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Billy Hamilton 2017 Outlook


tywalson
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46 minutes ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

Statistics and player value algorithms? Just more FAKE NEWS.

 

Here's some facts Donald:  Over the last 3 years every 12 team league I've been in has at one time or another seen Hamilton dropped and sitting on the FA wire for a lengthy period of time.  Every league, every year which is certainly not befitted a man of such high value.  However, it is still true...

 

This year I owned him and he was ranked where he generally is but just couldn't take the crappy batting skills (which would have any other player dropped to the minors) for the sell out of some steals.  So  in spite of the healthy player rankings and ratings I decided I would dump him for his much better producing teammate Schebler who btw was somehow ranked about 100 spots lower than Hamilton.  It made no sense but obviously knew that these rankings skew stolen base values for players with zip power.  Needless to say it was one of my best moves of the year... 

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3 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

Here's some facts Donald:  Over the last 3 years every 12 team league I've been in has at one time or another seen Hamilton dropped and sitting on the FA wire for a lengthy period of time.  Every league, every year which is certainly not befitted a man of such high value.  However, it is still true...

 

This year I owned him and he was ranked where he generally is but just couldn't take the crappy batting skills (which would have any other player dropped to the minors) for the sell out of some steals.  So  in spite of the healthy player rankings and ratings I decided I would dump him for his much better producing teammate Schebler who btw was somehow ranked about 100 spots lower than Hamilton.  It made no sense but obviously knew that these rankings skew stolen base values for players with zip power.  Needless to say it was one of my best moves of the year... 

 

Schebler is essentially Hamilton with a reversal in SB for HR. Schebler has 75 R/RBI, 23 HR/SB and .257. Hamilton has 69 R/RBI 35 HR/SB and .242. I'm not sure how much different they really are - just the KIND of stats they provide. And you can easily find many other Scheblers on the wire that provide that kind of power than finding other Hamilton's with that kind of speed. Discussing the dropping of Hamilton for Schebler is for BC. But I'll add this. Currently there are 14 players with 20+ HR and there are 4 players with 20+ SB.

 

 

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1 hour ago, JNR0110 said:

 

Schebler is essentially Hamilton with a reversal in SB for HR. Schebler has 75 R/RBI, 23 HR/SB and .257. Hamilton has 69 R/RBI 35 HR/SB and .242. I'm not sure how much different they really are - just the KIND of stats they provide. And you can easily find many other Scheblers on the wire that provide that kind of power than finding other Hamilton's with that kind of speed. Discussing the dropping of Hamilton for Schebler is for BC. But I'll add this. Currently there are 14 players with 20+ HR and there are 4 players with 20+ SB.

 

 

 

Well finally at least a post that presence an argument instead of a personal comment.  However, I disagree that Hamilton has more fantasy value then Schebler or that they are essentially the reversal of each other because:    

 

1) Schebler doesn't have to do anything different to improve his future value as long as he keeps doing what he is doing now.  The low runs and ribbies aren't a byproduct of anything he's done because sometimes it just happens that way.  However, if he simply keeps it up what he doing all those numbers will increase across the board. Hamilton on the other hand needs vast improvement with his batting eye and hitting skills.  

 

2) The fact that homers are up in MLB actually means that it's more difficult to utilize Hamilton as he represents a bigger gap to make up in the power numbers. He would be much more valuable if the league wasn't hitting as many homers. 

 

3) And of course homers are just more valuable than steals as you get the three categories with one hit.

 

Essentially my view is that if you lead the league in homers you are likely to be near the top in ribbies and runs.   
    

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2 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

Well finally at least a post that presence an argument instead of a personal comment.  However, I disagree that Hamilton has more fantasy value then Schebler or that they are essentially the reversal of each other because:    

 

1) Schebler doesn't have to do anything different to improve his future value as long as he keeps doing what he is doing now.  The low runs and ribbies aren't a byproduct of anything he's done because sometimes it just happens that way.  However, if he simply keeps it up what he doing all those numbers will increase across the board. Hamilton on the other hand needs vast improvement with his batting eye and hitting skills.  

 

2) The fact that homers are up in MLB actually means that it's more difficult to utilize Hamilton as he represents a bigger gap to make up in the power numbers. He would be much more valuable if the league wasn't hitting as many homers. 

 

3) And of course homers are just more valuable than steals as you get the three categories with one hit.

 

Essentially my view is that if you lead the league in homers you are likely to be near the top in ribbies and runs.   
    

Great debate - basically the only teams that can suffer Billy's long cold streaks are teams with significant power hitters to offset his uselessness when not stealing.

 

Luckily I have Dee Gordon so if need be Billy can be benched indefinitely  Dee Gordon is Billy just with a high batting average and his cold steaks dont last as long as Billy's.  Also the problem with Billy is that there are two other players right now:  Trea Turner and Dee Gordon who do the one thing Billy is good at  and also provide you with a solid BA.

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This is the first year I have owned Billy Hamilton and I have long railed and still believe that he's not a good baseball player. That said, if correctly deployed, he IS a valuable fantasy asset (Roto more than H2H), but REQUIRES that your team be effectively built to utilize his talents.

 

5 tool players are expensive. 4 tool players (BA/R/HR/RBI) are less expensive. 3 tool players (R/HR/RBI) are fairly readily available. If you combine Billy with a sizeable group of the aforementioned 4 & 3 tool players and 1-2 5-cat guys, it can be extremely effective. Hamilton essentially allows you to acquire (or draft) guys at other positions that are discounted based solely on their lack of speed (Cespedes is a good example). He is best if combined with a player who provides pop and a non-traditional pop position (think Cano or Murphy).

 

This comes with risk as it requires a specific team build and leaves you really in a lurch if Hamilton goes down with an injury. Tricky strategy to execute, but it can and does work.

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8 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

This is the first year I have owned Billy Hamilton and I have long railed and still believe that he's not a good baseball player. That said, if correctly deployed, he IS a valuable fantasy asset (Roto more than H2H), but REQUIRES that your team be effectively built to utilize his talents.

 

5 tool players are expensive. 4 tool players (BA/R/HR/RBI) are less expensive. 3 tool players (R/HR/RBI) are fairly readily available. If you combine Billy with a sizeable group of the aforementioned 4 & 3 tool players and 1-2 5-cat guys, it can be extremely effective. Hamilton essentially allows you to acquire (or draft) guys at other positions that are discounted based solely on their lack of speed (Cespedes is a good example). He is best if combined with a player who provides pop and a non-traditional pop position (think Cano or Murphy).

 

This comes with risk as it requires a specific team build and leaves you really in a lurch if Hamilton goes down with an injury. Tricky strategy to execute, but it can and does work.

 

Good analysis.  I always thought he paired well with power oriented middle infielders too.

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24 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

This is the first year I have owned Billy Hamilton and I have long railed and still believe that he's not a good baseball player. That said, if correctly deployed, he IS a valuable fantasy asset (Roto more than H2H), but REQUIRES that your team be effectively built to utilize his talents.

 

5 tool players are expensive. 4 tool players (BA/R/HR/RBI) are less expensive. 3 tool players (R/HR/RBI) are fairly readily available. If you combine Billy with a sizeable group of the aforementioned 4 & 3 tool players and 1-2 5-cat guys, it can be extremely effective. Hamilton essentially allows you to acquire (or draft) guys at other positions that are discounted based solely on their lack of speed (Cespedes is a good example). He is best if combined with a player who provides pop and a non-traditional pop position (think Cano or Murphy).

 

This comes with risk as it requires a specific team build and leaves you really in a lurch if Hamilton goes down with an injury. Tricky strategy to execute, but it can and does work.

 

Spot on. I'm essentially at the top in all the offensive categories in my standard roto league because I've been able to pick up several 3 tool players off waivers - Bour, Smoak, Healy, Valenica, Gyorko paired with my core of Harper/Freeman/Sano. Hamilton is essentially single-handedly carrying my team in the steals category while being a top contributor in runs as well. He's also been the only guy on my team people have asked about in trade offers and he was extremely affordable ($17) in my standard auction draft. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Weekday Warrior said:

 

Good analysis.  I always thought he paired well with power oriented middle infielders too.

 

This was the point I made previously that Hamilton would be extremely useful on teams that were lucky enough to be loaded with power.    

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11 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

This was the point I made previously that Hamilton would be extremely useful on teams that were lucky enough to be loaded with power.    

 

Sure, but it also demonstrative that  power is something that readily becomes available on the wire over the course of the season. Speed, not so much. Case in point my team was middling in homers and RBI after the draft but I was able to snatch a bunch of sluggers in the FA pool over the course of the season without having to worry about speed. I agree that Billy is much less valuable in h2h though. 

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19 hours ago, JetsAwesome said:

Great debate - basically the only teams that can suffer Billy's long cold streaks are teams with significant power hitters to offset his uselessness when not stealing.

 

Luckily I have Dee Gordon so if need be Billy can be benched indefinitely  Dee Gordon is Billy just with a high batting average and his cold steaks dont last as long as Billy's.  Also the problem with Billy is that there are two other players right now:  Trea Turner and Dee Gordon who do the one thing Billy is good at  and also provide you with a solid BA.

 

You can scratch Turner off this list for now.

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24 minutes ago, Purple Hippo said:

 

Sure, but it also demonstrative that  power is something that readily becomes available on the wire over the course of the season. Speed, not so much. Case in point my team was middling in homers and RBI after the draft but I was able to snatch a bunch of sluggers in the FA pool over the course of the season without having to worry about speed. I agree that Billy is much less valuable in h2h though. 

 

However, doesn't it also make sense if the league as a whole is hitting more homers then owning Hamilton just means a bigger deficit to make up?  That he would have more value if the players hit less homers?

Assuming everyone in your league is active and adding players as well you have to hope you can add enough power to make up for this kind of player.  I don't think it's only about partnering him up with a power hitting 2b any longer, but partnering him up with a whole squad of players that can hit at least 25 - 40 homers this year.   Yes, there is more power than ever before so you gotta stock up.     

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31 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

However, doesn't it also make sense if the league as a whole is hitting more homers then owning Hamilton just means a bigger deficit to make up?  That he would have more value if the players hit less homers?

Assuming everyone in your league is active and adding players as well you have to hope you can add enough power to make up for this kind of player.  I don't think it's only about partnering him up with a power hitting 2b any longer, but partnering him up with a whole squad of players that can hit at least 25 - 40 homers this year.   Yes, there is more power than ever before so you gotta stock up.     

 

Yes, I see your point and it makes more sense in h2h than roto. In roto when you have Hamilton you almost automatically have a +10 to +12 point advantage in the steals category which gives you a huge cushion and more wiggle room to be weaker in BA/HR/RBI. In h2h you can punt steals and still have a very good chance of winning every week (and can less afford to be weaker in 3 categories). 

 

Edited by Purple Hippo
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6 hours ago, Purple Hippo said:

 

Sure, but it also demonstrative that  power is something that readily becomes available on the wire over the course of the season. Speed, not so much. Case in point my team was middling in homers and RBI after the draft but I was able to snatch a bunch of sluggers in the FA pool over the course of the season without having to worry about speed. I agree that Billy is much less valuable in h2h though. 

I would think the reverse is truer in that he is more valuable in H2H. He can carry a team in SB every week. Finding power isn't that hard either ij the draft or off the WW. Finding speed is just more difficult at least for me. I usually rank top 3 in r/hr/rbi but bottom 3 in sb year after year.

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6 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

I would think the reverse is truer in that he is more valuable in H2H. He can carry a team in SB every week. Finding power isn't that hard either ij the draft or off the WW. Finding speed is just more difficult at least for me. I usually rank top 3 in r/hr/rbi but bottom 3 in sb year after year.

 

 

Nah, definitely better in roto.  I have him on my squad just to carry SB and he's done that maybe 4/12 weeks.  So when he's not winning that one cat by himself for 8 weeks, and his runs are usually generated by his ability to steal sometimes 2nd and 3rd, then you're left with a giant vulnerability in your lineup for 8 weeks.

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14 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

I would think the reverse is truer in that he is more valuable in H2H. He can carry a team in SB every week. Finding power isn't that hard either ij the draft or off the WW. Finding speed is just more difficult at least for me. I usually rank top 3 in r/hr/rbi but bottom 3 in sb year after year.

 

He tends to steal in bunches so you can go weeks at a time with no or little steals in h2h. 

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Here are his SB totals every week so far...

2/3/4/1/9/0/4/3/2/0/1/2/2

 

Im not so sure he is the best fit for H2H but here is my example....I have him in one 12 team H2H and so far i am 7-3-2 in the SB cat with a total of 57 SB (Billy has 33 and i have only had him in the lineup for 22 of those bags). Billy is the only speed guy i have but have logged a handful of SBs from guys like Brantley, Lemahieu, Shaw, D Santana, H Perez, Peraza etc (havent had or held these guys all year). In my league it takes an average of 4-5 steals every week to win, Billy has provided fairly consistent 2-3 SB each week so i have only needed 1 or 2 from other guys in the lineup. My normal routine is to let Billy start the first 3-4 games (depending on matchups) and if i get a few from him he rides the pine the rest of the week. Im not sure that is worth what i paid for him but then again, i havent had to chase multiple other roster spots with a weak bat and SB potential only to leave them in all week to hopefully get 1 or 2 bags.

 

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1 minute ago, arthurpete said:

Here are his SB totals every week so far...

2/3/4/1/9/0/4/3/2/0/1/2/2

 

Im not so sure he is the best fit for H2H but here is my example....I have him in one 12 team H2H and so far i am 7-3-2 in the SB cat with a total of 57 SB (Billy has 33 and i have only had him in the lineup for 22 of those bags). Billy is the only speed guy i have but have logged a handful of SBs from guys like Brantley, Lemahieu, Shaw, D Santana, H Perez, Peraza etc (havent had or held these guys all year). In my league it takes an average of 4-5 steals every week to win, Billy has provided fairly consistent 2-3 SB each week so i have only needed 1 or 2 from other guys in the lineup. My normal routine is to let Billy start the first 3-4 games (depending on matchups) and if i get a few from him he rides the pine the rest of the week. Im not sure that is worth what i paid for him but then again, i havent had to chase multiple other roster spots with a weak bat and SB potential only to leave them in all week to hopefully get 1 or 2 bags.

 

 

This is exactly what I do. He is solid value even as a pile of crap right now because he can notch you the steals. 

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1 hour ago, Travis Burten said:

 

This is exactly what I do. He is solid value even as a pile of crap right now because he can notch you the steals. 

 

^^ This, as well. I prefer owning him in H2H over Roto, as long as you can change your lineups dail y. Having the option to play him or bench him towards the end of the week is way more valuable than having to stomach him on an everyday basis.  Based on my opponent in H2H, I sometimes sit him to start the week and then don't wind up needing to use him at all, depending on how the offensive categories shake out.

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6 hours ago, Low and Away said:

I would think the reverse is truer in that he is more valuable in H2H. He can carry a team in SB every week. Finding power isn't that hard either ij the draft or off the WW. Finding speed is just more difficult at least for me. I usually rank top 3 in r/hr/rbi but bottom 3 in sb year after year.

 

The fact that you usually rank in the top 3 in r/hr/rbi's (three categories) seems to me a good reason not to own Hamilton in a roto league.  H2H though he definitely has less value as per the reasons the others have given.   

People keep adding "if he ever" with Hamilton and I've always agreed that "If he ever" hit .280  and took more walks his fantasy value would be exceptional.  At least then you would have 3 category value with two of them (runs and sb) being elite.   But that hasn't occurred after 5 years yet... 

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