Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Billy Hamilton 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Bravesfan155 said:

Last 15 Days: 7/44 (.159 AVG)  3 runs / zero HR's / zero RBI's / zero SB's   --  1 XBH, 14/47 (29.7%) K rate

 

Last 30 Days: 21/101 (.208 AVG) 14 runs / zero HR's / 4 RBI's / 9 SB's   --  3 XBH's, 30/109 (27.5%) K rate

 

It's amazing to me that owners hold this guy when he pretty much nukes every other ratio. For roto at least - any owner worth their salt should hold him for half a season to get his 30 SB's, then send him to someone else. Some people still think this guy is going to be a .300 hitter - despite no evidence to support it. Reminds me of Trea Turner's thread to begin the season. People see SB's and begin to value the guy like he's Mike Trout.

 

I'm sure it's a similar story in most roto leagues - the guy with him is running away in the SB's category, but towards the bottom in everything else. I sent him Justin Bour for Billy Hamilton and he turned it down. I should thank him at this point though - he can barely hit .250 as it is, certainly not going to do it with a thumb injury.

 

The fact that an owner drafted too many SB does not negate the value of Billy's steals. That is his fault for not diversifying properly. He may never be a .300 hitting first rounder but health permitting 90+ Runs and 60+ steals has a hefty price tag, especially in roto. In case you hadn't noticed homers are up league wide, so there are quite a few Justin Bours but there are only a few Billy Hamiltons. That's not a knock on Bour, who is a fine player to own but scarcity affects price, that's just how it works. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 246
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

2 hours ago, Bravesfan155 said:

Last 15 Days: 7/44 (.159 AVG)  3 runs / zero HR's / zero RBI's / zero SB's   --  1 XBH, 14/47 (29.7%) K rate

 

Last 30 Days: 21/101 (.208 AVG) 14 runs / zero HR's / 4 RBI's / 9 SB's   --  3 XBH's, 30/109 (27.5%) K rate

 

It's amazing to me that owners hold this guy when he pretty much nukes every other ratio. For roto at least - any owner worth their salt should hold him for half a season to get his 30 SB's, then send him to someone else. Some people still think this guy is going to be a .300 hitter - despite no evidence to support it. Reminds me of Trea Turner's thread to begin the season. People see SB's and begin to value the guy like he's Mike Trout.

 

I'm sure it's a similar story in most roto leagues - the guy with him is running away in the SB's category, but towards the bottom in everything else. I sent him Justin Bour for Billy Hamilton and he turned it down. I should thank him at this point though - he can barely hit .250 as it is, certainly not going to do it with a thumb injury.

 

hard for us to know how much of this has just been the thumb, though

 

he's actually shown some really encouraging flashes with the bat in the past calendar year, late last year and then that awesome stretch about a month ago. but then he tends to hit slumps that are usually associated with some physical problem. of course part of that could be that he's just smaller and therefore more easily breakable than most pro athletes, so it may just keep happening that way forever. but i do feel like his hitting skills are trending up overall

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BleedRedsRed said:

That is his fault for not diversifying properly.

 

To make up for what Billy is doing to your other categories, you essentially have to be loaded with big time bats. There's no competitive (key word competitive) league that's going to allow that to happen. At a certain point, you have a huge lead in the steals category, you have to ship him off to allow your team to stop being dragged down by him and replace him with a guy that's going to help in the other categories. Otherwise, your at the end of July, you're leading stolen bases by 40+, so every stolen base he gives you does nothing to help get you closer to first, and he's still hitting .200 week in and week out. That's of no value to you.

 

He should be a guy everyone is looking to trade. You want to say Hamilton's price tag is higher than Justin Bour - by all means, go try to get a better deal. That's really irrelevant to the point i'm making. Regardless of who's on the other side of the trade, it's going to help both teams to make that trade. Both are getting help in categories they need help in. It's a trade that makes sense. But i guess some guys think he's going to turn into this .300 hitter stud and going to challenge Mike Trout for MVP. At the end of the year, when the owner has held him all year, and he's down in last place, but he won the stolen base category free and clear...congratulations i guess. I've seen a couple of Billy's AB's over the years - and he looks pretty bad to me. He looks like a minor leaguer who'd never see the majors if it weren't for his speed.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bravesfan155 said:

 

To make up for what Billy is doing to your other categories, you essentially have to be loaded with big time bats. There's no competitive (key word competitive) league that's going to allow that to happen. At a certain point, you have a huge lead in the steals category, you have to ship him off to allow your team to stop being dragged down by him and replace him with a guy that's going to help in the other categories. Otherwise, your at the end of July, you're leading stolen bases by 40+, so every stolen base he gives you does nothing to help get you closer to first, and he's still hitting .200 week in and week out. That's of no value to you.

 

He should be a guy everyone is looking to trade. You want to say Hamilton's price tag is higher than Justin Bour - by all means, go try to get a better deal. That's really irrelevant to the point i'm making. Regardless of who's on the other side of the trade, it's going to help both teams to make that trade. Both are getting help in categories they need help in. It's a trade that makes sense. But i guess some guys think he's going to turn into this .300 hitter stud and going to challenge Mike Trout for MVP. At the end of the year, when the owner has held him all year, and he's down in last place, but he won the stolen base category free and clear...congratulations i guess. I've seen a couple of Billy's AB's over the years - and he looks pretty bad to me. He looks like a minor leaguer who'd never see the majors if it weren't for his speed.

 

Look if the guy is running away in SB by a wide margin then he clearly has other speed guys on his team... That is a diversity of stat situation and I'm not saying trading Billy would be a bad idea but to trade off a player for less than his general market value out of a sense of urgency before the season is even halfway over is silly. Further to say that every team should use the strategy of "use his first half SB and flip him" is just flawed thinking. One guy with low HR and RBI can easily be compensated in these slugger happy times, if you draft a team with zero speed there's not as easy a fix. 

 

Bottom line is that Billy is what Billy is and if a team is in last place and put too much investment in to SB that's not Billy's fault, nor should it have an effect on his general trade value.

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

There's 2 separate points being intermingled:

 

1 hour ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

Look if the guy is running away in SB by a wide margin then he clearly has other speed guys on his team... That is a diversity of stat situation and I'm not saying trading Billy would be a bad idea

 

They guy does have some other speedsters as well. 4 of the 23 players who have contributed double digit stolen bases. 28+17+10+10. 92 total, 26 SB lead over the next closest at 66. I'm sure there are leagues out there where the only one running on his team is Hamilton - in which case your right, it wouldn't make sense to trade a guy who carrying one category for you single handedly. I sure hope for your sake Billy doesn't get hurt. But 4 of 23 doesn't seem that crazy to me - i'm sure there are just as many leagues where the guy that has him has a couple more as well. So that's the point i'm trying to make - if you have that lead in SB's, and you're suffering in the power category, it doesn't make any sense to me why you would want to stick with a guy who provides no value to your team anymore. Maybe not right now, but certainly in the next couple weeks, someone in that situation needs to begin to look at their options. I think you agree with that.

 

So moving on to the second point you brought up about his value:

 

1 hour ago, BleedRedsRed said:

but to trade off a player for less than his general market value out of a sense of urgency before the season is even halfway over is silly.

 

This goes back to my original point of guys seeing SB's and valuing the guy as if he's a superstar. No doubt about it - so far this season, with a .238 average and 28 SB's, Billy is valuable. But now we're getting down into .200 range and 3 extra base hits in a months time. Unless i'm blowing out the competition in HR's and RBI's in the same way the other manager is blowing out the competition in SB's, i'm going to have serious reservations about sending a power bat in exchange for Billy. Especially when, as you noted, other owners have been able to stack up on power guys off the waiver wire early this season and the competition is so much tougher in those categories. In my particular league, i feel like i have more power bats on my team this year than i've had in the last 10 years, and 2 guys are ahead of me in both those categories. Billy's poor hitting hurts his "general market value", especially this year.

 

The "sense of urgency" and "before the season is halfway over" part is mis-characterizing my words. My exact words were "hold him for half a season to get his 30 SB's, then send him to someone else".

 

1 hour ago, BleedRedsRed said:

Further to say that every team should use the strategy of "use his first half SB and flip him" is just flawed thinking. One guy with low HR and RBI can easily be compensated in these slugger happy times, if you draft a team with zero speed there's not as easy a fix. 

 

If a guy is able to be up at the top of their hitting categories this year in HR's, RBI's, and Average, with Billy on the team and taking up a lineup spot everyday, then sure. You don't have a need in any offensive category so why trade him. My feeling is - that's not the spot most owners are in.

 

1 hour ago, BleedRedsRed said:

Bottom line is that Billy is what Billy is and if a team is in last place and put too much investment in to SB that's not Billy's fault, nor should it have an effect on his general trade value.

 

I understand valuing guys based on where i'm at in the standings - i'm not sure what general trade value means. He's only as valuable to me as what stats he puts up in helping my team get to first place. He's one of these rare guys - really the only guy - where he's putting up insane lead leading numbers in one category, and absolutely nothing in 3 other categories. So at some point, if you're planning to reach first place, you have to get some balance.

Edited by Bravesfan155
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Bravesfan155 said:

If a guy is able to be up at the top of their hitting categories this year in HR's, RBI's, and Average, with Billy on the team and taking up a lineup spot everyday, then sure. You don't have a need in any offensive category so why trade him. My feeling is - that's not the spot most owners are in.

 

I think your feeling is wrong. I think most people who drafted Hamilton probably did so with the entire purpose of him carrying one cat so they could massively invest in the rest of their hitting, much the same way an owner might draft one elite closer early and play the sagnof game for saves. SB and SV are specialty cats and usually I assume people who draft extreme specialty players do so as a part of well thought out strategy.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Some people have to get past their man crushes here. Lots of ifs, ands and buts being used to justify holding a guy who might as well be swinging with a twig for all the improvement he has made in 5 years. Probably will have the same conversation in 2 years from now. Or at least every time he has a hot 2weeks.  Otis Nixon scoffs at Billy Hamilton.

Edited by knuckleheads
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

Some people have to get past their man crushes here. Lots of ifs, ands and buts being used to justify holding a guy who might as well be swinging with a twig for all the improvement he has made in 5 years. Probably will have the same conversation in 2 years from now. Or at least every time he has a hot 2weeks.  Otis Nixon scoffs at Billy Hamilton.

Justify holding a guy? This is pretty terrible advice if you're actually suggesting people drop this guy. He's the 37th overall player on ESPN player rater and 100th on Yahoo (at least in my Yahoo league). He's a huge asset for owners in most leagues and he can be flipped later in the year for whatever their needs are at that point.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Justify holding a guy? This is pretty terrible advice if you're actually suggesting people drop this guy. He's the 37th overall player on ESPN player rater and 100th on Yahoo (at least in my Yahoo league). He's a huge asset for owners in most leagues and he can be flipped later in the year for whatever their needs are at that point.

 

Player raters rankings overrate steals as everyone now knows and accepts.  I grant that the best part of owning a steals only guy like Hamilton is for trade bait in Roto settings. You have to hope you can convert that though to all the power you lost while rostering him though. Strategy is similar to selling off saves when you have a surplus there. Head to head not really similar although you can probably always find someone blinded by the stat. Not me though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

Some people have to get past their man crushes here. Lots of ifs, ands and buts being used to justify holding a guy who might as well be swinging with a twig for all the improvement he has made in 5 years. Probably will have the same conversation in 2 years from now. Or at least every time he has a hot 2weeks.  Otis Nixon scoffs at Billy Hamilton.

HORRIBLE ADVICE....really??? Why on gods green earth would anyone drop a guy who gets 60 plus sbs every year?? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, David Aames said:

HORRIBLE ADVICE....really??? Why on gods green earth would anyone drop a guy who gets 60 plus sbs every year?? 

 

Because I've been playing fantasy baseball for 17 years and he has nothing else to offer. Right now he's sitting on most people's benches...

Edited by knuckleheads
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

Because I've been playing fantasy baseball for 17 years and he has nothing else to offer. Right now he's sitting on most people's benches...

 

Which is where he belongs ATM.  You bench him when he's cold and fire him up when he's hot.  If you hate him, hang on to him and then trade him when he gets hot.  Dropping him for nothing just means a smarter, more patient owner picks him up and then he goes nuts with his epic multi-steal weeks.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Which is where he belongs ATM.  You bench him when he's cold and fire him up when he's hot.  If you hate him, hang on to him and then trade him when he gets hot.  Dropping him for nothing just means a smarter, more patient owner picks him up and then he goes nuts with his epic multi-steal weeks.  

 

That's an awful lot of sitting for someone basically ranked as a late 3rd rounder according to the player rater you mentioned.  I am expecting a heck of a lot more from that pick - like being a cornerstone of my lineup every day.  I also look for production across at least 4 out of the 5 categories. Historically, over his career  Hamilton has only given everyone one plus category.  This year perhaps two for the first time but with that sub .300 obp he's gotta hope the powerhouse behind him keeps hitting all those dingers.

 

Edited by knuckleheads
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

That's an awful lot of sitting for someone basically ranked as a late 3rd rounder according to the player rater you mentioned.  I am expecting a heck of a lot more from that pick - like being a cornerstone of my lineup every day.  I also look for production across at least 4 out of the 5 categories. Historically, over his career  Hamilton has only given everyone one plus category.  This year perhaps two for the first time but with that sub .300 obp he's gotta hope the powerhouse behind him keeps hitting all those dingers.

 

Nothing you are posting in this thread is making any logical sense so why don't you drop him and focus on your 18th year of fantasy baseball without him on your roster.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Nothing you are posting in this thread is making any logical sense so why don't you drop him and focus on your 18th year of fantasy baseball without him on your roster.

 

Indeed I will. Enjoy your stolen base championship...

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

Indeed I will. Enjoy your stolen base championship...

you really are a knucklehead

 

if you drafted Billy you have to ride out those hot/cold stretches ... you can't just drop him.

 

Billly was drafted anywhere from late 40's to high 60's (4th-6th round)

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

you really are a knucklehead

 

if you drafted Billy you have to ride out those hot/cold stretches ... you can't just drop him.

 

Billly was drafted anywhere from late 40's to high 60's (4th-6th round)

 

Haha...nice one.  Trying to be original because I just never heard that one before.   

First of all I never said to drop him so reread my comment carefully before getting your Hamilton panties in a bunch.

As for the ranking the previous dude mentioned Hamilton's player rater rating as a way to justify his fantasy value so if you think it's ridiculous then direct it towards him.  I rather agree with you that it is.   However, 4th to 6th rounders haven't gotten their draft worth either so whoever took the plunge then probably isn't too happy themselves.  

 

So how many hot stretches does a guy batting .230 actually (on base .300) actually have???    

Edited by knuckleheads
Link to post
Share on other sites

last 30 days Hamilton has tanked it up pretty good.  And he's not even running much any longer with all of 5 sb.  This is behind Turner's 14 as well as numerous other guys  as well over that time. What else?  He's managed to score 11 runs (Aaron Judge in comparison almost triples that with 31).  

So if this guy isn't hitting, and isn't taking walks, and isn't scoring runs and worst of all, not blowing away the competition in steals, what exactly is he good for?  Oh he did pop his 2nd homer of the year.      

 

If he doesn't Vince Coleman up his hitting stats up pretty soon he's going to cost a lot of guys a shot at a title.  It's been 5 years already so...

Link to post
Share on other sites

He's been hitting a bit better over the last week or so, but the perplexing thing is that I've seen him on first base and never even attempting steals. Sometimes when guys aren't stealing its a series of unusual circumstances (runner ahead of them, they get on with 2 outs and batter swings early, they get a good jump only to have a ball hit foul, etc). In Hamilton's case, he's barely trying. Not sure if he's playing through some sort of minor leg injury or something or just not feeling it.

 

Steals tend to come in bursts, so not choice but to keep running him out there, but man is it hard when these stretches happen.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

last 30 days Hamilton has tanked it up pretty good.  And he's not even running much any longer with all of 5 sb.  This is behind Turner's 14 as well as numerous other guys  as well over that time. What else?  He's managed to score 11 runs (Aaron Judge in comparison almost triples that with 31).  

So if this guy isn't hitting, and isn't taking walks, and isn't scoring runs and worst of all, not blowing away the competition in steals, what exactly is he good for?  Oh he did pop his 2nd homer of the year.      

 

If he doesn't Vince Coleman up his hitting stats up pretty soon he's going to cost a lot of guys a shot at a title.  It's been 5 years already so...

It's pretty clear your hate of Billy is astronomical, but realistically speaking, owners of Billy expected this and most likely planned/drafted/rostered accordingly. 

 

To consider Billy a bust and unownable/unrosterable is just wrong. On Yahoo's standard 5x5 roto player rater he WAS pre-ranked 77th and is currently ranked 129th, including his recent slump the last few weeks his owners are currently suffering through. This is what, a 4 to 5 round difference in draft day price? For the guy leading the league in SBs? Which is the entire reason why we drafted him in the first place? 

 

**Fact Check** I guess he isn't leading anymore after Trea's 4 SB day yesterday, but remember the premium price that was paid to acquire Trea this year. First round in most leagues. Early 2nd if he fell. 

 

There are far more players pre-ranked HIGHER than Billy that is offering far less production. Machado. Miguel. Odor. Polanco. Schwarber. He also has remained healthy, unlike others drafted way before him. Donaldson. Braun. Pollock. Yoenis. Beltre. And I'll also throw Marte's name in here as well. 

 

Billy is pretty much doing what his owners expected. 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, JNR0110 said:

It's pretty clear your hate of Billy is astronomical, but realistically speaking, owners of Billy expected this and most likely planned/drafted/rostered accordingly. 

 

To consider Billy a bust and unownable/unrosterable is just wrong. On Yahoo's standard 5x5 roto player rater he WAS pre-ranked 77th and is currently ranked 129th, including his recent slump the last few weeks his owners are currently suffering through. This is what, a 4 to 5 round difference in draft day price? For the guy leading the league in SBs? Which is the entire reason why we drafted him in the first place? 

 

**Fact Check** I guess he isn't leading anymore after Trea's 4 SB day yesterday, but remember the premium price that was paid to acquire Trea this year. First round in most leagues. Early 2nd if he fell. 

 

There are far more players pre-ranked HIGHER than Billy that is offering far less production. Machado. Miguel. Odor. Polanco. Schwarber. He also has remained healthy, unlike others drafted way before him. Donaldson. Braun. Pollock. Yoenis. Beltre. And I'll also throw Marte's name in here as well. 

 

Billy is pretty much doing what his owners expected. 

 

 

 

 

No hate for any player but yes he's a bust based on draft price (and forget about ranks because when it comes to steals -only guy it's just not accurate).  And actually if you read the comments on here from Hamilton owners you wouldn't say that he's doing what is expected because everyone always drafts him hoping that he turns into that modern day Vince Coleman.  It's all hope and hype for Hamilton but it's been a long time for it.  

If he did the Coleman think then that WOULD justify his ranking (of course the rankings would have him as a second rounder then but at least he would be super in two categories (steals and runs) and ok in a third (batting average)).   He's only had a bit of consistency over a short period of time.

Trea Turner is worth the price of admission.  I don't have to explain the difference there.  Hamilton is closer to Dyson than he is Turner... 
 

Edited by knuckleheads
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...