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Mike Montgomery 2017 Outlook


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With the likely departure of Hammel, it looks like Montgomery is well poised to claim the fifth starter role for the defending champion Cubs. Obviously that bodes well for his chances at wins, and pitching in the NL will be better for him in general. He has some  decent pedigree as a prospect and is still just 27 years old. 

In 5 starts with the Cubs last season, he amassed 29.1 innings, with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. His K/9 did dip from 8.9 (on the season as a whole) to 7.36 as a Cubs starter, and his BB/9 rose to 3.68. Also worth noting, is the fact that his FIP was 4.74 with the Cubs, up significantly from 3.19 while in Seattle.

As of now he's a player I'm flagging for a late round target (assuming the Cubs don't acquire more SP). Especially given the excellent organization for pitching reclamation/development and the veterans around the clubhouse. 

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Ssshhhh. Don't post too much. I want people to completely forget about Montgomery so he remains a deep sleeper. 

what player thread is this?   I was looking for Montgomery, Cubs pitcher.  Lead me to him please

You ever been to San Diego man?

2 minutes ago, bigpapi88 said:

With the likely departure of Hammel, it looks like Montgomery is well poised to claim the fifth starter role for the defending champion Cubs. Obviously that bodes well for his chances at wins, and pitching in the NL will be better for him in general. He has some  decent pedigree as a prospect and is still just 27 years old. 

In 5 starts with the Cubs last season, he amassed 29.1 innings, with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. His K/9 did dip from 8.9 (on the season as a whole) to 7.36 as a Cubs starter, and his BB/9 rose to 3.68. Also worth noting, is the fact that his FIP was 4.74 with the Cubs, up significantly from 3.19 while in Seattle.

As of now he's a player I'm flagging for a late round target (assuming the Cubs don't acquire more SP). Especially given the excellent organization for pitching reclamation/development and the veterans around the clubhouse. 

 

Montgomery, unless he pitches on another level, is going to have the boogey man of being put into the bullpen on his shoulder throughout the entire season. I'm a big fan though. Love the stuff, love the pitch mix, and I think he has what it takes to be a starter at the MLB level right now. I think he's a borderline top 50-60 guy and I don't think he really needs to make any improvement to get ther. 

Edited by taobball
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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Montgomery, unless he pitches on another level, is going to have the boogey man of being put into the bullpen on his shoulder throughout the entire season. I'm a big fan though. Love the stuff, love the pitch mix, and I think he has what it takes to be a starter at the MLB level right now. I think he's a borderline top 50-60 guy and I don't think he really needs to make any improvement to get ther. 

Do you think his ADP will rise significantly to reflect that kind of ranking? The data I can find on him now (Fantrax ADP has him 96th). I am assuming that goes up 15-20 spots if he secures a rotation spot and does well in spring training, but I'm hoping to get him as a SP5 paying close to streamer price. 

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1 minute ago, bigpapi88 said:

Do you think his ADP will rise significantly to reflect that kind of ranking? The data I can find on him now (Fantrax ADP has him 96th). I am assuming that goes up 15-20 spots if he secures a rotation spot and does well in spring training, but I'm hoping to get him as a SP5 paying close to streamer price. 

 

I don't think he's seen a large enough sample as a major leaguer to get the hype high enough to get him in the top 60 personally. I've been wrong on ADP trends before and you may have to draft him around 60ish to secure him, but I don't think he gets TOO high, and if he doesn't it's a purely Cubs related thing. I actually like the raw skills of his pitching regardless of the team situation or defense but I think those two factors, not his raw skills, could hype him more than I personally anticipate. For right now though I don't think he'll carry an ADP over the top 70. 

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I can't believe people are talking about an ADP of 100.   Is that for pitchers alone or actual draft position? I thought I would get this guy around an ADP of 400.  

 

Bullpen is a realistic possibility.  

 

I like him but not at a ADP of 100.

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19 minutes ago, jwblue said:

I can't believe people are talking about an ADP of 100.   Is that for pitchers alone or actual draft position? I thought I would get this guy around an ADP of 400.  

 

Bullpen is a realistic possibility.  

 

I like him but not at a ADP of 100.

 

If you're talking about us we are talking about SPs and I think everyone else you're discussing is as well

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1 hour ago, jwblue said:

I can't believe people are talking about an ADP of 100.   Is that for pitchers alone or actual draft position? I thought I would get this guy around an ADP of 400.  

 

Bullpen is a realistic possibility.  

 

I like him but not at a ADP of 100.

They're referring to among pitchers

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Joined team Montgomery last night via trade. While I do believe there is significant chance he ends up in the bullpen, especially the 2nd half of the season, in 2018 and forward he should be a valuable piece with a well above average arsenal.

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  • 1 month later...

Anderson had a poor line today, didn't see anytihng and obviously at this point it means little, but here's Rotoballer's take:

 

Brett Anderson entered Spring Training as Mike Montgomery's biggest challenger for the fifth and final spot in the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation. After tossing a successful scoreless inning earlier in the week, the 29-year-old struggled today against the Dodgers. Anderson surrendered two runs on three hits in two innings against his former team. While he did strike out a batter, the left-hander can’t afford too many setbacks as he already enters the battle as the underdog.--Ricky Delgado - RotoBaller

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8 hours ago, taobball said:

Anderson had a poor line today, didn't see anytihng and obviously at this point it means little, but here's Rotoballer's take:

 

Brett Anderson entered Spring Training as Mike Montgomery's biggest challenger for the fifth and final spot in the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation. After tossing a successful scoreless inning earlier in the week, the 29-year-old struggled today against the Dodgers. Anderson surrendered two runs on three hits in two innings against his former team. While he did strike out a batter, the left-hander can’t afford too many setbacks as he already enters the battle as the underdog.--Ricky Delgado - RotoBaller

 

Ssshhhh. Don't post too much. I want people to completely forget about Montgomery so he remains a deep sleeper. ;)

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The whole thing that came about the possibility of Monty and Andy sharing the 5th spot really cooled a lot sleeper talk.  Monty can be had for dirt cheap.  He will be a huge value if you is able to shake Anderson.

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1 minute ago, MJDrocks said:

The whole thing that came about the possibility of Monty and Andy sharing the 5th spot really cooled a lot sleeper talk.  Monty can be had for dirt cheap.  He will be a huge value if you is able to shake Anderson.

 

I will say this though, while it is my belief that Monty can actually be considerably better than Anderson, I think Theo really likes Anderson's skill set and he's referred to him as a sleeper on a radio broadcast before. I think with opportunity Monty's a potential top 45 arm with upside though... and pretty legitimate upside. 

 

Ray Searage (sp?) is one of the best if not the best pitching coaches in baseball but he's probably the only one who gets a ton of hype in fantasy circles. Chris Bosio of the Cubs is a REALLY good pitching coach. 

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32 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I will say this though, while it is my belief that Monty can actually be considerably better than Anderson, I think Theo really likes Anderson's skill set and he's referred to him as a sleeper on a radio broadcast before. I think with opportunity Monty's a potential top 45 arm with upside though... and pretty legitimate upside. 

 

Ray Searage (sp?) is one of the best if not the best pitching coaches in baseball but he's probably the only one who gets a ton of hype in fantasy circles. Chris Bosio of the Cubs is a REALLY good pitching coach. 

 

My list in no specific order:

 

Searage

Bosio

Ballsley (sp?) in SD

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

How are pitching coaches rated?

Mostly subjective and narrative based I think. For example, I give Bosio some of the credit for Arrieta turning into an ace (and also some blame for him being a bust in Baltimore on their pitching coaches). I also give him some credit for Kyle Hendricks, along with credit to Hendricks himself obviously (the biggest slice in my opinion) and some blame to the industry for undervaluing the command & changeup profile. I also give Bosio some credit for the Cubs phenomenal contact management on a team level (that historic BABIP wasn't just their defense - they did a phenomenal job limiting hard contact as a team)

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On 3/11/2017 at 4:00 PM, mysonx3 said:

Wonder how much a team would be willing to give up if a Searage or a Bosio was available via FA/trade?

Heck, I wonder what kind of mega deal Epstein could get as a FA...

OT:  Theo already got his FA mega-deal. 

If the SD pitching coach is so good what is he still doing in SD?  Locked into some iron tight contract?  I mean wouldn't the big boys and their big checkbooks be all over getting his service if he is that good?

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15 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

any updates on him?  will he win the 5th spot?

Something I read a few days ago suggested it wasnt about winning the 5th spot, but more who is better suited to do what.  Evidently MM is fine being the swing guy out of the pen while the Cubs think that Brett Anderson needs to throw regularly and is really only suited as a starter.   Now, Anderson has never really been healthy, so take that for what its worth, but my feeling after reading that is that Monty would be in pen, Anderson would start the year as the No.5

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They've been talking about using both Anderson and Monty and been talking Anderson up a lot. I want it to be Mo ty and think he'd be better in the role right now but there's some serious doubt as to that actually happening right now.

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

They've been talking about using both Anderson and Monty and been talking Anderson up a lot. I want it to be Mo ty and think he'd be better in the role right now but there's some serious doubt as to that actually happening right now.

The problem is that when you are choosing players for spots, etc, sometimes its not as simple as who is the best guy for this spot, is the combination of the two, it isnt always the case, but sometimes its not as simple as a straight competition.  I agree 100%, Montgomery is the better choice for no.5, but I think they view the pen as a no-go for Anderson and the better combo for them is Anderson as the 5 and Monty as the bullpen arm.  Its one of those deals that hurts from the fantasy perspective because Montgomery is appeling, Anderson is a dont touch.  

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8 minutes ago, parrothead said:

The problem is that when you are choosing players for spots, etc, sometimes its not as simple as who is the best guy for this spot, is the combination of the two, it isnt always the case, but sometimes its not as simple as a straight competition.  I agree 100%, Montgomery is the better choice for no.5, but I think they view the pen as a no-go for Anderson and the better combo for them is Anderson as the 5 and Monty as the bullpen arm.  Its one of those deals that hurts from the fantasy perspective because Montgomery is appeling, Anderson is a dont touch.  

 

Maybe wrong thread but I don't view Anderson as a don't touch at his ADP. Always had a strong GB rate, perfect situation, and dirt cheap. In the right size league drafting both and hoping for a combined 200 innings sounds worthwhile 

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