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Billy Hamilton 2017 Outlook


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4 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

He is so enticing when hot but offers next to nothing during long stretches. In head to head to leagues in particular I see no need to own, nor other speed only players for that matter.  I think you need a lot of power to be a fantasy asset in 2017...

 

No need to own 50+ steals?

 

Uh, ok.

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52 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

 

No need to own 50+ steals?

 

Uh, ok.


Unless from a MI position in head to head weekly leagues, no.   When he's cold there's empty categories across the board.  A homer gets you three things at once.  Steals are overrated...

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1 hour ago, knuckleheads said:


Unless from a MI position in head to head weekly leagues, no.   When he's cold there's empty categories across the board.  A homer gets you three things at once.  Steals are overrated...

 

Agreed, steals can be overrated in h2h.  However your statement re:Hamilton was "no need to own" which is an absurd statement in any format that counts steals as a category.

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56 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Agreed, steals can be overrated in h2h.  However your statement re:Hamilton was "no need to own" which is an absurd statement in any format that counts steals as a category.

 

I stand by the statement minus the unique situation in which you clearly have more power than anyone else in the league and can make up for that deficit.  The manager in our league is 10-0 in steals, yet near the bottom in almost all the other offensive fantasy categories.  Yes, it's only one situation but clearly he's a good example of someone that hasn't built a team that suits owning a guy like Hamilton.

Fact is for all his speed Hamilton hasn't yet come close to scoring 100 runs.  His highest total is a paltry 72. It looks like he'll crack 100 runs aided by the big bats behind him but he's got a weak .290 obp which is as bad as you can get from a leadoff hitter.  If he was doing what a leadoff hitter should do (getting on base at a .350 clip) and scoring 120 runs then I would change my tune. 

     

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36 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

I stand by the statement minus the unique situation in which you clearly have more power than anyone else in the league and can make up for that deficit.  The manager in our league is 10-0 in steals, yet near the bottom in almost all the other offensive fantasy categories.  Yes, it's only one situation but clearly he's a good example of someone that hasn't built a team that suits owning a guy like Hamilton.

     

 

Well of course you would need to balance out your stats with power at other positions....but that is really not hard to do because HR power is much less scarce than steals.  Look at how many power bats came off the waiver wire this season.

 

I am still waiting on a good reason why a guy like Hamilton who can own a scarce category all by himself is somehow not worth owning.

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23 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Well of course you would need to balance out your stats with power at other positions....but that is really not hard to do because HR power is much less scarce than steals.  Look at how many power bats came off the waiver wire this season.

 

I am still waiting on a good reason why a guy like Hamilton who can own a scarce category all by himself is somehow not worth owning.

 

If you are in an active league with 11 other managers chasing the best bats around then grabbing as much power as you can is significant and you can't just give up one spot for a slap stick hitter with a sub. 300 obp.  In a head to head league (which is what I've been talking about) this can be painful.    

This debate is not new and I've owned Hamilton three times and it always ended in an eventual player cut.  As stated his career numbers are terrible outside of steals and it's difficult to make improvements outside of dumping him.  If he works for you then your welcomed to him.   However, I bet there are very few championship teams that actually drafted Hamilton on their squad at a top 100 price.  

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I really don't think you're intentionally trolling me, but your original statement was that there was "no need to own him," which is an absurd statement in any format where steals are a category.  Even if you are not a fan of Hamilton, that is not a rational way to view fantasy.  

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18 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

I really don't think you're intentionally trolling me, but your original statement was that there was "no need to own him," which is an absurd statement in any format where steals are a category.  Even if you are not a fan of Hamilton, that is not a rational way to view fantasy.  

 

That's BS on your part.  I am not trolling and it's a pretty obvious attempt on your part to state this when not actually debating anything yourself with numbers.   I gave numbers that imo would make him valuable.  He hasn't come close to reaching them.   You just have your mantra "absurd statement where steals are a category".   Fact is every year is the same thing.  He gets drafted, then dropped and sits on the waiver wire numerous times over the course of a fantasy league.  He's a drop, he's an add, he's a drop, he's an add.  Steals alone will never cut it and most managers know this.

Anyways, the "trolling card" bit has turned me off from discussing further with you.  Go ahead have your last say.  Enlighten me...

 

 

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^

knuckleheads, your entire viewpoint / argument is based entirely on YOUR league and it's settings

 

There are all kinds of leagues out there (Roto, H2H, points) and Hamilton's value varys greatly from league to league based on its settings and deepness.

 

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1 hour ago, jb_power said:

^

knuckleheads, your entire viewpoint / argument is based entirely on YOUR league and it's settings

 

There are all kinds of leagues out there (Roto, H2H, points) and Hamilton's value varys greatly from league to league based on its settings and deepness.

 

 

Yes and I stated specifically that I was referring to head to head leagues so your point is not taken here.   But as far as head to head leagues go it's fairly representative setup of other head to head leagues.  We have the extra two categories (walks and holds being the extra) in a 6 x 6 setting but this doesn't make a big difference in Hamilton's value.  I feel very comfortable with my assertions that Hamilton is not worth the roster spot based on very weak overall numbers.                 

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Hamilton is the JAy Bruce of speed....when he's hot he gets them in bunches and when he's cold he sucks out loud....in my roto league I balance my lineup to make up for his shortcomings and I forget about him for the season....but happy to be 1st in SBs with only 2 speedsters on my roster.

 

He has value - it is a hassle to balance but its there.  

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Is it crazy that I'm holding him in my dynasty league because I believe in the 120r/.290/.360/80sb bat will come out one of these years? He has some elite skills and they will all amplify his value if he can just get on base. Hamilton will be a perennial top 30 player if he overcomes his hitting woes and I don't want to miss out on those generationalines skills.

 

Moreover, I don't know if I've ever seen a guy stretch singles to doubles, and doubles to triples so easily l. My league counts singles, doubles, triples instead of hits so he's even more dangerous there.

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1 hour ago, Travis Burten said:

Is it crazy that I'm holding him in my dynasty league because I believe in the 120r/.290/.360/80sb bat will come out one of these years? He has some elite skills and they will all amplify his value if he can just get on base. Hamilton will be a perennial top 30 player if he overcomes his hitting woes and I don't want to miss out on those generationalines skills.

 

Moreover, I don't know if I've ever seen a guy stretch singles to doubles, and doubles to triples so easily l. My league counts singles, doubles, triples instead of hits so he's even more dangerous there.

 

Well yes, I think as time goes by it's less and less likely he will hit those kind of numbers. Year 5 and he hasn't come close to any of those numbers yet.   Why not start with something reasonable?  If you think those numbers are attainable then good luck to you. 

What he has accomplished is:  a .246 lifetime (.238 this year) average, a .296 OBP (.290 this year) and all of 59 career doubles (since you mentioned that) and surprisingly only 18 career triples which is not much more than his 14 career homers.

 

Yes, the man is fast...

 

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15 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

Actually kind of happy that there's an injury to explain his struggles here. I mean as long as its not a serious issue it says that he could come back and be valuable with a little rest.

 

Agreed.  They shoulda just DL'ed him from the jump.

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6 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

Well yes, I think as time goes by it's less and less likely he will hit those kind of numbers. Year 5 and he hasn't come close to any of those numbers yet.   Why not start with something reasonable?  If you think those numbers are attainable then good luck to you. 

What he has accomplished is:  a .246 lifetime (.238 this year) average, a .296 OBP (.290 this year) and all of 59 career doubles (since you mentioned that) and surprisingly only 18 career triples which is not much more than his 14 career homers.

 

Yes, the man is fast...

 

 

Swing changes have done worders for guys this year, you never know.

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16 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

 

Hamilton may be a mechanical change away from stardom

 

Of course you are saying this as he enters his 5th year of mlb ball plus another X amount of years of minor league ball.  His objective should be simple: hit the ball on the ground and look at a lot of pitches. Yet here he is with a sub .300 OBP and a teeny, tiny batting average. Doesn't seem to be sinking in but I bet he's been told to do this since he started playing as a kid. Perhaps he just can't do it.  Lots of speedsters can't hit so he wouldn't have been the first.

 

And of course the injuries...

 

 

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Last 15 Days: 7/44 (.159 AVG)  3 runs / zero HR's / zero RBI's / zero SB's   --  1 XBH, 14/47 (29.7%) K rate

 

Last 30 Days: 21/101 (.208 AVG) 14 runs / zero HR's / 4 RBI's / 9 SB's   --  3 XBH's, 30/109 (27.5%) K rate

 

It's amazing to me that owners hold this guy when he pretty much nukes every other ratio. For roto at least - any owner worth their salt should hold him for half a season to get his 30 SB's, then send him to someone else. Some people still think this guy is going to be a .300 hitter - despite no evidence to support it. Reminds me of Trea Turner's thread to begin the season. People see SB's and begin to value the guy like he's Mike Trout.

 

I'm sure it's a similar story in most roto leagues - the guy with him is running away in the SB's category, but towards the bottom in everything else. I sent him Justin Bour for Billy Hamilton and he turned it down. I should thank him at this point though - he can barely hit .250 as it is, certainly not going to do it with a thumb injury.

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