Nomar Mazara 2017 Outlook

[countseth 276]

Tbh, @taobball I think there are a handful of us that would gladly throw you $5 or something to publish your rankings and projections in a few documents and send em to us without posting here. 

 

Don't know if you care about that at all, and I really appreciate your commitment to open-source data. 

 

But considering the time you put into this and the quality of work, it could work out to a couple hundred $ should you choose to make your work pay-to-view so to speak. 

 

Either way, thanks for your input. 

[tootallball 192]

My biggest concern is him getting platooned. Hopefully the Rangers let him develop against lefties and don't write him off (See Conforto, Michael). Hopefully he shows some improvement because I can see it happening again with the Rangers fancying themselves as contenders. How's he looking this spring? Haven't seen much. 

[herschel 1,995]

anyone see how hes hitting this spring against lefties?  would think they would rather not platoon him, but its going to come down to how he hits them given the opportunity...

[joeg414 190]

3 hours ago, herschel said:

anyone see how hes hitting this spring against lefties?  would think they would rather not platoon him, but its going to come down to how he hits them given the opportunity...

MLB is showing 7/16  .438

[smeeze 6,171]

1 hour ago, joeg414 said:

MLB is showing 7/16  .438

 

Promising... small samples and everything included.

[fletch44 1,531]

He's looked good in the ABs I've seen. I think he's in for a big season.

[Sun Tzu 1,750]

He's looked good to me, too, and it's encouraging to see where he's hitting in the order to start the year.  I think he's ready to take another step forward this season...

[Chuckles 79]

I have nothing of real benefit to add other than he just LOOKS like a professional hitter!

[fletch44 1,531]

Savage. He's eating up some pretty good pitchers too. Kluber, Carrasco and DS.

[jdbob11 419]

Went with the speed of peraza tonight so of course Nomar jacks one lol

[aifan27 654]

I know it's only the first week of the season.....but are we witnessing the beginning of a breakout?

[DrizzleOnTop 61]

13 hours ago, aifan27 said:

I know it's only the first week of the season.....but are we witnessing the beginning of a breakout?

 

Hope so. Currently thinking of him as Randal Grichuk with a more professional approach. In fact, thinking of dropping Grichuk for him because Mazara's ABs look so damn good and I still don't think Grichuk can hit breaking balls. 

[Turkey Burgers 47]

18 minutes ago, DrizzleOnTop said:

 

Hope so. Currently thinking of him as Randal Grichuk with a more professional approach. In fact, thinking of dropping Grichuk for him because Mazara's ABs look so damn good and I still don't think Grichuk can hit breaking balls. 

 

I don't see Grichuk as the best comp, though I'd definitely rather have Mazara over Grichik for the time being.  He's much more likely to sustain a good batting average, but lacks Grichuk's raw power.   I worry that Mazara will drop way down in the lineup once Beltre is back.  But, I'm holding him for an extended period, regardless, to see what April/May bring.  He plays at a great ballpark in a strong lineup and has major talent.  If he could his .280 with 25 HRs, with say 80 RBI, that's quite a good value at his ADP.  Some day he will be a .300/30 HR guy, but probably not this year.

Edited April 6, 2017 by Turkey Burgers

[jb_power 3,511]

8 minutes ago, Turkey Burgers said:

 

I don't see Grichuk as the best comp, though I'd definitely rather have Mazara over Grichik for the time being.  He's much more likely to sustain a good batting average, but lacks Grichuk's raw power.   I worry that Mazara will drop way down in the lineup once Beltre is back.  But, I'm holding him for an extended period, regardless, to see what April/May bring.  He plays at a great ballpark in a strong lineup and has major talent.  If he could his .280 with 25 HRs, with say 80 RBI, that's quite a good value at his ADP.  Some day he will be a .300/30 HR guy, but probably not this year.

 

Agreed.  I think a better comp would be Marcell Ozuna.

 

[mjb03003 1,974]

I didn't realize Mazara's raw power was in doubt. I seem to recall him hitting some absolute moonshots last year as a 20 year old...

[Turkey Burgers 47]

7 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

I didn't realize Mazara's raw power was in doubt. I seem to recall him hitting some absolute moonshots last year as a 20 year old...

 

He has decent power, but his approach at the plate seems to suggest he will take the easy single, and doesn't sell out for power like a Grichuk or a Schimpf type.  It's a good thing.  Most of the stat nerds are guessing he's around 23.5 HRs this year.  I don't think anyone is going to be shocked if he develops a little ahead of schedule and hits a few more than that.

[VitorSH 212]

23 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

I didn't realize Mazara's raw power was in doubt. I seem to recall him hitting some absolute moonshots last year as a 20 year old...

 

@SpecialFNK says he has some - not "no" - power

[phillyphan21 772]

11 minutes ago, Turkey Burgers said:

 

He has decent power, but his approach at the plate seems to suggest he will take the easy single, and doesn't sell out for power like a Grichuk or a Schimpf type.  It's a good thing.  Most of the stat nerds are guessing he's around 23.5 HRs this year.  I don't think anyone is going to be shocked if he develops a little ahead of schedule and hits a few more than that.

 

That's a good way to describe him.  I'm gonna be nitpicky for a minute here and say his power is better than decent though.  Among guys with a minimum of 18 home runs last season, only three - CarGo, Stanton, and Story - had home runs with a greater average distance than Nomar's 415.8 feet, that number being tied with Moreland.  And two of those three hit the better part of their home runs at Coors.  

 

That said, you're absolutely right that he doesn't sell out for power.  He has the raw power to someday hit 30 home runs and the discipline to do it with a solid average. 

[mjb03003 1,974]

14 minutes ago, VitorSH said:

 

@SpecialFNK says he has some - not "no" - power

 

Okay? I never accused anyone of saying he had "no" power. I expressed surprise that his raw power was in doubt. As @phillyphan21 just pointed out, his average home run distance was among the longest in the league. 

 

I think we're all on the same page now though. He has plenty of raw power, he just doesn't swing for the fences on every cut the way a lot of young hitters tend to do.

[SpecialFNK 1,484]

if he can have more fly balls/higher FB% I think he has a better chance at more HR. right now I would think he is going to be between 20 and 25, which is still good.

 

I don't think power is really the problem, where his problem is going to be against left handed pitching.

[JFS179 3,772]

I would buy high here, assuming you're still somehow able to do so.  I watched a good chunk of his ABs in these early games, and they were mighty, mighty impressive.  His approach has always belied his years, but he's learning to elevate and drive the ball when the pitch allows for it, while still maintaining the patience and contact you'd expect from the mature approach.

 

Could be a very, very fun ride this year for his owners.

[wildvikestwins 12]

Kept Mazara for a 16th rounder in a 14 team league. Hope he continues and has a great year.

[treat88 615]

I know lots of advanced metrics have been included in this thread, some painting a positive picture, some indicating some doubt. 

I still think the one number that is most meaningful to me is 20.  Guys who hit the bigs at that age and perform at that level right out of the chute are rare. Personally, I see him defying some of the standard expectations of a linear progression and making geometric strides forward over the next year or two. 

[BMcP 8,611]

Nooooooooo....

 

Not the Mazara power debate!

[BMcP 8,611]

2 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Okay? I never accused anyone of saying he had "no" power. I expressed surprise that his raw power was in doubt. As @phillyphan21 just pointed out, his average home run distance was among the longest in the league. 

 

I think we're all on the same page now though. He has plenty of raw power, he just doesn't swing for the fences on every cut the way a lot of young hitters tend to do.

 

It was a...lengthy...discussion last year revolving around SpecialFNK's assessment.