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Nomar Mazara 2017 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

Are you intentionally ignoring the point?  Only 4% of players debut younger than 22 but 60% of the fantasy first round debuted under 22.  Do you grasp the concept that this suggests a correlation?

 

Saying that there are counter examples does not help you, there are counter examples to everything.

 

This is a statistical analysis.  Understanding probability is important.

 

..in 2016. 1 year.

look at the quote from earlier..

 

44 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

By comparison, there were 257 players who debuted last year -- of those 257, only 11 were 21 or younger (4%).

 

 

every year there is going to be a small percent of players debut at age 21 or younger.

 

debuting isn't the only issue. maintaining good numbers is more impressive, which is what the players he listed did. I've listed players that debuted young and did not become stars.

 

 

3 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

There is a relatively higher percentage chance of a player who debuts young becoming a superstar than one who does not.

 

 

that would have to mean of the players who debuted at 21 there was a higher number that became stars than the number that did not become stars. I don't agree that has happened. the stars are easy to name, most are household names.

 

 

these are youngest players in the league for each year, not just DEBUT.

 

from 2016

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/youngest-player-in-each-league/#At1wlFpvEbG8bEWf.97

Quote
AMERICAN LEAGUE
No Player, Pos. Team ORG Age
1 Roberto Osuna, rhp Toronto Blue Jays TOR 21.1
2 Carlos Correa, ss Houston Astros HOU 21.5
3 Luis Severino, rhp New York Yankees NYY 22.1
4 Rougned Odor, 2b Texas Rangers TEX 22.2
5 Byron Buxton, cf Minnesota Twins MIN 22.3
6 Francisco Lindor, ss Cleveland Indians CLE 22.4
7 Ketel Marte, ss Seattle Mariners SEA 22.5
8 Michael Feliz, rhp Houston Astros HOU 22.8
9 Luis Sardinas, util Seattle Mariners SEA 22.9
10 Miguel Sano, rf Minnesota Twins MIN 22.9

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Rk Player, Pos. Team ORG Age
1 Miguel Castro, rhp Colorado Rockies COL 21.3
2 Corey Seager, ss Los Angeles Dodgers LAD 21.9
3 Addison Russell, ss Chicago Cubs CHC 22.2
4 Aaron Nola, rhp Philadelphia Phillies PHI 22.8
5 Joe Ross, rhp Washington Nationals WAS 22.9
6 Luis Perdomo, rhp San Diego Padres SD 22.9
7 Brandon Finnegan, lhp Cincinnati Reds CIN 23.0
8 Kyle Schwarber, lf Chicago Cubs CHC 23.1
9 Michael Conforto, lf New York Mets NYM 23.1
10 Robert Stephenson, rhp Cincinnati Reds CIN 23.1

 

 

the same from 2012. bold/red are "stars" or even all star caliber players to date.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/the-youngest-players-in-each-full-season-league/

 

Quote
AMERICAN LEAGUE Rk Player Team DOB
1 Erasmo Ramirez Seattle Mariners 05/02/90
2 Henderson Alvarez Toronto Blue Jays 04/18/90
3 Brett Lawrie Toronto Blue Jays 01/18/90
4 Kelvin Herrera Kansas City Royals 12/31/89
5 Jesus Montero Seattle Mariners 11/28/89
6 Eric Hosmer Kansas City Royals 10/24/89
7 Tim Collins Kansas City Royals 08/21/89
8 Robbie Ross Texas Rangers 06/24/89
9 Matt Moore Tampa Bay Rays 06/18/89
10 Alexi Amarista Los Angeles Angels 04/06/89
 
NATIONAL LEAGUE Rk Player Team DOB
1 Jose Altuve Houston Astros 05/06/90
2 Starlin Castro Chicago Cubs 03/24/90
3 Randall Delgado Atlanta Braves 02/09/90
4 Tyler Chatwood Colorado Rockies 12/16/89
5 Tyler Pastornicky Atlanta Braves 12/13/89
6 Hector Sanchez San Francisco Giants 11/17/89
7 Freddy Galvis Philadelphia Phillies 11/14/89
8 Giancarlo Stanton Miami Marlins 11/08/89
9 Ruben Tejada New York Mets 10/27/89
10 Freddie Freeman Atlanta Braves 09/12/89
 

 

 

for 2013..

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/top-10-youngest-players/#RI4gb6CCRmug5brh.97

 

Quote
AMERICAN LEAGUE Rk Name DOB Team
1 Manny Machado 1992-07-06 Baltimore
2 Mike Trout 1991-08-07 Los Angeles
3 *Avisail Garcia 1991-06-12 Detroit
4 *Martin Perez 1991-04-04 Texas
5 Leury Garcia 1991-03-18 Texas
6 *Drew Hutchison 1990-08-22 Toronto
7 Joe Ortiz 1990-08-13 Texas
8 Carter Capps 1990-08-07 Seattle
9 Brandon Maurer 1990-07-03 Seattle
10 Salvador Perez 1990-05-10 Kansas City
 
NATIONAL LEAGUE Rk Name DOB Team
1 Bryce Harper 1992-10-16 Washington
2 Jose Fernandez 1992-07-31 Miami
3 Paco Rodriguez 1991-04-16 Los Angeles
4 Julio Teheran 1991-01-27 Atlanta
5 *Arodys Vizcaino 1990-11-13 Chicago
6 Shelby Miller 1990-10-10 St. Louis
7 Trevor Rosenthal 1990-05-29 St. Louis
8 *Henderson Alvarez 1990-04-18 Miami
9 Starlin Castro 1990-03-24 Chicago
10 Jean Segura 1990-03-17 Milwaukee
 

 

 

here is a list from 2005. these players debuted in 2005 at 21 or under.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2005-debuts.shtml

bold/red would be what I think would be considered stars or even all stars since 2005.

if one disagrees then let me know the disagreement.

 

Quote

Rk    Name
1    Felix Hernandez
2    Hayden Penn
3    Marcos Carvajal
4    Yorman Bazardo
5    Melky Cabrera
6    Matt Cain
7    Ryan Zimmerman
8    Pedro Lopez
9    Ambiorix Burgos
10    Prince Fielder
11    Jonathan Broxton
12    Brian McCann
13    Robert Andino
14    Scott Olsen
15    Jeff Francoeur
16    Jeremy Hermida
17    Josh Johnson
18    Andy Marte
19    Huston Street
20    Kyle Davies
21    Dana Eveland
22    Hanley Ramirez
23    Craig Hansen
24    Francisco Liriano
25    Brandon McCarthy
26    Joey Devine
27    Cla Meredith
28    Miguel Perez

 

same as above from 2007.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2007-debuts.shtml

Quote

Rk    Name
1    Justin Upton
2    Cameron Maybin
3    Phil Hughes
4    Billy Butler
5    Homer Bailey
6    Yovani Gallardo
7    Carlos Gomez
8    Sean Gallagher
9    Ross Detwiler
10    Jair Jurrjens
11    Franklin Morales
12    Asdrubal Cabrera
13    Joba Chamberlain
14    Rick van den Hurk
15    Troy Patton
16    John Danks

 

 

 

being young in the majors on it's own doesn't man you're going to be a star or even an all star.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

being young in the majors on it's own doesn't man you're going to be a star or even an all star.

 

 

Neither does being older.  What determines that is talent and Mazara has the talent. 

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16 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

..in 2016. 1 year.

look at the quote from earlier..

 

every year there is going to be a small percent of players debut at age 21 or younger.

 

Are you arguing with yourself?

 

Like you said, every year a small percentage (~4-5%) of the players debut younger than 21.  It is a small population of the data set.

 

Yet this small population accounts for a large percentage of the stars.

 

Just because you debut at < 22, does not mean you will be a star, but there is a correlation.  Hopefully you see that?  No?

 

 

16 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

debuting isn't the only issue. maintaining good numbers is more impressive, which is what the players he listed did. I've listed players that debuted young and did not become stars.

 

 

No one said it's the only issue, just that it is an indicator.  You are only arguing with a straw man if that is your point.  No one has ever suggested that every player who debuted young guaranteed that a player would become a star, only that it was an indicator.

 

Just like any other indicator.  Does every 1st round pick become an MLB player?  No, but it's better than being a 20th round pick.  Do you understand these concepts?

 

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2 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

I'm just saying that getting to the majors at 21 isn't that unique/special. maintaining good numbers at that age will be more telling and impressive.

 

he is off to a great start. in a redraft league I might be selling if one can get value based on what he's doing.

in a keeper league I would be all over him. I said even last year that in the future he could develop more into a great player.

 

 

We're doing this.  We're really sticking with this argument.  Screw it, burn the thread down.  

 

Getting to the majors at 21 is special.  http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/hitting/hitting-statistical-analysis/the-aging-curve-in-major-league-baseball/  

 

Note this only takes into account players who retired before 2016, but out of 10,000 plus players, 246 had at least 200 PA's before the age of 22.  That's minuscule.  On top of that, they had an average career length of 14 seasons.  Compare that to the average: the average player to accumulate at least 200 PA's in his career debuted at the age of 23.6 with a career length of 9.4 seasons.  I hope I don't have to explain that a player will typically only be able to have a long career if they're at the very least competent ball players.

 

But even if you ignore everything I just said, you've been blocking out the one thing everyone has been screaming at you.  We're talking about correlation here.  There is a correlation that a player that debuts younger will have more success.  That doesn't mean all of them will, and literally no one is saying Mazara will be great because he debuted at 21.  Again NO ONE IS SAYING MAZARA WILL BE GREAT SOLELY BECAUSE HE DEBUTED AT 21.  Just that there's a trend where younger call-ups are, on average, more successful than older call-ups.  And like all trends, you look at the entire picture, not just one data point.  So please, stop misrepresenting what people are saying about Mazara's age.  It is special for someone to come up as young as he did.  That's all people are pointing out.

 

Now, can we please get back to talking about Mazara the player and forget this bs age argument.  

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Here we go again...

 

#makemazarathreadgreatagain

 

On 4/7/2017 at 7:54 PM, amcsoldier said:

 

Don't encourage this. He will go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and just wear you down and the thread will become a barren wasteland of logical fallacies. #makemazarathreadgreatagain emerged for a reason.

 

 

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1 hour ago, FUM said:

For those in ESPN leagues note that after tonight's game Jose will gain 2B eligibility in addition to SS and OF.

Somehow this post is more relevant to Nomar Mazara's actual talent than the discussion that has taken place on the last three pages. 

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1 hour ago, jdbob11 said:

Neither does being older.  What determines that is talent and Mazara has the talent. 

 

I've never denied that he had talent.

I've said even back to last year that he has a bright future, if he does/improves XYZ.

one could argue every player in the majors has talent. even the players that went bust had talent. I would have to imagine every player that would debut at a young age had talent, but yet we have more of them that did not become stars than those that did become stars. that was the point in the lists I proved and the names I bold/red. there were more names black than red.

I've mentioned one player numerous times now. Travis Snider tore through the minors and debuted with the Jays at age 20. he had great talent. in 2009 he was #6 prospect in all of baseball. everything that has been said about Mazara was said about Snider.  in 2009 Snider was a star of the future (OMG Snider is going to be so great), except that didn't happen. one of his issues is the same one with Mazara, LHP. if Mazara wants to be a star he should improve on his left handed splits. current career in the majors vs LHP- 133 PA/ 123 AB - .228/.278/.260/.538. that's bad and has to improve.

forget age for that line, that has to get better.

 

 

 

 

 

53 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

.Again NO ONE IS SAYING MAZARA WILL BE GREAT SOLELY BECAUSE HE DEBUTED AT 21.  Just that there's a trend where younger call-ups are, on average, more successful than older call-ups.  And like all trends, you look at the entire picture, not just one data point.  So please, stop misrepresenting what people are saying about Mazara's age.  It is special for someone to come up as young as he did.  That's all people are pointing out.

 

 

 

this is the perception that I have seen since his debut last year.

OMG he is 21 and therefore he will be a star.

he is so great because he debuted at 21.

 

younger call ups are more successful than older (25+?) call ups, no doubt. but there are more younger call ups that are not successful than younger call ups that are successful. again that is my point. there is a smaller percent that become stars.

 

 

 

Edited by SpecialFNK
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1 minute ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

I've never denied that he had talent.

I've said even back to last year that he has a bright future, if he does/improves XYZ.

one could argue every player in the majors has talent. even the players that went bust had talent. I would have to imagine every player that would debut at a young age had talent, but yet we have more of them that did not become stars than those that did become stars. that was the point in the lists I proved and the names I bold/red. there were more names black than red.

I've mentioned one player numerous times now. Travis Snider tore through the minors and debuted with the Jays at age 20. he had great talent. in 2009 he was #6 prospect in all of baseball. everything that has been said about Mazara was said about Snider.  in 2009 Snider was a star of the future (OMG Snider is going to be so great), except that didn't happen. one of his issues is the same one with Mazara, LHP. if Mazara wants to be a star he should improve on his left handed splits. current career in the majors vs LHP- 133 PA/ 123 AB - .228/.278/.260/.538. that's bad and has to improve.

forget age for that line, that has to get better.

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is the perception that I have seen since his debut last year.

OMG he is 20 and therefore he will be a star.

he is so great because he debuted at 20.

 

younger call ups are more successful than older (25+?) call ups, no doubt. but there are more younger call ups that are not successful than younger call ups that are successful. again that is my point. there is a smaller percent that become stars.

 

 

 

#Mazarahasthetalent

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4 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

#Mazarahasthetalent

 

I can do this too.

 

#TravisSniderhadthetalenttoo

 

 

everything here is eerily similar to Snider in 2009. I remember the immense hype people would talk about. I had high hopes for Snider, and he was a disappointment.

 

 

.

Edited by SpecialFNK
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3 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

I can do this too.

 

#TravisSniderhadthetalenttoo

 

 

everything here is eerily similar to Snider in 2009. I remember the immense hype people would talk about. I had high hopes for Snider, and he was a disappointment.

 

#Mazarahasthetalent

#JustSayNoToSampleSizesOfOne

Edited by kenag122002
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3 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

I can do this too.

 

#TravisSniderhadthetalenttoo

 

 

everything here is eerily similar to Snider in 2009. I remember the immense hype people would talk about. I had high hopes for Snider, and he was a disappointment.

 

 

.

 

 

No it isn't.  Travis Snider never had near the success that Mazara has already had ... and it's not even close.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml

 

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6 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

I can do this too.

 

#TravisSniderhadthetalenttoo

 

 

everything here is eerily similar to Snider in 2009. I remember the immense hype people would talk about. I had high hopes for Snider, and he was a disappointment.

 

 

.

Do you just make stuff up?

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8 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

 

No it isn't.  Travis Snider never had near the success that Mazara has already had ... and it's not even close.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml

 

 

I never said he had the same "success". I said he had the same talent. the same thing that people were talking about last year when Mazara debuted at 21 I remember people saying about Snider when he debuted at 20.  I was a fan at the time and he is the first name that comes to mind when people get excited about the new shiny toy debuting at such a young age. maybe that's partly why I'm so hesitant to proclaim Mazara special.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Chuckles said:

Do you just make stuff up?

 

I didn't make up anything, not 1 thing.

 

 

 

.

Edited by SpecialFNK
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1 minute ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

I never said he had the same "success". I said he had the same talent. the same thing that people were talking about last year when Mazara debuted at 21 I remember people saying about Snider when he debuted at 20.  I was a fan at the time and he is the first name that comes to mind when people get excited about the new shiny toy debuting at such a young age.

 

 

 

I didn't make up anything, not 1 thing,

 

#JustSayNoToSampleSizesOfOne

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That 246/10000+ number that Phillyphan mentioned really sums up how rare the air Mazara is in is.

To be this age and perform well enough to accumulate that number of ABs is the elite of elite prospects.

I don't think typical progression curves apply to this type of talent.

Nothing is a sure thing, but if ever there was a prospect profile to bet the bank on, this is it. 

Edited by treat88
Clarity
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