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Nomar Mazara 2017 Outlook


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7 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

In dynasty leagues he feels like a top 10 bat

 

Trout, Harper, Betts, Arenado, Machado, Altuve, Seager, Correa, Turner, Rizzo, and quite a few more.

 

Keeps playing this way and we will see at the end of the season.

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As a Rangers fan and owner, this is one hell of a ride. When he was a prospect, there was never any question about his batting eye, all scouts agreed that he had an incredibly mature approach at the plate that was well beyond his years. The question was whether he could ever develop anything more than slightly above average power. Last season he put up some nice numbers, and he's looked very good in a limited sample size this year. I'm cautiously optimistic that he has taken the leap.

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34 minutes ago, GJDHouse said:

He's a big kid. I have no doubt he will hit 25-35 homers pretty much every year until he starts to decline in his 30's. Hell never hit 40 but he's good for 25+. 

Never say never. I could see a 40 homer season in his prime. He has a ton of raw power. 

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7 hours ago, bigbossman said:

Unbelievable! Was it part of a double steal or straight up???!

It was straight but there was no throw made by the catcher. There were two outs, Rangers up 5-0, and the ball was kind of in the dirt so he took the base standing up. 

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8 hours ago, treat88 said:

Nah, basically the same as a 26 yo college player after 4 seasons in the minors. He started too young and played too many games in the minors for 21 to matter. 

Lol. 

 

1639 minor league AB.

 

he still doesn't have good numbers against LHP, 2 for 12 (2 singles). if he can fix that I will be more impressed.

 

Edited by SpecialFNK
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2 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

1639 minor league AB.

 

he still doesn't have good numbers against LHP, 2 for 12 (2 singles). if he can fix that I will be more impressed.

 

The difficulties with LHP is a valid critique. 

The fact he amassed that many minor league ABs prior to the age of 20 is a positive indicator not a negative. 

To be able to play against professionals 3 to 5 years older than him and hold his own while making it to the bigs at an age most guys are still in HiA can,  in no coherent way,  be spun in to a negative. It is the primary leading indicator of how talented he is and how highly the organization views him.

You've made some valid points in this thread, but this just isn't one at all. 

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1 minute ago, treat88 said:

The difficulties with LHP is a valid critique. 

The fact he amassed that many minor league ABs prior to the age of 20 is a positive indicator not a negative. 

To be able to play against professionals 3 to 5 years older than him and hold his own while making it to the bigs at an age most guys are still in HiA can,  in no coherent way,  be spun in to a negative. It is the primary leading indicator of how talented he is and how highly the organization views him.

You've made some valid points in this thread, but this just isn't one at all. 

 

 

I don't want to say his age is not impressive, I just don't think it's the ultimate deciding factor in judging his talent and what he has done/is doing.

I would be more impressed with someone who went through the minor leagues quicker not needing the additional time. I think that is a better indicator of talent.

if Mazara was extremely talented as some perceive then he could have moved through the minors quicker? he spent parts of 4 years. that's typical and not really surprising.

 

http://minorleagueuniversity.blogspot.ca/2011/02/milb-life-how-long-until-youre-in-bigs.html

 

Quote

But assuming everything goes right, what's the timeline for a minor leaguer to make it to the Show? Is that even possible to determine since everyone's different?

Four years. In a game with countless factors and variables, four years is the exact scientifically calculated time frame allotted to every MiLB player.

Sure every case is different, but you are expected to make your Major League debut in your fourth year. You don't have to be an all-star at that point, or a starter, or even a mainstay in the Big League clubhouse- you just need to have made an appearance. Once that happens, you have a chance at a solid career.

For every second that goes by after that four-year deadline, however, your odds of making the Bigs decrease. With every year comes a fresh crop of young talent- and someone who's younger than you doesn't have to be better, they just have to be the same. If two players are of the same talent level, the edge always goes to the younger player.

Youth means upside, potential, and valuable time. After your four-year deadline passes, there's a draft class of young whipper snappers fast approaching in your rear view mirror who are on schedule to make their own four-year deadline.

Four years. Is it exact? No. Every year, players make their MLB debut before their fourth year, and players make it to the Majors after their fourth year- but it's the general rule. You don't explode upon the ticking of the final second of year four if you haven't made the Bigs yet, nor do you become a hopeless cause- it just becomes tougher.

Four years. That's a whole lot of bus rides, Subway sandwiches, and rundown motels- but it's the price you pay for a chance at limo rides, filet mignon, and Ritz Carltons. And more importantly, a dream.

 

Mazara started in the minors in 2012 with 54 games. he spent all of 2015 in the minors and then a handful of games in 2016. his path to the majors was typical for a player. his age factors in because he started his professional career at 17. had he gone to college maybe he still could have spent the same amount of time in the minors, elevating level to level, A to AA to AAA to the majors.

his age is still impressive but I don't think that's what should be focused on, and it shouldn't just be ignored that he spent a typical amount of time in the minors advancing through the different levels.

 

Mazara is more mature physically? what about mentally?  yes his age has to be seen as impressive, but I don't think that is ultimately what has determined why he's been able to do what he's done. mentally could be a factor. can he handle everything at this level at his age? I think a factor in why Lastings Milledge wasn't able to handle things was said to be his immaturity.

 

I feel hesitant to anoint Mazara as special because on his age because I have seen multiple other players reach the majors at a similar age and not turn into anything special.

 

 

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So you would have had to have seen him debut during his age 18 season to anoint him as "special" given the age he started playing professional ball is really what you are saying?  Do you think that is even realistic regardless of talent level? 

Number of ABs in the minors is more predictive of talent than age vs level of competition is the corollary there, right?

I just couldn't disagree more if that is your take. 

Give me the cohort of players whose MLB debut happens between 19 and 21 regardless of time in the minors and I strongly believe you will have one of the most successful collective groups of MLB player careers you can find.

Age of debut is not causative of success but it is absolutely correlated. 

Edited by treat88
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13 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

 

I don't want to say his age is not impressive, I just don't think it's the ultimate deciding factor in judging his talent and what he has done/is doing.

I would be more impressed with someone who went through the minor leagues quicker not needing the additional time. I think that is a better indicator of talent.

if Mazara was extremely talented as some perceive then he could have moved through the minors quicker? he spent parts of 4 years. that's typical and not really surprising.

 

http://minorleagueuniversity.blogspot.ca/2011/02/milb-life-how-long-until-youre-in-bigs.html

 

 

 

 

I don't think anyone's using his age as the deciding factor, or else the Byron Buxton thread would be filled with people saying the same things (he was 21 when he came up).  

 

It's just one of many points in his favor.  That's all anyone is saying.  There is very likely a correlation between age of debut and success in the Bigs.  The key word here is correlation.  It's not a hard and fast rule that someone that young will be successful.  But there is a correlation - look at the HOF and notice how many were in the Majors by the age of 22.  Of course, you have guys that fall off and aren't successful, but on average I'd expect someone that debuts at 21 to have greater success in the MLB than some that debuts at 25.    

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