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Mitch Haniger 2017 Outlook


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mariners dealing seth smith to baltimore for gallardo certainly appears to open up RF for haniger on a full-time basis, unless he falls on his face obvs

 

dipoto has been talking him up ever since he was acquired in the segura/taiwan walker deal. i've even seen dipoto saying (and this was like a month ago, before smith went) that the plan is for haniger to hit second, after segura and in front of cano/cruz

 

his AAA numbers last year were... good. in reno, true

 

personally i like him quite a bit. let's discuss

 

 

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value has increased twice now this offseason.

 

He was buried in arizona, was likely to split time with smith, and is now looking at full time reps.

 

Like him, reminds me of ryon healy, late blooming PCL star, under the radar. Yes PCL is a hitting friendly league but it doesn't mean success is irrelevant.

 

Will be farther under the radar than healy this year, of course.

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i ride both the healy and haniger trains; one difference is that healy's PCL home park was nashville, which is... in tennessee, so, not exactly the high, dry desert air. whereas reno (haniger's home base) is one of the two or three parks that really gives the PCL the reputation it has (reno, vegas, albuquerque, now el paso, places like that. the mountain parks)

 

of course, haniger's PCL numbers were also a lot better than healy's. healy's big breakout actually happened in AA, he was more solid than spectacular in his AAA time

 

but haniger was a first-round pick, and made swing changes in-season in 2015. and you know how i feel about swing changes followed by huge performance jumps

 

i've actually been surprised by the degree of respect he's gotten from some of the usually stodgy, regression-screeching sources. IIRC dave cameron in a chat called him basically a grocery store brand AJ pollock. someone else comped him to... what was it. dang. somebody else good

 

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3 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

Except according to Rosenthal the  Mariners are looking for another outfielder that can play full time.

 

well, cross that bridge when we come to it. bear in mind, the mariners current theoretical starting OF also includes ben gamel, and i feel like he'd probably lose playing time before haniger at this point

 

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34 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

well, cross that bridge when we come to it. bear in mind, the mariners current theoretical starting OF also includes ben gamel, and i feel like he'd probably lose playing time before haniger at this point

 

Cross the bridge time already.   Looks like Jarod Dyson.

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1 minute ago, TheBoatmen said:

Cross the bridge time already.   Looks like Jarod Dyson.

 

that didn't take long. lol

 

personally i don't think jarrod dyson will block haniger if haniger hits anywhere close to how i think he will. only problem is dyson and gamel are both LHH whereas haniger is RH. so people keep wanting to make it a platoon. but neither haniger nor gamel have much in the way of splits. dyson does, IIRC

 

dunno. it'll probably take spring training to see how it shakes out

 

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4 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

Cross the bridge time already.   Looks like Jarod Dyson.

As a Mariners fan, I'm thinking Haniger probably plays full time and Gamel is odd man out. Although if I were the manager I'd use Valencia in a corner spot against RHP (he's locked in at 1B against LHP unless Vogelbach is a monster)

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5 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

As a Mariners fan, I'm thinking Haniger probably plays full time and Gamel is odd man out. Although if I were the manager I'd use Valencia in a corner spot against RHP (he's locked in at 1B against LHP unless Vogelbach is a monster)

 

yeah... i like valencia a lot but it's hard to squeeze him into that lineup full-time at this point. you got the vogelbach platoon at 1B, and then dyson and gamel as LHH in the OF, plus leonys who they seem to consider a locked-in full-time player even though his hitting is irritating, and haniger who's in theory a good RHH against all pitchers and plays much better OF defense than valencia (i assume). and cruz locked into DH.

 

valencia's probably still a substantially better hitter than dyson or gamel but the defense and speed make it hard, especially since we're talking about the strong platoon side for both of those guys vs. valencia's weaker side (though improved the past couple years) 

 

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as i hoped, the early reports i'm seeing suggest that the expected starting alignment will be dyson LF / leonys CF / haniger RF, with gamel and heredia competing for the 4th OF job

 

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/mariners-guillermo-heredia-to-compete-for-fourth-outfield-spot/

 

no doubt that could change in the spring, but that's always the way with this sort of thing. you still can't ask for a much better opportunity for a guy like haniger (AAA performer without pre-existing shiny prospect cred)

 

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I'm a pretty big Haniger fan, the coach he's rebuilt his swing with is amazing. I'll be the first to admit though, that I have no idea how he is defensively. That would potentially concern me more than l/r splits

 

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15 hours ago, wily mo said:

as i hoped, the early reports i'm seeing suggest that the expected starting alignment will be dyson LF / leonys CF / haniger RF, with gamel and heredia competing for the 4th OF job

 

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/mariners-guillermo-heredia-to-compete-for-fourth-outfield-spot/

 

no doubt that could change in the spring, but that's always the way with this sort of thing. you still can't ask for a much better opportunity for a guy like haniger (AAA performer without pre-existing shiny prospect cred)

 

You called it.  Looks like your right, manager announced he would get full time AB's.

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On 1/7/2017 at 9:50 AM, WahooManiac said:

I'm a pretty big Haniger fan, the coach he's rebuilt his swing with is amazing. I'll be the first to admit though, that I have no idea how he is defensively. That would potentially concern me more than l/r splits

 

 

he's actually supposed to be great defensively. like, can actually play center, or plus in a corner

 

there's even some factoid floating around about how he had the second-highest... one of those defensive metrics, DRS or one of them... anyway, the second-best Something of any center fielder last year, and it was kind of a small sample so nobody's sure exactly how real it is, but, better to be great in a small sample than terrible in a small sample. anyway, that's another indication that he's at least passable in center

 

so he's not gonna lose a RF job because of defense, no. this appears to be part of the mariners' plan under dipoto, prioritizing OF defense. hence getting rid of smith, banishing cruz to DH, and bringing in gamel, haniger, dyson. all good defenders

 

 

 

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for the sake of thoroughness, here are the two fangraphs articles that wound up being almost entirely dedicated to haniger the week of the trade:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-and-dbacks-exchange-upside-and-downside/

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/was-the-jean-segura-trade-really-the-mitch-haniger-trade/

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28 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

Looks like we are crossing the bridge yet again.  Dipoto strikes again.  Mallex Smith is a Mariner.  Another trade Ian coming though.

Maybe what you're referring to in your last sentence, but apparently Mallex is about to be flipped

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13 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Maybe what you're referring to in your last sentence, but apparently Mallex is about to be flipped

Yes sorry, you have to read up in the thread further.  Before it was about the Dyson trade possibly taking  PT away from Haniger, now it could be Smith if he is not flipped.

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10 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

Yes sorry, you have to read up in the thread further.  Before it was about the Dyson trade possibly taking  PT away from Haniger, now it could be Smith if he is not flipped.

Smith dealt for Smyly:

 

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at this point all signs point to dipoto basically being hellbent on using haniger as the starting RF going into next year, unless he just strikes out in every PA in the spring. i don't think he's going to get blocked.

 

here's a tidbit from today's dave cameron chat over at fangraphs btw

 

Quote
12:25
Bleh: Who’s your biggest “he’s gonna surprise a lot of people with how good he is” guy this year?
 
12:25
Dave Cameron: Mitch Haniger.

 

of course i'll ruthlessly disparage cameron the moment he says something i don't agree with, but if he says something i do like i'm not above trotting it out anyway

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

 

{mystic narrator voice} it's starting

 

Quote

Mariners manager Scott Servais said he's been most impressed by Mitch Haniger in the early portion of spring training.

"He has a plan every time he’s in the outfield, on the bases or in the batter’s box," said Servais. "It’s a very professional approach." Haniger finally made the big leagues with the Diamondbacks last year, hitting .229 with five homers and 17 RBI over 34 appearances. After trading Seth Smith, letting Franklin Gutierrez walk in free agency and waiving Nori Aoki this offseason, Haniger should open the year as Seattle's starting right fielder. Haniger may not develop into a fantasy asset right away but he's someone to keep an eye on.

 

Quote

Mitch Haniger said Friday that he believes he's capable of stealing 20 bases this season.

Mariners manager Scott Servais added that he's given the outfielder the green light on the basepaths. Haniger has stolen double-digit bases a few times in the minors but hasn't come close to 20, so it would be a nice surprise if he's able to get to that number. The 26-year-old is a former compensation round draft pick but bloomed late as a prospect following a swing change. He has the potential to be an interesting power/speed flier late in your fantasy draft.

 

(for the record, i'll believe this 20SB talk when i see it. no track record of anything like that in the minors, as they say above. best shape of his life! but i love him anyway)

 

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

having a nice spring so far - after his 3 for 4 performance today, he's north of .400. through 35 ABs. 

 

Seems like he could be a 20/10 and his ADP is around 364. While his stint with the Diamondbacks wasn't overly impressive late last year, his AAA numbers were ridiculous (185 WRC+ in 74 games). I don't buy 20 SB, but 10-12 to go along with 20-24 HRs. Could slot in 5th or 6th in the lineup. If his BABIP is closer to his minor league track record he won't be a drain on average either, especially with a K% in the low 20's and a 37% hard contact in his callup. If he keeps raking in ST, his stock will continue to rise.

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2 minutes ago, MJDrocks said:

I simply don't understand how this guy's ADP is so low.  I would take him ahead of 90% of the 100 guys going 100 picks ahead of him on average.

 

Because of the risk and the fact that most casual fantasy players don't play in leagues deep enough to take advantage of a guy like Haniger.

 

That said -- he's raking.  Great target in the mid-late rounds.

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