Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Nomar Mazara 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 225
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

2 hours ago, treat88 said:

I know lots of advanced metrics have been included in this thread, some painting a positive picture, some indicating some doubt. 

I still think the one number that is most meaningful to me is 20.  Guys who hit the bigs at that age and perform at that level right out of the chute are rare. Personally, I see him defying some of the standard expectations of a linear progression and making geometric strides forward over the next year or two. 

 

I think his age is overrated.

the Jays had a top prospect who made his debut at 20, Travis Snider. he was the Jays #1 prospect and one of the top prospects in baseball. he had some early success but was also (like Mazara) a LH bat that struggled against LHP.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Travis-snider

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

I think his age is overrated.

the Jays had a top prospect who made his debut at 20, Travis Snider. he was the Jays #1 prospect and one of the top prospects in baseball. he had some early success but was also (like Mazara) a LH bat that struggled against LHP.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Travis-snider

 

 

 

 

I could be wrong for sure.

But I will take age of MLB debut as a predictor of success over most other metrics, even knowing its not infallible.

That's just me tho.  Folks can evaluate for themselves however they see fit.

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, treat88 said:

I could be wrong for sure.

But I will take age of MLB debut as a predictor of success over most other metrics, even knowing its not infallible.

That's just me tho.  Folks can evaluate for themselves however they see fit.

I think age could be part of it along with how the player is able to handle them self at such a young age.

another young player I remember was Lastings Milledge with the Mets, who made his debut at 21.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=lastings-milledge

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

I think age could be part of it along with how the player is able to handle them self at such a young age.

another young player I remember was Lastings Milledge with the Mets, who made his debut at 21.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=lastings-milledge

 

And Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle both debuted at 19.  Its easy to cherry pick players, you picked two busts I picked two legends.  We get it you missed out on Mazara in all your leagues so you are dying to find something wrong with him.  The kid is a very well put together ball player.  

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, jdbob11 said:

And Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle both debuted at 19.  Its easy to cherry pick players, you picked two busts I picked two legends.  We get it you missed out on Mazara in all your leagues so you are dying to find something wrong with him.  The kid is a very well put together ball player.  

 

it's not that I missed on Mazara, I'm just not confident in his ability for now and don't want to anoint him as the next big thing.

part of what has allowed him to debut at such a young age is that he didn't go to college/university and instead started his professional career in the minors at 17. he spent 4 years in the minors with 444 games so it's not like he accelerated through the minors quickly.

I want to see how he handles left handed pitching. if he can just be okay/acceptable then he has a lot of potential. last year I think that was his biggest issue (16- .234/.277/.270/.548).

for the future I think he has great potential and I'm not routing against him, I just need to see what he can do.

 

 

there are many top protects early to mid 20's that fail and most people forget about them. it's easier to remember the ones that worked out because they're regular players.

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

I think age could be part of it along with how the player is able to handle them self at such a young age.

another young player I remember was Lastings Milledge with the Mets, who made his debut at 21.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=lastings-milledge

 

 

 

 

Maybe I missed something but why are we only using age as a determining factor for comparisons? I'm just a little lost in this one. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Maybe I missed something but why are we only using age as a determining factor for comparisons? I'm just a little lost in this one. 

Earlier, I stated that age of MLB debut is one of the most predictive metrics for success. 

Since it's the Mazara thread, Special felt obligated to throw in a few young debuts that didn't pan out.

Apparently every yin must have its yang when it comes to Nomar. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, treat88 said:

Earlier, I stated that age of MLB debut is one of the most predictive metrics for success. 

Since it's the Mazara thread, Special felt obligated to throw in a few young debuts that didn't pan out.

Apparently every yin must have its yang when it comes to Nomar. 

 

it wouldn't be just a few young debuts that didn't pan out. I could be here all day naming players who debuted at a young age (early 20's) that didn't pan out. we don't typically remember them because they didn't pan out.

if Mazara had been drafted out of college and spent only a little time in the minors before debuting at 20 then I think that would be a better indication of future success, rather than 4 years/444 games in the minors. in this case 20 isn't that big of a deal.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

it wouldn't be just a few young debuts that didn't pan out. I could be here all day naming players who debuted at a young age (early 20's) that didn't pan out. we don't typically remember them because they didn't pan out.

if Mazara had been drafted out of college and spent only a little time in the minors before debuting at 20 then I think that would be a better indication of future success, rather than 4 years/444 games in the minors. in this case 20 isn't that big of a deal.

 

 

er-- I'd rather him have played against minor league professionals than college level talents. 20 is a big deal in any context. It doesn't necessarily have to be indicative of anything future, but it's impressive to make the bigs by 20. Period. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

er-- I'd rather him have played against minor league professionals than college level talents. 20 is a big deal in any context. It doesn't necessarily have to be indicative of anything future, but it's impressive to make the bigs by 20. Period. 

 

impressive sure but it's not the reason he would be successful going forward.

I agree with the bold. he had years of experience in the minors and the repetition that that gave him. if a player was drafted out of college and only spent a little time in the minors before debuting at say age 24 I would consider that a bigger deal than Mazara and his 444 minor league games before his debut.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

impressive sure but it's not the reason he would be successful going forward.

I agree with the bold. he had years of experience in the minors and the repetition that that gave him. if a player was drafted out of college and only spent a little time in the minors before debuting at say age 24 I would consider that a bigger deal than Mazara and his 444 minor league games before his debut.

 

 

Sure it's not a reason for anything. I'd never look at a players age and definitively say something, all it means is he's probably more likely to get better than if he were 28. But isn't indicative of anything, except for a perception of talent, which is important to some degree because it's being perceived for a reason. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Sure it's not a reason for anything. I'd never look at a players age and definitively say something, all it means is he's probably more likely to get better than if he were 28. But isn't indicative of anything, except for a perception of talent, which is important to some degree because it's being perceived for a reason. 

 

perception isn't always reality.

more than likely to get better at 20 is a lot easier to say than getting better at 28.

I'm more impressed by someone like Alex Bregman debuting at age 22 with only 146 minor league games.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

perception isn't always reality.

more than likely to get better at 20 is a lot easier to say than getting better at 28.

I'm more impressed by someone like Alex Bregman debuting at age 22 with only 146 minor league games.

Its pretty humorous how much you dont know about the game.  Had Bregman been drafted out of high school at age 18 he would have spent 4 years in the minors as well.  Mazara is head and shoulders a better hitter than Bregman. 

Edited by jdbob11
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

perception isn't always reality.

more than likely to get better at 20 is a lot easier to say than getting better at 28.

I'm more impressed by someone like Alex Bregman debuting at age 22 with only 146 minor league games.

 

Didn't say perception is reality, I said that the reasons for that perception are what are important. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

Its pretty humorous how much you dont know about the game.  Had Bregman been drafted out of high school at age 18 he would have spent 4 years in the minors as well.  Mazara is head and shoulders a better hitter than Bregman. 

 

pure speculation.

 

what's telling is the quick acceleration through the minors based on talent and production. it had nothing to do with his age as to why he made it to the majors quicker.

 

 

time will tell who is better, I would be betting on Bregman.

based on minor league numbers, Bregman was better,

Mazara - 444 games - .270    .353    .439    792

Bregman - 146 games - .300    .386    .503    889

 

.

Edited by SpecialFNK
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SpecialFNK said:

 

pure speculation.

 

what's telling is the quick acceleration through the minors based on talent and production. it had nothing to do with his age as to why he made it to the majors quicker.

 

 

.

100% does.  He was more developed by the time he got to the minors due to the college seasoning.  Facing college pitching is more advanced than facing kinds in A ball just out of high school.  A good college player like Bregman should only need one season in the minors, he didnt accelerate through the minors, he was right on the nose for the path a good player should be on.  Bryce Harper accelerated through the minors. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

it wouldn't be just a few young debuts that didn't pan out. I could be here all day naming players who debuted at a young age (early 20's) that didn't pan out. we don't typically remember them because they didn't pan out.

if Mazara had been drafted out of college and spent only a little time in the minors before debuting at 20 then I think that would be a better indication of future success, rather than 4 years/444 games in the minors. in this case 20 isn't that big of a deal.

 

This makes you sound a bit ignorant. The age of the debut is not that important in and of itself, but how many of those guys that you keep referring  to were as successful as Mazara was at 20 in MLB?

Go ahead, get your list together.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, let's not look at this as if the number 20 is being discussed in isolation of performance.  I think the age of debut does encapsulate multiple other measures, as guys who don't perform don't get promoted let alone promoted aggressively at young ages.  When a guy hits the bigs early it is because they are more talented than their age related peers.  Its not a guarantee of success, but I do believe the earlier a guy hits the Show the more likely they are to succeed, not because they are young, but because they are extremely talented by multiple measures which is summed up by their early debut.

And are we now saying that the number of minor league games played before MLB debut is somehow a negative indicator?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

100% does.  He was more developed by the time he got to the minors due to the college seasoning.  Facing college pitching is more advanced than facing kinds in A ball just out of high school.  A good college player like Bregman should only need one season in the minors, he didnt accelerate through the minors, he was right on the nose for the path a good player should be on.  Bryce Harper accelerated through the minors. 

 

most players spend 3 to 4 years in the minors, going from level to level spending roughly a year/season at each level. it's why you typically don't see players in their early 20's in the majors because they're spending the typical amount of time advancing through the system. Mazara spent the typical amount of time, he just got started at an earlier age than most.

facing any type of minor league pitching is better than facing kids in high school with some that might not even be drafted to professional baseball at all.

 

 

3 minutes ago, cs3 said:

This makes you sound a bit ignorant. The age of the debut is not that important in and of itself, but how many of those guys that you keep referring  to were as successful as Mazara was at 20 in MLB?

Go ahead, get your list together.

 

at least this is a better argument for Mazara, but it's not like he was a star.

good. .266    .324    .419    743

 

age isn't really the factor. he should have been good, he had 4 years/444 games in the minors to improve at each level as he faced better talent coming up. he just got started earlier because he didn't go to college. had he gone to college and was drafted older one could speculate he could have still spent the same amount of time in the minors developing. he has talent, but it's not like he had outstanding minor league numbers.

 

 

 

 

       
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...