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Yu Darvish 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, bradwatson said:

Talking like 1 month sample size. Give me Darvish. Ace ROS.

 

Not even 1 month.  Like 1 game sample size.  I've posted this before, but Darvish was the 6th ranked SP in my league (using QS instead of Ws) prior to 5 days ago.  People are acting like he's been a train wreck for months.  Prior to that blowup, he'd gone 8, allowed 3 & Kd 12.  Where was all the "worst stretch of his career" talk then?

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25 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Not even 1 month.  Like 1 game sample size.  I've posted this before, but Darvish was the 6th ranked SP in my league (using QS instead of Ws) prior to 5 days ago.  People are acting like he's been a train wreck for months.  Prior to that blowup, he'd gone 8, allowed 3 & Kd 12.  Where was all the "worst stretch of his career" talk then?

last 30 days he has 7+ era almost 1.5 whip

 

and his numbers have been trending down each of last 4 years... then take into account how asian pitchers age in the mlb 

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5 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

last 30 days he has 7+ era almost 1.5 whip

 

and his numbers have been trending down each of last 4 years... then take into account how asian pitchers age in the mlb 

 

Yeah you're better off with someone like Sonny Gray. ;)

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5 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

last 30 days he has 7+ era almost 1.5 whip

 

and his numbers have been trending down each of last 4 years... then take into account how asian pitchers age in the mlb 

 

That's still 1 really bad start and 2 other "not good starts". Every other start he's had since beginning of June had been good.

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truth... outside kuroda they all   break... iwakuma and dice k most notably... tanaka and yu on the same path

14 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Yeah you're better off with someone like Sonny Gray. ;)

dont trust 5 10 sp throwing 95 to give me 200 plus inn either for multiple years 

Edited by colepenhagen
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Take the following into consideration...

 

Yu's LAST & ONLY bad road start this year was on April 18. He gave up 4 runs to Oakland. Yu Darvish has allowed 3 runs or less in 9/10 road starts despite facing CLE, KC, NY, HOU, TOR, and SEA on the road.

 

His last 4 home starts:

MIA 10 runs across 3.2 innings

LAA 2 runs over 7.1

BOS 7 runs over 4.1

SEA 5 runs over 5

 

In 2017 Darvish has a 2.5 road ERA in 10 road games. He has a 5.4 home ERA in 12 home games. His 2016 #s are similar. He tends to pitch best on the road.

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1 minute ago, Pablo989 said:

Take the following into consideration...

 

Yu's LAST & ONLY bad road start this year was on April 18. He gave up 4 runs to Oakland. Yu Darvish has allowed 3 runs or less in 9/10 road starts despite facing CLE, KC, NY, HOU, TOR, and SEA on the road.

 

His last 4 home starts:

MIA 10 runs across 3.2 innings

LAA 2 runs over 7.1

BOS 7 runs over 4.1

SEA 5 runs over 5

 

In 2017 Darvish has a 2.5 road ERA in 10 road games. He has a 5.4 home ERA in 12 home games. His 2016 #s are similar. He tends to pitch best on the road.

 

Good info.

 

His home stats might be moving in the right direction with the team/ballpark change.

 

And in general he gets to face more Pitchers now, which = more K's/Outs.

 

Let's go Yu!

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This is nothing but a major net gain for Yu's fantasy value:

 

Join a contender with a much better defense and bullpen in a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league (NL).

 

I'm expecting Max Scherzer esque numbers the remainder of the way. 

 

If some fantasy owner is caught up in Yu's 2017 #s, now is the time to pounce at a discount. BUY BUY BUY!

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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7 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

...I'm expecting Max Scherzer esque numbers the remainder of the way...

I think he'll be better. But wow, you might want to lower that bar a little, unless you're expecting Scherzer to run out of gas or something. 

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10 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

I think he'll be better. But wow, you might want to lower that bar a little, unless you're expecting Scherzer to run out of gas or something. 

 

Do you remember what Max Scherzer's numbers looked like when he was pitching in the AL ? 

 

Going to the NL with an auto-out instead of DH, and facing bad NYM, FLA, and ATL offenses several times a month did wonders for his numbers. 

 

I'm expecting a similar impact. 

 

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ok. Just saying. Expecting an improvement is one thing. Expecting to be on par with maybe the best pitcher in the world right now... that's a bit much.

I mean cmon. Even using your logic, Scherzer had already won the Cy Young with the Tigers when he came to the Nats. I just don't think it's a serious expectation/comparison. But we'll see.

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18 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

truth... outside kuroda they all   break... iwakuma and dice k most notably... tanaka and yu on the same path

dont trust 5 10 sp throwing 95 to give me 200 plus inn either for multiple years 

 

Good thing Yu's 6'5 then I guess.

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11 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Good thing Yu's 6'5 then I guess.

Not to get full racial, but Yu isn't even full Japanese either.  He's half Iranian and half Japanese.  He's not the typical Japanese type build that has shown tendency to break down.  With that said I expect improvement from Yu, but he isn't touching Max Scherzer numbers.

Edited by Cmilne23
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Just now, Cmilne23 said:

Not to get full racial, but Yu isn't even full Japanese either.  He's half Iranian and half Japanese.  He's not the typical Japanese type build that has shown tendency to break down.  With that said I expect improvement from Yu, but he isn't touching Max Scherzer numbers.

How did race get into this discussion. I am pretty sure there has been plenty of American pitchers that break down as well. Most recently we have seen with Kershaw, Thor, Matt Harvey, David Price, Degrom, Steven Strasburg just to name a few. looking at this list...rather than a race issue looks like it may be a Mets issue.

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1 minute ago, larfboy said:

How did race get into this discussion. I am pretty sure there has been plenty of American pitchers that break down as well. Most recently we have seen with Kershaw, Thor, Matt Harvey, David Price, Degrom, Steven Strasburg just to name a few. looking at this list...rather than a race issue looks like it may be a Mets issue.

I think it was because smaller stature Japanese arms have had relative short shelf lives in mlb.  And more so than that vicious falls from grace.  But you're right it's not really about race as plenty of pitchers fall to pieces.  But over the last 15 years or so we've seen the elite pitchers in Japan come over.  And the sample size has initially shown immediate success, followed by hitting the cliff.  I think that's what a poster above was alluding to when referencing worry of Darvish "breaking down." At least that's how I interpreted it.

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Instead of just anecdotal, unsupported, blanket statements, it might be interesting to see some actual stats on what % of white/black/latino pitchers run into injuries vs. the small sample size of Asian pitchers in MLB.

Then again no, that probably wouldn't be interesting at all. Just slightly less stupid.

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3 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Instead of just anecdotal, unsupported, blanket statements, it might be interesting to see some actual stats on what % of white/black/latino pitchers run into injuries vs. the small sample size of Asian pitchers in MLB.

Then again no, that probably wouldn't be interesting at all. Just slightly less stupid.

usually Asian pitchers have a lot of innings on their arm when they come over here. almost all of them get hurt. 

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I think the Japanese do tend to work their pitchers harder. I don't think Koreans do though. Tons of pitchers get hurt every year though.

My totally unsupported opinion is that it seems the same to me. I mean, I haven't heard of a bunch of pitchers in the japanese or korean leagues breaking down anymore than we do here. Obviously tons of pitchers go down in MLB every year and only a small fraction of those are Asian.

I guess my point is that there are so few of them that any time an Asian pitcher goes down it's very noticeable. But if Clayton Kershaw hits the DL, no one says wtf is up with white pitchers? since there are so many others. Similar for David Price or Chris Archer. Or Johnny Cueto.

Edited by Fiveohnine
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general thoughts on Yu before the trade:

-he has the talent and pitch-repertoire to be a top-5 pitcher

-his inconsistency (blow ups) keep him around the 10-15 range. 

-he is cool AF

-he pitches in a bandbox where a moderate fly ball to right field is in the bleachers

-if he pitched more aggressively and less cerebrally, he'd be utterly dominant. Pitches too "cute" for a guy with a 95mph heater and devastating breaking stuff. 

 

general thoughts on Yu after the trade:

-he now pitches for a great team in a pitchers park where that same fly ball is an out

-he finds himself surrounded by other excellent pitchers, with a good pitching coach

-he gets to pitch to other pitchers, and rarely to Designated Hitters

-he may be fired up/energized by the trade and tap into that focus/dominance that he displayed at Yankee Stadium in the Tanaka duel

-IIRC, his home stadium is now the setting of his famous WBC emergence when the world collectively saw him and thought "Holy **** who is THAT guy!?"

-His overall stock gets a notable boost-- though nothing is set in stone. For all we know, the new pressure of a larger Japanese market might turn his insides into spaghetti and make him pitch like a poor man's Josh Osich. 

-gut feeling though, is he turns it on down the stretch and becomes a beloved LA athlete 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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