualms dropping Conforto and playing hot potato with outfielders until you want to hold onto one.

 

Long term, I think he's a buy low dynasty asset.  I think most Dynasty owners know to hold tight.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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28 minutes ago, b0nfire said:

Wed, Jun 28

Mets manager Terry Collins admitted after Tuesday's game that they "don’t know how long it will be" before Michael Conforto (hand) returns to the lineup.

Advice: Two rounds of X-rays confirmed that Conforto doesn't have a fracture in his left hand after he was hit by a pitch Sunday. However, the outfielder was still in enough pain Tuesday that he wasn't even able to grip a bat, let alone swing it. It's possible he'll show up Wednesday feeling much better, but for now Conforto's status remains cloudy. The Mets will use Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce in the outfield while Conforto is out.

 

Fire everyone on the Mets.

So basically 50/50 that he has a fractured bone in his hand. I mean its the Mets. He could have bone sticking out through his palm and their medical staff would only notice it half the time.

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35 minutes ago, cs3 said:

So basically 50/50 that he has a fractured bone in his hand. I mean its the Mets. He could have bone sticking out through his palm and their medical staff would only notice it half the time.

Is Dr. Nick (Simpsons) their team physician? 

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