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Yu Darvish 2017 Outlook


tucker26
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Yu's bb/9 in 2016 was the best of his career, I'm not sure what you're talking about.

 

TJS is behind Darvish now. He had surgery March 17, 2015, and didn't rush his return. Came back May 28, 2016, which is 14.5 months. That's more than the year some pitchers get, and closer to the year and half I usually like to see. He had some shoulder discomfort, nothing on the MRI, and then rehabbed and returned strong like he has always been his entire career. He was 100% healthy to close the season and should be 100% healthy in 2017. 

 

His fastball velo was some of the best in his career in 2016. He averaged 200 innings per year over 2012 and 2013. He was on pace for 200 innings in 2014, before having arm issues, which was the spectre for the 2015 TJS. I see no reason whatsoever that yu won't return to his 200 inning ways now that he has moved past all that. With Yu, I look at his 2014 arm injury, 2015 TJS, and 2016 shoulder issue ALL as connected medical issues which have now resolved.

 

I see Yu as an easy top 10 pitcher.

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3 minutes ago, motown magic said:

I said ever again. 2015 is in the past

You said it like it hasn't happened since Randy Johnson haha.

 

Alright, you're technically correct. As long as Kershaw is still in his prime though, I'm not betting against it. And if Yu pitches over 200 innings, he's got a shot too. He's already hit 277.

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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9 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Why not? Ks keep going up and up. Do you expect innings by SP to continue going down?

$$$$$$   Because of the money invested in stud pitchers teams will bring in the reins a little. Just like the transition from when pitchers pitched 3-4 times a week and threw over 300 innings a year. The middle relief guys have changed how long pitchers go. Used to be try to go 7-8 and get the the setup and closer. Now its more like 5-6 innings. I think the Indians maybe starting that trend . Worked really well for them . Other teams will look at that. It may not happen this year or next but its coming.

Thats my opinion.But I think I'm more right than wrong

I would love to see Kershaw or Darvish hit 300. I own them both but in two different leagues.

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29 minutes ago, motown magic said:

$$$$$$   Because of the money invested in stud pitchers teams will bring in the reins a little. Just like the transition from when pitchers pitched 3-4 times a week and threw over 300 innings a year. The middle relief guys have changed how long pitchers go. Used to be try to go 7-8 and get the the setup and closer. Now its more like 5-6 innings. I think the Indians maybe starting that trend . Worked really well for them . Other teams will look at that. It may not happen this year or next but its coming.

Thats my opinion.But I think I'm more right than wrong

I would love to see Kershaw or Darvish hit 300. I own them both but in two different leagues.

Kershaw hit 300 in 2015 and was on pace for it last year. You don't need to pitch 275 innings to hit 300. Money also isn't a problem... The Rangers are in win mode.

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6 hours ago, motown magic said:

$$$$$$   Because of the money invested in stud pitchers teams will bring in the reins a little. Just like the transition from when pitchers pitched 3-4 times a week and threw over 300 innings a year. The middle relief guys have changed how long pitchers go. Used to be try to go 7-8 and get the the setup and closer. Now its more like 5-6 innings. I think the Indians maybe starting that trend . Worked really well for them . Other teams will look at that. It may not happen this year or next but its coming.

Thats my opinion.But I think I'm more right than wrong

I would love to see Kershaw or Darvish hit 300. I own them both but in two different leagues.

I mean, have we really transitioned much from the last time there was a 300 K pitcher? Or from last year when Kershaw was on pace for it if he hadn't gotten hurt?

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16 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

The gif of Yu throwing six pitches from the same release point is still one of the greatest things ever.  Can't wait to see him healthy for a full season

 

you never forget that gif. Incredible. totally explains why Yu has an all-time great strikeout rate

 

personally, I have to choose two of: Bogaerts in the 4th, Kluber in the 5th, and Darvish in the 12th. I feel a bit more comfortable with Kluber, but 7 rounds is a big difference. 

 

the strikeouts though. my my...

He is the strikeout pitcher in baseball right now. I'm very curious where Darvish would finish on Player Rater with a full healthy season. 

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I agree but because Kershaw and Darvish both got hurt do you really think they will allow them to pitch deep into games every game? Darvish may protect himself because he is in the last year of a contract. How much is a hurt pitcher worth in the off season?

The transition really started this year with the Indians. I think more teams will look to do the same as time goes on and it will be sooner than later.

Again thats my opinion.

I think Darvish is a top 8 pitcher going forward.

Edited by motown magic
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Just now, motown magic said:

I agree but because Kershaw and Darvish both got hurt do you really think they will allow them to pitch deep into games every game? Darvish may protect himself because he is in the last year of a contract.

The transition really started this year with the Indians. I think more teams will look to do the same as time goes on and it will be sooner than later.

Again thats my opinion.

The transition mostly took place with the middle and back of rotation starters - aces were generally left to do their thing, because they're often more effective than the RP you'd put in, whereas most SP aren't.

Just look at Kershaw's usage after injury if you think they'll hold him back because he got hurt

 

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9 minutes ago, motown magic said:

I hope Darvish throws 215-220 innings . 10.5-11 K's per 9 .

Kershaw 210-215  innings 11-12 per 9  235-240 K's 

 

That would actually be the second lowest K/9 of Darvish's career, and that would still put him between 251-268. If he tossed 220 innings he'd need a 12.27 K/9 to reach 300 - that's not too far-fetched.

Why are you projecting less innings for Kershaw than Darvish?

Your Kershaw projection gives him 257 on the low end and 287 on the high end

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