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Jackie Bradley Jr. 2017 Outlook


fawkes_mulder
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Had a very solid 2016 season in the aggregate. 

 

94 / 26 / 87 / 9 / .267 / .349 / .486

 

That said, he will almost certainly be drafted at an ADP below those numbers. I know many people who believe JBJ to be merely a product of two legendary hot streaks over the past two years. An exercise in cherry picking, to be sure -- but my market test in my dynasty league shows him undervalued.

 

What can we expect in 2017? 

I like JBJ's walk rate, I like that he has some moderate power and speed, I like that he's on the Red Sox for R and RBI. I feel like he can contribute across the board. However, IIRC, he seems to benefit from batting late in the order, which will cost him some PA over the course of the season, if that remains.

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I get the hesitation about cherry-picking the hot streaks, but this is a guy who hit .233 in the 2nd half of the season, and his .237 career AVG in almost 1500 PAs suggests those may have been nothing more than hot streaks that you can't bank on. 

Steamer projects-

.261/70/17/69/7

 

I think that's a fair projection, but the AVG is really worrisome. I wouldn't be shocked if he's below .255. 

 

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As a sox fan, I completely loved the season he had. Do I think he replicates 2016? No.

He has never truly hit for average at any level that I can remember, nor had the power. I would love for him to put up comparable numbers but cant see it

I wish they sold high on him during the season when he looked unstoppable.

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2 hours ago, Wizard of Boz said:

I wish they sold high on him during the season when he looked unstoppable.

WAR isn't an end all or anything, but he was worth 4.8 in 2016 and 2.4 in half a year in 2015. He provides excellent defense. I think he's a better IRL player than fantasy, but the Red Sox should be happy with what they've got IMO...

 

He's shown flashes of superstar potential. I wonder if he can ever put it together for a whole season. As is, though, he looks like a clear above average real life player.

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10 hours ago, Wizard of Boz said:

As a sox fan, I completely loved the season he had. Do I think he replicates 2016? No.

He has never truly hit for average at any level that I can remember, nor had the power. I would love for him to put up comparable numbers but cant see it

I wish they sold high on him during the season when he looked unstoppable.

i would somewhat argue the hit for average statement...he was an uber prospect for a few years with a fairly high ceiling and a very high floor predicted. OBP machine with wheels.

from 2012 - 2015 he averaged .295 in the minors over 1131 AB. that's a fairly large sample size over multiple minor levels as he progressed. obviously it hasn't translated to the majors, but i wouldn't be shocked to see him sustain an average of .260 or better.

the power part you are correct, though.. fools gold for those who draft him for it, IMO

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11 hours ago, Wizard of Boz said:

As a sox fan, I completely loved the season he had. Do I think he replicates 2016? No.

He has never truly hit for average at any level that I can remember, nor had the power. I would love for him to put up comparable numbers but cant see it

I wish they sold high on him during the season when he looked unstoppable.

 

 

As a Sox fan I agree with your assessment of his hitting. I think what we saw in the second half is closer to what we get from him. But with his defense - who cares?  He was always a defense pick.   He can hit just enough - we still have plenty of guys who can hit more than just enough to compensate for him.

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13 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

WAR isn't an end all or anything, but he was worth 4.8 in 2016 and 2.4 in half a year in 2015. He provides excellent defense. I think he's a better IRL player than fantasy, but the Red Sox should be happy with what they've got IMO...

He's shown flashes of superstar potential. I wonder if he can ever put it together for a whole season. As is, though, he looks like a clear above average real life player.

I agree.  They want him for his glove first last and foremost.  Anything they get from his bat is viewed as gravy and they got a nice helping in the early part of 2016.  The latter half production is what they expected all along.

They will stick him in the nine hole perhaps because he has a little speed and certainly more than Sandy Leon where he will serve as a second time around the line-up lead off type probably.  Beintendi is the only other candidate for that slot and hopefully he has shown enough not to be regulated to the number nine slot.

I think where Bradley hits in the line-up effects him more than most players too.  He flourished in the ninth spot and started to crap out when the moved him into the latter part of the middle of the order.  Keep the pressure off of him and let him bat ninth and he may prove a bit more consistent.

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On 12/19/2016 at 2:11 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

I agree.  They want him for his glove first last and foremost.  Anything they get from his bat is viewed as gravy and they got a nice helping in the early part of 2016.  The latter half production is what they expected all along.

They will stick him in the nine hole perhaps because he has a little speed and certainly more than Sandy Leon where he will serve as a second time around the line-up lead off type probably.  Beintendi is the only other candidate for that slot and hopefully he has shown enough not to be regulated to the number nine slot.

I think where Bradley hits in the line-up effects him more than most players too.  He flourished in the ninth spot and started to crap out when the moved him into the latter part of the middle of the order.  Keep the pressure off of him and let him bat ninth and he may prove a bit more consistent.

 

I find the keep the pressure off him comment and order stuff very interesting. I typed this profile before coming to this thread but a couple of the flaws I've found, given his plate discipline he's always showcased, seemed a little... almost mental. Here's the novel: 

 

Took a deep look into Jackie Bradley Jr. As a player with a ton of ups and downs and hot streaks and cold streaks, I assumed I’d find a fair amount in terms of what of what lead him to struggle after the first two months of the season. Quite honestly, found some strong positives, didn’t like a lot of what I found.

 

When I first looked at JBJ the first general thing that stuck out like a sore thumb to me was that, despite various numbers to the contrary, JBJ had a higher BABIP v. LHP than v. RHP in 2016. He accomplished this despite all the following factors:

a FB% that was 0.2% higher,

a 9.1% lower Hard% and a 7.0% higher Soft%,

a 3.3% lower LD%,

an 8.4% higher PU%,

and other factors suggesting that he should’ve struggled more v. LHP including having a 3.9% higher K% and hitting only 3 of his 26 homers against LHP. The only fact suggesting he should’ve had a higher BABIP v. LHP last year was a higher Oppo%, which though higher was still pull-heavy. So my first basic deduction is that he probably should’ve had a bit higher of a BABIP v. RHP (xBABIP only projects a .003 point rise though due to Pull tendencies) and a MUCH lower BABIP v. LHP. This lower BABIP v. LHP is a pretty sizable problem too, because as is he only hit .244 with a .673 OPS v. LHP. With no skills improvement, I don’t think he repeats either of these numbers.

 

Overall JBJ’s profile throughout the 2016 season doesn’t really suggest a very good BABIP either. While his Hard% was much better than years past, and quite good, his LD% below league average, his PU% was above 10%, and most problematic of all, he was a very pull heavy hitter in 2016, with the 23rd highest Pull% and the 18th lowest Oppo%. So while his Speed and Exit Velocities were good, his launch angles and spray were very bad, which doesn’t do great things for a general BABIP projection overall.

 

While the 2016 sample is larger than 2015, I decided to take a look at JBJ’s Zone Profile between the two years before getting deep into the pitch specific information, the hot streak/cold streak information, or much deeper into the platoon specific information. I didn’t really like what I found there either. Firstly, on the low-and-away corner alone, Jackie Bradley Jr. went from chasing 21.51% of pitches (20/93) in 2015 to chasing 32.20% of pitches (57/177) in 2016. And overall he chased a vastly higher percentage of pitches outside the zone away from 2015 to 2016. I’ll post the Zone Profile below the paragraph for reference, but if you start middle away and look at the three squares including the already mentioned low-and-away you have zone specific chase rates outside the strike zone that go from 26.23%, 28.00%, and the already mentioned 21.51% to 37.01%, 35.43% and 32.20%. While Bradley did swing more overall in 2016, his Swing% overall only increased from 43.7% to 45.1%., so the large increase on chasing outside pitches is pretty concerning. In the 92 ABs that ended in these three zones, Bradley had 15 Hits (.163 BA) and 23 Total Bases (.250 SLG).

 

And in fact, there is a zone where he struggled even more. If you take the zone one to the right of the low and away zone, he Swung a whopping 54.69% of the time and had a .275 SLG over 51 ABs. He also had a Whiff% of above 23% in this zone. Not good. When you combine poor performance in these four zones outside the strikezone with INCREASED Swing%’s in those zones, I get a little worried. More than a little really.

 

Here’s the aforementioned graphs:

2015 JBJ Swing%

2016 JBJ Swing%
2016 JBJ SLG%

 

What’s interesting is that he appeared to be mostly leaving the low and away zone in particular alone during his hot streak. He chased 23.68% of pitches low and away between the beginning of the season and May 31st while chasing 35.00% of pitches low and away after that date. Now there is a bit of a scoring caveat here: he did reduce his Swing% in the two adjacent zones, so perhaps this *could* be seen as a matter of scoring, as an inch this way or that can completely change a zone, but I’m more inclined to believe the opposite side of the coin: that pitchers move the ball a bit more outside or a bit lower and he kept swinging at it anyway. Here’s his Swing% for the hot streak and the rest of the season overall:

 

JBJ Swing% (Thru May 31st)

JBJ Swing% (June 1st and Beyond)

 

I also took a look at the four zones that I was talking about seeing the increased Swing% above and went to see how much more targeted they were between his hot streak and cold streak. JBJ saw an increase both in those four zones overall, from 22.88% to 25.95% as well as just the low and away square that he loved to swing at so much from 5.37% to 7.68%. So we’re adding more bad on more bad: Pitched there more, swinging there more, and producing poor results more. Overall I believe that the plate discipline of JBJ is better than a lot of other hitters that I find these flaws in, so I believe that maybe he just didn’t have his head right and coming into 2017, he’ll focus on this and improve it. But even his September chase rate low and away (34.15%) does not give me any empirical evidence to suggest he’ll do better. For a guy who insists on pulling the ball so much, he really needs to either develop something to hit outside pitches or just stop swinging at all these pitches outside the zone away. So it’s concerning but as concerning as it may sound or I may make it sound, I do think that it’s something he can improve upon rather quickly.

 

JBJ Pitch% (Thru May 31st)

 

JBJ Pitch% (June 1st and Beyond)

 

JBJ’s pitch specific data actually looks pretty damn good. He doesn’t whiff too much at any particular pitch. His highest whiff% on pitches that he saw at least 100 times was a very solid 14.54% on sliders. He did whiff a bit much on 4SFBs at 12.18%, but this is far from a large concern for me.

 

In terms of results, JBJ produced a SLG north of .480 on both Fastball variants and .535 on Curves. He seems to love these pitch types. Two things stick out to me though, one on Change-Ups and one on Sliders.

 

On Sliders, he seems to have been struck out a disproportionate amount of time considering his Whiff%. JBJ struck out 31 times in his 80 ABs that ended on Sliders (38.75%). While he did hit for a high ISO (.200) versus Sliders, he needed a .326 BABIP to just get to a .225 BA on the pitch type. To me there could be a fair amount of circumstance here but also it seems opposing pitchers just beat JBJ on sequencing even though he did well on Sliders overall. So part of it could be chalked up to circumstance, but part of it could also be explained mentally if pitchers are getting him primarily in two strike counts. The ISO though makes this a less concerning and more fixable thing to me than Change-Ups.

 

On Change-Ups, JBJ produced his lowest ISO on any major pitch type, which wasn’t that bad for a worst pitch at .124, but he hit .161 for a .284 SLG against the pitch type. While the BABIP of .177 is probably too low for change-ups, I’m concerned that it’s largely influenced by what I suspect to be very low exit velocities. JBJ seemed to elevate very few change-ups (60+% GB%) and that combined with the lack of damage makes me think that it is a problem pitch for him right now, particularly in terms of really getting a hold of it.

 

Now we get to my biggest concern with JBJ. His Pitch Specific Data versus lefties is, largely, bad. Very bad. Here are his ISO’s against pitch type, excluding Cutters (For a soon to be evident reason):

 

ISO by Pitch Type v. LHP

4SFB: 0.118

Sinker: 0.000

Change: 0.000

Slider: 0.029

Curve: 0.042

 

The highest SLG of any of these pitch types is .333. While he didn’t whiff a ton against lefties either (same as the Overall, fastball a little high for my taste at 12+%, but no breaking ball goes much over 15%), he didn’t seem to ever drive the ball. Combine that with a pull-heavy approach, essentially the same exact approach he uses against righties, and you get the reasons why he did things like Pop-Up on just over 17% of his Fly-Balls and have a Line Drive rate that was 14th worst in Baseball v. LHP. Here’s where it gets a little crazy though:

 

Cutter v. LHP: .462 BA, .615 ISO, 1.077 SLG.

 

So he DESTROYED Left Handed Cutters but was far below average on every other pitch type. These Cutter stats completely carried his entire line v. LHP. According to Brooks, he saw a Cutter 7.01% of the time v. LHP and those 7+% Cutters represented a whopping 34.15% of his production in terms of total bases. So the two quickest and easiest observations would be, A: He may be able to hit Cutters, but it’s hard to imagine he hits them at that rate again, and B: When the Cutter numbers fall, and when you consider he has a considerable Weakness on every other pitch type v. LHP, what do you have left? I’m very worried about JBJ v. LHP going into 2017.

 

I’ve done this with some hitters and I redid my projections with JBJ doing this as well, but I’ve basically projected JBJ as two hitters based on his PAs from 2016. I’ve projected JBJ as a pretty good hitter with a lot of power, an above average BABIP, and a lower K% for 454 PAs and I’ve projected JBJ as a pretty poor hitter with little power and a below average BABIP with a higher K% for 182. While I do obviously believe Platoon advances are possible, and very necessary for JBJ’s next step, those are typically the kind of things I won’t project very much and will only somewhat rank as happening based on my confidence level with the individual player. Basically though, this methodology will hurt his end line (albeit not much, because I do think I was just low on JBJ to begin with, and I do think his metrics v. RHP are really encouraging for him to really beat up righties) and I will be adjusting his projection down a bit and probably his ranking too when I do my Friday update.

 

Starting Projection: .263/25/10

Bottom Line Adjusted Projection: .260/22/10

 

Bottom Line: JBJ showed a lot of warts in 2016 particularly after his hot streak, and they were warts that didn’t necessarily get fixed as the season moved along. While most of his warts I think are fairly fixable, such as laying off outside pitches and preparing better for pitchers sequencing, the overall performance against most pitches that I typically consider the most important v. LHP leaves a ton to be desired. When you combine that with how he appears to be approaching each side, it really looks to me like he’s trying to be the same guy v. RHP and LHP and it isn’t working. I’m not the guy to ask if Bradley should be trying to give up his LHP approach or try to just work through it, though I’d probably prefer he just tried to use the opposite field a little bit more. Ultimately between pull consciousness and splits I think there’s some pretty large pitfalls here for his batting average, but looking at what he did v. RHP over the course of the year also leaves room for upside, ceiling and the like. JBJ’s defense should keep him in the lineup to work on these platoon issues, and very few hitters do 20/10, so there’s a stable level of power, but again, having almost all his HRs come v. RHP with a HR/FB over 20+ isn’t exactly what I want to see for a good power projection. I’m more than likely moving Bradley down on Friday. I have him above ADP right now at OF34/OVR107 and his ADP sits at OF36/OVR122 according to fantasypros. I'm not likely to have him over the ADP come Friday, but I do think he'll hit enough against righties and get enough playing time due to defense to still be a solid contributor, but without a Boston line-up to boost his counting stats I wonder how different a JBJ and Max Kepler projection look at this point. I'd say about OF40 at this point, but with some light shuffling to do it's hard to say for certain. 

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xStats liked JBJ a fair bit. xAvg .268, xOBP .346, xSLG .466, so by the quality of the batted balls, xStats saw him as a true talent .812 OPS guy with 22 HR true talent last year. After his regression from his epic hot streak, I eyeballed his true talent in the .750 to .775 OPS range, I might have been too punitive.

 

I think he's relatively appropriately valued in the ADP 100+, maybe 110 or 120+ range. He'll chip in some SB too. I do expect R and RBI to regress a great deal, as he'll likely be batting somewhere 7-9 in the order.

 

I traded him straight up for Rich Hill in a dynasty league and got pretty mixed opinions here on RW.

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7 hours ago, taobball said:

...

Bottom Line: JBJ showed a lot of warts in 2016 particularly after his hot streak, and they were warts that didn’t necessarily get fixed as the season moved along. While most of his warts I think are fairly fixable, such as laying off outside pitches and preparing better for pitchers sequencing, the overall performance against most pitches that I typically consider the most important v. LHP leaves a ton to be desired. When you combine that with how he appears to be approaching each side, it really looks to me like he’s trying to be the same guy v. RHP and LHP and it isn’t working. I’m not the guy to ask if Bradley should be trying to give up his LHP approach or try to just work through it, though I’d probably prefer he just tried to use the opposite field a little bit more. Ultimately between pull consciousness and splits I think there’s some pretty large pitfalls here for his batting average, but looking at what he did v. RHP over the course of the year also leaves room for upside, ceiling and the like. JBJ’s defense should keep him in the lineup to work on these platoon issues, and very few hitters do 20/10, so there’s a stable level of power, but again, having almost all his HRs come v. RHP with a HR/FB over 20+ isn’t exactly what I want to see for a good power projection. I’m more than likely moving Bradley down on Friday. I have him above ADP right now at OF34/OVR107 and his ADP sits at OF36/OVR122 according to fantasypros. I'm not likely to have him over the ADP come Friday, but I do think he'll hit enough against righties and get enough playing time due to defense to still be a solid contributor, but without a Boston line-up to boost his counting stats I wonder how different a JBJ and Max Kepler projection look at this point. I'd say about OF40 at this point, but with some light shuffling to do it's hard to say for certain. 

Great read, yet again. 

About the warts that didn't get fixed last season.  Bradley gave an interview to the Sox press a few days back where he talked about reading your analy ... errr ... I mean going over his past season in detail during the winter, heh. 

He said his major goal this year was to stop striking out so much so to stop chasing pitches, pulling everything etc etc. Interesting psychological thing is he mentioned how he knows that in this day and age striking out isn't suppose to bother the modern day player much but that it does bother him a lot and he feels deeply embarrassed every time he does so maybe his goal isn't some New Year's resolution forgotten a few days later and he will work on it.

Now whether this is confined to pitch selection or changing his mechanics or what anyway he sees himself as a work in progress right now regards his crusade against striking out so much.

About the comment right above about Runs and RBI going down.  Maybe RBI but Runs could be about the same.  IF he ends up 9th in the order that is.  Hitting ahead of Sandy Leone or Vasquez doesn't help him score much.  But hitting ahead of Pedroia, Xander (and possibly Benintendi) in the top three spots will ironically as in the 9th spot is a better slot for Runs then the 7th or 8th slots.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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7 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

About the comment right above about Runs and RBI going down.  Maybe RBI but Runs could be about the same.  IF he ends up 9th in the order that is.  Hitting ahead of Sandy Leone or Vasquez doesn't help him score much.  But hitting ahead of Pedroia, Xander (and possibly Benintendi) in the top three spots will ironically as in the 9th spot is a better slot for Runs then the 7th or 8th slots.

 

Very much this.  One of the weird situations where I hope he bats 9th based on the type of player he is and the opportunity it will provide for him. 

 

And of course @taobball with some expert analysis, but I think you're discounting him too much 

 

8 hours ago, taobball said:

Bottom Line: JBJ showed a lot of warts in 2016 particularly after his hot streak, and they were warts that didn’t necessarily get fixed as the season moved along.

 

You can say this for 2 consecutive years now with 2016 being the first year where he had a full slate of ABs.  I believe this is the year where he is able to work out the flaws and become a bit more stable rather than relying on some crazy hot streaks to boost his final stats.  As @The Big Bat Theory already pointed out..... laying off pitches outside the zone, cutting down on K's, and stop being an insane pull hitter are the EXACT things he recognizes himself and is working on this spring.

 

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4 minutes ago, midlip said:

 

Very much this.  One of the weird situations where I hope he bats 9th based on the type of player he is and the opportunity it will provide for him. 

 

And of course @taobball with some expert analysis, but I think you're discounting him too much 

 

 

You can say this for 2 consecutive years now with 2016 being the first year where he had a full slate of ABs.  I believe this is the year where he is able to work out the flaws and become a bit more stable rather than relying on some crazy hot streaks to boost his final stats.  As @The Big Bat Theory already pointed out..... laying off pitches outside the zone, cutting down on K's, and stop being an insane pull hitter are the EXACT things he recognizes himself and is working on this spring.

 

 

Right but those are all the things I'm more or less confident he can fix. Having very poor results against lefties is what I'm more or less worried about. I'm projecting the dude for like a .270+ with 19 HRs just v. RHP. And just because he recognizes faults doesn't mean they're just GOING to get better. It's important that he recognizes them and I think that was my main point of discussing how I think his PD makes these pitfalls more manageable-- but until you've done something you haven't done it, ya know? A platoon advance is the main thing holding him back and while platoon advances do happen frequently it's one thing I almost never take for granted as improving or improving a lot going into a seaosn. 

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2 minutes ago, midlip said:

I'll take the JBJ vs. Adam Eaton bet any day of the week :D

 

Maybe a different thread but I can't understand your distaste for Eaton. He finished highly last year doing the exact same thing he did the year before. If Dusty makes an a** of himself and drops him in the lineup maybe, but Eaton is great. 

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34 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

If he drops to 9, his RBI definitely take a hit, and any benefit he gets from now hitting "in front of" Pedroia, XB, etc. is balanced by the reduction in plate appearances by dropping to 9. I don't see any way to spin that as a positive. 

I do.  The Red Sox line-up is still very potent.  Batting 9th in it is basically not much different than batting 1st in the Minnesota or SD line-ups say as in he will get plenty of PAs in this line-up. 

I do agree I prefer Adam Eaton over Bradley in fantasy ball and I say that as a Sox fan.  But then Dusty said he'd probably hit Trea Turner and Jason Worth one-two so Eaton has to deal with Crazy Guy setting his line-up daily.  But these things all work out in the end.  It amazes me but it is true.  Position in the line-up has never really mattered in any of my dynasty leagues in the end I've found.  Just get the best player and the game itself always works this stuff out 99% of the time in the long run.

Disclosure I own both Eaton in two leagues and Bradley in 2 leagues.  One of the leagues of those two I own both in.  So I watch them both daily during the season a lot.

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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I do.  The Red Sox line-up is still very potent.  Batting 9th in it is basically not much different than batting 1st in the Minnesota or SD line-ups say as in he will get plenty of PAs in this line-up. 

I do agree I prefer Adam Eaton over Bradley and I say that as a Sox fan.  But then Dusty said he'd probably hit Trea Turner and Jason Worth one-two so Eaton has to deal with Crazy Guy setting his line-up daily.  But these things all work out in the end.  It amazes me but it is true.  Position in the line-up has never really mattered in any of my dynasty leagues in the end I've found.  Just get the best player and the game itself always works this stuff out 99% of the time in the long run.

 

I think you underrate the importance of lineup placement. The 9 hitter for BOS will have ~110-130 less PAs than the 1 hitter on SD or MIN. That's significant for counting stats. 

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5 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I do agree I prefer Adam Eaton over Bradley in fantasy ball and I say that as a Sox fan. 

 

I don't get it!  Can we all agree that Eaton's CEILING is the following:

 

100/14/50/14/.275 ?  and that is ASSUMING he bats near the top of the order..... drop him down and i see runs going down significantly obv

 

Assuming JBJ progresses (as I expect), I think his FLOOR is:

 

80/20/80/8/.255

 

with a CEILING of:

 

95/27/90/12/.270

 

JBJ ALL DAY

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7 minutes ago, midlip said:

 

I don't get it!  Can we all agree that Eaton's CEILING is the following:

 

100/14/50/14/.275 ?  and that is ASSUMING he bats near the top of the order..... drop him down and i see runs going down significantly obv

 

Assuming JBJ progresses (as I expect), I think his FLOOR is:

 

80/20/80/8/.255

 

with a CEILING of:

 

95/27/90/12/.270

 

JBJ ALL DAY

 

No, more like 125/16/70/22/.295

 

And for the most part your ceiling is indefensible:
 

14/14 is what he's done the last two years. You can't call what a guys done for two years his "ceiling." It doesn't work like that. With Dusty he could easily steal 20, and while I project a HR bump down, you can't tell me that it's fair to say what a guys done for two straight years his ceiling.

 

If he bats second with his OBP 100 Runs is closer to the floor than the ceiling. He's going to be a threat to score 110-120 pretty easily. 

 

Your BA projection is absolutley insane for a guy who hasn't hit below .284 in three years. 

 

And 50 is pretty low too considering he wont' be leading off. 

 

You significantly regressed him from last year and called it a ceiling. That's wrong. 

 

I don't understand how ANYONE let alone EVERYONE would agree that that is his ceiling. JBJ's Floor is .240. You're projecting a lot of improvements. For a guy who's really good v. RHP but pulls the ball an absolute ton and doens't hit lefties particularly well, he has some pitfalls in terms of BA.

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I think where he is being drafted.. You can justify getting a functional strong side platoon player as your no 3 OF in terms of maximizing value. If he was rated higher and expect to be a no 1 or 2 OF for your team. I'd pass..but i've always been a fan of platooning the lower end roster slots (last OF, UT).  He was one of only 8 OF with an 900 OPS vs the more common handed pitching after all...and the point is to draft more OF. So you can have Kepler and him.

 

Not everyone uses platoons though. So....

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1 hour ago, midlip said:

 

I don't get it!  Can we all agree that Eaton's CEILING is the following:

100/14/50/14/.275 ?  and that is ASSUMING he bats near the top of the order..... drop him down and i see runs going down significantly obv

Assuming JBJ progresses (as I expect), I think his FLOOR is:

80/20/80/8/.255

with a CEILING of:

95/27/90/12/.270

JBJ ALL DAY

I think Eaton is far more consistent which makes him better in H2H and gives you less high blood pressure in roto.  And I think he will hit around .290 with say 16-18 HR and 20+ steals.  The steals seals the deal for me.  I value steals a lot when they seem to be on the decline outside of a small handful of Steal Demons.   I think Jackie, trying to make more contact and less swinging for the fences this season, is more like 15 homers this season.

Once Dusty wakes up or Werth gets injured again I think Eaton will move up to the top of the line-up giving the Nats one-two with him and Turner in one or the other of these positions causing him to get 110+ Runs as well. 

And his batting average will be higher than Jackie's.  All of which makes me like Eaton more.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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1 hour ago, taobball said:

I don't understand how ANYONE let alone EVERYONE would agree that that is his ceiling. JBJ's Floor is .240. You're projecting a lot of improvements. For a guy who's really good v. RHP but pulls the ball an absolute ton and doens't hit lefties particularly well, he has some pitfalls in terms of BA.

 

OK - I'll acquiesce on the usage of "ceiling" and call it more of an expected projection, since I do not expect significant jumps in power or RBI....but this is why this board is great because it's forced me to more closely evaluate my perception and i am finding it hard to see how he doesn't hit in the top of the order (even though it's not locked)  and thus should be a lock for 100+ runs.

 

The rub will be steals... you guys are assuming under Dusty he's 20+   If that turns out to be true, i'll have to move him up but might need more evidence that will be the case 

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5 minutes ago, midlip said:

 

OK - I'll acquiesce on the usage of "ceiling" and call it more of an expected projection, since I do not expect significant jumps in power or RBI....but this is why this board is great because it's forced me to more closely evaluate my perception and i am finding it hard to see how he doesn't hit in the top of the order (even though it's not locked)  and thus should be a lock for 100+ runs.

 

The rub will be steals... you guys are assuming under Dusty he's 20+   If that turns out to be true, i'll have to move him up but might need more evidence that will be the case 

 

Right but even an expected projection... I'm hoping you're not expecting .275 either because given his last three years of hitting .300, .287, and .284 I find that very unlikely. It just seemed weird, ceiling or not, to regress someone who's as successful as Eaton two years running to a line significantly worse than he had the year before. I mean you literally moved 9 RBIs to 9 Rs and dropped the BA. He was 14/14/91/59/.284 and you put it at 14/14/100/50/.275. 

 

I don't know why you wouldn't expect a jump in RBI either to be honest batting 2nd as opposed to first and hitting behind Trea Turner. I mean maybe you're personally low on him too, but if we as a fantasy community are projecting Turner to steal between 40 and 60 bases than Eaton should have a guy in scoring position an awful lot as opposed to last year following the 8/9 hitters of the White Sox. If he had 59 last year I don't think 70 is very much a stretch at all and 80-90 wouldn't surprise me.

 

Power I completely agree I'm not projecting even the 14 he hit last year, but a high BA hitter like Eaton? He's not as much of a long shot as I think we're making it sound for 200 R+RBI in a two spot, if Dusty doesn't screw em. 

 

And this is the point where we do really need to be in the Eaton thread. 

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11 hours ago, midlip said:

 

I don't get it!  Can we all agree that Eaton's CEILING is the following:

 

100/14/50/14/.275 ?  and that is ASSUMING he bats near the top of the order..... drop him down and i see runs going down significantly obv

 

Assuming JBJ progresses (as I expect), I think his FLOOR is:

 

80/20/80/8/.255

 

with a CEILING of:

 

95/27/90/12/.270

 

JBJ ALL DAY

So Eaton's ceiling is worse than his 2016 season? How does that make any sense?

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14 hours ago, midlip said:

 

OK - I'll acquiesce on the usage of "ceiling" and call it more of an expected projection, since I do not expect significant jumps in power or RBI....but this is why this board is great because it's forced me to more closely evaluate my perception and i am finding it hard to see how he doesn't hit in the top of the order (even though it's not locked)  and thus should be a lock for 100+ runs.

 

The rub will be steals... you guys are assuming under Dusty he's 20+   If that turns out to be true, i'll have to move him up but might need more evidence that will be the case 

Three reasons he won't hit at the top of the order:

  1. Dustin Pedroia
  2. Andrew Benintendi
  3. Xander Bogarts

If Benintendi doesn't move up to the top of the line-up then Mookie remains batting third instead of clean-up.  There is absolutely no room at the top of the line-up for JBJ.

 

 

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