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Max Scherzer 2017 Outlook

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49 minutes ago, jwblue said:

Personally too much risk for my taste where I know he will be drafted.

How? The guy has 5 years of 200+Ks, 4 years of 200+ IP, and has a 3.09ERA/2.96FIP/3.15xFIP in 164GS. He has an 89-34 over 1079IP. 10.70K/9 2.24BB/9 since 2012.

Since 2012:
1st in W
2nd in GS
2nd in IP
3rd in K/9
13th in ERA (by the way, Kershaw has a 2.02ERA since 2012 - 1043IP... holy smokes)
3rd in K-BB%
4th in WHIP
4th in SIERA
1st in SO (not even close... he has 1283, Kershaw at 2nd has 1173)
2nd in WAR for you WAR lovers


The guy is amazing. There's a legit argument to be made that he's a late 1st rounder/should be taken right after Kershaw. 

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Please God let this "stress fracture on his pitching hand" be just an excuse to avoid the WBC.



NL Cy Young Award winner Scherzer injured a finger on his pitching hand and will miss the World Baseball Classic. The Washington Nationals announced Monday on Twitter that their star right-hander has a stress fracture in the knuckle of his right ring finger. The team said the ongoing rehabilitation will keep Scherzer off the U.S. team at the WBC, which is in March, but he is still ''expected to be a full participant'' at spring training, which starts next month. Scherzer went 20-7 with a 2.96 ERA and 284 strikeouts last season, including a record-tying 20 in one game, for the NL East champion Nationals, becoming the sixth pitcher in major league history to win AL and NL Cy Youngs.


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3 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Usually guys come into camp in the greatest shape of their lives and spewing positivity so when a guy says this you can't help but be a little concerned




How often do players hint at anything negative coming into a season?  NEVER.

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I think it's more likely he missses a start or two than he has a debilitating deficiency for the entirety of the season. I do adjust values slightly because at that level the margin of error for players or margin between players is razor thin. I'm probably still taking him SP2, but maybe I take him much closer to Bumgarner. 

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The good news is there's 5-6 weeks before opening day. The bad news is these finger type injuries can linger and become a real nuisance. Certainly not as bad an elbow or shoulder issue, but not ideal at all. You don't want him hurting his elbow/shoulder by trying to compensate for a bum finger. I could see bumping him down just a tad, but I wouldn't get too worked up about the issue (yet).

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