Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Nomar Mazara 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

Tbh, @taobball I think there are a handful of us that would gladly throw you $5 or something to publish your rankings and projections in a few documents and send em to us without posting here. 

 

Don't know if you care about that at all, and I really appreciate your commitment to open-source data. 

 

But considering the time you put into this and the quality of work, it could work out to a couple hundred $ should you choose to make your work pay-to-view so to speak. 

 

Either way, thanks for your input. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 225
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

My biggest concern is him getting platooned. Hopefully the Rangers let him develop against lefties and don't write him off (See Conforto, Michael). Hopefully he shows some improvement because I can see it happening again with the Rangers fancying themselves as contenders. How's he looking this spring? Haven't seen much. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...
3 hours ago, herschel said:

anyone see how hes hitting this spring against lefties?  would think they would rather not platoon him, but its going to come down to how he hits them given the opportunity...

MLB is showing 7/16  .438

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
13 hours ago, aifan27 said:

I know it's only the first week of the season.....but are we witnessing the beginning of a breakout?

 

Hope so. Currently thinking of him as Randal Grichuk with a more professional approach. In fact, thinking of dropping Grichuk for him because Mazara's ABs look so damn good and I still don't think Grichuk can hit breaking balls. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, DrizzleOnTop said:

 

Hope so. Currently thinking of him as Randal Grichuk with a more professional approach. In fact, thinking of dropping Grichuk for him because Mazara's ABs look so damn good and I still don't think Grichuk can hit breaking balls. 

 

I don't see Grichuk as the best comp, though I'd definitely rather have Mazara over Grichik for the time being.  He's much more likely to sustain a good batting average, but lacks Grichuk's raw power.   I worry that Mazara will drop way down in the lineup once Beltre is back.  But, I'm holding him for an extended period, regardless, to see what April/May bring.  He plays at a great ballpark in a strong lineup and has major talent.  If he could his .280 with 25 HRs, with say 80 RBI, that's quite a good value at his ADP.  Some day he will be a .300/30 HR guy, but probably not this year.

Edited by Turkey Burgers
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Turkey Burgers said:

 

I don't see Grichuk as the best comp, though I'd definitely rather have Mazara over Grichik for the time being.  He's much more likely to sustain a good batting average, but lacks Grichuk's raw power.   I worry that Mazara will drop way down in the lineup once Beltre is back.  But, I'm holding him for an extended period, regardless, to see what April/May bring.  He plays at a great ballpark in a strong lineup and has major talent.  If he could his .280 with 25 HRs, with say 80 RBI, that's quite a good value at his ADP.  Some day he will be a .300/30 HR guy, but probably not this year.

 

Agreed.  I think a better comp would be Marcell Ozuna.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

I didn't realize Mazara's raw power was in doubt. I seem to recall him hitting some absolute moonshots last year as a 20 year old...

 

He has decent power, but his approach at the plate seems to suggest he will take the easy single, and doesn't sell out for power like a Grichuk or a Schimpf type.  It's a good thing.  Most of the stat nerds are guessing he's around 23.5 HRs this year.  I don't think anyone is going to be shocked if he develops a little ahead of schedule and hits a few more than that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Turkey Burgers said:

 

He has decent power, but his approach at the plate seems to suggest he will take the easy single, and doesn't sell out for power like a Grichuk or a Schimpf type.  It's a good thing.  Most of the stat nerds are guessing he's around 23.5 HRs this year.  I don't think anyone is going to be shocked if he develops a little ahead of schedule and hits a few more than that.

 

That's a good way to describe him.  I'm gonna be nitpicky for a minute here and say his power is better than decent though.  Among guys with a minimum of 18 home runs last season, only three - CarGo, Stanton, and Story - had home runs with a greater average distance than Nomar's 415.8 feet, that number being tied with Moreland.  And two of those three hit the better part of their home runs at Coors.  

 

That said, you're absolutely right that he doesn't sell out for power.  He has the raw power to someday hit 30 home runs and the discipline to do it with a solid average. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, VitorSH said:

 

@SpecialFNK says he has some - not "no" - power

 

Okay? I never accused anyone of saying he had "no" power. I expressed surprise that his raw power was in doubt. As @phillyphan21 just pointed out, his average home run distance was among the longest in the league. 

 

I think we're all on the same page now though. He has plenty of raw power, he just doesn't swing for the fences on every cut the way a lot of young hitters tend to do.

Link to post
Share on other sites

if he can have more fly balls/higher FB% I think he has a better chance at more HR. right now I would think he is going to be between 20 and 25, which is still good.

 

I don't think power is really the problem, where his problem is going to be against left handed pitching.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I would buy high here, assuming you're still somehow able to do so.  I watched a good chunk of his ABs in these early games, and they were mighty, mighty impressive.  His approach has always belied his years, but he's learning to elevate and drive the ball when the pitch allows for it, while still maintaining the patience and contact you'd expect from the mature approach.

 

Could be a very, very fun ride this year for his owners.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I know lots of advanced metrics have been included in this thread, some painting a positive picture, some indicating some doubt. 

I still think the one number that is most meaningful to me is 20.  Guys who hit the bigs at that age and perform at that level right out of the chute are rare. Personally, I see him defying some of the standard expectations of a linear progression and making geometric strides forward over the next year or two. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Okay? I never accused anyone of saying he had "no" power. I expressed surprise that his raw power was in doubt. As @phillyphan21 just pointed out, his average home run distance was among the longest in the league. 

 

I think we're all on the same page now though. He has plenty of raw power, he just doesn't swing for the fences on every cut the way a lot of young hitters tend to do.

 

It was a...lengthy...discussion last year revolving around SpecialFNK's assessment.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...