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Nomar Mazara 2017 Outlook


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Will this be the most annoying thread in fantasy baseball again? It was certainly in the running last season.

 

I have high expectations for Nomar, and have had them for a while now. I love his approach. His skillset is incredible. Great home park, good lineup, good lineup spot.

 

I think a safe expectation would be what the poster above highlighted... but I really think the breakout could come this season. With almost a full year of experience under his belt, I think he'll put together a really nice season.

 

I expect something like .290/80/23/90.

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hello! :D

:ph34r:

 

 

I'm seeing a similar year in 2017.

batting spot will determine R/RBI.

 

he had .266 AVG in 2016. with that he had .299 BABIP so he wasn't really that unlucky. a big problem for him was LHP (.234/.277/.270/.548). if he doesn't improve on that then I don't see him having a good AVG.

 

he started good in 2016, and got worse as the season went on.

April - .333, May- .283, June- .262, July- .264, August- .247, September- .233.

is that something on him, or maybe pitchers did something different to handle him better?

 

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2016/11/06/grading-rangers-nomar-mazaras-debut-provides-encouraging-outlook-young-career

 

Quote

A solid rookie season, plenty of room to grow. Most notably vs. left-handers. Against lefties, he hit just .185 with no extra base hits in 58 plate appearances after June 1 and was a platoon player the final two months. 

 

power wise I'm not seeing much of an improvement. I think he should be right around what he had in 2016 with 20, give or take 2-3 either way. 

 

 

 

 

 

     
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He is only 21 years old.  Will turn 22 early in the season.  His power will grow.  I am amazed that someone that young has done this well so far.  I imagine part of his late season fizzle was because he had never played that many games in a season ever before and ran out of gas.  Not just a game of adjustments only in other words.

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  • 3 weeks later...

sleeper write up from razzball.

 

http://razzball.com/nomar-mazara-2017-fantasy-sleeper/

 

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Here’s a fun list:

Carlos Gonzalez — 424.6 feet
Giancarlo Stanton — 422.8
Trevor Story — 420.3
Nomar Mazara — 415.8

 

A) Surprised to not see Cespedes since he started with 100 feet B) Hot damn, Nomar!  C) There’s no C.  If you haven’t guessed, that’s the top distances averaged on home runs for players with at least 18 homers last year.  Two of the guys were Rockies, i.e., Coors, and the other one was Giancarlo.  Right behind Nomar Mazara was Nelson Cruz, Joc Pederson, Trout and Goldschmidt.  Oh, and tied with Mazara was Mitch Moreland.  Is there a non-home run hitter among these men, I ask sounding like a character from Game of Thrones.  Granted, I do believe it to be true (why do I sound like I’m talking Middle Ages English?) that if someone hits fewer homers there’s gonna be a chance their average distance will be higher.  In other words, Mazara hit 20 homers last year.  If he hit 30 homers, maybe he would’ve hit a few just-outta-heres and his average distance would’ve lowered, but he didn’t so I’m throwing out my theory that I just threw in there.  Don’t ask me why I didn’t just omit it to begin with and don’t end a sentence with with — dah!  If I wanted, I could link to or post a bunch of upper deck blasts by Mazara.  Seriously, he did not get cheated on his dingers.  I personally hate when my dingers are cheated on.  So, what can we expect from Nomar Mazara for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?'

 

Well, second things first, he’s a sleeper, because he won’t be drafted until around 150 to 200 overall.  He’s a 21-year-old that just hit 20 homers that averaged distances hardly seen.  21 years old?!  This isn’t fair.  I don’t know why hype isn’t building hard for this guy.  It could be because of his lesser 2nd half.  I’m not talking his bum, I’m talking about August/September.  He hit .242 and his Ks skyrocketed to 25.4%.  Since he doesn’t have any speed whatsoever, he needs to hit to continue to prove valuable.  I’d say his 2nd half was merely growing pains that killed our Boner.  RIP.  His 2nd half doesn’t concern me.  If you’re all ears like Alfred E. Neuman, what does worry me is his fly ball rate.  He doesn’t hit a ton of them.  He hits grounders.  That’s not good for a guy with no speed and big-time power.  If he tweaks his swing, he could be a 40-homer hitter.  No foolsies.  Unfortch, we can’t just project a guy to change his approach even though he’s only 21 years old and it would be easier for him than, say, a 35-year-old.  Even with his worm killer tendencies, which could cause him to duck PETA, he will easily hit 25 homers.  Here’s what I said when he was first called up, “(Mazara) kinda reminds me of a young Matt Holliday, though from the other side of the dish.  I watched some of his YouTube highlights and he doesn’t struggle to hit balls a long way, but also doesn’t look like a fat turd that can’t make it to first.  I’m no scout, but watching him makes me think this is what scouts call sexy.  I’ve seen him compared to Miguel Cabrera.  Okay, no one is Miguel Cabrera until they are Miguel Cabrera, if you catch my drift, but Mazara doesn’t look like a guy that is going to disappoint.  .280 with 30 homers a season for many years.”  And that’s me quoting me!  (I went on to say this year I’ll project him for 20 HRs and .275.  He hit 20 HRs and .266.  Give me that gold star!)  So, for 2017, I’ll give Nomar Mazara the projections of 72/ 26/ 81/ .277/ 2 in 554 ABs with upside from there and I want him on every team.

 

 

mentioned in there is fly ball rate, which is something that I talked about a lot in 2016. I also agree with what was said here, if he can elevate his fly ball rate then I see an increase in HR.

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Is ANYTHING not covered in fantasy baseball anymore? It's almost impossible to keep stuff to yourself anymore. I was looking at the HR tracker info the other day and said "hmmm Mazara, keep that in the back of your head." 

 

But noooooo you guys just have to uncover everything. Keep a lid on it dudes, some of us are trying to get an edge on the competition. 

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16 hours ago, motown magic said:

He dosen't steal bases so he'll have to do more with HRS-RBI -BA ( OBP ) and Runs.  I don't see him hitting over .260 , hitting 15-18 hrs and maybe 50-60 RBI. I think he's still a year or two away .

All of those numbers are worse than what he did last year. It's possible he's worse than last year, but why do you see him being worse than last year?

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Because he hasn't proven anything yet. Why is it so hard to see he him not improve much or at all ? He's still very young. DeShields and Profar will steal at bats. Texas needs to win NOW . I really don't think they will have much patience with him especially if he gets off to a slow start.

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with the way Mazara finished the season (Aug- .247/.304/.397/.701. Sept- .233/.288/.466/.753) it's not unreasonable to question if Mazara can produce in 2017.

if he does get off to a slow start I could see them sending him to the minors.

he has a lot of talent and a lot of potential, but there are still questions/concerns.

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4 hours ago, motown magic said:

Because he hasn't proven anything yet. Why is it so hard to see he him not improve much or at all ? He's still very young. DeShields and Profar will steal at bats. Texas needs to win NOW . I really don't think they will have much patience with him especially if he gets off to a slow start.

It's not hard to see him not improving at all. But he'd need to actually get WORSE to meet those numbers you posted - numbers you say you don't see him exceeding. Why is it impossible for young players to not get WORSE?

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4 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

with the way Mazara finished the season (Aug- .247/.304/.397/.701. Sept- .233/.288/.466/.753) it's not unreasonable to question if Mazara can produce in 2017.

if he does get off to a slow start I could see them sending him to the minors.

he has a lot of talent and a lot of potential, but there are still questions/concerns.

 

This ^  Thats basically what I said . He doesn't have the spot locked down . I think his leash will be short . Not a choker. ST stats won't mean a whole lot because of the whole process pitchers go through developing an honing their pitches. Plus the fact that some of the pitchers he may face will probably never see a pension. Many will end up professional minor leaguers. Its what happens the last week of ST and the first month to six weeks that will be the telling story IMO. With at least two players breathing down his neck for PT the pressure will be on.

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  • 1 month later...

I see this from rotoprofessor..

 

Quote

The Rangers’ Nomar Mazara was thrust into an everyday role in 2016 and backed up the hype that preceded him.  That’s not to say that there weren’t some bumps or concerns, but at the end of the day posting the following rookie line has left a positive taste in the mouths of fantasy owners:

516 At Bats
.266 Batting Average (137 Hits)
20 Home Runs
64 RBI
59 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.320 On Base Percentage
.419 Slugging Percentage
.299 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Now we must ask ourselves what type of sophomore campaign we should expect.  Will he suffer from a sophomore slump and struggle through 2017?  Will he back up his rookie campaign by taking another step forward and truly emerge as one of the better outfielders in the league?  Let’s take a look:

While there were strong signs in his approach at the plate, there is an adjustment that is needed if he wants to continue thriving.  There was a clear split in his numbers, and the second half marks bring some concerns:

Half
Line Drive Rate
Strikeout Rate
SwStr%
First 24.4% 15.8% 7.5%
Second 16.3% 25.4% 10.2%

The second half marks led to a .242 average (.282 in the first half), and while it may be a bit extreme we have to remember that he held a 19.6% strikeout rate at Double-A in ’15 (470 PA).  Couple that with Whiff% of 14.52% against breaking balls and 14.20% against offspeed pitches and there’s a good chance that the second half strikeout rate is closer to the truth.  His line drive rate should improve, which will help him maintain a decent average, but a regression is coming.

There’s also the risk of a platoon, as there was a distinct split in his production:

  • vs. RHP – .274 with 19 HR
  • vs. LHP – .234 with 1 HR

That would put him on the favorable side, but any platoon is going to impact a players value due to the loss of AB.

Without much speed we need to ask about his power potential.  It’s fair to wonder if there will be much, if any, growth considering his lack of additional extra base hits (13 doubles and 3 triples) and inflated groundball rate (48.9% overall, 53.6% in the second half).  A regression in his average, with stagnation in his power, alone would cap his value as a back-end option.  The potential for a regression in his power as well just further makes him a sophomore that is tougher to trust.

That’s not to say that he’s unusable, as the numbers come together for the following 2017 projection:

.267 (140-525), 21 HR, 75 RBI, 65 R, 2 SB, .316 BABIP, .327 OBP, .438 SLG

There’s some upside in the line, but it’s more of an OF4 or OF5 than someone you want to trust as anything more on draft day.  While the name may persuade some, don’t make the mistake of overvaluing him and reaching.

 

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On 1/9/2017 at 6:09 PM, motown magic said:

 

This ^  Thats basically what I said . He doesn't have the spot locked down . I think his leash will be short . Not a choker. ST stats won't mean a whole lot because of the whole process pitchers go through developing an honing their pitches. Plus the fact that some of the pitchers he may face will probably never see a pension. Many will end up professional minor leaguers. Its what happens the last week of ST and the first month to six weeks that will be the telling story IMO. With at least two players breathing down his neck for PT the pressure will be on.

 

I get the platoon risk I guess, though I wouldn't platoon a player that young until he proved he couldn't handle lefties. Maybe I'm blanking on OFs in TX, but who exactly is supposed to take his job to send him to AAA?

 

Roster Resource currently has the OF as Mazara in LF, Gomez in CF, and Choo in RF. They have Profar, Rua, and Deshields projected for bench roles. Choo can't seem to walk to and from the batter's box without sustaining some sort of injury. Gomez fell flat on his face last year after scuffling pretty mightily in 2015 as well. He was so bad the Astros outright cut him. Yes, Gomez played better in Texas, but it's not like he's without risk. Deshields likewise fell on his face and was sent to AAA. 

 

Mazara has some things to work through against LHP, but I also see a ton of talent as a hitter and I don't see anyone on the roster taking his job. Choo will miss time this year, guaranteed, and I think Gomez or Deshields or both are more likely to underperform/disappoint than Mazara. 

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Re: those second half splits. 

His hard hit % also went up by 12 percent in the second half and soft percentage down so while the contact rate took a big dive, he was improving his power.

He hit a homer every 23 PAs in the second half after homering every 30 PA in the first half. 

 

People talk about a "rookie wall" and he did seem to hit that. Will be interesting to see how learns from how he was pitched.

But i think he gets similar PAs as last year (unless he hits even worse against lefties) and hits 22 homers, 75 RBI, .260/.320/.430 or so. 

Edited by ryno1980
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His ADP is 191, per fantasypros.  Others going around there include Inciarte, Beltran, Gomez, Devon Travis, and Sonny Gray.  At the very least he set up a solid baseline of numbers last season to warrant a spot in that part of the draft.  His  contact rates across the board are slightly above average, and he has less swinging strikes than the average player.  He did only have a .266 average last season, but that's partly due to luck as he had a .299 BABIP.  If that goes up and he keeps hi K rate in check, which I think he does, he could be in line for a solid .280 season.

 

Now, right now he's projected as seventh in the lineup, at least according to rotochamp.  But Gomez and Choo are one and two, so I get the feeling it'll be a matter of time before he replaces one of them.  The run scoring opportunities will be a bit scarce early on, but I expect he'll end up better than last year's numbers.

 

But how does his power project?  He only had a FB rate of 29.7% with a HR/FB ratio of 16.4%.  But, only four guys with at least 18 home runs - Carlos Gonzalez, Stanton, Story, and Moreland - had a greater average home run distance than he did.  We're seeing two different things here.  A slightly below average FB rate and significantly above average home run distance numbers.  I'm more impressed with the home run distance than I am concerned with the FB rate, especially considering the scouting reports had given him good power ratings.  Basically he's got the raw power, just needs to improve his game power, and I see nothing that tells me he won't be able to trend upwards in that category.

 

TL;DR  .280/23/80/75

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

So I left Nomar off my initial Top 250 and I think it was probably a combination of not knowing what to think of his 2016 and not having done a deep enough dive, because a hitter with Nomar’s talent and a decent Big league stint already finished definitely deserves to be ranked somewhere in any top 250. So it was partially an oversight and partially an intention to fix later, I just never fixed it later. I will be placing him somewhere in the top 250 soon here for my Friday Update.

 

Nomar Mazara hit .266 with 20 HRs in 2016 and was also notably batting .277 before an 0/22 streak to finish out the season. Aside from Mazara’s incredible talent and age (will turn 22 shortly after the start of the MLB season), the first thing that needs to be pointed out is that Nomar Mazara had some pretty ugly L/R splits last year. While his BA wasn’t too ugly to look at (.234) Mazara had a grand total of TWO XBH v. LHP in 2016, giving him a .036 ISO and a .270 SLG v. LHP. Mazara struck out against southpaws nearly 6% more often and had a 7.3% lower Hard contact rate. In terms of the rest of his batted ball data, Mazara does effectively spray the field and held similar Pull/Center/Oppo%’s as well as LD%’s against both hands. What Mazara did do differently is put the ball on the ground 9.6% more often. I’m having a little trouble trying to figure out if I think there is an intention behind this or not. Certainly with only hitting two XBH against lefties, one would assume he isn’t really driving the ball too much, so at this point I believe that he may have just struggled to elevate the ball v. LHP’s in 2016. By the end of the 2016 season, Mazara was platooned, totalling 8 and 6 PAs against LHP in August and Sept/Oct. respectively. Because of the combination of his poor performance and the fact that the Rangers were willing to platoon him already, Mazara is not the safest bet for consistent playing time in 2016, and at his age if anything were to slump v. RHP, it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him spend a little bit of time in the minors. Due to his talent though, the ideal scenario for the Rangers is having Mazara take a step forward. So if you’re a believer, keep believing, and if you’re a doubter, probably best to look elsewhere.

 

Now I took a look at his zones to see if there were any oddities. He did chase at an above average rate last year but overall his Zone Profile looked pretty standard to me. He avoided the corners for the most part but what struck me as odd was that he did the opposite of what most hitters do-- he chased low and in more often than low and away. It almost made his zone profile seem like he was right handed. A bit of small sample size here of course, but this seems to be something that he does consistently struggle with and swing at. I broke his season up as being the first four months (Thru July, where he was hitting .281) and Post July. In the first data set, he was swinging at 35.3% of pitches in the low and in corner and the square horizontally adjacent. On these pitches he was whiffing 22.4% of the time and producing an SLG of .208. Now part of the following change is undoubtedly due to the platoon change, but from August 1st to the end of the season, he saw an increase in pitches in these two zones (from 9.93% to 13.97%) with very marginally better results (34.7% Chase, .267 SLG, 21.1% Whiff). It is weird to me that Mazara is so aggressive with the ball down and in, as that seems to be rather atypical for hitters, and should seem especially atypical for Mazara, who didn’t have good SLG%’s at all on pitches that were inside, and doing much better on pitches that were outside. The change from a fulltime player to a platoon player makes this data a little difficult to interpret, but either way, this seems like a problem zone.

 

I didn’t break up the zones by timing for this profile because they were relatively the same. Just take a look at how he seems to struggle far more down and in (Bottom Right) than low and away (Bottom Left) and how it almost looks like he’s a right hander.


Mazara Swing%

 

Mazara Whiff%

 

Mazara SLG%

 

That isn’t to say everything I found was discouraging though. One thing I found particularly encouraging was his Whiff% by pitch type. No pitch for Mazara was a problem pitch in 2016 in terms of whiffs, with the highest whiff% by pitch being under 15%. What’s more encouraging though is that Mazara had a miniscule 4.41% Whiff% on 4SFBs according to BrooksBaseball. That’s one of the better rates in the league. His slightly different measurement of 4.37% on Baseball Savant of 4.37% ranked him as the 28th lowest Whiff% on 4SFBs out of 225 hitters with a minimum 500 Fastballs faced. What’s even more impressive is his ability to hit fastballs for power while maintaining this contact rate, with 8 HRs off of 4SFBs in 2016. Most of the 27 hitters above Mazara on this list are guys who show very little power. For example, Ben Revere has the number 1 lowest rate. I decided to do some digging and see how many of the 27 hitters above Mazara had more than 8 HRs on 4SFB. Here’s the list:

 

Name | 4SFB Whiff% Ranking | 4SFB HR Count

Ben Zobrist | 5th | 8 HRs

Daniel Murphy | 6th | 11 HRs

Mookie Betts | 10th | 16 HRs

Coco Crisp | 11th | 10 HRs

Jose Altuve | 19th | 12 HRs

Aledmys Diaz | 20th | 9 HRs

 

So it’s small and (mostly) elite company.  And all 8 of those HRs were against RHP. And while he didn’t drive the ball on 4SFB v. LHP, he had a 4.20% Whiff%

 

For more Pitch Specific Information I decided to break it up by handedness because when I was analyzing it that seemed like the best way to view Mazara.

 

I’ve already covered how Mazara did really well against the 4SFB in 2016. He also excelled against righties in particular against the Sinker and Change. On these three pitch variants, Mazara posted a .520 SLG as well as 16 of his 20 HRs. Mazara struggled with right handed breaking balls though, slugging only .316 on Curves and Sliders. The Slider in particular drew some bad results from Mazara, and this seems to build on the point earlier about Mazara whiffing a lot on pitches down and in. While Mazara made consistent contact on Sliders overall in 2016, posting a pretty solid 13.60% Whiff% on Sliders, he was put away on RH Sliders on 40.5% of his ABs ending in Sliders. It would seem that the low slider that breaks down and in underneath Mazara’s hands is a pitch he has problems with, and a pitch that puts him away a fair amount of times despite not having problems-- at least in terms of contact-- with Sliders overall. This seems to be a particular hole for Mazara.

 

Now as referenced earlier, Mazara only produced two XBH on LHP in 2016, so it shouldn’t go as any surprise that Mazara’s pitch specific data v. LHPs comes with a very high amount of Zeros. In fact, both the double and homer Mazara hit v. LHPs in 2016 came off the Slider (.129 ISO) leaving his 4SFB, Sinker, Change, Curve, and Cutter performances v. LHP to all possess ISO’s of .000. There’s not much to note on Mazara’s pitch specific numbers v. LHP’s however, as the baseline gives pretty much the whole story with that .270 SLG and high GB%. Mazara had a few pitches produce high BABIP’s on grounders that were probably a bit too high to be sustained, such as a .000 ISO and .412 BABIP on Sinkers. There is one stat though that blew me away because it is so utterly bizarre that I don’t quite know what to make of it other than to say that it was probably small sample influenced. It is extremely bizarre and deserves it’s own line:

 

Nomar Mazara Whiffed at 4.20% of 4SFB’s that he saw in 2016 from LHPs. Nomar Mazara Struck Out on 4.90% of 4SFB’s that he saw in 2016 from LHPs. Let me reiterate this stat: We are not talking about a K% or K/AB, we are talking about K/Pitch Count. We are talking about the fact that, within the 143 4SFB’s that Mazara was thrown by LHP’s, he struck out more than he swung and missed. He swung and missed 6 of the 143 fastballs and he struck out on fastballs 7 times. That to me is one of the craziest stats I have found all offseason.

 

One thing I would like to see out of Mazara is a bit more consistency from the swing itself to generate more consist quality of contact. There is a recent fangraphs article with a near comical gif of Mazara falling apart all over himself in an effort to chase down a Jered Weaver ball. The way his leg buckles as he reaches just looks so bad. The author contends that this could be why we often see Mazara making hard contact, but that he still drives a high Soft% and low Hard% relative to what we may suspect even v. RHP. I actually think that is fairly reasonable given the power he’s shown despite the low Hard%. When you see some of the swings in this article, you may buy it too. Here is a link to the article:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/nomar-mazaras-polite-swings/

 

Mazara’s Projection worked a lot like Bradley’s the other day with me increasing the numbers v. RHP and decreasing the numbers v. LHP and ending up somewhere near where we were the year before.

 

Bottom Line Projection: .270/20/73/80/1

 

Bottom Line: There’s actually quite a few things with looking through Nomar Mazara’s numbers that say he’s going to be really good. The problem is, that there’s far more things that say that going may take a while to get here. His natural contact ability and natural power have played up extremely well for a young player against RHP. Mazara seems to struggle on those Sliders breaking in on the hands, and to some extent on breaking balls in general v. RHPs, but these to me seem relatively age related/first exposure related and these things I believe Mazara could see good progress on in 2017. I  think Mazara is going to put up a very strong line against RHPs in 2017. It’s the lefties that bother me. I definitely see the avenue by which Mazara improves v. LHPs in 2017, and even improves by quite a bit. The problem for me is that if we’re using 2016 as a measuring stick, he has a very very long way to go to become even an okay hitter v. LHP. With only two XBHs and a complete lack of ability to drive or elevate the ball, my projection reflects a very poor line v. LHP. It’s also important to note that he struggled to elevate the ball against both hands as the season got into the later months. He needs to find that drive again. Based on the above gifs from fangraphs, I’m willing to believe some of this is just sloppy swing mechanics that he needs to tighten up. I don't’ know what he’s trying to do with some of those Weaver pitches, and this isn’t exactly my area of expertise, but I can’t imagine what good he thinks is coming from a swing all jumbled like that. And despite significant talent, Mazara’s ranking reflects the dichotomy of having a lot of upside, while also having there be a chance of a platoon, a limiting of ABs, or even a demotion if he has a bad stretch v. RHP. He’ll be right around 200 for me when I post the Friday Update tomorrow (today, I suppose, as it’s nearly 4 AM).

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"There’s actually quite a few things with looking through Nomar Mazara’s numbers that say he’s going to be really good. The problem is, that there’s far more things that say that going may take a while to get here. "

 

Sounds like some immense talent from your write up, but still young and figuring things out.  The line for this year looks pretty good already, and curious on your thoughts for what his development curve might look like?

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5 minutes ago, svdude said:

"There’s actually quite a few things with looking through Nomar Mazara’s numbers that say he’s going to be really good. The problem is, that there’s far more things that say that going may take a while to get here. "

 

Sounds like some immense talent from your write up, but still young and figuring things out.  The line for this year looks pretty good already, and curious on your thoughts for what his development curve might look like?

 

Did you watch the fangraphs article gifs? He needs to stop doing that a lot. I'm not the best guy for swing mechanics... I'm researching and getting better but for the most part it's keeping an ear out and just looking for differences and working with the data of changes, but I can't imagine anything good is coming from that ugly stuff he's doing some times. His Curve v. RHP I think will be really quick, but his LHP I think he may be some time off and it depends on how much they play him to me. I mean he was essentially a slap happy GB%+ hitter v. LHP when you look at his Soft/Hard and GB rates... he really looks like Ben Revere v. LHP. 

 

Sounds like a joke comp but:

Revere 2016:

GB: 55.3%

Soft: 25.3%

Hard: 20.3%

 

Mazara v. LHP 2016:

GB: 56.6%

Soft: 26.5%

Hard: 22.9%

 

So he's got a really long way to go. It's really hard to estimate things like this but if I had to guess with fairly regular playing time V. LHP I'd say we see about another half season of bad, a half season of starting to elevate the ball, hopefully by the end of 2017 we have encouraging signs, and then 2018 is when he's a good player putting it all together and 2019 is who he's supposed to be with Power/BA. 

 

I know this doesn't help in drafts but I think perhaps the more actionable thing to think about is, if you happen to be watching say the first four games that Mazara plays v. LHPs and he's elevating the ball even if it's going right into the glove, like if you watch his first three starts and he has 5 decently hit LD/FB outs, a Double, and only hits the ball on the ground once, you might wanna try and be savvy and find a way to acquire him. Once he starts elevating the ball and driving the ball v. LHPs I think you'll see the development curve take some long strides, but until he breaks that wall he'll be held back. And I think, largely, that his struggles vs. RH breaking balls are more or less that they're hard to hit as a rookie so I can imagine him getting more drive on them this year, but that's something to monitor too. 

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"I know this doesn't help in drafts but I think perhaps the more actionable thing to think about is, if you happen to be watching say the first four games that Mazara plays v. LHPs and he's elevating the ball even if it's going right into the glove, like if you watch his first three starts and he has 5 decently hit LD/FB outs, a Double, and only hits the ball on the ground once, you might wanna try and be savvy and find a way to acquire him. Once he starts elevating the ball and driving the ball v. LHPs I think you'll see the development curve take some long strides, but until he breaks that wall he'll be held back."

 

Something to watch for in spring training for sure.  It looks like he won't be kept in my keeper league and have in on my radar as someone to pickup and stash.

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