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Jose Peraza 2017 Outlook


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2 hours ago, jb_power said:

he's projected to be batting 8th according to Roster Resource.

 

Batting orders are quite volatile and I think he'll be batting 1st or 2nd by May, June at the latest.  I just don't see Zach Cozart as a good option for the #2 spot.

 

 

Price strikes me as the type that would leave the veteran higher in the order.  Regardless, tough to know exactly what he'll do. 

 

But if Peraza isn't batting 1 or 2 he should be batting 6th, 7th or 9th, just NOT 8th.  Batting a guy with his skill set on front of the pitcher is a waste of his skills.  

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3 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Price strikes me as the type that would leave the veteran higher in the order.  Regardless, tough to know exactly what he'll do. 

 

But if Peraza isn't batting 1 or 2 he should be batting 6th, 7th or 9th, just NOT 8th.  Batting a guy with his skill set on front of the pitcher is a waste of his skills.  

 

How confident are we that Price realizes this?  Batting him 8th would be so incredibly frustrating.

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3 hours ago, JFS179 said:

 

How confident are we that Price realizes this?  Batting him 8th would be so incredibly frustrating.

 

During the time that Billy Hamilton was not injured Peraza started predominantly at 2nd and 7th. Depending on his ST performance it should be one or the other. I would definitely put my money on the #2 spot based on his hitting .323 while at the top spots of the lineup last year. The Reds organization also just took a PR hit from the average fan that cares more about players visiting local little league games than the team saving 2 million dollars so they will want something tangible to justify "giving away" Phillips.

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8 hours ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

During the time that Billy Hamilton was not injured Peraza started predominantly at 2nd and 7th. Depending on his ST performance it should be one or the other. I would definitely put my money on the #2 spot based on his hitting .323 while at the top spots of the lineup last year. The Reds organization also just took a PR hit from the average fan that cares more about players visiting local little league games than the team saving 2 million dollars so they will want something tangible to justify "giving away" Phillips.

 

Peraza started 2 games in the 2nd slot when both Billy H and Cozart were healthy and playing.

Both Cozart and Billy are expected to play when healthy.
Peraza started mostly in the 7th slot with them in the lineup, but Mesoraco never played.

Peraza's lineup spot with Billy + Cozart minus Mesoraco

 

june 17 - 9th (in AL)
june 21 - 8th
june 23 - 7th
june 27 - 7th
july 2 - 2nd (Hamilton hit 7th)
july 3 - 2nd (Hamilton hit 7th)
july 6 - 7th
july 16 - 7th
july 17 - 7th
july 20 - 7th
july 31 - 7th
aug 30 - 8th (in AL)

aug 31 - 8th (in AL)
sep 3 - 6th (no Phillips)
sep 4 - 6th (no Phillips)

Edited by JCD
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Times are changing for the Reds. Isn't it possible/likely that if Peraza is getting on base, he should get more time in those top two spots.

With Phillips gone, Price might decide he needs another veteran in the middle of the order and put Cozart sixth, Suarez seventh.

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Billy Hamilton and Peraza back to back 1-2 would be like Grissom and Deshields for the Expos in Super Batter Up (SNES)... In 1991 Deshields stole 56 bases while playing 2B, and Grissom stole 76 playing CF.

 

I'd be interested to see how it would work out. 

 

Even if Peraza is batting 8th he should have the green light to steal with the pitcher up, and that's where is value is going to be. I'm not concerned about lineup position because of he plays well enough he'll climb. 

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16 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Even if Peraza is batting 8th he should have the green light to steal with the pitcher up

Why give a greenlight to steal when you're just going to bunt anyway?

This seems like a situation where it might be better to bat Peraza 9th behind the pitcher

Edited by mysonx3
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2 hours ago, ryno1980 said:

Times are changing for the Reds. Isn't it possible/likely that if Peraza is getting on base, he should get more time in those top two spots.

With Phillips gone, Price might decide he needs another veteran in the middle of the order and put Cozart sixth, Suarez seventh.

 

Peraza though doesn't get "on base" in the sense that he doesn't walk. 

 

Right now we wanna poo poo Billy Hamilton because we've been doing it for years but like I've said a few places... for years Ive been of the mindset "can't buy into Hamilton cause he refuses to really sell out for GBs and doesn't walk that much" but he finally had adjustments go in his favor in terms of BB and GB. Right now Hamiltons coming off a 7.8% BB% year and Peraza is coming off a 2.9% and considering Perazas skill set I don't necessarily see that changing. Now personally I still see Perazas ability to hit for average to be strong enough to surpass Hamilton in OBP and I think Perazas XBH power is better so I'd prefer him up there, but as long as Billy's being .330 OBP Billy (or better if he continues to improve) it's a much harder argument, and Peraza I believe will hit for a very high BA right away, but the thing is he absolutely has to with that BB%...  

 

One thing of note that I just saw randomly but for Perazas OBP he was hit by about as many pitches as times he walked (7BBs, 5 HBPs) and even that ratio he needs a .300 BA to get that .330 OBP that Billy can get with a .260. So again I'd rather it be Peraza but at this stage of both their careers I actually don't believe it to be as cut and dry with Billy's literal 100 SB potential and over double BB%

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To nobody in particular, just on this ol' "lineup position" discussion that started back on page 1. I will need to see some evidence (quotes, ST lineups w/full squad, etc) that Coach Bryan Pryce values OBP at the top of the lineup like a Francona. I see Pryce from the Ned Yost school of lineups. Speed at leadoff, 2nd spot can "handle the bat" (whatever that means), Votto, Duvall, etc.

 

If Billy H or Cozart slump for a month or two, all bets are off (as I said in my previous post in this thread).

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23 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Peraza though doesn't get "on base" in the sense that he doesn't walk. 

 

Right now we wanna poo poo Billy Hamilton because we've been doing it for years but like I've said a few places... for years Ive been of the mindset "can't buy into Hamilton cause he refuses to really sell out for GBs and doesn't walk that much" but he finally had adjustments go in his favor in terms of BB and GB. Right now Hamiltons coming off a 7.8% BB% year and Peraza is coming off a 2.9% and considering Perazas skill set I don't necessarily see that changing. Now personally I still see Perazas ability to hit for average to be strong enough to surpass Hamilton in OBP and I think Perazas XBH power is better so I'd prefer him up there, but as long as Billy's being .330 OBP Billy (or better if he continues to improve) it's a much harder argument, and Peraza I believe will hit for a very high BA right away, but the thing is he absolutely has to with that BB%...  

 

One thing of note that I just saw randomly but for Perazas OBP he was hit by about as many pitches as times he walked (7BBs, 5 HBPs) and even that ratio he needs a .300 BA to get that .330 OBP that Billy can get with a .260. So again I'd rather it be Peraza but at this stage of both their careers I actually don't believe it to be as cut and dry with Billy's literal 100 SB potential and over double BB%

 

I didn't intend my comment as a slight to Hamilton. 

I could see them going Peraza-Hamilton-Votto or Hamilton-Peraza-Votto.

It looks like Peraza will never be a plus plus on base guy but neither is Cosart, who batted a ton of lead off last year with a .310 OBP.

 

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8th spot would be bad, IMO. It would potentially help the OBP with teams preferring to pitch to the pitcher instead, but teams don't often run with the pitcher at the plate because he can either bunt them over (less than 2 outs), or you risk starting the next inning with your pitcher if he's thrown out stealing (with 2 outs).

 

Managers seem to have a borderline irrational fear of the latter scenario, thus 8th place batters hardly ever run. 

 

They'd be better off hitting the pitcher 8th and Peraza 9th in that scenario. I personally think his contact skills fit very well as a 2-hole hitter. He fits the "handle the bat" mold. 

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http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-does-batting-order-affect-stolen-bases/

 

Lineup placement doesn't effect SB much, it's more skill based, obviously leadoff hitters steal s lot more, but overall your placement doesn't effect attempts much according to that analysis. 

 

Strategically, if I got Peraza on first with the pitcher up,I want him stealing 2B, bunt him to 3B, then slappy GB machine Hamilton can get him home just by making contact. 

 

At the end of the day I'm not very concerned where he hits in the lineup because his speed is a rare ability and will gather SB in any lineup spot. 

Edited by StevieStats
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59 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-does-batting-order-affect-stolen-bases/

 

Lineup placement doesn't effect SB much, it's more skill based, obviously leadoff hitters steal s lot more, but overall your placement doesn't effect attempts much according to that analysis. 

 

Strategically, if I got Peraza on first with the pitcher up,I want him stealing 2B, bunt him to 3B, then slappy GB machine Hamilton can get him home just by making contact. 

 

At the end of the day I'm not very concerned where he hits in the lineup because his speed is a rare ability and will gather SB in any lineup spot. 

But what if he gets caught stealing second? No way would I want a guy stealing in front of the pitcher

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3 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

But what if he gets caught stealing second? No way would I want a guy stealing in front of the pitcher

And he did get caught a third of the time. Even in a two out scenario with that conversation rate the argument that you'd rather simply flip the lineup card so that you get to start with 1 instead of 9 the next inning is strong enough to not steal.

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13 hours ago, einstein2u said:

comfy enough for him to be your starting 2nd baseman?

 

I would start him at 2B.....even with the hype in an auction league he'll probably go $10-15....thats still good value if he delivers 40 SBs with a decent BA and Rs at 2B.  

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13 hours ago, taobball said:

And he did get caught a third of the time. Even in a two out scenario with that conversation rate the argument that you'd rather simply flip the lineup card so that you get to start with 1 instead of 9 the next inning is strong enough to not steal.

 

Whatever Price decides to do he shouldn't bat in front of the pitcher.

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On 2/15/2017 at 8:35 PM, taobball said:

Batting Average production is directly tied to volume of ABs for hitters... his batting average means so much less if he's 8th as well. It's not just the steals.  

But isn't batting average a quality stat.  Not a quantity one.  So he goes 2 for 3 in a game instead of 2 for 4.  Maybe that is a good thing.

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34 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But isn't batting average a quality stat.  Not a quantity one.  So he goes 2 for 3 in a game instead of 2 for 4.  Maybe that is a good thing.

 

It's the weighting of the stat that's based on volume. 

 

Two hitters -- each get 500 ABs.  One guy hits .250, the other guy hits. 300.  Team average nets out to .275.

 

Let's assume the same two hitters have the same averages, but the .300 hitter now gets 650 ABs while the .250 hitter gets his 500 again.  Team average is now .278.  May not seem like much, but that may mean a few spots in roto...

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But isn't batting average a quality stat.  Not a quantity one.  So he goes 2 for 3 in a game instead of 2 for 4.  Maybe that is a good thing.

Except 70% of the time that 4th AB wouldn't have been a hit.

Batting average has more impact the more AB you have. Your team's average isn't calculated by the average of all your players batting averages, it's calculated by your team's total his divided by your team's total ABs

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1 hour ago, JFS179 said:

 

It's the weighting of the stat that's based on volume. 

 

Two hitters -- each get 500 ABs.  One guy hits .250, the other guy hits. 300.  Team average nets out to .275.

 

Let's assume the same two hitters have the same averages, but the .300 hitter now gets 650 ABs while the .250 hitter gets his 500 again.  Team average is now .278.  May not seem like much, but that may mean a few spots in roto...

 

To use a more extreme and incredibly fictitious example, say to win a league in BA you needed a .277 BA and one hitter  had a .300 BA but is 150/500 in Hits/ABs and another hitter is .283 but is 566/2000, the weight of that BA is going to carry you an incredible amount more than it seems because its "just" .283. It's going to weigh way more into your team average because you don't get "Batting Average" in a 5x5 league, you get Hits over ABs, so you're buying their Hits and taking their ABs in... and if someone like Mookie produces far more hits than someone like trout, even if they have teh same BA, his average is more important. 

 

A real life example from last year, tied for the best batting average according to the ESPN player rater was DJ Lem (192/552, .348 BA) and Altuve (216/640, .338 BA). These were equivalent even though DJ L had a .10 point better BA because you get more hits from altuve so his BA weights more. 

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