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Yu Darvish 2017 Outlook


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27 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Darvish is so puzzling to me. His stuff is so, so good. Over his past 18 starts he's only given up more than 3 earned runs three times, but I don't get how he doesn't dominate more often. Even in many of those 2-3 run starts, he doesn't *look* that good. He should be in the CY Young convo with his stuff. I still am praying the Yanks get almost anyone except him, because he is terrifying when he's on. 

Also his 3 worst starts have all been at home. Only 1 bad road start on the year. Worst road start he allowed 4ER.

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1 hour ago, mannymachado said:

Why does everybody think he's going to LA?

Because the Rangers have been vocal as of late about their desire to move him, and LA is trying to land another arm to fill Kershaw's void and also pitch in the playoffs. It just makes too much sense. Perfect fit.

 

Plus everyone just wants it to happen because he would move from AL hitter friendly park to NL pitcher friendly park.

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4 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Darvish is so puzzling to me. His stuff is so, so good. Over his past 18 starts he's only given up more than 3 earned runs three times, but I don't get how he doesn't dominate more often. Even in many of those 2-3 run starts, he doesn't *look* that good. He should be in the CY Young convo with his stuff. I still am praying the Yanks get almost anyone except him, because he is terrifying when he's on. 

I agree.  He's a complete connundrum.  He's got the stuff to dominate.  94 MPH average fastball.  Slider.  Curve.  Change. Split.  He can throw anything at you anytime.   His problem is he abandoned change and split.  He fell in love with his cutter and it doesn't really ever get blasted but it gets fouled off a TON.  He gets into so many deep counts because he doesn't put guys away anymore.  He doesn't have the knockout curve anymore.  His slider is still good to righties but lefties are still slugging quite a bit higher off him.  He's a good arm.  Came in overhyped.  Settled into being a nice arm.  He's not an ace but solid number 2.

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2 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I agree.  He's a complete connundrum.  He's got the stuff to dominate.  94 MPH average fastball.  Slider.  Curve.  Change. Split.  He can throw anything at you anytime.   His problem is he abandoned change and split.  He fell in love with his cutter and it doesn't really ever get blasted but it gets fouled off a TON.  He gets into so many deep counts because he doesn't put guys away anymore.  He doesn't have the knockout curve anymore.  His slider is still good to righties but lefties are still slugging quite a bit higher off him.  He's a good arm.  Came in overhyped.  Settled into being a nice arm.  He's not an ace but solid number 2.

so i've never owned darvish before, and haven't really researched him much, but based on this post wanted to do some digging..

using brooks baseball it doesn't appear he's really using his cutter more now than he has in previous years (it's kind of fluctuated season to season with an average of 14.1% usage compared to this season of 14.5), but what has changed is not really any usage of pitch, but the velocity of one particular pitch this season: his curve. your statement about not having a knockout curve any longer is dead on. now brooks has two curves, a "slow curve" and his standard curve, so i don't know how likely it is that a couple of pitches got mislabeled and screwed up the average, but we'll assume classification is fairly accurate.

since 2009 (including this season to date) his curve has had an average velocity of 76.75, but this season it's sitting at 73.6.

this seems significant to me, and looking the charts this has been a pretty steady trend. the value, or score, of his curve has followed a downward trend also going from a 3.85 in 2013 to a 0.58 this season.

indeed, the lack of dominance seems directly related to not having a killer curve.

yu_darvish.PNG

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1 minute ago, osb_tensor said:

so i've never owned darvish before, and haven't really researched him much, but based on this post wanted to do some digging..

using brooks baseball it doesn't appear he's really using his cutter more now than he has in previous years (it's kind of fluctuated season to season with an average of 14.1% usage compared to this season of 14.5), but what has changed is not really any usage of pitch, but the velocity of one particular pitch this season: his curve. your statement about not having a knockout curve any longer is dead on. now brooks has two curves, a "slow curve" and his standard curve, so i don't know how likely it is that a couple of pitches got mislabeled and screwed up the average, but we'll assume classification is fairly accurate.

since 2009 (including this season to date) his curve has had an average velocity of 76.75, but this season it's sitting at 73.6.

this seems significant to me, and looking the charts this has been a pretty steady trend. the value, or score, of his curve has followed a downward trend also going from a 3.85 in 2013 to a 0.58 this season.

indeed, the lack of dominance seems directly related to not having a killer curve.

yu_darvish.PNG

 

Is curveball velo correlated with efficacy? Would be more concerned if it was fastball velo.

 

He also doesn't throw the curveball very frequently -- only about 5% this year. 

 

I'm more concerned about the drop in slider(his main out pitch) whiff rate:

 

597be4044d052_darvishwhiffsslider.PNG.d20078d14991515a0c5952c413716dfa.PNG

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Well I can say when I watched him last start he had hitters in 2 strike counts and kept throwing the FB, didn't understand it. And his body language was kind of "meh".

 

Hope he gets traded to LAD and gets refocused and gets an "edge" going, hopefully a will to win and do what he's capable of.

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@Rabbit Maranville agreed.

what's causing the change in slider effectiveness? i won't post the graphs, but it appears that velocity along with horizontal and vertical movement are all pretty in line with career norms. some change, but at first glance no obvious correlation jumps out.

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2 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

@Rabbit Maranville agreed.

what's causing the change in slider effectiveness? i won't post the graphs, but it appears that velocity along with horizontal and vertical movement are all pretty in line with career norms. some change, but at first glance no obvious correlation jumps out.

 

Fascinating-- great point. He's even throwing it a higher percentage of the time in 2-strike and general pitcher counts, which you would expect to lead to an increase in whiff rates. 

 

Backing into a story: he's more predictable? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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2 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

of the two big names getting moved who you got... yu or sonny ros? fantasy wise

Yu went from hitter's park in AL to pitcher's park in NL.

Gray went from pitcher's park to hitter's park and stayed in the AL. 

 

If you had them close before, you gotta like Darvish more ROS. 

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1 minute ago, bradwatson said:

Yu easy. Value just went way up. Gray's value went down imo.

obviously... moving to the al east vs nl west.... but sonny throwing his best ball in his career and yu throwing his worst...

Edited by colepenhagen
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3 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

obviously... moving to the al east vs nl west.... but sonny throwing his best ball in his career and yu throwing his worst...

Talking like 1 month sample size. Give me Darvish. Ace ROS.

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1 minute ago, bradwatson said:

Talking like 1 month sample size. Give me Darvish. Ace ROS.

might want to check their careers... sonny just as good if not better... minus the pre inj yu k/9

(i already sent an offer of sonny for yu just because of move to NL but sonny has more positives than yu imo)

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2 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

might want to check their careers... sonny just as good if not better... minus the pre inj yu k/9

(i already sent an offer of sonny for yu just because of move to NL but sonny has more positives than yu imo)

Sonny just moved from one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball to one of the smaller Parks against some of the best teams. Again give me Darvish, and it's not close.

Edited by bradwatson
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Dodgers are 74-31 and by far the best team in baseball right now. Yu struggled in Texas and got no run support. Going to the Dodgers is a win on both fronts. A new home will do him good.

 

Darvish was 1-5 in last 11 starts despite having 7 QS. Worst case scenario, I see Darvish going 7-4 rest of season as a Dodger.

Edited by Pablo989
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